TAT chief admits it could be THREE YEARS before Thai tourism is back to normal

[sammieuk1]

Vaccinated = entry with no hindrance or gouging will be the biggest obstacle to overcome ???? 

[MRtommyR]

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Many TAT offices, he said, pointed to the return of foreign tourists to Thailand in the FOURTH quarter. Previously he was bullish about the third quarter that begins in June. 

Is this a different third quarter to the more well-known one that begins in July ?

[Jimbo2014]

Finally the penny drops and even the toughest skull is no barrier for a blunt edged attack.  The combination of Weed Man (Health Min.) holding back vaccines until a clear path to pocket money is established, the rampant air pollution, the collapse of the tourist infrastructure and rising foreign competition.

[Fex Bluse]

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

TAT chief admits it could be THREE YEARS before Thai tourism is back to normal

@sandyf I'm so surprised about this. I thought the domestic Thai tourism could fill the very temporary gaps. The pandemic was only supposed to last a few weeks.

[Thomas J]

Would you believe 4 years to reach 50% of prior levels

How about one Chinese Family and their dog by 2025. 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Thomas J

[Charlie Halliday]

3 hours ago, anchadian said:

Why, as soon as somebody from Thai tourism opens their mouth, we get a report about it?

 

We/ve heard it all before, tourism will return when covid-19 is eradicated and that could take several years.

That's sadly the reality. Prayut won't open without quarantine until covid has been eradicated. It's a bloody nightmare but the vaccine only protects the person who's vaccinated, and does not protect those around them. It's not a vaccine as we know such as small pox, polio etc.. This could take years and Thailand will suffer economic devastation, which is already the case in the tourist hotpots. 

[Cake Monster]

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Following widespread criticism that Thailand's tourism authorities were being overly optimistic some realism and acceptance of the future is starting to set in.

An understatement if there ever was one.

[natway09]

And suddenly the realization dawns !!!

[Moon6966]

If they keep demanding querntine I think it would be 30 not 3...

[tigerfeet]

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

TAT chief admits it could be THREE YEARS before Thai tourism is back to normal

 

Image: The Bangkok Insight

 

Following widespread criticism that Thailand's tourism authorities were being overly optimistic some realism and acceptance of the future is starting to set in.

 

The penny seems to have finally dropped with Tourism of Thailand governor Yutthasak Suphasorn who was speaking to The Bangkok Insight yesterday. 

 

Though he still expressed hope that the so-called "vaccine passport" could help by ending tourists' need to quarantine.

 

His comments come as industry leaders have urged the government to save what is left of the ailing tourism sector - 20% of Thai GDP at least - before it is too late and there is nothing for foreign tourists to return to.

 

Yuttthasak was no longer plucking figures from the ether about 10 million foreign tourists visiting this year. In fact no figures were given at all.

 

His comments were much more guarded though there was still some cause for optimism in his remarks.

 

He said that it would be 2 to 3 years before Thailand's tourism sector was back to anything like normal. He said he expects foreigners to start coming again by mid-year "but not fully". 

 

He thought that this January had seen the worst of Covid and things were looking brighter now.

 

He expected Thais to start travelling again at Songkran (in April) claiming that they were raring to go. He expected the government to be facillitating this. 

 

Last year the entire festival was cancelled amid fears of a spread of the virus, notes Thaivisa. What form it takes this year remains to be seen and will largely depend on what degree the second wave outbreak is under control come the tradition Thai New Year holidays.

 

Yutthasak admitted the tourism operators were in dire straits; he stressed the need for support for staff and downtime to be used in what he called "upskill" and "reskill" of workers.

 

He observed that the tourism economy was an important driver for the wider Thai economy.

 

The governor struck a positive note when it came to certain aspects of the return of foreign tourists.

 

He said that he was receiving good reports from 29 TAT offices worldwide regarding vaccine programs abroad.

 

He cited the example of the Scandinavians who he claimed all wanted to beat a path to Thailand's door in the hot season.

 

Thaivisa notes that this seemed strange. Scandinavians were previously well known for largely ignoring Thailand in the hot season and in the European summer, favoring places like Krabi in particular in the cold European winter.

 

Many TAT offices, he said, pointed to the return of foreign tourists to Thailand in the FOURTH quarter. Previously he was bullish about the third quarter that begins in June. 

