UK's Johnson says there is no alternative to lockdown

[polpott]

29 minutes ago, scammed said:

so what ? death rate is lower then anywhere in europe

 

6 minutes ago, scammed said:

so i did just that, compared to denmark which is a neighbor to sweden,

 

[polpott]

23 minutes ago, scammed said:

you advocated comparing to only denmark, and so i did

OK lets compare Covid deaths in Sweden and Denmark.

 

31st October (yesterday)

 

Denmark 2

Sweden 1

 

Wow!

[Emdog]

As mentioned earlier, look at Japan for how to handle it. Or even better response, Taiwan. Seven deaths. Test and trace, no nationwide lockdown

Forget about Europe or USA

Is it a tad racist that leaders don't consider copying Japan or Taiwan or South Korea responses? Those are all democracies. "Their culture is different". Like evolution tells us "adapt or die" or maybe even Ben Franklin "The school of life has a high tuition, but some fools will learn in no other".

[fred110]

Even the WHO has realized that lockdowns are worse than covid. Increased suicides, drug abuse, depression, missing chemo appointments, depression, etc.

[sammieuk1]

Covid is stealing Boris's Brexit thunder it's that serious ????

[CG1 Blue]

4 hours ago, Surelynot said:

.....the only defense I can see for locking down is that the projections do indeed show a massive increase in excess deaths...the current data shows little or no excess deaths...all very strange

The trouble is, they are not showing a set of slides and projections for the other side of the argument. 

 

I'd like to see the graphs that show the projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown from poverty, suicides and people not being seen for treatable diseases etc. Then factor in the £2.4 billion per day the lockdown costs the UK, and we can properly compare the two scenarios. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by CG1 Blue

[PETERTHEEATER]

9 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

When Boris became PM I welcomed it, as I thought he was a political outsider.

Unfortunately he now seems to be just another politician, and I accept I was wrong to think otherwise.

You and me both. Worse, I cannot see any worthy successor.

[dunroaming]

As usual we are being given mixed messages with Johnson promising that the lockdown will end on December 2nd whilst Gove has said that they will "review" it before that date to see whether it will end then or not.  The furlough scheme is now ending at the end of November but what if the lockdown continues?    It may well be that the lockdown does end on the 2nd but what then?  If the R numbers are not below one, will there just be another, stricter one?  And even if the numbers show an adequate reduction in cases, will they then open everything back up again with the risk of it escalating yet again?

 

 

[natway09]

Actually Boris did have a choice 6 months ago, he chose not to "swallow the bitter pill" then

 

[johnnybangkok]

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

The trouble is, they are not showing a set of slides and projections for the other side of the argument. 

 

I'd like to see the graphs that show the projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown from poverty, suicides and people not being seen for treatable diseases etc. Then factor in the £2.4 billion per day the lockdown costs the UK, and we can properly compare the two scenarios. 

And why they are at it why don't they just give us a straight up cost for a dead relative? You know, we've lost 2.4 billion which is the equivalent (at current market rates) of 20 grannies, 15 aunties and a 22 year old asthma sufferer?

We can then start up a Death Exchange where we can trade dead relatives on the free market (which as we all know is much, much better and will allow America to get involved). 

 

Oh and why you are they let me answer a few of your questions:-

 

Projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown from poverty = zero. It's the UK. No ones starving to death.

Projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown from suicides = no numbers as yet. They wait until the end of the year but this is expected to increase.

Projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown for treatable diseases etc = very few but could be huge if the health service was overwhelmed you know, by something like a pandemic.

 

 

 

 

[Nigel Garvie]

8 hours ago, Surelynot said:

OMG...this has Cummings written all over it...

 

Excess deaths are well down for the data that is available, the indications are that the number of deaths will be nowhere near what they were in Spring....so?

 

Put out the news it is going to horrendous, introduce lockdown, not so many deaths......who's ya daddy?

 

Boris is our hero...he saved the nation.

