Corona and the immediate future of the Thai Baht

[DaweiBeach]

What are people's opinion on the strength of the Baht over the next months? So far Baht hasn't lost much value compared to the Euro and USD but with the boarders staying closed and no tourism anytime soon it seems like the Baht is due for a major dip. Combined with the political turmoil that seems almost certain once the economic fallout gets more and more obvious I smelll a good investment opportunity.  

[Maestro]

I. moving this topic from the Covid-19 forum to the forum "Jobs, economy, banking, business, investments"

[cmarshall]

So far the baht has strengthened against USD since the outbreak of corona despite the decline of tourism and exports.  Why would that change as long as the epidemic continues?

 

[bartender100]

No change, maybe even get stronger, western economies will be in worse shape than Thailand when the bills come in for covid

[uli65]

no bills ever will come in, it is just printed phony money.

[allanos]

It is not Baht strength so much, as US Dollar weakness. If the dollar's slide continues, which, in my opinion it will, based on the coming inflationary aspect from all of the Fed money-printing which has taken place, and which is likely to continue until after the November elections, then the Baht should strengthen slightly more than at present.  

[natway09]

Just remember most of the "big countries" have made more of a mess of Covid than Thaiiland has

Crops are still growing, export although still down is still billions a month & imports have shrunk helping BOP

[tomazbodner]

14 hours ago, DaweiBeach said:

So far Baht hasn't lost much value compared to the Euro and USD

What would "lost much value" compared to EUR be for you?

 

1 year, from 33 to 37....

[JusticeGB]

Apart from gold most exports are down. The fantasy Phuket 5T plan has caused Thai people to cancel bookings in August although the plan won't start until September at earliest. Pattaya has seen about 50% of the better restaurants closed down probably forever. The hotel market is suffering badly as Thai people only come at weekends. I see the Thai economy about to actually take a big hit soon. The covid19 cases maybe low but the real jobless rate is very high. The gap between the rich and poor is growing exponentially. The students are beginning to get support for their views. It will be more than 2 years before the tourists come back. I don't think that the baht can remain strong with all these headwinds. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by JusticeGB
Quantifying the number of restaurants likely to have been closed down

[khunjeff]

If anyone knew in advance how any market would move, they would be fantastically wealthy and would stop reading topics like this on ThaiVisa.

[NightSky]

7 hours ago, uli65 said:

no bills ever will come in, it is just printed phony money.

Unfortunately, today the UK papers report the chancellor is looking to recoup 30 billion covid pounds by increasing taxes.

 

Someone has to cough up that 'phony money' to pay for the freebies recently handed out and its looking like mr tax payer will foot the bill.

 

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by NightSky

[rumak]

7 hours ago, uli65 said:

no bills ever will come in, it is just printed phony money.

YESSSSSS !     someone else in this thaivisa universe actually  understands this.

 

I was with a group of "friends" about 20 years ago,  in a house just outside of Chiangmai.  I may have been the only american , mostly europeans .  At that time the US deficit was a subject of speculation just as it should be today.    It was the common opinion of those there that the dollar was going to go to hell,  and probably be replaced as the world currency as well.  

I am no economist,  but i thought, and said,    I don't think so.   No matter how ridiculous it all seems

(the manufacture of money out of thin air)......... the US is the biggest bully in the world and i don't think they are going to lose that title,  or be punished by their "crazy debt"

Only difference now :    the debt is in the trillions instead of the billions .    and still there are the same pundits predicting the downfall of the evil empire.    I still doubt it.  

[rumak]

16 minutes ago, khunjeff said:

If anyone knew in advance how any market would move, they would be fantastically wealthy and would stop reading topics like this on ThaiVisa.

Rumak here.   Ru Mak.    i know how the market will move.   When i buy, it goes down.  So when i buy i always SELL twice as much as when i buy.    And when i sell, it always goes up.   So i always buy twice as much as what i sold.   If you follow this simple strategy  you too can be fantastically wealthy. 

Sure wish i had rich parents that loved me like some of you guys ................

[Isaan sailor]

The strengthening Baht makes no sense.  Why would currency traders buy Baht?  Do they really think the economy’s humming? That’s certainly not the case.

[baansgr]

22 minutes ago, NightSky said:

Unfortunately, today the UK papers report the chancellor is looking to recoup 30 billion covid pounds by increasing taxes.

 

Someone has to cough up that 'phony money' to pay for the freebies recently handed out and its looking like mr tax payer will foot the bill.

 

 

That's not even 2 years of foreign aid...why not stop that nonsense....add on the 4 billion just spent on contracts for housing asylum seekers, not to mention the 10s of billions keeping them....could easily get through this mess if got priorities right....I don't see what help yoga classes in Nepal are to the economy.

[Brunolem]

13 minutes ago, rumak said:

  and still there are the same pundits predicting the downfall of the evil empire.    I still doubt it.  

It is falling as we speak...or rather, write...

[Brunolem]

6 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

The strengthening Baht makes no sense.  Why would currency traders buy Baht?  Do they really think the economy’s humming? That’s certainly not the case.

It makes sense.

 

Slightly positive interest rates in Thailand against mostly negative interest rates in the West...

 

[Peterw42]

8 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

The strengthening Baht makes no sense.  Why would currency traders buy Baht?  Do they really think the economy’s humming? That’s certainly not the case.

As others have said, its not the Baht streghthening its the other currencies weakening.

