Too-tight virus policy is strangling Thai economy, experts warn

[Grumpy John]

OK,  Wuhan China virus is on the radar but let's not forget swine flu has been developing in China over the last few years and now a reported case of Bubonic plague in Mongolia.  So later in the year I am predicting an outbreak of something new and still no effective vaccine for Wuhan China virus.  And the long shot is a trifecta of nasties  that will cause an even bigger panic.  My Chrystal ball is predicting some weeks before the US presidential election.   As a last resort the CCP may need to fall back on the old sniper in the click tower routine! ????

[JCauto]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

The answer to all is No, life goes on and there are others to take the place of those departed.

Oh, well then. Off you go. 

I presume as you're keen for everything to restart that you're going to be leading the charge to volunteer at the hospitals to help with the inevitable overflow.

Or not.

[Grusa]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Beer.

Beer cures everything.

Wrong. Whisky!

[Bangkok Barry]

14 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

27 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

On what basis do you say 30 million? Where is your source, or statistics? How do you arrive at that figure? And what does break even mean?

 

It was a wild a$$ guess, but based on things like cost/price/margin.

 

For example flights are rarely profitable with loads much below 85 %. Unless tourists swim here they'd have to fly on full planes. Which carrier, other than TG, will operate these at a loss.

 

Hotels are rarely profitable with occupancy rates much below 65%. 

 

See where I'm going here?

 

Breakeven means not losing money.

 

The Thai model worked because everything was bassed on volume.

 

People need to face facts: things are not going back to where they were here. A smattering of tourists isn't going to cut it. The sooner people adjust the better. Clinging to the old model will get you nowhere.

A wild guess. Thank you.

[Caldera]

I wholeheartedly agree with this article. Virus elimination is futile anyway and the cost of attempting it is outrageous.

 

Better to plan for a manageably low level of infections, as that will allow the economy (including tourism) to reboot. I think a good compromise would be to require a coronavirus test before travel plus health insurance. No silly Certificate of Entry, flight restrictions only from infection hotspots, no quarantine.

 

[dallen52]

It takes a long time to wake up to what everyone else is saying and thinking...

 

Next group should be retirement visa people locked out of the country. 

We are not tourists, we spend and support the economy and places we live. 

 

Then Open the door for some tourists. 

[ThailandRyan]

28 minutes ago, JCauto said:

Oh, well then. Off you go. 

I presume as you're keen for everything to restart that you're going to be leading the charge to volunteer at the hospitals to help with the inevitable overflow.

Or not.

You obviously have me confused with someone who brought my way of life from the US here and imposes my rights and beliefs on the Thai people.  Far from it.  Families here have always adapted when someone moves on from this world and have others to depend on for childcare so they can continue working when the time comes. The values folks grew up with in there own country are not of any value here except maybe to themselves.  If someone wants to live here the way they lived back whence they came then more power to them.  However, heartache and misery go hand in hand when you decide to think that your culture is more important than the culture where you now live.  A restart is necessary, and albeit others want it fully open, there is a proper and sustainable way of doing things to ensure safety and security go hand in hand.  The biggest issue is that as they continue to espouse the No domestic cases in 50 days and so on, all they are doing is creating complacency upon the people who start to believe there is no way there is any Covid here.  My family here wears masks when we go out.  We avoid clustered and crowded areas to the best of our ability and choose where we eat based upon being able to sit where others are not jammed in.  The GF's Salon she owns will not allow in more than a few people for an appointment at a time and constant cleaning and sanitizing goes on.  

Edited July 17, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Kadilo]

2 hours ago, onekoolguy said:

. It does seem a little unnecessary when there has not been a case in the general population for 50 days?

They have even got the foreigners spouting it now. Amazingly well drilled machine. 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Kadilo

[chilli42]

6 hours ago, CLS said:

Only the urge to make money will bring them to reason.
But Thais have been brainwashed for 4 months and the evil foreigner was made a scapegoat for their misery. What will it take to reverse this process?

Same as always, money

[tigerfeet]

6 hours ago, CLS said:

Only the urge to make money will bring them to reason.
But Thais have been brainwashed for 4 months and the evil foreigner was made a scapegoat for their misery. What will it take to reverse this process?

Plus the virus is not affected by cold or hot conditions .the fact that people die in small villages or small towns without the need for a port mortom the figures they give out mean nothing.

[DaftToPutRealName]

3 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

Compared to the performance of other countries there seems to be more consistency and decisiveness under the 'military'.

 

 

Perhaps a coup in the UK would have resulted in less than 45,000 deaths.

 

 

(I certainly couldn't envisage Prayuth allowing Shamima Begum back in)

Plenty to be said about bleeding hearts in the West - an overly empathetic culture that self-corrects albeit at the cost of its own destruction.

I'd love a benevolent dictatorship; democracy is only as great as its dumbest voter - which is probably why the original concept required skin in the game through land ownership, business and economic investment and education. Fat bit of good it will do when for every informed voter there are 10 twitter morons to cancel it out.

