UK risks twice-as-big second COVID wave without better testing, study finds

[snoop1130]

UK risks twice-as-big second COVID wave without better testing, study finds

 

Shoppers walk past social distancing signs at the Covent Garden shopping and dining district, amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in London, Britain, August 2, 2020. REUTERS/Toby Melville

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain faces a second wave of COVID-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday.

 

Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modelled the impact of reopening schools either on a full- or part-time basis, thus allowing parents to return to work, on the potential spread of the virus.

 

They concluded a second wave could be prevented if 75% of those with symptoms were found and tested and 68% of their contacts were traced, or if 87% of people with symptoms were found and 40% of their contacts tested.

 

"However, we also predict that in the absence of sufficiently broad test–trace–isolate coverage, reopening of schools combined with accompanied reopening of society across all scenarios might induce a second COVID-19 wave," said the study, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health.

 

"Our modelling results suggest that full school reopening in September 2020 without an effective test-trace-isolate strategy would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections that would peak in December 2020 and be 2.0-2·3 times the size of the original COVID-19 wave."

 

The lead author of the study, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, said the test-and-trace system in England was currently reaching only about 50% of contacts of all those testing positive for COVID-19.

 

Panovska-Griffiths, lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.

 

"Importantly, what we find is that it is possible to avoid a second epidemic wave if enough people with symptomatic infections can be diagnosed. Their contacts can then be traced and effectively isolated," she said.

 

"We are the first study that has quantified this, how much this needs to be for the UK."

 

Schools in Britain closed in March during the national lockdown, except for the children of key workers, and reopened for a small number of pupils in June.

 

However, the government says all pupils will return to school across the United Kingdom by early September with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying it is a national priority.

 

"I think we all accept that test-and-trace is a programme which needs to continue to improve. There is total humility in government about that," junior local government minister Simon Clarke told BBC radio.

 

"We fully accept that we need to keep driving those numbers up," he said.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-08-04

 

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[johng]

Even more scare mongering than the bloody brexit debacle !

[ukrules]

11 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Panovska-Griffiths, lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.

Worst case scenarios are always avoided, simply because they never happen.

 

This article is complete and utter garbage, a kind of hysteria.

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, ukrules said:

Worst case scenarios are always avoided, simply because they never happen.

 

This article is complete and utter garbage, a kind of hysteria.

 

Mathematicians need to do their maths and justify their positions in this pandemic. A published study does this nicely

[from the home of CC]

they never extinguished the first fire which has rekindled and now is ablaze in a pub near you..

[CGW]

All the institutions that have been funded for years like the Oxford Institute and many other major "universities are now justifying their funding and high salaries!

Social engineering 101, now we know what the Bilderberg's and other "groups have been discussing all these years & we thought they were just meeting for a cup of tea and a chat!

Sure our Messiah Kill Bill Gates has all the answers, medical professionals are not allowed an opinion and are deleted from the news, you need to be an Elite billionaire to tell us how to proceed on our quest for a dystopian planet 

[RichardColeman]

 

7 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Worst case scenarios are always avoided, simply because they never happen. This article is complete and utter garbage, a kind of hysteria.

 

100% agree - with 353,000 people born every day and 153,000 deaths every day, the 4-7000 deaths worldwide hardly makes a dent in the 200,000 additions to the planet

[Bluespunk]

49 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Panovska-Griffiths, lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.

 

"Importantly, what we find is that it is possible to avoid a second epidemic wave if enough people with symptomatic infections can be diagnosed. Their contacts can then be traced and effectively isolated," she said.

 

"We are the first study that has quantified this, how much this needs to be for the UK."

Let’s hope the govt studies these findings and takes the recommendations on board. 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Bluespunk

[Matzzon]

See, almost all the posts above is trying to dismiss the fact that UK is badly hit by Covid because of poor handling of the situation. I am pretty sure you posters are the quickest ones when it comes to doubt and talk Sh*T about Thailands success. 

See, better to look at the homefront and complain on your owns. 

[DrTuner]

50% is too little. The only way to get it going is to embed it in the operating systems of mobile phones. And then we're right on path to a global police state. 

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e

 

I think I'd rather take the death toll than lose liberties. Getting lost liberties back is always a bloody affair, likely causing more deaths than people were trying to avoid.

Edited August 4, 2020 by DrTuner

[Stargeezr]

Yet in the USA, their leaders claims it is under control, with the numbers of infected and dead or dying, Trump is getting ridiculous. UK, be cautious and do not listen to the experts on this forum.

Geezer

[Bender Rodriguez]

is there no money to inform the people , to keep old sick people INSIDE in isolation

 

and the rest will do just fine

[Bkk Brian]

No study was needed for common sense.

 

Kids do spread the virus and can bring it back to primary care givers be that parents or grandparents

 

So:

 

"Ensure there is no intense transmission of the virus at community level

 

We have to do everything possible to bring our children back to school and the most effective thing we can do is to stop the virus at community level. If we do that we can open schools."

 

Paraphrased from a Q&A session with Dr Mike Ryan

[RichardColeman]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Britain faces a second wave of COVID-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday.

Just like to point out that if ANY country DOES more testing they will get a second wave of positives !

[Thingamabob]

20 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

Let’s hope the govt studies these findings and takes the recommendations on board. 

I sincerely hope not. What a load of rubbish. A 10 year old could have done better.

[Bluespunk]

30 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

I sincerely hope not. What a load of rubbish. A 10 year old could have done better.

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel safer. 

[dunroaming]

Thank goodness for all the TV experts to keep us so well informed. ????