The US is basically printing money and that eventually weakens a currency.

Edited August 31, 2020 by Peterw42

[rumak]

well,  i will be sure to get back with you pundits here in 10 years time.

 

till then a one baht move here or there does not a movement make.

 

now when the aussie goes from 30 to 23     or the pound from 50 down to 40    that is a move

(i'm being kind as i did not take the high nor the low over that ten year period)

 

in that same time the US dollar was mostly between 31 and 33   .

 

anyway,  don't need to convince me.   I told my 20 year story already.   If you are "sure" about what

will happen then you should be rich in not too distant a future.   good luck to all

 

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by rumak

[shackleton]

If any one is hoping  for the Pound sterling to strengthen  against the Thai Baht  ie the days of 50 plus  is going to be most  unhappy

Cant see it happening if anything  more chance of it going lower as we get closer to Brexit

[RocketDog]

8 hours ago, uli65 said:

no bills ever will come in, it is just printed phony money.

Agreed.

So at some point the only clue most Americans will have that the dollar is weakening is rising costs on everything. Still, Americans have been slowly conditioned to believe prices should always go up so won't connect the dots. America dismissed the concept of a stable currency decades ago when Reagan took office. 

 

Other countries will notice however and  devalue the dollar accordingly. When Americans travel or buy foreign goods they will decry such foreigners as greedy, never understanding that their own politicians/bankers/business leaders have sold them down the river for nearly a hundred years since the Federal Reserve was born in a smoky room one night on Jekeyll Island off the coast of Georgia. The Fed announced quietly last week that despite rising inflation they will hold interest rates near zero. It's only a matter of time before they go negative! 

 

I've been moving cash out of America for years now. 

[NoshowJones]

1 hour ago, NightSky said:

Unfortunately, today the UK papers report the chancellor is looking to recoup 30 billion covid pounds by increasing taxes.

 

Someone has to cough up that 'phony money' to pay for the freebies recently handed out and its looking like mr tax payer will foot the bill.

 

 

No chance of the UK cutting back on overseas aid then, and what about all the benefits and hotel rooms for all the migrants arriving in their dinghys every day?.

Sorry for going on about this in a Thai forum, but I couldn't resist it.

[Chivas]

Foreign Currency Reserves at record levels having grown another $30 Billion since February now topping $250 Billion in total and now the 8th highest in the World

 

Baht is completely unmoved against the Benchmark USD and thats absolutely no surprise to me

[Stevemercer]

Nothing much will happen until after the US elections in November.

[Chivas]

1 minute ago, Stevemercer said:

Nothing much will happen until after the US elections in November.

If you somehow think the Baht will weaken against the USD then think again in relation to any election.

Biden wins and every chance Baht will dip sub 30 again

[Stevemercer]

14 minutes ago, Chivas said:

If you somehow think the Baht will weaken against the USD then think again in relation to any election.

Biden wins and every chance Baht will dip sub 30 again

 

But if Trump wins, and continues his phony war with China, countries will be increasingly forced to pick between the two. China may eventually be forced off the US standard in world trading. Thailand will go with the Chinese Yuan-weighted trading block. China will pump the Baht up against the US dollar.

[Brunolem]

49 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

The Fed announced quietly last week that despite rising inflation they will hold interest rates near zero. It's only a matter of time before they go negative! 

In fact, real interest rates (taking inflation into account) are already negative. 

 

But they will go even lower because  the government can't pay any interest on its mountain of debt, as it is already saddled with multi trillion budget deficits. 

[farangkinok]

1 hour ago, RocketDog said:

Agreed.

So at some point the only clue most Americans will have that the dollar is weakening is rising costs on everything. Still, Americans have been slowly conditioned to believe prices should always go up so won't connect the dots. America dismissed the concept of a stable currency decades ago when Reagan took office. 

 

Other countries will notice however and  devalue the dollar accordingly. When Americans travel or buy foreign goods they will decry such foreigners as greedy, never understanding that their own politicians/bankers/business leaders have sold them down the river for nearly a hundred years since the Federal Reserve was born in a smoky room one night on Jekeyll Island off the coast of Georgia. The Fed announced quietly last week that despite rising inflation they will hold interest rates near zero. It's only a matter of time before they go negative! 

 

I've been moving cash out of America for years now. 

Why blame Reagan? Nixon ended the convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971, long before Reagan was elected. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by farangkinok

[RocketDog]

2 minutes ago, farangkinok said:

 

 

Why blame Reagan? Nixon ended the convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971, long before Reagan was elected. 

What Nixon did just paved the way to print money endlessly, abandoning the Bretton - Woods agreement with the rest of the world. Since then America has been spending money that devalues what other nations have held as reserve currency. 

 

Reagan was the one who started the national debt rising. Look at just about any economic chart of any consequence and you see the exponential rise starting in 1980.  Every president since then except Clinton has increased debt but Trump is really breaking the record in annual deficits. 

 

There is no plan whatsoever for decreasing the debt and the average American believes there is no reason to do so. Unfortunately ignorance of the basic law of prosperity is no excuse. 

Produce more than you consume or you're borrowing money you can't repay. 

[Max69xl]

12 hours ago, bartender100 said:

No change, maybe even get stronger, western economies will be in worse shape than Thailand when the bills come in for covid

That's not true, but Thailand have quite a lot of foreign currency stashed away. Economy-wise it's maybe the worst period in modern times.