Negative test before enter Thailand, then why daily positives in ASQ?

[Nismooo]

I never understood why so many people tests positive in ASQ here in Thai when a negative test is required to enter?

 

-Could it be that the tests dont really work properly but if thats the case, why would the ”negative” test after ASQ be anymore reliable than the ”negative” test that was required before boarding the plane?

 

-Or that people could be infected but in the very early stage so the tests dont yet recognize the virus? (Under the minimum amount of virus to be detected in a test)

 

-Or maybe people get infected on the planes/airports?

 

-Or maybe even in quarantine?

 

-Or people use fake negative test certificates?

 

Im not saying it must be one of these reasons, its was just what i came up with in my head. Would be interesting to hear peoples thoughts on this.

[onebir]

5 minutes ago, Nismooo said:

-Or that people could be infected but in the very early stage so the tests dont yet recognize the virus? (Under the minimum amount of virus to be detected in a test)

 

-Or maybe people get infected on the planes/airports?

I think it's these two; it takes a while for someone who's infected to start producing enough virus particles for the RNA to be detectable, and there have been cases of infection on flights.

[Puccini]

1 hour ago, Nismooo said:

Negative test before enter Thailand, then why daily positives in ASQ?

FAKE NEWS.

 

1. Arriving passengers are not submitted to a SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19) test before being granted permission to enter Thailand. The requirement is a negative test result dated not earlier than 72 hours prior to the departure of the flight.

 

2. The OP gives no link to an official report stating that there are "daily positives" in ASQ.

 

[Nismooo]

Daily reports by media such as Bangkok Post and Nation Thailand of new infections in quarantine is fake news?

 

Ok maybe its fake or i just misunderstood it.. how about removing ”daily” then and replace it with ”sometimes”?

 

Or do you mean its completely fake and if so, which media are reliable because i only know these two outlets. 

 

Thanks

 

 

[Scott]

Troll post removed. 

 

[mtls2005]

6 hours ago, Nismooo said:

-Or that people could be infected but in the very early stage so the tests dont yet recognize the virus? (Under the minimum amount of virus to be detected in a test)

 

This one, for the majority if I had to guess. I haven't seen any summary detail of numbers, test days (in quarantine). It's out there but maybe from multiple sources.

 

 

The daily "imported" case numbers seem to be in the ~ 12-ish range.  That has never seemed crazy high?

 

I'm not sure but I think Thais are excluded from the 72 hr pre flight PCR test requirement? That said, not that many Thais mentioned in the daily figure, maybe one-ish per day, if that now.

 

 

[treetops]

14 hours ago, Nismooo said:

Daily reports by media such as Bangkok Post and Nation Thailand of new infections in quarantine is fake news?

 

No you are quite right and there are frequent reports of infections being found in quarantine.  All of the reasons in your OP probably contribute to these, but I don't see it as a major cause for concern.

[tomazbodner]

Could be fake tests, issue with the quality of the tests and those performing them, etc...

 

But could also be the time it takes for the virus load to increase to the point the tests detect it, or the passengers could be infected after they had the test, like at airports, in the planes, etc.

[Mike Rodik]

if pcr test gets over 35x, you get...

[FritsSikkink]

On ‎2‎/‎7‎/‎2021 at 1:34 AM, Nismooo said:

I never understood why so many people tests positive in ASQ here in Thai when a negative test is required to enter?

 

-Could it be that the tests dont really work properly but if thats the case, why would the ”negative” test after ASQ be anymore reliable than the ”negative” test that was required before boarding the plane?

 

-Or that people could be infected but in the very early stage so the tests dont yet recognize the virus? (Under the minimum amount of virus to be detected in a test)

 

-Or maybe people get infected on the planes/airports?

 

-Or maybe even in quarantine?

 

-Or people use fake negative test certificates?

 

Im not saying it must be one of these reasons, its was just what i came up with in my head. Would be interesting to hear peoples thoughts on this.

