OPINION: When hoteliers emerge from 2020, the business will be hard

[johnnybangkok]

2 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

And have I suggested no lockdown ? No, I suggest a more targeted approach than the total nonsense lockdown of the entire economy.

 

I rent my house out to someone. During the first lockdown , his ex wife and kids moved in , so that her father could safely be on his own as they both worked. THAT is the kind of thing that needs to happen. Hands Face Space, should be Isolate, Protect, support, 

And how exactly would you do that?

Some can walk around, others can't but no one is allowed to go near someone over the age of 55, or who is fat, or suffers from asthma? All people over 65 have to be locked in their houses and food, provisions brought to them (by who we don't know). All care homes are to be emptied and everyone returned home because Richard had a situation where he rented out a flat to someone where his his ex wife and kids moved in to help that person so now everyone now has to do this.

Can you see how nonsensicle your ideas are? Even if your anecdotal situation was in any way effective, implimentation is the problem and that's were the logistical stumbling blocks really come out.  

[Lacessit]

30 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

In 2006 I had pneumonia, my lungs are ok, but never the same as previously. I know what it is like to be incapacitated and have months of rehabilitation. You just have to plough through it and get on with it. Don't feel sorry for yourself. I would suggest more people are living with the after effects of strokes, obesity, diabetes, lung illnesses (non covid) etc than covid after symptoms. Do you think covid after symptoms make up 0.1% of those suffering other after effects ? I seriously doubt it.

 

 

Don't feel sorry for myself? When did I say I was ill?

Doubt away, I'm getting anecdotal evidence from my son the after effects of COVID are serious. I'll take his word over your unfounded speculation.

[ChrisKC]

4 hours ago, Tidybeard said:

 

What do you think is going to happen when the lock downs stop ??? At some point in time you need to be exposed to a virus, and hope that your immune system can cope. The best thing that World Governments to have done would have been to set up huge manufacturing plants for Vitamin D and distribute it freely around the global population.

 

Anything else just delays the inevitable.... including Thailand

I don't know what will happen;  neither do you or any of the world's experts 

 

So why didn't you submit this "obvious" thing to do, to all the world governments? You could have become a world saviour!

[ttrd]

11 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

The 1 Million deaths were mitigated by the lockdown back in April, had countries not done that, the figure would have been a lot higher. We're already starting to see the number increase because people are stupid hence another lockdown.

What else do you think we should do?

 

The sad and scary reality is that the virus will always need a new host to survive and if we will end up with no proper vaccine or antiviral treatment then the experts have said that around half of the earth's population must be infected before the virus dies out. I repeat 50% of the earth's populaton and so far only 0,5% has been infected so do the math. The lock down solution doesn't kill the virus - it only prolongs the timeframe towards a covid free world and in the meantime the world economy will be destroyed in the effort to try to save the very weakest with underlying diseases which in any case are vulnerable also to all other types of viruses - even a regular flu may be enough. 
Don't get me wrong - no life is worth more than others, but no one is benefited by the fact that everything and everyone will fall at the expense of a few and that reality will probably force itself forward as time goes on ...

[ronaldo0]

On samui there are 6-700 hotels or so . Last I heard there were around 150 for sale ! ????

[chang1]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Thanks for this chart but it doesn't tell us much.

It only lists people who died in their home. Which I would assume were normally mostly from old age. During lockdown far more people were at home instead of out and about or working. Second hospitals were very reluctant to take inpatients or even want them in A&E. Doctors surgeries were also harder to get seen at.

This would skew the figures to show more people dying at home.

 

This chart also from the UK ONS gives a more balanced view -

 

Looks like it's not showing up so try this link https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by chang1

[harleyclarkey]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

add to that say 200 millions jobs world wide for the stupidity of nations closing and we have 300,000,000 jobs and families losing their lives, income and houses for 1 million deaths (95% of which were old and and too fat), and the figures just dont add up anymore (if they ever did)

Wow Richard.....you seem to be quite happy that the "old and too fat" have been killed off.

 

I would have expected more from you with this dismissive remark about a group of people devestated with this (wholly avaoidable) Chinese virus. Maybe one day you will be old and fat....if you're lucky!

[johnray]

The Thai ones will be okay because it's just some guys house with a bunch of rooms.  But the posh ones will suffer.

[The Now Factor]

@ Chang1 You're throwing a number around like it's a fact,when there's no proof.

Edited November 2, 2020 by The Now Factor

[The Now Factor]

8 hours ago, chang1 said:

Are you sure that is a fact or is it just an uninformed guess?

The first lockdown was being reported as saving many lives and not just from covid19.  Less people were dying at work, on the roads and especially there was a big fall in deaths due to improved air quality. 

 

There's no empirical evidence to support that report. It's as much a guess.

