COVID-19 Almost Over

[DrPhibes]

21 hours ago, Walker88 said:

It's going to take time and longer than anyone wants. Even when vaccines are widely available, countries will decide for themselves when and how much to re-open borders.

 

Herd immunity, at least with Covid-19, is a shibboleth. Antibodies are found to last 2-3 months maximum. The initial Chinese research in this regards is being confirmed by additional study. Thus, it's going to take an effective vaccine or vaccines.

 

The two most promising vaccines---Pfizer and Moderna---come with a bit of small print. Both require two shots, an initial injection and a booster a few weeks later.  Immunity is not instant and takes a few months to build. Both vaccines also require liquid nitrogen cold storage until getting ready for injection. That may be doable in large cities, but the logistics of deep cold storage in rural areas or developing countries is an issue. Then there is the problem of production. Pfizer claims it can have 50 million doses by December. Sounds good, but the US alone has 330,000,000 people. Widespread inoculation will be a long process.

 

Finally, 95% effective is great for a corona vaccine (65% if about tops for the common flu), but 5% of 7.7 billion people is a lot of people. The world is going to have to live with lost lives from this new pathogen.

 

Addressing the virus will likely require both vaccines and treatment programs that use drugs which mitigate the worst effects or suppress the virus. Think of the latter like the drugs used to keep HIV at bay without ever actually curing it.

 

Yes, there is astonishing progress in vaccine development, but again, individual countries will decide what they are willing to risk and when. Thailand has been particularly cautious, and that has yielded benefits which the government may not want to put at risk.

A slight modification on the storage requirements for Moderna's vaccine:

 

"In a separate statement, Moderna stated that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate remains stable for 30 days at 2-degree Celsius to 8-degree Celsius, the temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator. The company said mRNA-1273 remains stable at -20⁰ C (-4⁰F) for up to six months, at refrigerated conditions for up to 30 days and at room temperature for up to 12 hours. "  -20C is much easier to keep in transit than -75C.  BTW, liquid nitrogen is below -196C (when it starts to boil at 1 atm).  Maybe you were thinking of dry ice at about -78C at 1 atm.

[Bangkok Barry]

23 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Well to answer the OP. I'm not a fan of virtual tourism, I'd rather see a movie. I certainly wouldn't part with any of my hard earned to go on a virtual tour. Call me old fashioned, but I like my swims real, my beers cold, my girlfriends warm and my colours vivid through my own eyes.

Not really connected to Covid but just out of interest, I've taken dozens of 'virtual tours', all downloaded from YouTube and watched on a big screen (I don't have a Smart tv as the old one I have works fine). So you don't need to part with any hard earned.

 

Places I've 'walked' include Bangkok, Pattaya, many parts of my native London, many areas of New York, Paris, California streets and beaches plus the Pacific Coast Highway, Budapest, Stockholm, Helsinki, Melbourne, Sydney, Tokyo etc etc etc. Most I've been to and it's nice to see them again. And no airfares, no hours in a metal tube and no hotel to pay for.

 

Something I noticed and which surprised me is that many European cities have now completely closed off the streets in the centre to traffic. Pattaya could close off Beach Road and have two-way traffic on Second Road, but of course is doing the opposite of closing roads and instead has opened up Walking Street to traffic.

[natway09]

The direct answer to your question is "nobody really knows"

The anti vacciners will ensure that there will be no easy solution.

Once a vaccine is available Thailand should just say no vaccination 30 days previous,  we do not want you here.

I heard that the International Certificate which they propose to issue will ne very hard to forge

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 11/19/2020 at 4:55 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

It'll be like the 1918 influenza epidemic which was far worse than corona is, to date. Once the vulnerable to this particular strain pass away natural resistance takes over and it'll be like the flu is today, IMO, which still kills many, but is not serious to most, IMO.

The closest relative to SARS-CoV-2 that is still prevalent, is MERS. It's been around for getting on towards ten years now. There's no sign of any natural resistance developing yet - it still kills around 30% of those it infects.

[Mayhem11]

22 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Says the extremist anti-vaxxer brigade.

This group is a major threat to controlling the pandemic.

Of course it's important to determine that any vaccines released are safe and effective. But that doesn't mean 100 percent safe and effective. Nothing in the world meets that impossible standard.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vax-movement-among-top-10-global-health-threats-for-2019-world-health-organization/

In the USA Big  Pharma is immunised against liability for side effects from tested vaccines by legislation. This is why vaccines aren’t 100% safe. They don’t have to be because there is no downside for Big Pharma. But why does the public have to accept a sub-optimal product?