Incubation time, going to the airport, infected on the plane

[pseudorabies]

Some of the positives are returning Thai nationals who, depending on the airline weren't tested prior to boarding. This also give an opportunity for non-Thais who previously tested negative to be infected.

 

Also, I remember hearing something recently about fake covid test results. 

[ronaldo0]

Time from test results before getting on plane arriving till time of next test , infected untested Thais on plane with tested non Thais and lastly bad luck and unclean areas or places .

[grumbleweed]

Just a thought but...

Considering that visitors must have insurance, does a positive test result enable even more money to be gouged from the foreigner?

If so, then remember where we are.

[hugocnx]

On 2/7/2021 at 1:34 AM, Nismooo said:

I never understood why so many people tests positive in ASQ here in Thai when a negative test is required to enter?

 

-Could it be that the tests dont really work properly but if thats the case, why would the ”negative” test after ASQ be anymore reliable than the ”negative” test that was required before boarding the plane?

 

-Or that people could be infected but in the very early stage so the tests dont yet recognize the virus? (Under the minimum amount of virus to be detected in a test)

 

-Or maybe people get infected on the planes/airports?

 

-Or maybe even in quarantine?

 

-Or people use fake negative test certificates?

 

Im not saying it must be one of these reasons, its was just what i came up with in my head. Would be interesting to hear peoples thoughts on this.

The test cannot recognize the virus since the virus was never officialy 'isolated'. So tests are done on assumptions. It can all be found back if you do some research. So same goes for vaccines.

Edited February 8, 2021 by hugocnx

[Jumbo1968]

I believe all airlines require a negative test prior to a flight wether Thai or not now maybe except Thai Air. 

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 2/7/2021 at 2:49 AM, Puccini said:

The OP gives no link to an official report stating that there are "daily positives" in ASQ.

 

OK, here's one.

 

Coronavirus - Thailand Situation Reports

 

I only went back ten days but on every single day, it reports cases found in quarantine.

 

I can't say that I read the daily reports in the local press (or here on TVF) every single day but I usually do, and I can't recall a day when I looked in the last month or so, when there weren't cases discovered by ASQ testing.

[Chalong circle]

Until recently, Thais on Thai airways flights did not have to show a PCR test before boarding... Thai Airways staff did complain about that from what I know.

[rabas]

In simple terms.

 

February 1

February 3     PCR test

Feburary 6     Fly to BKK

 

If you get covid anytime after February 1, the Feb 3 test will be negative.

Later you will test positive in ASQ.

 

This is because of incubation period, true for most all infections. The test is not  meant to block cases entering Thailand. That is what ASQ is for.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by rabas

[scorecard]

14 minutes ago, Chalong circle said:

Until recently, Thais on Thai airways flights did not have to show a PCR test before boarding... Thai Airways staff did complain about that from what I know.

Interesting. I

 

I've also seen reports that on TG repat. flights the crew weren't too serious about their PPE, little monitoring of cleanliness in toilets and seats/seat backs, everywhere. Passengers with masks under their chins again and again and crew not asking them to put their masks on properly. Passengers sleeping for hours with mask out of position, not corrected. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by scorecard

[scorecard]

47 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

OK, here's one.

 

Coronavirus - Thailand Situation Reports

 

I only went back ten days but on every single day, it reports cases found in quarantine.

 

I can't say that I read the daily reports in the local press (or here on TVF) every single day but I usually do, and I can't recall a day when I looked in the last month or so, when there weren't cases discovered by ASQ testing.

Seen one report of 12 passengers off one flight tested positive on day 3? in ASQ.

[Nismooo]

22 minutes ago, rabas said:

In simple terms.

 

February 1

February 3     PCR test

Feburary 6     Fly to BKK

 

If you get covid anytime after February 1, the Feb 3 test will be negative.

Later you will test positive in ASQ.

 

This is because of incubation period, true for most all infections. The test is not  meant to block cases entering Thailand. That is what ASQ is for.

 

 

Seems logic to me.. ????

