TAT chief admits it could be THREE YEARS before Thai tourism is back to normal

[Elkski]

Here I am complaining  that I won't  probably won't get the jab until April or may in US.  I think airlines will be reopening routes based on a countries vaccination % and soon will require covid tests or vaccination before all flights.   Thailand government was so caught up in scheming and having no covid cases and thinking they are this medical meeca , submarines, armored water canon trucks, to the moon, protestors, tapping the coffers, they didn't bother to spend bucks on vaccines.  This will become  such a travesty.  Hopefully it will be the straw to break the camel's back. Or is that elephant?

Edited February 6, 2021 by Elkski

[WildBillHiccup]

Three Years, eh? So soon ???

[unblocktheplanet]

Tourism & hospitality sector workers need to be retrained & accommodated. We could, for example, become an organic export hub, even Thai sticks or magic mushrooms for depression.

[ThaiFelix]

8 hours ago, YetAnother said:

what ? no more ludicrous estimates ? that was always entertaining

Yeah I was looking forward to the daily TAT Estimates Puzzle.  You know, its that game where you have to search the numerous estimates,/stats etc,  provided by the TAT, to see if any of them actually add up...........or get real close at least!  ????

 

[Bradmeister]

Those figures are also wishful and conservative at best....

 

52% of the Worlds pilots are currently unemployed.

 

Commercial Pilots hit hardest are in China with layoffs reaching nearly 60%

 

The best guess from the Think Tanks from DC to NY is  No Early Than 2027, if we are lucky, for the worlds economy to return to pre covid 19 days.

 

I'll say it again:     2027AD   

 

2271BE for all our Thai Buddhist Readers.  

[ukrules]

9 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Hard for TAT megalomaniacs to face reality, they seriously thought people would do anything to get in to Thailand.

The only way forward is to scrap quaranteen and relly on test before and after arrival, might entice a few. 

When they do open up again I suspect their number one mission will be to root out anyone who's stayed in Thailand too long.

 

Lets not forget the daily reports of many people being denied entry based on some arbitrary made up limit of days per year inside the country.

 

Come twice inside the same year for a little too long - no entry for you!

 

It's going to be interesting to see how they treat people when they do finally start to return in a few years time.

 

[Destiny1990]

Come on TAT more flower baskets and thai dances at airports to welcome new arrivals. You can’t loose hope think about a new plan.. ????????

[Blumpie]

2 hours ago, mrfill said:

Covid19 (or SARS-Cov-2) is closely related to SARS-Cov-1 or SARS as it was called. SARS was far more deadly (10% fatality rate), although it didn't spread as easily as C19.

 

Where is SARS now? It just disappeared and did so quickly (in about 4 months) and before any vaccine could be developed. It has not been seen since. C19 may behave in a similar way (possibly what most Western governments were hoping at the start) if we are very lucky. We now have vaccines for c19 which will hopefully reduce the transmission rate hugely and, if you happen to get it, the effects will be manageable without hospitalisation. At that stage its virtually game over. How long that takes depends partly upon the vaccination roll out and partly on keeping measures like masks and distancing until things are under control. It could take six months, it could take 6 years.

SARS disappeared, by and large, because it was so deadly and there were strict lockdowns.  MERS was another one.  Death rate was around 25 percent!

A virus is a stupidly smart thing.  If its mutations give it an excellent chance of spreading while not killing too many people, that's enough for it to fly.  COVID is perfect - you can have it, spread it extremely well and not even realize it.  IT's the spreadability, not the death rate that makes it so bad.  1-2 percent of the entire population, not to mention the hospitalization rate makes it a very dangerous virus.  If it got out of control, the death rate of 1-2 percent would be far far higher because healthcare would collapse earth wide.  

[bangon04]

"He observed that the tourism economy was an important driver for the wider Thai economy."

 

"the ailing tourism sector - 20% of Thai GDP at least - "

 

estimates still vary, but appear to be creeping up slowly .......

[Blumpie]

2 hours ago, Elkski said:

Here I am complaining  that I won't  probably won't get the jab until April or may in US.  I think airlines will be reopening routes based on a countries vaccination % and soon will require covid tests or vaccination before all flights.   Thailand government was so caught up in scheming and having no covid cases and thinking they are this medical meeca , submarines, armored water canon trucks, to the moon, protestors, tapping the coffers, they didn't bother to spend bucks on vaccines.  This will become  such a travesty.  Hopefully it will be the straw to break the camel's back. Or is that elephant?

