Bank of Thailand Debt Moratorium Scheme Ended

[Leaver]

On 10/19/2020 at 8:06 AM, robblok said:

Lets have a bet 

@Leaver

@Banana7

 

Let put  years time frame here. I say that the guaranteed amounts will always be paid back even if a bank goes under.

 

If I win you guys stop posting those sky is falling stories and find a new hobby. If it fails ill be stopping possitive and be like you guys putting Thailand down at every turn ?

Seems to me you are already having a bet.  A bet on Thai banks and the deposit guarantee.

 

I only more living expenses to Thailand on a  monthly basis, and pay an agent, so no 800k baht for the year needed.  This is all by choice.  

 

No need to bet against me when you have already placed your bet.  Good luck with it, but I am already a winner no matter what happens in Thailand as I have nothing to lose here.   

[Leaver]

On 10/20/2020 at 12:20 PM, Barnabe said:

I think it's unfair to call Thailand third world, I think it's more "second world"

When it comes to the security of my money, any country that is not a developed nation may as well be a 3rd World Country.   

 

Whether 2nd World or 3rd World, it falls short of the requirements for me.    

[Leaver]

On 10/19/2020 at 9:10 AM, Brunolem said:

Have you heard about banks going under in Africa, in South America (Argentina is in perpetual financial crisis, not to mention Venezuela), in the Middle East (Irak, Iran, Libya, Syria...)?

 

What makes you think that Thailand is in worse financial shape than these places?

 

Do you have money in the countries mentioned?

 

Why not compare Thailand to the UK, USA, EU etc? 

 

It's not about being in worse shape, it's about not being in as good shape as many foreigner's home countries when entrusting banks with their life savings.    

[Leaver]

On 10/19/2020 at 9:22 AM, robblok said:

Its not even emotions its wishful thinking that Thailand will crash and the baht will fall. Expats have been predicting this ever since their own currency went down. Sure I want back to the good old days. Only i let logic and facts rule not my dream of having 30-40% more income.

I am not hoping the baht collapses, for my personal benefit.  merely point out that many here have substantial funds in Thai banks, mainly only to qualify for a visa, and those funds are now at considerable risk.   

[robblok]

14 hours ago, Leaver said:

I am not hoping the baht collapses, for my personal benefit.  merely point out that many here have substantial funds in Thai banks, mainly only to qualify for a visa, and those funds are now at considerable risk.   

Your a funny guy only if your over a certain limit a million or so will you have a problem its all guaranteed. Thailand has never defaulted on bank accounts never.. not even in 1997. Sure if you have a lot spread it over banks. So you stay under the limit.

[Barnabe]

15 hours ago, Leaver said:

When it comes to the security of my money, any country that is not a developed nation may as well be a 3rd World Country.   

 

Whether 2nd World or 3rd World, it falls short of the requirements for me.    

No one is saying that your scenario is impossible, but you’re way too pessimistic.

 

Let’s be honest, what are the chances of all of this happening at the same time:

 

1) systemic failure of the banking system

2) deposit insurance being unable to cope

3) depositors taking a haircut

 

Very unlikely IMO. 
 

I also believe you’re over estimating the impact of the current crisis. It will be deeper than anyone predicted but recovery will be fast once the virus is gone. 
 

The worst case economic scenario is Japanification of the economy, and I think that’s more likely to happen in Europe of all places.

[Barnabe]

Add to the above between 3 and 4:

- BoT not stepping in and bailing out the banks

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, robblok said:

Your a funny guy only if your over a certain limit a million or so will you have a problem its all guaranteed.

There's no guarantee the institutions guaranteeing the deposits will not fail also.  This Is Thailand.  

 

11 hours ago, robblok said:

Sure if you have a lot spread it over banks. So you stay under the limit.

So, you play Russian roulette with the Thai banks, with your money.  Good luck with that.  Probably better odds at a casino.    

 

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, Barnabe said:

No one is saying that your scenario is impossible, but you’re way too pessimistic.

Or way too realistic.

 

10 hours ago, Barnabe said:

Let’s be honest, what are the chances of all of this happening at the same time:

They don't all have to happen at the same time, just happen to the financial institution that is holding your money.  

 

10 hours ago, Barnabe said:

1) systemic failure of the banking system

2) deposit insurance being unable to cope

3) depositors taking a haircut

1)  doesn't have to be, for you to lose your money, or access to your money.

 

2)  a definite possibility.

 

3)  a haircut or bail-in is definitely a possibility.  I doubt the Thai government will offer any bail outs. 

 

10 hours ago, Barnabe said:

I also believe you’re over estimating the impact of the current crisis. It will be deeper than anyone predicted but recovery will be fast once the virus is gone. 
 

Really? 

 

I'm thinking 2 years after a vaccine is distributed, worldwide, will Thailand get back to pre Covid normal.  

 

How do you see it?