 

He also noted that tourism minister Pipat Ratchakitprakan's "vaccine passport" plan had merit and had been discussed at a small cabinet committee. 

 

If given the go ahead this would see foreigners not having to quarantine when they come to Thailand. 

 

All along since the days of the much ridiculed STV, quarantine has been seen by everyone outside the tourism ministry and TAT as a major obstacle to foreign tourism. 

 

The special tourist visa is now not even being mentioned.

 

Other tourism leaders quoted by the media also put faith in a vaccine passport and said that government support for tourism businesses needed to be fast before they went under.

 

Yutthasak said they needed to "grit their teeth".

 

Government policy regarding tourism needed to be clear, said the leaders.

 

And therein lies the nub of the matter. 

 

Critics have noted the "flip-flop" of the Thai government pinning their hopes on one false dawn after another. They have said there is a lack of overall strategy with different ministries, departments and individuals competing for the limelight with one ill thought out scheme after another. 

 

Now many are pointing fingers when it comes to the rollout of vaccinations inside Thailand. 

 

With June before mass vaccinations begin some are saying this is too slow while the whole procurement process of vaccination doses, the companies involved and possible vested interests, are all coming under increased scrutiny both in Thailand and abroad. 

 

Comments from senior leaders like health minister Anutin Charnvirakul and DPM Prawit Wongsuwan in dismissing criticism and being economical with information have done nothing to allay concerns.

 

Source: The Bangkok Insight

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2021-02-06

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

Hummm add 5 more years onto that but seriously I think they have out priced themselves .

[Autonuaq]

The really missed the news.

 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19

 

Vaccinated people may still.be able to spread.

 

 

 

[sambum]

Just now, anchadian said:

Why, as soon as somebody from Thai tourism opens their mouth, we get a report about it?

 

We/ve heard it all before, tourism will return when covid-19 is eradicated and that could take several years.

 

BECAUSE -   It's such a rarity for anyone from TAT to virtually admit that their fantastic estimates over the past year have been a croad of lap, and for it to come from  Tourism of Thailand governor Yutthasak Suphasorn himself shows that tourism is indeed in the doo doo!

[superal]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Oh the Horrors, Oh the Shock, oh the...well whatever, tomorrow he will say something to the opposite.  These daily stories, although I do believe the truthfulness of 2 to 3 years before true tourism returns unlike a few members who say by the 3rd quarter of this year it will have returned, truly show that the reality is very bleak at this point.

The whole vaccination program and procurement of said vaccines is right now in a total shambles.  Daily inaccuracies, and the inability to admit that they have no vaccines in shipping at this point, and that they really do not know when or if they will arrive is the complete fault of the MOPH DPM.  Seems that they want it to be about making money instead of doing it for the good of the people.  Now don't get me wrong, yes they will produce vaccines and give them free of charge to the citizens eventually, but the goal was always to make money and money for one lab owned by a certain someone who would be selling the vaccines onward to other countries.  However, I think they are way behind because of procrastination. 

This is becoming a puzzle because I am sure Astrazeneca offered either the vaccine at cost and also offered to supervise the building of labs and production lines again all at a non profit plan . Or has this been rejected because it would be difficult to sell at a profit with the world aware ? I would not be surprised to see the Chineses vaccine Sinovac or the Russian  Sputnik V being rolled out in Thailand cos to me that could be a reason for delays so as to procure the volume needed under secretive contracts .

   Finally it is estimated that Thailand has in the region of 200,000 foreigners within the country and as of yet there has been no mention for their consideration vaccine wise .   Now if a Russian or Chinese vaccine were to be mandatory that would cause a few farangs to panic .

[Kurtf]

Starting when?

[SupermarineS6B]

Tell me who this bloke looks like ?   I reckon there's a family of Anutins all over the joint.... Scary thought..... 

[DogNo1]

Immunization conferred by a vaccine is now just a dream but organizations such as Oxford are working on creating a more effective vaccine by combining elements of other vaccines with its own.  We could see increased effectiveness in the future.  Right now the priority should be getting the vaccines into peoples’ arms ASAP. It’s a matter of life and death.  The number of organs with ACE-2 receptors that the virus can destroy is large and now includes the pancreas.  So diabetes 2 can now be caused by a COVID infection.

[mikeymike100]

4 hours ago, anchadian said:

Why, as soon as somebody from Thai tourism opens their mouth, we get a report about it?