More than likely, it will be countries requiring the vaccine not the airlines for international travel.  The airlines must comply with the countries demands.  If they fail, the airline is responsible to get that person back to their country.  

Will COVID transfer from inoculated individuals or not?  That is the question and nobody has an answer yet, nor will they for a while.  

If it does, then more than likely you won't be travelling until the country has close to herd immunity, if that's possible.  

If it does not, then one would have to be careful to ensure that the country that you're going to does not have a huge outbreak threatening hospital stability for any treatments required, or for safety reasons.  

We will know at one point, but with so many variants popping up it may be a while.  

[Blumpie]

4 minutes ago, bangon04 said:

"He observed that the tourism economy was an important driver for the wider Thai economy."

 

"the ailing tourism sector - 20% of Thai GDP at least - "

 

estimates still vary, but appear to be creeping up slowly .......

Considering a majority of the tourism industry in Thailand is underground....

[Blumpie]

31 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

Come on TAT more flower baskets and thai dances at airports to welcome new arrivals. You can’t loose hope think about a new plan.. ????????

I want a band outside of my hotel quarantine with that awful "boom boom boom" music.  It's supposedly there to make us feel more amazed at Thailand (?!?!).  More like <deleted> off...

[Alsyapal]

Allowing vaccinated tourists to arrive in Thailand without quarantine will help. But many in the UK have reduced income so will not be able to afford to travel to Thailand. They should make it more attractive to retirees. At the moment the hoops and paperwork as well as insurance and quarantine it is an expense of in excess of £4000 before they start to look for accommodation. I have been twice on a O/A visa but will not be able to come back. 

 

[kiwikeith]

13 hours ago, YetAnother said:

what ? no more ludicrous estimates ? that was always entertaining

What he could do is just let everyone in without quarantine, same as myamer people. They could rebrand the smuggling fee as airport tax. 

[Soikhaonoiken]

Think the Minister of TAT is living in hope's,  me thinks Thailand will never get back to the days of high volume tourists (thats if they ever recorded the correct figures, and excluded the in/out expats) Thailands tourisum has been on the slide for a few years now, Also they need to vaccinate the Thai population urgently as to put confidence in tourisum. 

[thaibook]

12 hours ago, Pilotman said:

A pure guess of course.  Nobody knows, nobody can predict what will happen next or for how long.  I suppose that he has to be optimistic, but I think nearer 5 years , but that's a wild guess too, but just as valid. The best indicator as time moves on will be the plans and actions of the international airlines in re instating old routes and planning new ones. My old airline is still retrenching and re equipping with a small number of new aircraft and has no known plans for opening old routes in the next 18 months. 

 

Pilotman, if your old airline uses the 'plane in your picture flights would be exciting but I do not think you would be carrying many tourists.

 

[soalbundy]

Realism at last.......his days are numbered.

[Dagfinnur Traustason]

Yep! It´s out in the open now! They can learn! Seems like they getting a little bit closer to reality month by month.

[Iron Tongue]

18 hours ago, internationalism said:

tourism is 18% of gdp, but the international one is only 12%.

 

problem with domestic tourism is now that very few have disposable income.

During songkran they would rather visit families in provinces, maybe stopping for a night at some cheaper hotel, but they won't be staying for extended holidays. Bangkokians would traditionally travel to by car within 3-4h drive  

 

There's no difference with international tourists now with little disposable income. 

Even the ones still employed are saving more now that they have witnessed a year+ of destroyed economies and instant poverty suffered by friends & family.  Short local vacations will remain the norm vs international jaunts for many many years.

[hotchilli]

19 hours ago, bdenner said:

Why hasn't this clueless jerk been fired yet. He is not in touch with reality and never has been.

He and his side-kick Pipat both have charmed lives.

[mtls2005]

19 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Critics have noted the "flip-flop" of the Thai government pinning their hopes on one false dawn after another. They have said there is a lack of overall strategy with different ministries, departments and individuals competing for the limelight with one ill thought out scheme after another. 

 

 

Uhm, that's why you need a committee, or three.