[The Now Factor]

7 hours ago, chang1 said:

This is a common kind of comment I see but little thought seems to be given to the reasoning for it. 

My first question is how much is a human life worth? 

2nd - how many people are you willing to sacrifice to keep your job?

3rd - many of those who get covid19 and survive have ongoing health problems caused by it - how do you put a value on that?

4th - what restrictions, if any, would you put in place instead of lockdowns?

5th - how many people will die because they can't get treated in hospitals?

6th - how bad would it have to get before you would recommend a lockdown?

 

The last question is the most important as this is the point where it directly affects you. Remember you don't have to be infected with covid19 to be killed due to it. If hospitals are over run with patients then a relatively minor illness or injury could be fatal for you. Suddenly it is not just the old and fat that are dying. During winter in the UK our hospitals are stretched due to flue so add in covid19 when there is no spare capacity means other patients can't be treated. We are starting our 2nd lockdown this week not due to "hysteria" but due to real evidence about the spread of covid19 and its repercussions if we don't. 

Your whole thesis falls apart when you state IF hospitals are over run.Reality says they're not and that's world wide.

 

[Chelseafan]

3 hours ago, ttrd said:

The sad and scary reality is that the virus will always need a new host to survive and if we will end up with no proper vaccine or antiviral treatment then the experts have said that around half of the earth's population must be infected before the virus dies out. I repeat 50% of the earth's populaton and so far only 0,5% has been infected so do the math. The lock down solution doesn't kill the virus - it only prolongs the timeframe towards a covid free world and in the meantime the world economy will be destroyed in the effort to try to save the very weakest with underlying diseases which in any case are vulnerable also to all other types of viruses - even a regular flu may be enough. 
Don't get me wrong - no life is worth more than others, but no one is benefited by the fact that everything and everyone will fall at the expense of a few and that reality will probably force itself forward as time goes on ...

 

You're missing the point, the lockdown is to reduce the burden on hospitals.

Got cancer? Due an Op? Tough luck, beds, doctors and nurses are taken up by Covid patients.

 

[jerolamo]

16 hours ago, Oldie said:

"95% of which were old and and too fat"

 

Wait till i get my hands on you... ????

Do you agree to kill the world and families just for yourself and a minority who already had everything and a good life ?

Never enough !

Come on put your hands on me... just try and see the result of the quick return back.

 

The reality is not for protect old people who has less than one year of life hope. I can tell you there in France they give then medic to die (the government did it). COVID is a pretext for something other than yourself. But... looks like you are limited and would not be able to understand.

Edited November 2, 2020 by jerolamo

[jerolamo]

5 hours ago, ttrd said:

The sad and scary reality is that the virus will always need a new host to survive and if we will end up with no proper vaccine or antiviral treatment then the experts have said that around half of the earth's population must be infected before the virus dies out. I repeat 50% of the earth's populaton and so far only 0,5% has been infected so do the math. The lock down solution doesn't kill the virus - it only prolongs the timeframe towards a covid free world and in the meantime the world economy will be destroyed in the effort to try to save the very weakest with underlying diseases which in any case are vulnerable also to all other types of viruses - even a regular flu may be enough. 
Don't get me wrong - no life is worth more than others, but no one is benefited by the fact that everything and everyone will fall at the expense of a few and that reality will probably force itself forward as time goes on ...

you trust this story ? Really ? There is not much dead than in 2018 or 2019. It is not a real pandemic who kill enough to imply this story time.

All the "specialist" speaking about this COVID and use fear lexical language area are, all of them, conflict interest with pharmaceutic industry. All the other scientists and doctors who sign petition to instruct people about the true of what is a pandemic and how much this COVID doesn't kill enough to be a real pandemic, instruct about the wrong positive tests, but also the wrong comptability of death by COVID (some country doesn't test then doesn't have, some other, everybody seems to die COVID, but still same number of death this year than last year... can you understand ?), but theses people without any conflict interest and on the top level of grade study are ignored from the TV media show and censored.

 

There is something other, open your eyes and trash your TV (who is a tool for officials guru's scammers).

 

Don't trust TV and scammers, do not be so naive. Try to instruct yourself, please.

[jerolamo]

14 hours ago, ChrisKC said:

Sorry to say this is true. Many countries are suffering from rising infections due to people not observing some sense and even whinging and rebelling against what are seen as impositions on their freedom. Of course, their are serious consequences economically and inevitable inconveniences but as ChelseFan says, "what else can anybody do"

Regarding Governments worldwide, it's damned if you, damned if you don't. The Health experts have warned consistently that a second wave was almost certain and now it's here...