<Snip>

On that note I just saw this wonderful spoof headline.

"Dominic Cummings announces second lockdown tour dates".

[bodga]

10 hours ago, polpott said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102257/cumulative-coronavirus-cases-in-the-nordics/

 

Sweden:   Cumulative Covid cases 96K      Cumulative Covid deaths 5.9k

 

Norway:   Cumulative Covid cases  13k     Cumulative Covid deaths 267

 

Denmark: Cumulative Covid cases  30k     Cumulative Covid deaths 643

 

Finland:   Cumulative Covid cases   10k    Cumulative Covid deaths 346

 

Actually doing very badly compared to its neighbours who did enforce restrictions.

Even Sweden now admits that it got it wrong.

That depends  on all  3 waves as they usually  come in 3's and youd  need the figures at the end, maybe the second wave  will  wipe  out the other countries and not decimate Sweden

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, johnnybangkok said:

And why they are at it why don't they just give us a straight up cost for a dead relative? You know, we've lost 2.4 billion which is the equivalent (at current market rates) of 20 grannies, 15 aunties and a 22 year old asthma sufferer?

We can then start up a Death Exchange where we can trade dead relatives on the free market (which as we all know is much, much better and will allow America to get involved). 

 

Oh and why you are they let me answer a few of your questions:-

 

Projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown from poverty = zero. It's the UK. No ones starving to death.

Projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown from suicides = no numbers as yet. They wait until the end of the year but this is expected to increase.

Projected number of deaths as a result of a lockdown for treatable diseases etc = very few but could be huge if the health service was overwhelmed you know, by something like a pandemic.

 

 

 

 

If you don't fully understand a post, it's probably best not to respond to it 

[johnnybangkok]

43 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

If you don't fully understand a post, it's probably best not to respond to it 

Oh I understand your post. It’s not that sophisticated. 
Your only valid point is an increase in suicides (Probable but still no where near the tens of thousands dying from C19) and since no one is going to starve and no one is getting turned away for life saving medical attention (unless the NHS gets swamped), your point boils down to money. How much is this all going to cost and is the cost worth saving a few grannies? 
Is that about it?
 

[CG1 Blue]

3 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

Oh I understand your post. It’s not that sophisticated. 
Your only valid point is an increase in suicides (Probable but still no where near the tens of thousands dying from C19) and since no one is going to starve and no one is getting turned away for life saving medical attention (unless the NHS gets swamped), your point boils down to money. How much is this all going to cost and is the cost worth saving a few grannies? 
Is that about it?
 

No, not at all. I thought this was all common knowledge, but I'll outline what I'm talking about. 

 

There are reportedly thousands of people too scared to go to the GP or hospital with conditions that may kill them if left untreated. It is well documented that cancer referrals are down massively. The time lag could be covering up untold deaths on the horizon from this alone. 

 

Mental health issues are a huge problem already, and do we really know how many more suicides the lockdowns will lead to for people in an already fragile state? 

 

Then let's look at poverty, which you casually dismiss as not affecting death rates. Some respected scientists have done the analysis on this, but are being widely ignored, e.g.: 

 

‘An economic crash could cost more lives than the coronavirus’

If the coronavirus lockdown leads to a fall in GDP of more than 6.4%, more years of life will be lost due to the subsequent recession than will be gained through beating the virus.

https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/04/02/an-economic-crash-could-cost-more-lives-than-the-coronavirus/

 

All I'm saying is that focussing on Covid deaths only with all these graphs is giving us a one sided view. The public deserve to see the counter-argument in graphs and projections, but the SAGE bods only give us the Covid stats. 

 

I only mentioned the £2.4 billion per day cost of lockdown to highlight how much COULD be spent on alternative measures. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by CG1 Blue

[polpott]

9 hours ago, bodga said:

That depends  on all  3 waves as they usually  come in 3's and youd  need the figures at the end, maybe the second wave  will  wipe  out the other countries and not decimate Sweden

They don't "usually come in 3s". There 3 waves to the Spanish flu in 1918. Its not a rule.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 11/2/2020 at 12:31 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

When Boris became PM I welcomed it, as I thought he was a political outsider.