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, Barnabe said:

Add to the above between 3 and 4:

- BoT not stepping in and bailing out the banks

If you are considering your 1, 2, 3, and now 4, are even possible, why risk your money here?  

 

The writing is on the wall. 

 

What data would it take for you to take action?     

[Barnabe]

The 4 events described run in sequence. As you go down the list, the possibility of each even happening becomes less and less likely. 
 

You’re talking about a systemic failure in the banking system, where the current schemes fail to work and the government does not step in.

 

In reality how likely is that?
 

The Thai government has excellent credit and the THB is viewed as a safe haven in SE Asia.

Why would the government risk that hard earned credibility when they can just turn on the presses and print money until the problem goes away like everyone else is doing in the “first world”?

[robblok]

57 minutes ago, Leaver said:

There's no guarantee the institutions guaranteeing the deposits will not fail also.  This Is Thailand.  

 

So, you play Russian roulette with the Thai banks, with your money.  Good luck with that.  Probably better odds at a casino.    

 

Like i said even in 1997 they did not default and that was worse your nothing more then a fear monger.

 

People like you are always moaning about Thailand but forget about facts. Thai banks have not defaulted before and the crisis was worse.

 

Maybe add some facts in your Thaibashing.

[Leaver]

7 minutes ago, robblok said:

Like i said even in 1997 they did not default and that was worse your nothing more then a fear monger.

 

People like you are always moaning about Thailand but forget about facts. Thai banks have not defaulted before and the crisis was worse.

 

Maybe add some facts in your Thaibashing.

I am not Thai bashing.  It's pure data analysis and then opinion.  No need to take it personally.

 

1997 was 23 years ago.

 

Why do you say 1997 was worse?  We ae nowhere near the end of the financial fall out from Covid, globally, and within Thailand.

 

Do you have any data that suggests 1997 will be worse than the Covid crisis?    

 

[robblok]

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

I am not Thai bashing.  It's pure data analysis and then opinion.  No need to take it personally.

 

1997 was 23 years ago.

 

Why do you say 1997 was worse?  We ae nowhere near the end of the financial fall out from Covid, globally, and within Thailand.

 

Do you have any data that suggests 1997 will be worse than the Covid crisis?    

 

Yes I have data that suggest it if you look at GDP contractions. It just shows you that your full of it. 

 

https://www.thebigchilli.com/feature-stories/the-tom-yum-kung-financial-crisis-that-shocked-the-world-and-ended-thailands-status-as-an-asian-tiger-economy

 

Here have a read how bad it was then and banks still kept going. The money was still protected. 

 

You do know that the UK its GDP is shrinking more then Thailand (leaver so i assume your from the UK). So why don't you moan about the collapse of the banks in the UK. 

 

What I am thinking about guys like you is that you got little education about how finances and economics work but a big opinion based on a lot of bias. You said by comparing it to a casino that there was more then 50% chance of losing your money at a Thai bank.. or were you overstating ? 

 

I love to have a bet with people like you too bad its not legal or enforceable. But i would love to bet that money is safe for at least this year if you stay under the guaranteed amount. 

[Henryford]

On 10/16/2020 at 7:18 PM, Leaver said:

Worried, no.  

 

Concerned, yes.

 

Get your money out while it's still there to get.  

And how do i get my visa without the 800k in the bank

[Barnabe]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

Yes I have data that suggest it if you look at GDP contractions. It just shows you that your full of it. 

 

https://www.thebigchilli.com/feature-stories/the-tom-yum-kung-financial-crisis-that-shocked-the-world-and-ended-thailands-status-as-an-asian-tiger-economy

 

Here have a read how bad it was then and banks still kept going. The money was still protected. 

 

You do know that the UK its GDP is shrinking more then Thailand (leaver so i assume your from the UK). So why don't you moan about the collapse of the banks in the UK. 

 

What I am thinking about guys like you is that you got little education about how finances and economics work but a big opinion based on a lot of bias. You said by comparing it to a casino that there was more then 50% chance of losing your money at a Thai bank.. or were you overstating ? 

 

I love to have a bet with people like you too bad its not legal or enforceable. But i would love to bet that money is safe for at least this year if you stay under the guaranteed amount. 

 

There's no need to be harsh.

@Leaver has sound reasoning, he's just ultra risk averse. It might be because of his age, or maybe he got burned badly before.

 

I'm young, but I imagine the older I get the more risk averse I will become, especially when it comes to investment.

[Leaver]

On 10/26/2020 at 9:31 AM, Barnabe said:

 

There's no need to be harsh.

@Leaver has sound reasoning, he's just ultra risk averse. It might be because of his age, or maybe he got burned badly before.

 

I'm young, but I imagine the older I get the more risk averse I will become, especially when it comes to investment.

I'm not adverse to risk, I'm just adverse to risk in a 3rd World Country in which I have no rights in, and are viewed as no more than a long term tourist.   It's these elements that increase the risk substantially.