 

We/ve heard it all before, tourism will return when covid-19 is eradicated and that could take several years.

"tourism will return when covid-19 is eradicated and that could take several years." Covid 19 will never be eradicated, much like the common flu. We will have to live with it! When the vaccine has been rolled out, assuming there are no long term after affects, thing will improve, but as you sat it may be several years!

[sanuk711]

3 years ...Great, I can travel Thailand get good hotel prices  no crowds, making a list up now.......

[from the home of CC]

the Thais are a resourceful people, they'll adapt and move on from this nonsense that only benefits a few..

[Fex Bluse]

1 hour ago, superal said:

This is becoming a puzzle because I am sure Astrazeneca offered either the vaccine at cost and also offered to supervise the building of labs and production lines again all at a non profit plan . Or has this been rejected because it would be difficult to sell at a profit with the world aware ? I would not be surprised to see the Chineses vaccine Sinovac or the Russian  Sputnik V being rolled out in Thailand cos to me that could be a reason for delays so as to procure the volume needed under secretive contracts .

   Finally it is estimated that Thailand has in the region of 200,000 foreigners within the country and as of yet there has been no mention for their consideration vaccine wise .   Now if a Russian or Chinese vaccine were to be mandatory that would cause a few farangs to panic .

 

Forward-thinking countries invested in vaccines early on. Some countries put money into multiple vaccine candidates. 

 

Thailand did not and are thus at the back of the queue. 

 

They were too busy telling the world they were "covid free" whilst doing almost no testing. 

 

Thailand deserves to wait now while all the properly managed countries who dumped billions into the vaccines get the vaccines first. 

 

[Fex Bluse]

52 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

the Thais are a resourceful people, they'll adapt and move on from this nonsense that only benefits a few..

 

All humans are resourceful. Thais are not special. 

 

What should have happened is the Thai government should have been investing in preparing Thais for the next decade. Some countries have been doing this. 

 

Also, they should have been improving their tourism industry. 

 

Also, they should have been trying to profit from the geopolitical situation with the world divesting of China. Vietnam did this. 

 

Thais will continue to be poor and at the mercy of richer foreigners who come to exploit their poverty. 

 

[Megasin1]

Its just more cloud cuckoo optimism and not based on reality at all. There is currently a lot of discussion now that vaccine passports won't be issued for the fear of creating a 2 tier society plus the elder members of community that are being vaccinated are more interested in seeing their families, rather than suddenly globetrotting off around the world. It will also be highly unlikely that the under 19s will get the vaccine at all as there is no real need for them to be vaccinated so at the risk of being accused of nationalism, most people will holiday within their own countries (a bit like Thailand is trying to encourage its own citizens to do). In the UK sales of motorhomes and caravans are phenomenal with campsites already booked up for the coming summer. I can't see this pattern changing for at least the next 10 years with a massive reduction on international holidays being taken and only those that have family interests abroad being willing to endure extortionate costs and restrictions to see their loved ones. If they continue with deforestation then the next and possibly more deadly virus will be here within the next 10 years. Buckle down wherever you are, if you are in Thailand and optimistic then you can at least believe that when Thailand finally realises that this is as good as it gets it will make your life a lot easier in an attempt to encourage you to stay, but don't hold your breathe. TAT can believe and spout whatever nonsense they want (which they do often) but at the end of the day they don't actually control the people that they are reliant on to bring them in the money. You have to look at the numbers and the numbers just don't add up. The UK is flat out vaccinating and yet, now at over 10 million you can ask how they will maintain that rate when that 10m need a 2nd jab. Sure vaccination production will ramp up but it will take years to fully vaccinate the world. Adapt and improvise, or die out and become extinct will be the new mantra for global holiday destinations. 

[Muhendis]

6 hours ago, bdenner said:

Why hasn't this clueless jerk been fired yet. He is not in touch with reality and never has been.

Yes. He does fit in rather well doesn't he.

[Isaan sailor]

With no vast numbers coming anytime soon, why not concentrate on other things that could help the country?  Start with your beleaguered export manufacturers.  Better infrastructure, more technical training, better English, and yes, a more competitive Baht.

[Truth Will Set You Free]

Let’s give him a hand ???? for keeping the death number low, but a foot ????for the outrageous restrictions that has kept the majority away. 
 

