Today I saw some interesting things.

I was out on my daily walk around bangkok old town and I saw some good signs that we may be heading out of this awful situation.

A few bars and restaurants opened their doors and were stocking up on food & booze.

 

Now the bars in question have been shut since February last year & today was the first time I saw them with their doors open and music playing.

I went to talk with the owner of one of the bars and he told me that he is optimistic that they will be open next week, and that foreign tourists may be allowed back as early as April/May!

He said his friend owned a big hotel in Sukhumvit and that there is a big push to get the farangs back who have been vaccinated ASAP!

Also, a number of 7/11's that have been shut since the pandemic began were stocking up and preparing to reopen. 

The area I am talking about is of course Khao San and the surrounding streets.

 

While to some this may not be much to shout about, to me it is signaling that we are, possibly, nearing the beginning of the end of this dreadful pandemic.

Add to that, the recent news that hoteliers are petitioning the government to allow foreigners who have been vaccinated to vacation in Thailand as before is also good news.

 

 

What do you lot think?

Are we on the home stretch now or not? ????

Seems foolhardy. Its bound to backfire. Vaccinated people can still get infected and spread the virus to the non vaccinated. For Thailand to truly move on from this pandemic they need to vaccinate 70 to 80 percent of their population. So they're going to do that when if ever? Two years from now? 

figure I'll be still wearing a mask a year from now..

5 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

figure I'll be still wearing a mask a year from now..

You may be right about that.

But something, to me at least, feels different at the minute.

I think this vaccine will have a major impact on the virus eventually and will manage to get life as close as possible to normality before the year is out.

15 minutes ago, WineOh said:

I went to talk with the owner of one of the bars and he told me that he is optimistic that they will be open next week, and that foreign tourists may be allowed back as early as April/May!

The rumor comes from the last public announcement from TAT

with their idea of a vaccination passport.

Well we all know what is the valor of TAT's public announcement

do you remember the famous Phuket's bubble idea few months ago ?

 

The medical reality at the moment is even if you are vaccinated you

can still catch and spread the virus, The vaccine protecting you only 

to be seriously ill due to having the virus

Visitors must therefore first expose themselves to the risk of vaccination, knowing that vaccination does not prevent themselves from being re-infected, before they are allowed to enter the country. This is more to increase the number of vaccinations and their importance than to protect the country from the virus.

 

1 minute ago, WineOh said:

You may be right about that.

But something, to me at least, feels different at the minute.

I think this vaccine will have a major impact on the virus eventually and will manage to get life as close as possible to normality before the year is out.

it probably would have had countries not let this virus get the best of them. With months of unchecked disease in various nations it has naturally morphed to the point where vaccination may be needed on a yearly basis to keep on top of the changes - and you've seen how easy it is to get these shots rolling..

9 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

figure I'll be still wearing a mask a year from now..

 

a year lol. love the optimism. 

12 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Seems foolhardy. Its bound to backfire. Vaccinated people can still get infected and spread the virus to the non vaccinated. For Thailand to truly move on from this pandemic they need to vaccinate 70 to 80 percent of their population. So they're going to do that when if ever? Two years from now? 

Yes 2 years is the timing officialy anounced so far 

 

''Bangkok – The government has arranged to vaccinate 70% of Thais against COVID-19 by the end of 2022, not a whole year later.

Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul insisted that every process has been overseen by medical doctors and experts because the government considers public safety of paramount importance.

He said the government is following the COVID-19 vaccine plan, adding that Thailand has the capability to produce the vaccines locally and does not have to worry about competing over vaccines with other countries. (NNT)''

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/thailand-arranges-to-vaccinate-70-of-population-by-end-of-2022-341942

 

pandemics have in the past stuck around for 15 million years in a row, so i wouldnt hold my breath

 

One would doubt that the current target population of most nations in receiving vaccinations first (i.e. 70 and 80 year olds, mostly either in care homes or categorised as 'vulnerable') are panting/slathering in anticipation of a sojourn along Khao San Road.

27 minutes ago, WineOh said:

A few bars and restaurants opened their doors and were stocking up on food & booze.

I hope that was frozen food.

5 minutes ago, pagallim said:

One would doubt that the current target population of most nations in receiving vaccinations first (i.e. 70 and 80 year olds, mostly either in care homes or categorised as 'vulnerable') are panting/slathering in anticipation of a sojourn along Khao San Road.

You never know mate, could be a niche market ???? 

2 minutes ago, WineOh said:

You never know mate, could be a niche market ???? 

 

Indeed, Thailand could become the hub of zimmer frames and colostomy bag production.

35 minutes ago, WineOh said:

hoteliers are petitioning the government to allow foreigners who have been vaccinated to vacation in Thailand as before is also good news.

That won't happen until people in Thailand are vaccinated so maybe up to 2 years away. 

 

As for things picking up I noticed that today in Pattaya jn Buakhao and North Pattaya, things beginning to open and not just bars

I saw somewhere else that a plane ticket from Europe to Bangkok will be around 1200 euros.

That will be another thing to over come.