 

I know many folks on this forum believe that Thailand's current situation is manufactured; manipulating the figures, not much testing, therefore no infections, etc. But on balance, we are in one of the best places on the planet (with just about the entire world being affected far worse in reality)

 

Governments in general are not to blame - look no further than the people they are trying to help!

 

yes, Sweden did and do nothing, they choose wide population immunity because this virus is not so terrible than they said, and they don't have much problems.

The lexical field used in some country with lot of corruption and interest conflict by their so chosen "experts" is the one of the fear, the same language lexical field used for manipulate anyone. Do not be this one without any enough instruction to trust this, the practice is wrong, it smell so bad, can't you smell ?

 

You trust the fear lexical language without check information. So because of that, you will be the one to add in fanatic side who trust the guru and buy something wrong to scammers. By this way, you are in the same time a victim and an accomplice one.

Just check the officials information first and see how much wrong they can be. Don't you know any people working in public hospital ? (because private ones are empty also...)

Are you able to check business relations and practice between some doctors and pharmaceutic industries ? And to understand the result ?

Please, instruct yourself out of the TV station propaganda.

Edited November 2, 2020 by jerolamo

[jerolamo]

12 hours ago, maddermax said:

All I can say to the first contributor, Richard Coleman, is that one day you too may be old and not appreciate such comments. Us oldies still have a lot to contribute to the world and particularly Thailand in the current crisis.

It is those of us with pensions and other income who are keeping most restaurants, bars, etc, open. We are lucky that we don't have to rely on ageists like you.

you miss-understand what he has wrote.

Are you the one to think that: "after me, never mind, me, me and just myself is important" ?

He tried to explain you that even if this COVID story was true (it is not), it doesn't kill enough, it is not enough dangerous to imply to kill the world economy and kill families, future of the freedom, culture, education, increase distance between poor and rich people, delete middle class, just for sale a vaccine or for a "World Order Organization" and their official plan to trade their own interest out of any democracy and out of any freedom consideration or any respect of intelligence.

So your point is that your self and the minority close to your situation (a real minority) is more important than future of the families and the world ? Is it what you said ? Everybody should be sacrificed for yourself minority of end of life people for a flue ? Which kind of dad are you ? You don't care your future generation to come ?

You are walking on the head man.... be courageous and stay confined yourself. I agree, you should take care yourself, but not lock the world for yourself, it is something you will never be able to defend seriously, because it is a shame and the summum of individualism.

[jerolamo]

12 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

don't worry the pandemic will be over in two days. 

there is no pandemic, but a world scam story time.

To much conflict interest people expert speaking on TV propaganda and censored scientists with much better level of study around.

There is also a world wide economic problem just before that....

 

In 2010 in the world, 338 people share half of the full wealth all over the world, implying corruption and 55 fiscal paradises, some of them win around 2000$ each second.

Actually in 2020, 38 people only share the half of the world wealth (some of them psychopathic)...

They are clearly more rich than any nation and upper to any law. They have power to corrupt anyone who want to have better life easily by deserve their wildest desires and look an other one side to not see how bad they do for social justice and all the other people around.

 

This is facts, open your eyes about what is the power and what can (and has already) be done. Do not be naive.

[jerolamo]

11 hours ago, chang1 said:

Are you sure that is a fact or is it just an uninformed guess?

The first lockdown was being reported as saving many lives and not just from covid19.  Less people were dying at work, on the roads and especially there was a big fall in deaths due to improved air quality. 

 

wrong, the curve of the virus is the same curve of any coronavirus famlily curve. You just have no clue about what you are speaking about and are full of TV propaganda speech in your brain. You are under control.

Instruct yourself, the confinement doesn't protect anyone. In Argentina, they get the most longer one (7 month) but the curve is exactly the same than for Sweden who doesn't confine anyone.

Just compare the country who does tests, because some other doesn't test nothing but speak.... without any serious credibility.

Now i tell you to look at death curve and relation between death and contaminated population... The contaminated population will grow for sure (and it is good, this is the way to go for a wide natural protection, because it is not Ebola...), what ever you do or did.

Be realist and stop to trust pseudo specialist (who are absolutely not specialist but, all of them, in full interest conflict who should be illegal, and who is illegal in some countries).

Just instruct your self on the situation out of TV propaganda show, please... just do it, don't be so lazy and victim.

[jerolamo]

11 hours ago, vacajan said:

How Mr. Coleman feels about 1 million elders is unacceptable!  Those elders know the past from the 1940's to the 45th century.  Then people who no longer fit into society's image were horribly murdered in death camps.  Mr. Coleman will not worry about that.  I think it's disrespectful.  Hopefully you will grow old too, but whether you will contribute much to society with that mentality is very doubtful.

you are touching the G point....