[George Aylesham]

22 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The current research appears to indicate that having had it doesn't necessarily provide immunity for a long time. So your reasoning is suspect.

Fortunately the jury still seems to be out on the duration of conferred immunity, particularly with the two latest vaccines.

[GroveHillWanderer]

2 hours ago, papa al said:

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

Is that not natural resistance?

No, that's innate immunity (assuming it's correct) and it's what some people have for almost any disease. The natural resistance being talked about would involve acquired immunity.

Edited November 20, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[GroveHillWanderer]

22 hours ago, Walker88 said:

The two most promising vaccines---Pfizer and Moderna---come with a bit of small print. Both require two shots, an initial injection and a booster a few weeks later.  Immunity is not instant and takes a few months to build. Both vaccines also require liquid nitrogen cold storage until getting ready for injection. That may be doable in large cities, but the logistics of deep cold storage in rural areas or developing countries is an issue. Then there is the problem of production. Pfizer claims it can have 50 million doses by December. Sounds good, but the US alone has 330,000,000 people. Widespread inoculation will be a long process.

As someone else already pointed out, these vaccines do not require liquid nitrogen storage, dry ice is fine.

 

It should also be noted that the -70°C (+ - 10°) requirement for the Pfizer vaccine is the same as required for the Ebola vaccine and they haven't had any particular problems using it in Africa, for instance. 

 

The cold chain logistics for keeping and distributing vaccines at -80°C using dry ice containers are well-established and routinely used for other vaccines already, as mentioned.

[n00dle]

23 hours ago, luckyluke said:

 

I don't get why it is madness.

I may change my view when I know why you claim it is.

 

do the math. it is not even remotely feasible

 

[Thomas J]

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

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Contact 66+PrayutChaCha for your accommodations now.

 

This Ad brought to you by The Tourism Authority of Anutin.

[cdemundo]

4 hours ago, papa al said:

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

Is that not natural resistance?

Yes.

But not herd immunity or we would not know the word flu.

 

[papa al]

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

////////////

No. That's blind luck.

I will repeat one more time; there is no such thing as 'natural resistance' to cold, flu or Covid.

////////

Mom taught 2nd grade for 40 years.

Thousands of chillin coughed in her face.

////////////

So before Louis Pastuer invented vaccinations

no humans had resistance to virus?

 

C'mon man !!

 

[NoshowJones]

On 11/19/2020 at 1:08 PM, Walker88 said:

It's going to take time and longer than anyone wants. Even when vaccines are widely available, countries will decide for themselves when and how much to re-open borders.

 

Herd immunity, at least with Covid-19, is a shibboleth. Antibodies are found to last 2-3 months maximum. The initial Chinese research in this regards is being confirmed by additional study. Thus, it's going to take an effective vaccine or vaccines.

 

The two most promising vaccines---Pfizer and Moderna---come with a bit of small print. Both require two shots, an initial injection and a booster a few weeks later.  Immunity is not instant and takes a few months to build. Both vaccines also require liquid nitrogen cold storage until getting ready for injection. That may be doable in large cities, but the logistics of deep cold storage in rural areas or developing countries is an issue. Then there is the problem of production. Pfizer claims it can have 50 million doses by December. Sounds good, but the US alone has 330,000,000 people. Widespread inoculation will be a long process.

 

Finally, 95% effective is great for a corona vaccine (65% if about tops for the common flu), but 5% of 7.7 billion people is a lot of people. The world is going to have to live with lost lives from this new pathogen.

 

Addressing the virus will likely require both vaccines and treatment programs that use drugs which mitigate the worst effects or suppress the virus. Think of the latter like the drugs used to keep HIV at bay without ever actually curing it.

 

Yes, there is astonishing progress in vaccine development, but again, individual countries will decide what they are willing to risk and when. Thailand has been particularly cautious, and that has yielded benefits which the government may not want to put at risk.

This soldiers government is firstly going to look after itself, they are not interested in the people, this unelected "MP" and his soldiers have had 6 years to "bring happiness to the people" and failed badly, when it comes to vaccine, they will do what most ups their own personal income streams, they are in government by default, not wanted by the people, yes Thailand has been particularly cautious, the "government" hate Farangs, and will keep them out of the country as long as they can no matter what happens with vaccines.