Mind you, Prayut and Co 4.0 is probably still a step back.

[DaftToPutRealName]

10 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

They have even got the foreigners spouting it now. Amazing well drilled machine. 

They've learned a lot from China. 

Next step - a dedicated Twitter account!

[DaftToPutRealName]

16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You obviously have me confused with someone who brought my way of life from the US here and imposes my rights and beliefs on the Thai people.  Far from it.  Families here have always adapted when someone moves on from this world and have others to depend on for childcare so they can continue working when the time comes. The values folks grew up with in there own country are not of any value here except maybe to themselves.  If someone wants to live here the way they lived back whence they came then more power to them.  However, heartache and misery go hand in hand when you decide to think that your culture is more important than the culture where you now live.  A restart is necessary, and albeit others want it fully open, there is a proper and sustainable way of doing things to ensure safety and security go hand in hand.  The biggest issue is that as they continue to espouse the No domestic cases in 50 days and so on, all they are doing is creating complacency upon the people who start to believe there is no way there is any Covid here.  My family here wears masks when we go out.  We avoid clustered and crowded areas to the best of our ability and choose where we eat based upon being able to sit where others are not jammed in.  The GF's Salon she owns will not allow in more than a few people for an appointment at a time and constant cleaning and sanitizing goes on.  

 

Exactly - for as many uneducated "salim" ready to let the dinosaurs eat at the trough, there are plenty of Thai people wondering why they have to lose their livelihood when there hasn't been any local transmission in nearly 2 months.

Meanwhile the Gov continues to push the emergency decree and lots of concern coming from Health workers. Either it's a mix of a power play and another excuse to plaster their face all over the media for accolades and another medal, or there is more going on than what is being given out publicly.

But, suffice to say, there are plenty of people here who can see the hypocrisy of saying extreme measures are needed even if that costs you your livelihood, whilst at the same time saying Thailand is #1 and haha look at the USA (and also, China is cleaner than a whistle).

[AhFarangJa]

1 hour ago, JCauto said:

Will they get tired of being on ventilators? Will they get tired of raising their kids in a single-parent family? Will they get tired when Gramps and Grandma aren't around to provide free day care for their kids?

Well, when you look at the road death statistics........560 at the roadside this month alone, and the fact that the average Thai completely ignores all road rules and regulations that have been in force for decades, then I look at your argument, I think that I can say with a reasonable amount of certainty, that no, they will not get tired of relatives not being around, or living in single parent environments.

[AhFarangJa]

1 hour ago, Starmocihc said:

Just wait how "tired of the rules and regs" they get when the economic tide comes in, should they continue on their current path. 

I completely agree, but it does not seem to phase a lot of people. It does seem as if apathy is creeping in, much like it did on the roads here, as per my post above.

Edited July 17, 2020 by AhFarangJa

[TigerandDog]

"Thais know now how to protect themselves as almost everyone wears a face mask in public."

 

This part of his statement is absolute rubbish. The ONLY time Thais are wearing masks is when they have to go into shopping malls etc. Away from those and in their own villages social distancing and mask wearing is non-existent. They continue to live as they always have with no concern about the affect their complacency has on others.

[Anton9]

15 minutes ago, TigerandDog said:

"Thais know now how to protect themselves as almost everyone wears a face mask in public."

 

This part of his statement is absolute rubbish. The ONLY time Thais are wearing masks is when they have to go into shopping malls etc. Away from those and in their own villages social distancing and mask wearing is non-existent. They continue to live as they always have with no concern about the affect their complacency has on others.

What complacency?There's obviously no virus in Thailand,are you suggesting them to wear mask until 2054?

 

[Moo 2]

It's all politically nice to want to protect and stop the Virus from killing people,

on the other side there are people that have lost everything and no future ahead.

How many have already taken their own life? Does the government keeps tab on this? 

[poskat]

lockdowns et al. were never meant to eradicate the virus, thats why they were called mitigation efforts.

short of a fully effective vaccine or treatment, there will always be some virus floating around.

 

for whatever reason, thailand have much of a public health problem with the virus so far, based on the less than 1 death per million data.

 

this reality needs to be understood, covid is not the plague, and treating it as such is devastating to millions of thais economically.

 

the current lack of the virus here does not, however, mean that people from countries that are experiencing high levels of the virus should be able to come here.

 

the government dropping the mask requirements in the BTS/MRT and businesses would be the best way to strart to return to normal

[JusticeGB]

4 hours ago, rtco said:

since the first wave of Covid-19 is generating far fewer cases compared with other countries,

Figures are low because Thailand doesn't test many people. Hospitals don't have many testing kits. A friend of mine went to a Government Hospital with a bad cold and a temperature of 39 centigrade. He was given some codeine and asked to sign a form confirming that he didn't have covid19. He asked for a covid19 test and was told the hospital had no test kits!