Now you need the western world, the nasty carrying disease foreigners. What happen to your Chinese? Looks as if they have another wave too. Oh, I forgot they jump ship long ago. 
 

Here is a suggestion:
 

1. Change the 14 days to 7 days. Have your embassies to conduct a 14 days test at their locations. The test will consist of initial test which is day one, and again on day 7. If they pass they must flight on within 7 days. Once they arrive they quarantine for 7 days. This can be up to 21 days that an individual has been screened. 
 

2. Raise the baht to drawn in investor to buy condos and so on. This is the #1 factor people are not coming. Is this why you change the holding of the Expats visa money from 3 months now to 6 months?  Without their money in the bank things would look a lot more financial disturbing for the country. 
 

Your restrictions are outrageous and the baht is too low.  If it keeps going down you are going lose a lot of Expats because their retirement money going to lesser than the requirement 65,000 baht a money. 
 

You claim to #1 when it comes to Prevention, but what are going to claim when the country hit rock bottom? 
 

 

[sanuk711]

1 hour ago, Megasin1 said:

In the UK sales of motorhomes and caravans are phenomenal with campsites already booked up for the coming summer.

 

What day is that on this year................................

[TaoNow]

What this discussion doesn't address is how the format of short-term visits to Thailand will change in the post-Covid era.

 

If there is widespread vaccination and no mandatory quarantine, then the "snow-birds" from northern Europe and the 0-GDP-gain Chinese tour groups will return in probably the same or similar numbers.

 

However, the biggest transformation (and the biggest loss to Thailand's tourist GDP) will be among those who viewed Thailand as an "anything goes" destination (i.e., what happens in Thailand stays in Thailand).

 

Starting at the top, this will affect the short-term business travellers (mostly East Asian, but also heavily from Australia-NZ, Europe and North America) who loved to come to Thailand multiple times a year to mix business with 'pleasure' in equal proportions.

 

The second group are the annual or semi-annual sex tourists who fueled the nightlife and low-brow tourism sector in Bangkok, Chonburi, and Phuket.

 

The third group are the budget, world travelers who were attracted to Thailand for its lax enforcement of minor drug offenses (e.g., weed).

 

The first group of high-end business visitors will wither as the volume of night clubs, 'members' clubs, and escorts dwindle to a trickle given the uncertainty of lock-downs at any moment's notice.  They will shift to other countries in Asia with more consistent and less draconian disease-control measures.

 

The second group, (male sex tourists) will be drastically reduced in number given the decimation of the bar-fine pubs and cheap massage parlors in the wake of sustained closures.  This group will be diverted to other countries with pre-Covid-like amenities. 

 

The third group (modern-day hippies) will no longer find Thailand a safe haven as Khao San, Pai District, and Koh Phangan shift to family-friendly vegan paradises. 

 

So, in sum, Covid-19 will not only reduce the volume of short-term visitors to Thailand each year, it will drastically transform the reasons why foreigners come here for a few weeks or months at a time.   

 

The TAT can either wait for that transformation to occur, or beigin to lay the foundation for welcoming it.

[chilli42]

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

They have said there is a lack of overall strategy with different ministries, departments and individuals competing for the limelight with one ill thought out scheme after another.

A shameful lack of leadership from the PM and his cabinet ... particularly for a country so dependent on tourism.  Not to say that there would have been no quarantine, there certainly would have been.  

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, mikeymike100 said:

"tourism will return when covid-19 is eradicated and that could take several years." Covid 19 will never be eradicated, much like the common flu. We will have to live with it! When the vaccine has been rolled out, assuming there are no long term after affects, thing will improve, but as you sat it may be several years!

Covid19 (or SARS-Cov-2) is closely related to SARS-Cov-1 or SARS as it was called. SARS was far more deadly (10% fatality rate), although it didn't spread as easily as C19.

 

Where is SARS now? It just disappeared and did so quickly (in about 4 months) and before any vaccine could be developed. It has not been seen since. C19 may behave in a similar way (possibly what most Western governments were hoping at the start) if we are very lucky. We now have vaccines for c19 which will hopefully reduce the transmission rate hugely and, if you happen to get it, the effects will be manageable without hospitalisation. At that stage its virtually game over. How long that takes depends partly upon the vaccination roll out and partly on keeping measures like masks and distancing until things are under control. It could take six months, it could take 6 years.

[NoComment]

Schrodinger's cat and TAT!