[NoshowJones]

23 hours ago, Skallywag said:

Did you get a vaccine against Polio? Rubella? Whooping cough?  Do you get a tetanus shot every 5-10 years?   you will "pay" one way or another.

In Thailand definitely.

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, n00dle said:

 

do the math. it is not even remotely feasible

 

I don't know about that. The various reports I've seen show that there are already commitments and provisions to manufacture over 3 billion doses of CoVid-19 vaccines for developing countries alone, involving just 4 of the many different vaccines under development. Other commitments I've seen add up to over a billion doses for places liked the US and Europe.

 

Quote

Four major pharmaceutical companies — AstraZeneca, Novavax, Johnson & Johnson and Sanofi — have reached agreements to eventually produce at least 3 billion vaccine doses for low- and middle-income countries, according to an analysis of publicly available data by Airfinity, a research firm in the United Kingdom.

 

Who will make coronavirus vaccines for the developing world?

 

Once vaccines other than these four reach fruition, there will be millions, if not billions more doses made available also. 

 

So I'd say we're well on the way to having enough vaccine doses available for the whole world, even at this relatively early stage.

Edited November 20, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[onthedarkside]

A considerable number of posts here have been removed:

 

a false way of calculating the CV death rate, misinformation and unproven claims, off-topic posts, trolling posts and replies to them.

 

In posting on this topic, please note the following forum advisory:

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[luckyluke]

1 hour ago, n00dle said:

 

do the math. it is not even remotely feasible

 

Not that good in math.

I suppose variables are different from one country to another, so not that easy.

But purely mathematical,

any idea how much years it will take ? 

 

[connda]

My guess is that Thailand will keep measure in place to keep out the backpackers and so-call "cheap charlies".  Set the bar high so only the vaunted "quality tourist" can afford to come.  Imho its a stupid idea, but that's Thailand for you.  Status conscious and full of greed.  I've got friends who economized to get over here than spend like crazy once they are in the country.  But!  I've talked to them and they have no interest in jumping through regulatory hoops or submit to invasion of privacy like GPS wristband.  Hello Mexico and points South for these guys.
Thailand will get what it's promoting.  The future will tell how wise of a choice they made.

[johnnybangkok]

3 hours ago, papa al said:

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

////////////

No. That's blind luck.

I will repeat one more time; there is no such thing as 'natural resistance' to cold, flu or Covid.

////////

Mom taught 2nd grade for 40 years.

Thousands of chillin coughed in her face.

////////////

So before Louis Pastuer invented vaccinations

no humans had resistance to virus?

 

C'mon man !!

 

Instead of spouting anecdotals 'facts' relating to your morther, perhaps try a simple Google search for the answers

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2012-03-dont-immune-colds.html Explains why you can never be immune to the common cold as essentially the cold is in fact anything up to 200 different viruses (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/understanding-common-cold-virus)

 

The flu is slightly different with growing evidence that those exposed to certain strains at an early age can built a healthy resistance (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/) BUT it doesn't protect from all strains of flu hence the need to get a flu jab each year which is formulated to fight the individual strain of that particular year.

[daejung]

On 11/19/2020 at 7:25 AM, cormanr7 said:

vaccination will be required in order to travel abroad. Even then, additional tests might well be required (I am thinking specifically of SE Asia, China and Japan).

 

Let's hope Thailand will stop quarantine, COE and Covid-19 insurance for vaccinated people

[vaultdweller0013]

10 hours ago, Mayhem11 said:

In the USA Big  Pharma is immunised against liability for side effects from tested vaccines by legislation. This is why vaccines aren’t 100% safe. They don’t have to be because there is no downside for Big Pharma. But why does the public have to accept a sub-optimal product?

To ensure that vaccines get developed and administered in the first place.

 

Even the safest of vaccines will result is in adverse reactions from a small percentage of the population. Vaccines must be administered to a high percentage of the population to be effective. This implies that even the safest vaccine will result in a significant number of cases with adverse side effects. If this group is allowed to sue and recover an unlimited amount, "Big Pharma" will do the calculations an decide to invest in lower risk medicines that marginally improve standard of life with no risk -- think baldness and impotence.

 

Instead, there is a program where the US government assumes liability for the very, very small percentage of cases where vaccines cause harm. This is done to ensure that "Big Pharma" has an incentive to invest and produce vaccines and have them administered (how concerned are you about smallpox?) while still providing an avenue for those adversely effected to receive compensation.