[Sambotte]

Good to see someone wake up.

Niwes Hemvachiravarakorn

It's not only about the "economics", it's thousands of Thaïs people whose business will definitely close if a few more month of extreme reaction continue, thousands have already lost a job, and thousands were making money directly (no official business but a lot here) with farangs.

It's way more than 20% gdsomething in real, and it's a huge psychological impact.

And to say it again : for a single virus, human body deal with virus since millions years, and there are many other biger problems : pollutions, traffic accident, etc.

Thailand has reacted in panic mode, with nonsense, but hey, what has the entire world done ? Same-same insane, but hopefully different ?...

[casey1]

4 hours ago, Yinn said:

Most Thai people not want foreigner come thailand now. 

Especilally foreigner from countrys refuse mask, selfish. 

Up to us. 

 

Be stupid allow that. 

Money not important when you dead. 

 

Control covid= Welcome to Thailand. 

 

Eg Trump think “open” before control be good for economy. 

He wrong. Control covid THEN open economy. 

 

I not want foreigner come thailand now. Most people same. 

Sorry.

Up to us. 

 

Best thing can can happen for Thai economy is= other country’s control there covid. 

 

Situation not improve. It unimprove now. 

No thankyou. 

 

 

 

 

so Thai =foreigner coming back because you know Thailand closed for long time for foreigner come, only Thai come home and bring covid.....so your solution is ban Thai from come home?????

[Saint Nick]

4 hours ago, Yinn said:

Most Thai people not want foreigner come thailand now. 

Especilally foreigner from countrys refuse mask, selfish. 

Up to us. 

 

Be stupid allow that. 

Money not important when you dead. 

 

Control covid= Welcome to Thailand. 

 

Eg Trump think “open” before control be good for economy. 

He wrong. Control covid THEN open economy. 

 

I not want foreigner come thailand now. Most people same. 

Sorry.

Up to us. 

 

Best thing can can happen for Thai economy is= other country’s control there covid. 

 

Situation not improve. It unimprove now. 

No thankyou. 

 

 

 

 

...and I am sure, you will find a sponsor for all those in the tourism business, out of work...right?!

[DrTuner]

Sure, but now it's become a face issue, gotta keep up that zero appearance, a despicable cultural flaw more important than life itself, and a handy excuse to get rid of dissidents and protests.

 

Let 'em eat cake. And Thais will simply take it.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, DaftToPutRealName said:

Plenty to be said about bleeding hearts in the West - an overly empathetic culture that self-corrects albeit at the cost of its own destruction.

I'd love a benevolent dictatorship; democracy is only as great as its dumbest voter - which is probably why the original concept required skin in the game through land ownership, business and economic investment and education. Fat bit of good it will do when for every informed voter there are 10 twitter morons to cancel it out.

Mind you, Prayut and Co 4.0 is probably still a step back.

The reason benevolent dictatorships don't work is the benevolence goes out the window at the first taste of power. Many here cheered for Prayuth right after the coup, too.

 

True direct democracy has never been tried. The representative model is deeply flawed. 24/7 online voting for any issue is what we'd want.

 

Thais tend to "vote" with disregarding rules they don't happen to like. It's just a matter of time before envelopes change hands and the borders start to leak.

 

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, Expat Tom said:

'You Shall Reap What you Sow". After the coup (the latest one) the Junta was angry at the West for justified criticism so the "Generals" decided to cozy up to Big Brother to the north. They were offer some toys and boys always like toys. Exactly how long would the "Toy" Submarines last if Thailand chose to side with China against the West....somewhere between 2 and 3 hours.

 

So, the "Generals" hitched their dreams to the Yellow Star of the North and grew an economy overly dependant on 10,000,000 Chinese tourists per year. The Hoards from the North, like a plague of locust, polluted the air, disrespected Thai people, consumed resources and strained the infrastructure out of proportion to their economic contribution.

 

So, the brilliant generals have produced the worst performing economy in the region.   

 

The people of Thailand truly deserve better.

Brilliant summary of recent events. I would like to add a detail but forum rules prevent.

[Ireland32]

6 hours ago, AhFarangJa said:

Certainly not the case here in Hua Hin. Last night at least 90% of Thais were walking along without masks, only putting them on when they had to enter any premises. As for social distancing, lots of local restaurants with eight round a table all eating from the same four dishes on the table. I think everyone is getting tired of the rules and restrictions. 

Malls everyone around the chin , noses exposed all over 

[RichardColeman]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Meanwhile, foreign tourists will not be allowed back into the country until September, according to the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration.

and then October, and then November, and then December and then Songkran 2021 and then .....it wont matter as all the tourist industry has gone

[Anton9]

So many paranoid farangs here

40 minutes ago, Ireland32 said:

Malls everyone around the chin , noses exposed all over 

Scary mak mak

[Xaos]

Covid19 is an hoax