Zero argument there but rhetoric and lexical language of the fear again and you are not 1 million old people to think the same. My dad has 84, my mum 80, my aunt 98, my uncles: 88, 86, 85 years old. No one of them want this story to happen, they said, all of them, that COVID is a scam and it is not acceptable to condemn the future of families and populations to become poor and without any freedom because of that for a little flue who doesn't kill much (one of my uncle have it and doesn't have any symptom).

Two of my uncles was paratrooper and  my aunt was resistant against Nazi.

Stop to speak for them, you didn't do anything compared to them, you have absolutely no legitimacy to speak. You also doesn't represent anyone here.

You speak to quick but speak for yourself only please, and i think you are the tool of fear factor story time (same as it was in 1935 when start Hitler to speak the fear language to people like you to convince them by rehtoric that Jewel was so bad...).

You failed.

[jerolamo]

10 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

Because it's a nice earner. I expect that physiologically speaking, people are more prone to take from the mini-bar than having to get dressed and walk to the end of the corridor to get a mini vodka bottle.

 

 

because you are a fanatic of any alcohol or football or what ever it is more... This is not the profile of anyone (and it is not mine).

But ok... i'm happy if you are free as long as you doesn't walk on my feet (don't).

[Albert Zweistein]

13 hours ago, Andy from Kent said:

 

We recently stayed at what on the Agoda site claimed was a 5 star hotel.     I don't really know the difference between a 4 and 5 star hotel.      I only know it was very nice and cost only 1700 baht which included an outstanding breakfast buffet.     Due to prior commitments we could only stay the  one night.

What really surprised me was  when we checked in the reception staff asked us when we planned to check out the following day.     I told them we would be leaving shortly after 10:00 A.M. and the clerk replied we were welcome to check out at 1:00 P.M. if we so chose.     I believe that's the fist time I've ever been proffered that.

Next time in Bangkok I know where we'll be staying.   It was right on the river as well.

 

 

I spent 16 years the Christmas/New Year holiday in a 4 star hotel in Patong and we always checked out at 06:00 PM as we had a night flight back home and they never ever charged me a single baht. For you free was the message when I asked the reception. The charges for late check out was 1,500 baht as mentioned on a price list.

[ChipButty]

It's not When they open it should be If they ever open again

[Harrith54]

On 11/2/2020 at 5:33 AM, Chelseafan said:

The 1 Million deaths were mitigated by the lockdown back in April, had countries not done that, the figure would have been a lot higher. We're already starting to see the number increase because people are stupid hence another lockdown.

What else do you think we should do?

 

Just live the healthy way, eat fruit and enough to be healthy fed. And wear good face ask when go out in public. Wash hands when come home. Then you will be as save as can be. So it should not be the problem to let tourism die out like it does now. I am not happy borders are closed and the people are victim of endorsed fear of Covid.... Gov. should be better... 

[spidermike007]

If one were to calculate the amount spent on tourism infrastructure here, by private parties and international companies, it is probably close to a trillion dollars. And those entities counted on an administration to have their back, in the event of an emergency. Big mistake!

 

I doubt if we will EVER see 20 million tourists here again, in our lifetimes. I predict no more than 300,000 tourists in 2021. Even before Covid, the industry was declining. Numbers were up. Quality of tourists was way down. Things change and Thailand did not get with the program, and do what it needed to do. Many other more progressive nations did. The army has been moving the nation backwards, and betraying both the Thai people and investors, long before Covid. 

 

The longer they wait, the harder it will be to restore the industry. People have short memories. Thailand was already being forgotten by millions, before Covid, due to a dozen reasons. Now? Too many alternatives. This administration continues to see Thailand as the COTU (center of the universe). Say it ain't so! No humility seems to be manifested, as of now. 
 
So, we have about 3 trillion baht missing from the economy, minus the little bit of domestic travel going on. 20%! Millions of jobs. How long will that vacuum remain? Will the army develop some guts, courage, creativity and stop the panic mongering? It is unlikely. And what about the people? They are not really a consideration. If you are not rich or connected, you do not factor in. Woe is the average Thai, who worked in tourism. 
 
What can one say? Desperation is setting in. Heads are going to roll. Just returned from Samui. Utter devastation. 90% of the businesses on the beach road were closed, and hundreds of hotels are closed and for sale, many at half price. Trillions of baht are going to be lost here. Annually. Tourism will NEVER recover. Not in our lifetimes. Too much timidity. Too much cowardice. Too little juice and creativity. Such small minds. 

 

Get out Prayuth. Admit failure. Get out now. 

[rioD]

COVID has reportedly killed 0.1% of the people who have been diagnosed with it.  A fat old man in <deleted> poor health (Donald Trump) was able to survive it and in 3 days return to normal life.  The COVID hysteria is killing economies.  Isolation and inactivity weakens the human immune system. Only sheep support isolation and fear the COVID bogeyman.