February 1, 20215 yr wow 836 new covid-19 cases today, why, they finaly did some active testing!!! need to do more active testing? every day now more cases!
February 1, 20215 yr Popular Post Yeah, and i still see people not covering their face with surgical masks or covering just the mouth but not the nose which is a spreader of virus. One sneeze from the nose can fly millions of virus around.
February 1, 20215 yr 19 minutes ago, rodknock said: wow 836 new covid-19 cases today, why, they finaly did some active testing!!! need to do more active testing? every day now more cases! It's ok, the PM said just the other day that the covid levels are acceptable! Trust him!
February 1, 20215 yr Supposedly many of those newly infected are migrant workers which are often housed in deplorable conditions: lots of people together in poorly ventilated dorms using a communal kitchen and toilets. Ideal conditions for COVID transmission. One can look at the staggering data from Singapore for what can potentially happen. Mid December it was reported by the Govt. of Singapore that of the 355,000 migrant workers (many from India and Bangladesh), 54,500 had tested positive by PCR, whereas another 89,300 tested positive by serology tests with about 65,000 tests still to be completed. Overall this suggests that more than half of the migrant workers have had COVID. https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/nearly-half-of-migrant-workers-in-dormitories-have-had-covid-19. Equally eye-catching, however, is the fact that only eight to ten have died.
February 1, 20215 yr "Wow"! Is the exclamation because the number of cases in Thailand remains so low and limited to certain areas and groups? It should be!
February 1, 20215 yr 2 hours ago, EricTh said: Yeah, and i still see people not covering their face with surgical masks or covering just the mouth but not the nose which is a spreader of virus. One sneeze from the nose can fly millions of virus around. Then that proves it. An R0 above one million could infect all of Thailand in two sneezes.
February 1, 20215 yr The shocking one was this morning in Mae Sot - they quickly found a load of cases and shut down the schools one hour after opening them! https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30402103?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=internal_referral When will they start doing active testing in ALL the provinces, not just Samut Sakhon? When they start to look for them, the numbers jump up.
February 1, 20215 yr 1 minute ago, rabas said: Then that proves it. An R0 above one million could infect all of Thailand in two sneezes. An R0 transmits to no one. An R1 transmits to one other person. An R1.1 is exponential. An R value of a million is of course impossible, 1 person cannot possible sneeze with such impressive gusto to spreads virus to 1 million people who then spread to another million !!! An R2 is high enough 1 > 2 = 3 3 > 6 = 9 9 > 18 = 27 27 > 54 = 81 81 > 162 = 243 243 > 486 = 729 729 > 1459 = 2187 2187 > 4374 = 6561 6561 > 13112 = 19703 19703 > 39406 = 59109 59109 .... and on....
February 1, 20215 yr if it does explode here and fill the hospitals it will be interesting to see just how many foreigners are really 'stuck' here - lol I predict an exodus never seen before..
February 1, 20215 yr Popular Post 2 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said: 1 person cannot possible sneeze with such impressive gusto to spreads virus to 1 million people who then spread to another million !!! Is transmission possible through farts? If so, I know quite a few chaps who could easily infect a province or two with a single blast.
February 1, 20215 yr 9 minutes ago, from the home of CC said: if it does explode here and fill the hospitals it will be interesting to see just how many foreigners are really 'stuck' here - lol I predict an exodus never seen before.. Doubtful - most of us with a little nous have insurance, and for the older folks here on 'retirement' extensions, insurance is mandatory anyway. I think most insurance companies cover the private hospitals - at least mine does anyway. NHS in the UK, or a private hospital in Thailand... I'll stay here!
February 1, 20215 yr Popular Post 3 hours ago, 2530Ubon said: The shocking one was this morning in Mae Sot - they quickly found a load of cases and shut down the schools one hour after opening them! https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30402103?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=internal_referral When will they start doing active testing in ALL the provinces, not just Samut Sakhon? When they start to look for them, the numbers jump up. Mae Sot is, of course a border town with many Burmese migrants and has had previous cases, so we shouldn't get too alarmed at that. Why waste valuable recourses testing in all provinces when there is no evidence of the virus in any of them?
February 1, 20215 yr Popular Post 16 minutes ago, Moonlover said: Why waste valuable recourses testing in all provinces when there is no evidence of the virus in any of them? With a high level of cases being asymptomatic e.g. showing no signs, you wouldn't know until you did the testing
February 2, 20215 yr 12 hours ago, foreverlomsak said: 11 hours ago, Moonlover said: Why waste valuable recourses testing in all provinces when there is no evidence of the virus in any of them? 12 hours ago, foreverlomsak said: With a high level of cases being asymptomatic e.g. showing no signs, you wouldn't know until you did the testing I agree that there is a possibility that there could be some asymptomatic cases out there in the community. But those persons are very likely to infect others who do present symptoms. Thus a cluster is borne. The virus has revealed itself. Now the medical teams know where to look and they have already proved themselves to be very efficient in containing such clusters. Therefor I see little merit in blindly going around the country randomly testing people, wasting valuable resources in the process. In military terms, 'don't waste your ammo, shoot when you have a target in your sights'. If Thailand had a serious problem with Covid, my answer might be different, but it hasn't and IMO they 're doing just fine.
February 2, 20215 yr 16 hours ago, from the home of CC said: if it does explode here and fill the hospitals it will be interesting to see just how many foreigners are really 'stuck' here - lol I predict an exodus never seen before.. To where though....the UK?