 

TAT's Sexy Thailand Tours has that under control! Once tourists realize there is sex available in Thailand, they will come here in droves! 

 

 

15 minutes ago, PatOngo said:

TAT's Sexy Thailand Tours has that under control! Once tourists realize there is sex available in Thailand, they will come here in droves! 

 

 

bit shoddy english there, its

sex tourism for quality tourists

1 minute ago, scammed said:

bit shoddy english there, its

sex tourism for quality tourists

It's BS however you look at it!

I don't think that they will wait until everyone's been vaccinated to open up but I do think that subject to some form of 'Vaccine Passport', they will start letting people in without quarantine but subject to testing, sometime within the next 6 months.

 

However, I also think that they will close that avenue down again if someone that is allowed in, tests positive/gets sick later.

2022 makes more sense.

A Foodmart and a 7-11 shut their doors just in the past week in north Pattaya.

There is some new construction going on but seems still more shutdowns.

 

I also think this opening up now is not timely.  It is a Chinese New Year money grab I think.

CNY is a big Thai holiday period stretching up to 2 weeks.

 

Hope not we will see but with cases still present and travel opening, I can see March not being good.

 

19 minutes ago, scammed said:

bit shoddy english there, its

sex tourism for quality tourists

Sounds  like Borat

Remember,  this is the first day of the rest of your life !

 

 

Well... KFC closest to my home reopened ... for a month. Black Canyon and McDonald's stocked up to reopen a couple of months back, but now even took the signs off and removed all the tables. One 7-11 reopened, but 2 others closed down. So don't be too hopeful.

Wishful thinking at best.

 

Thai's test 896 people, all have covid.

 

The problem is the extremely limited testing reveals limited cases.

 

If the entire country was tested, how many millions of cases do you think they would find?

 

All of the people I know that visited Thailand in the past, or even lived there, zero want to get a vaccination and return.

 

 

 

 

Wishful thinking at best.

 

Thai's test 896 people, all have covid.

 

The problem is the extremely limited testing reveals limited cases.

 

If the entire country was tested, how many millions of cases do you think they would find?

 

All of the people I know that visited Thailand in the past, or even lived there, zero want to get a vaccination and return.

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

2022 makes more sense.

A Foodmart and a 7-11 shut their doors just in the past week in north Pattaya.

There is some new construction going on but seems still more shutdowns.

I have noticed few banks agency start to close too

(Like Bangkok bank in Big C extra) it's never a good sign

 

Yes few new constructions are still a work in progress, like The Edge

at the corner 2nd road\soi Diana but they are big projects started and financed

years ago, well before Covid hit the world, and the investissors were still confindent 

in a relative quick end of the crisis. I am afraid they were badly wrong on this one.

 

Anyway i am pretty sure no any new condo project should be built in the next months\years.

 

 

Wineoh said - "What do you lot think? Are we on the home stretch now or not?"

I'd like to be optimistic but I'd say that despite the signs, there's little or no chance of any real recovery in 2021. Here's why:

 

Promoted by the government and TAT there's been a push to get tourists back to Thailand from the middle of last year, mostly accompanied by a number of unworkable, madcap schemes (for example: long term 90 days renewable visas for "quality" Chinese; "tourists"; the Phuket "bubble"; tourists isolated on the islands etc.etc). And of course, all after having survived the onerous quarantine period and regulations.

For clarity (and as far as I understand), the planned vaccinations rollout (for most of Europe and many other countries) will be something like this: 
1 - Residents of care homes and their carers
2 - Health and social care workers
3 - Those 80 years old and over
4 - Those 70 years old and over
5 - The clinically vulnerable
6 - Those 65 years old and older
7 - 16-64 years old with underlying health conditions
8 - The police, the military and those in essential professions (who are not eligible above)
9 - 60 years old and over, 55 years and older and 50 years old and over

But even now after all this time, the lunatics who are "running" this asylum seem completely oblivious to the simple fact that the Thailand tourist demographic means they (tourists) are are going to be a long way back in the queue to receive the vaccinations that will enable them to travel. Add to this the various other challenges regarding for instance; booking air travel, booking hotel accommodation, the damaged tourist infrastructure and attractions and so on.
So I would argue that tourists in any numbers from Europe, the UK, Australia, the United states, the Middle East, the Far East, Asia and even SE Asia coming soon to Thailand is only a pipe dream (and also providing there is no 3rd wave!), It's a grim picture but I think, realistic. The main players in Thailand might be better off concentrating their efforts on some sort of revival sometime in 2022.

Regards,
 

Joe

PS: Vaccination rollout evidence base(s) - UK.gov and WHO

 

When the virus is defeated (by mass vaccination) there will still be long and difficult times ahead before we can get back to normality.

6 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Seems foolhardy. Its bound to backfire. Vaccinated people can still get infected and spread the virus to the non vaccinated. For Thailand to truly move on from this pandemic they need to vaccinate 70 to 80 percent of their population. So they're going to do that when if ever? Two years from now? 

Genuine question,, you have a link for this important information? 

Seems a lot of stuff gets posted and repeated until it becomes fact.