 

For the obligatory xkcd quote: "The heros of my field [biology] have slain one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse". Think about that. Covid had probably been the worst disease outbreak in 100 years and in less than a year, we have the ability to stop it dead in it's tracks, and yet, you will spew nonsense that want to extend all of the difficulty and pain that the world is suffering.

 

"Your post is bad and you should feel bad."

 

 

[rabas]

10 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

The closest relative to SARS-CoV-2 that is still prevalent, is MERS. It's been around for getting on towards ten years now. There's no sign of any natural resistance developing yet - it still kills around 30% of those it infects.

MERS came from Egyptian tomb bats and has little relation to nCoV-SARS1 and SARS2  from Chinese cave bats. MERS can't attack the ACE2 receptors that makes both SARS viruses so troublesome. MERS attacks a DPP4 receptor and is mostly caught from camels. It can barely transmit H2H.

 

Either way, with only 2500 cases so far it is not a good example for or against resistance.

[n00dle]

20 hours ago, luckyluke said:

Not that good in math.

I suppose variables are different from one country to another, so not that easy.

But purely mathematical,

any idea how much years it will take ? 

 

Nope

[luckyluke]

57 minutes ago, n00dle said:

Nope

 

Fair enough, 

 

so it may be feasible,

or than not.

 

 

[overherebc]

The vaccine is getting closer, I believe anyway, obviously a fair time still to go 'to get overyone done'

The interesting point will be how many countries will accept evidence of vaccination and only that evidence to allow travel and entry.

[ThailandRyan]

Already one in use, and you wonder if those that have arrived from China are part of the vaccinated ones

Almost a million people have been given an experimental Chinese coronavirus vaccine (msn.com)

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, overherebc said:

The vaccine is getting closer, I believe anyway, obviously a fair time still to go 'to get overyone done'

The interesting point will be how many countries will accept evidence of vaccination and only that evidence to allow travel and entry.

 

A fair few, I suspect.

[placeholder]

On 11/19/2020 at 12:38 PM, Peter Denis said:

... first people need to understand that vaccinating the entire world is total madness.

We definitely should leave out Antarctica.

[placeholder]

On 11/19/2020 at 1:08 PM, Walker88 said:

It's going to take time and longer than anyone wants. Even when vaccines are widely available, countries will decide for themselves when and how much to re-open borders.

 

Herd immunity, at least with Covid-19, is a shibboleth. Antibodies are found to last 2-3 months maximum. The initial Chinese research in this regards is being confirmed by additional study. Thus, it's going to take an effective vaccine or vaccines.

 

The two most promising vaccines---Pfizer and Moderna---come with a bit of small print. Both require two shots, an initial injection and a booster a few weeks later.  Immunity is not instant and takes a few months to build. Both vaccines also require liquid nitrogen cold storage until getting ready for injection. That may be doable in large cities, but the logistics of deep cold storage in rural areas or developing countries is an issue. Then there is the problem of production. Pfizer claims it can have 50 million doses by December. Sounds good, but the US alone has 330,000,000 people. Widespread inoculation will be a long process.

 

Finally, 95% effective is great for a corona vaccine (65% if about tops for the common flu), but 5% of 7.7 billion people is a lot of people. The world is going to have to live with lost lives from this new pathogen.

 

Addressing the virus will likely require both vaccines and treatment programs that use drugs which mitigate the worst effects or suppress the virus. Think of the latter like the drugs used to keep HIV at bay without ever actually curing it.

 

Yes, there is astonishing progress in vaccine development, but again, individual countries will decide what they are willing to risk and when. Thailand has been particularly cautious, and that has yielded benefits which the government may not want to put at risk.

Immunity basically depends on 2 things: antibodies and T-cells. Studies have shown that T-Cell immuniity for Covid 19 persists at least 6 months.

Covid-19: T cell response lasts for at least six months after infection, study shows | The BMJ

 

The Moderna Vaccine does not require liquid nitrogen storage or anything remotely close. It can be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures for 30 days. And at normal freezer temperatures indefinitely.

How storage temperature could give Moderna's Covid vaccine the edge (pharmaceutical-technology.com)

 

As for 5.5% of people being a lot of people. If 95% get vaccinated, which would be overkill so to speak. transmission of that vaccine is going to stop due to herd immunity. Estimates range from 40% to 70%

As for weighing the benefits... I believe lots of hungry Thai people and most of the rest who are suffering from the economic effects of the virus would be willing to take the risk. In fact, I think the government would find itself in serious peril if it decided to stand in the way of inoculations

Edited November 21, 2020 by placeholder