February 2, 20215 yr 18 hours ago, richard_smith237 said: An R0 transmits to no one. An R1 transmits to one other person. An R1.1 is exponential. An R value of a million is of course impossible, 1 person cannot possible sneeze with such impressive gusto to spreads virus to 1 million people who then spread to another million !!! An R2 is high enough 1 > 2 = 3 3 > 6 = 9 9 > 18 = 27 27 > 54 = 81 81 > 162 = 243 243 > 486 = 729 729 > 1459 = 2187 2187 > 4374 = 6561 6561 > 13112 = 19703 19703 > 39406 = 59109 59109 .... and on.... Can you explain what these numbers are about ?
February 2, 20215 yr Popular Post 22 hours ago, EricTh said: Yeah, and i still see people not covering their face with surgical masks or covering just the mouth but not the nose which is a spreader of virus. One sneeze from the nose can fly millions of virus around. There is a name for such people: Morons. I see them every day at the supermarket. Almost exclusively middle aged foreigners. Sad sacks who think they are rebels and sticking their fingers up at authority. They really just need a good slap in the face to wake them up. One of them, in Big C, thought it was a good idea to talk to me without their mask on. They regretted that decision instantly.
February 2, 20215 yr 19 hours ago, from the home of CC said: if it does explode here and fill the hospitals it will be interesting to see just how many foreigners are really 'stuck' here - lol I predict an exodus never seen before.. An exodus? To where? I have been here since last February and the losers who fled are bitterly regretting their decision...Where are you at the moment? ???? LOL?
February 2, 20215 yr 3 hours ago, Moonlover said: I agree that there is a possibility that there could be some asymptomatic cases out there in the community. I think possibility is too mild, probability is nearer, witness the high numbers in Samut Sakhon where very few are reporting sick but are being found by active testing.
February 2, 20215 yr 14 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said: 3 hours ago, Moonlover said: I agree that there is a possibility that there could be some asymptomatic cases out there in the community. 14 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said: I think possibility is too mild, probability is nearer, witness the high numbers in Samut Sakhon where very few are reporting sick but are being found by active testing. They are in quarantine. The whole purpose of the exercise is to curtail the movement of these people and test every one of them to identify and treat the positive cases. So the chances of anyone wandering off and spreading the virus are very small IMO.
February 2, 20215 yr 20 hours ago, from the home of CC said: if it does explode here and fill the hospitals it will be interesting to see just how many foreigners are really 'stuck' here - lol I predict an exodus never seen before.. Yes, good idea, I'll go onto the Air Asia website now and book a flight to Perth for next Friday.
February 2, 20215 yr 23 minutes ago, Moonlover said: So the chances of anyone wandering off and spreading the virus are very small IMO. If they hadn't done so beforehand, to Thais who can wander.
February 2, 20215 yr 23 hours ago, richard_smith237 said: An R0 transmits to no one. An R1 transmits to one other person. An R1.1 is exponential. An R value of a million is of course impossible, 1 person cannot possible sneeze with such impressive gusto to spreads virus to 1 million people who then spread to another million !!! An R2 is high enough 1 > 2 = 3 3 > 6 = 9 9 > 18 = 27 27 > 54 = 81 81 > 162 = 243 243 > 486 = 729 729 > 1459 = 2187 2187 > 4374 = 6561 6561 > 13112 = 19703 19703 > 39406 = 59109 59109 .... and on.... Ok here is a less hasty reply.R0's can get confusing. With R0 of 2 ,yes one person infects two who infect 4 who infect 8 (2^3) and with the ten infection intervals, all the way to 2^10 = 1024 new infections. For the total after ten intervals is 2046. (just manually add up the powers of two ten times) The reason you got about 59,000 is that in your model you are allowing the totals at each interval to infect two people. It is only the newly infected who are most infectious .For example the index case of one in your table is counted as infecting two people ten times. The infectious interval is about four days into the infection : max infectionous period. So your model would be about 40 days. Two ways to solve for R0 here : (R0)^10 = 2046 then 10(logR0) = log 2046. Log R0 = .33 So 10^.33 equals 2.13 And with the natural log e: R0 = e^kt. Then y(40) = e^kt = 2046. and ... 40k =ln 2046 ,k = .19 then R0 = e^(.19)(4) = 2.13 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
February 2, 20215 yr On 2/1/2021 at 2:23 PM, EricTh said: Yeah, and i still see people not covering their face with surgical masks or covering just the mouth but not the nose which is a spreader of virus. One sneeze from the nose can fly millions of virus around. i got nearly blind from covering my nose with the mask, it directed my exhale to my eyes, they got agitated, and then i got nearly blind on my dominant eye, i cant drive safely any longer, and i wont be risking my last eye PC or not
February 2, 20215 yr 10 minutes ago, scammed said: i got nearly blind from covering my nose with the mask, it directed my exhale to my eyes, they got agitated, and then i got nearly blind on my dominant eye, i cant drive safely any longer, and i wont be risking my last eye PC or not Sounds to me like you need to stay home and not wear a mask.
February 2, 20215 yr 7 minutes ago, gargamon said: Sounds to me like you need to stay home and not wear a mask. i do that all the time, i only leave home to buy food, and then i was dumb enough to be PC and cover my nose when i went inside 7/11 bigC, and the rest, as they say, is vision history
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