 

Not sure I've ever seen such honesty before in a public official here.

 

This guy's getting sacked soon. 

 

 

[Stygge]

Tourism 20 % of GNP? I think it´s more. The other day I read about an alarm call from police autorithies calling for alternative income sources for the police.
It turned out that a surprisingly large part of the unofficial salary consists of extortions from tourists.  Now when tourists are gone they are refered to their official meager salary which doesn´t suffice so they are forced to take bank loans and are put heavily in debt. I bet such costs are not in the official GNP statistics.

 

[rct99q]

Much like the rest of the world at the moment, Thailand is also having a difficult time in predicting where this pandemic is heading. If places such as Europe, Canada, US, and others are struggling, poorer countries will as well.

 

However there is certainly pent up demand for travel. Once things straighten out a bit, the world will go crazy. Much like the roaring 20's, but much worse I think.

Read about Whistler BC and its struggles. A place where before it was hard to find a room under $400 a night. Last May I was there and condos were going for $30 a night. Whole building units shut down 200 to 300 rooms. 

Right now in NorthEast Thailand near Nong Khai. People are struggling, but hanging on. A cousin to my wife who used to work in the Phuket turning tricks is back home with her parents. Life goes on. Unfortunately for her by the time things get straightened out she may have found a normal job. 

 

I am not sure i really want to be in Thailand when the flood gates open. Road congestion, sky high prices, increased drug and alcohol issues, sex tourist galore. Will be a nightmare.

 

 

[Peter Denis]

11 minutes ago, Stygge said:

Tourism 20 % of GNP? I think it´s more. The other day I read about an alarm call from police autorithies calling for alternative income sources for the police.
It turned out that a surprisingly large part of the unofficial salary consists of extortions from tourists.  Now when tourists are gone they are refered to their official meager salary which doesn´t suffice so they are forced to take bank loans and are put heavily in debt. I bet such costs are not in the official GNP statistics.

For the regular police it is indeed quite easy to extort tourists, as tourists are often not aware of the local customs and their rights and do not want any police-trouble during their holiday, also a 500 THB fine is pocket-money for them.  So in the absence of tourists, they 'suffer'.

But for Immigration police it have been and still are Golden Times, as border closures and entry restrictions make border-hops as good as impossible, and so to stay legally in the country longer-term stayers now need to apply for extensions at their local IO. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Peter Denis

[rct99q]

4 minutes ago, Stygge said:

Tourism 20 % of GNP? I think it´s more. The other day I read about an alarm call from police autorithies calling for alternative income sources for the police.
It turned out that a surprisingly large part of the unofficial salary consists of extortions from tourists.  Now when tourists are gone they are refered to their official meager salary which doesn´t suffice so they are forced to take bank loans and are put heavily in debt. I bet such costs are not in the official GNP statistics.

 

They got a large amount for check stops. Locals and tourists. Mostly locals. However these have mostly been shut down due to covid. Prior to this i would go thru three check points taking my daughter to school. Now, none. So the whole "tourist" thing is not correct. Not sure about extortion. Been here 10 years plus, thousands of check points, and have paid a total of 400 baht for not wearing a helmet and no motorcycle license. That was years ago. Not paid a fine since. But i have full car and bike license, insurance, wear a helmet, and speak passable Thai. Breaking the law and then paying a fine for it, is not extortion. 

[rangerboy]

21 hours ago, rooster59 said:

TAT chief admits it could be THREE YEARS before Thai tourism is back to normal

 

Image: The Bangkok Insight

 

Following widespread criticism that Thailand's tourism authorities were being overly optimistic some realism and acceptance of the future is starting to set in.

 

The penny seems to have finally dropped with Tourism of Thailand governor Yutthasak Suphasorn who was speaking to The Bangkok Insight yesterday. 

 

Though he still expressed hope that the so-called "vaccine passport" could help by ending tourists' need to quarantine.

 

His comments come as industry leaders have urged the government to save what is left of the ailing tourism sector - 20% of Thai GDP at least - before it is too late and there is nothing for foreign tourists to return to.

 

Yuttthasak was no longer plucking figures from the ether about 10 million foreign tourists visiting this year. In fact no figures were given at all.

 

His comments were much more guarded though there was still some cause for optimism in his remarks.