Unfortunately he now seems to be just another politician, and I accept I was wrong to think otherwise.

Saw him on BBC news this am. They showed him now and another clip from a while back. Seems that the more he becomes a "normal" politician, and less an entertaining outsider the more subdued his hair becomes. Today it looked pretty normal, bur before as if he was in a hurricane.

[polpott]

11 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Saw him on BBC news this am. They showed him now and another clip from a while back. Seems that the more he becomes a "normal" politician, and less an entertaining outsider the more subdued his hair becomes. Today it looked pretty normal, bur before as if he was in a hurricane.

Currently lost his mojo because Dominic Cummings is away on holiday and Boris is stuck for words.

[The Deerhunter]

23 hours ago, mr mr said:

cases vs deaths tells a different story. even taking into considering the massive increase in cases it has been a month since the *second wave* started the death rate is not following the same jump. not even close.

 

the huge increase in cases has not resulted in a huge number of deaths. as it stands the first wave was way deadlier than the current one. 

 

time will tell. 

 

 

Britain has reported 46,717 COVID-19 deaths - defined as those dying within 28 days of a positive test.  Yes wait for the fat lady to sing.  The Oprey ain't over yet, unfortunately.

[johnnybangkok]

6 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

No, not at all. I thought this was all common knowledge, but I'll outline what I'm talking about. 

 

There are reportedly thousands of people too scared to go to the GP or hospital with conditions that may kill them if left untreated. It is well documented that cancer referrals are down massively. The time lag could be covering up untold deaths on the horizon from this alone. 

 

Mental health issues are a huge problem already, and do we really know how many more suicides the lockdowns will lead to for people in an already fragile state? 

 

Then let's look at poverty, which you casually dismiss as not affecting death rates. Some respected scientists have done the analysis on this, but are being widely ignored, e.g.: 

 

‘An economic crash could cost more lives than the coronavirus’

If the coronavirus lockdown leads to a fall in GDP of more than 6.4%, more years of life will be lost due to the subsequent recession than will be gained through beating the virus.

https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/04/02/an-economic-crash-could-cost-more-lives-than-the-coronavirus/

 

All I'm saying is that focussing on Covid deaths only with all these graphs is giving us a one sided view. The public deserve to see the counter-argument in graphs and projections, but the SAGE bods only give us the Covid stats. 

 

I only mentioned the £2.4 billion per day cost of lockdown to highlight how much COULD be spent on alternative measures. 

I appreciate your points and your civil response (better than my sarcastic effort) but to me it's a simple case of being between a rock and a hard place. If left unchecked, C19 will quickly spread throughout the UK population (especially since it seems people have absolutely no self-control and can't follow simple instructions) and when you extrapolate the numbers out, the death toll could be horrific. Boris had this decision early in the pandemic when they looked at doing soemthing similar to Sweden but when confronted with deaths in excess of 500,000 plus, he quickly retreated. 

There is undoubtedly going to be a huge social cost for this and please do not think I am minimising this but as far as the UK is concerned I cannot see any going back from the path they have chosen. To not lock-down would result in an overwhelmed NHS (and you would certainly see many more non-covid deaths simply from not being able to be seen at all) and I would suggest that even suicides would increase when people start to lose more relatives and loved ones.

It truly is a horrendous situation with no easy answers and many stupid mistakes made early on but I do believe that doing nothing and letting the virus run rampant (which many on this forum advocate for) would be an absolute disaster and fortunately most scientists and governments agree with me, hence why you are seeing another UK lockdown.

To me the only real hope for getting out of all this is for a vacine to become available and although many companies are quite far down this track (Astra Zenica, Pfizer etc) we are unlikely to see any real solution until minimum the summer of 2021. In the meantime all I can see is a great deal more hardship for many but hopefully not the ultimate hardship of dying.