 

He said that it would be 2 to 3 years before Thailand's tourism sector was back to anything like normal. He said he expects foreigners to start coming again by mid-year "but not fully". 

 

He thought that this January had seen the worst of Covid and things were looking brighter now.

 

He expected Thais to start travelling again at Songkran (in April) claiming that they were raring to go. He expected the government to be facillitating this. 

 

Last year the entire festival was cancelled amid fears of a spread of the virus, notes Thaivisa. What form it takes this year remains to be seen and will largely depend on what degree the second wave outbreak is under control come the tradition Thai New Year holidays.

 

Yutthasak admitted the tourism operators were in dire straits; he stressed the need for support for staff and downtime to be used in what he called "upskill" and "reskill" of workers.

 

He observed that the tourism economy was an important driver for the wider Thai economy.

 

The governor struck a positive note when it came to certain aspects of the return of foreign tourists.

 

He said that he was receiving good reports from 29 TAT offices worldwide regarding vaccine programs abroad.

 

He cited the example of the Scandinavians who he claimed all wanted to beat a path to Thailand's door in the hot season.

 

Thaivisa notes that this seemed strange. Scandinavians were previously well known for largely ignoring Thailand in the hot season and in the European summer, favoring places like Krabi in particular in the cold European winter.

 

Many TAT offices, he said, pointed to the return of foreign tourists to Thailand in the FOURTH quarter. Previously he was bullish about the third quarter that begins in June. 

 

He also noted that tourism minister Pipat Ratchakitprakan's "vaccine passport" plan had merit and had been discussed at a small cabinet committee. 

 

If given the go ahead this would see foreigners not having to quarantine when they come to Thailand. 

 

All along since the days of the much ridiculed STV, quarantine has been seen by everyone outside the tourism ministry and TAT as a major obstacle to foreign tourism. 

 

The special tourist visa is now not even being mentioned.

 

Other tourism leaders quoted by the media also put faith in a vaccine passport and said that government support for tourism businesses needed to be fast before they went under.

 

Yutthasak said they needed to "grit their teeth".

 

Government policy regarding tourism needed to be clear, said the leaders.

 

And therein lies the nub of the matter. 

 

Critics have noted the "flip-flop" of the Thai government pinning their hopes on one false dawn after another. They have said there is a lack of overall strategy with different ministries, departments and individuals competing for the limelight with one ill thought out scheme after another. 

 

Now many are pointing fingers when it comes to the rollout of vaccinations inside Thailand. 

 

With June before mass vaccinations begin some are saying this is too slow while the whole procurement process of vaccination doses, the companies involved and possible vested interests, are all coming under increased scrutiny both in Thailand and abroad. 

 

Comments from senior leaders like health minister Anutin Charnvirakul and DPM Prawit Wongsuwan in dismissing criticism and being economical with information have done nothing to allay concerns.

 

Source: The Bangkok Insight

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2021-02-06

 

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3 years  is a long shot we need tourism back here fast its not going to happen we also need when they arrive a very weak bhart sadly thats not going to happen as well 

We however have got through the last year somehow and will do our best to get through this year 

 

[ChakaKhan]

21 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

 

Someone please think of the poor bargirls!!  Too Bookoo!!!

[Mr Meeseeks]

11 hours ago, ukrules said:

It's going to be interesting to see how they treat people when they do finally start to return in a few years time.

Much the same I expect. 

 

One thing I have found about the Thais is they very rarely recognise, take responsibity for, or correct any of their mistakes. 

[Stygge]

18 minutes ago, rct99q said:

They got a large amount for check stops. Locals and tourists. Mostly locals. However these have mostly been shut down due to covid. Prior to this i would go thru three check points taking my daughter to school. Now, none. So the whole "tourist" thing is not correct. Not sure about extortion. Been here 10 years plus, thousands of check points, and have paid a total of 400 baht for not wearing a helmet and no motorcycle license. That was years ago. Not paid a fine since. But i have full car and bike license, insurance, wear a helmet, and speak passable Thai. Breaking the law and then paying a fine for it, is not extortion. 

I agree with you there but "looking the other way" money from controling tourist fueled bars and nightclubs now closed is a great loss.

[ChakaKhan]

13 hours ago, NoComment said:

Schrodinger's cat and TAT!

Pavlovs Dog could not be reached for comment.. ????