 

First test is kind of a frontline defense while ASQ is what really matters.

[Paiman]

5 hours ago, Mike Rodik said:

if pcr test gets over 35x, you get...

https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/questioning-unreliable-pcr-testing-is-hardly-trivial

Partialy copied bellow from link above.

 

Let's recap: Asymptomatic people with positive test results account for the large majority of cases, thanks to the FDA approving the use of PCR tests with unusually high cycle thresholds in order to detect even the smallest fraction of a fragment. Credit can also be given to the CDC for conveniently sanctioning any fragment detection as a confirmed case of COVID-19. In this way, Dr. Katz understandably dismisses infections of SARS2 virus and cases of COVID disease as semantics because the health authorities curiously treat them as one-in-the-same. Even if they are not.

 

 

PCR Cycle Thresholds Beyond 35 Meaningless

The established rule of thumb is cycle thresholds greater than 30 are unreliable and require culturing and clinical observation to confirm live/active infection and/or illness/disease. Culture thresholds greater than 35 are meaningless and likely detecting remnant viral fragments, resulting in mostly false positives. Finally all cycle thresholds 40 and above are junk and should automatically be considered negative. Better yet, prohibit testing cycle thresholds greater than 35 and exponentially reduce false positives and uncertainty.

[Moonlover]

1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

OK, here's one.

 

Coronavirus - Thailand Situation Reports

 

I only went back ten days but on every single day, it reports cases found in quarantine.

 

I can't say that I read the daily reports in the local press (or here on TVF) every single day but I usually do, and I can't recall a day when I looked in the last month or so, when there weren't cases discovered by ASQ testing.

If you were to go back for the whole period ever repat flights began, which is almost a year now you probably find cases of Covid during quarantine every single day.

 

The reason is quite simple. Thais returning to their home country on these flights are not subject to PCR tests prior to their flight. The rational for that is that a Thai has the right to return to his own country, just as we do to ours. Therefor it would be unfair and unjust to prevent his return because he cannot or could not get a test or was found positive.

 

That's why they have quarantine and the system seems to have worked very well.

 

[pseudorabies]

24 minutes ago, Paiman said:

https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/questioning-unreliable-pcr-testing-is-hardly-trivial

Partialy copied bellow from link above.

 

Let's recap: Asymptomatic people with positive test results account for the large majority of cases, thanks to the FDA approving the use of PCR tests with unusually high cycle thresholds in order to detect even the smallest fraction of a fragment. Credit can also be given to the CDC for conveniently sanctioning any fragment detection as a confirmed case of COVID-19. In this way, Dr. Katz understandably dismisses infections of SARS2 virus and cases of COVID disease as semantics because the health authorities curiously treat them as one-in-the-same. Even if they are not.

 

 

PCR Cycle Thresholds Beyond 35 Meaningless

The established rule of thumb is cycle thresholds greater than 30 are unreliable and require culturing and clinical observation to confirm live/active infection and/or illness/disease. Culture thresholds greater than 35 are meaningless and likely detecting remnant viral fragments, resulting in mostly false positives. Finally all cycle thresholds 40 and above are junk and should automatically be considered negative. Better yet, prohibit testing cycle thresholds greater than 35 and exponentially reduce false positives and uncertainty.

I don't think false positives are the issue here.  If PCR accuracy is the problem (probably isn't) then it would be false negatives.

[Paiman]

Please have a read

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

 

 

 

 

[NanLaew]

2 hours ago, Nismooo said:

3 hours ago, rabas said:

In simple terms.

 

February 1

February 3     PCR test

Feburary 6     Fly to BKK

 

If you get covid anytime after February 1, the Feb 3 test will be negative.

Later you will test positive in ASQ.

 

This is because of incubation period, true for most all infections. The test is not  meant to block cases entering Thailand. That is what ASQ is for.

 

Expand  

 

Seems logic to me.. ????

 

First test is kind of a frontline defense while ASQ is what really matters.

 

I agree. The testing once in quarantine are the only ones that count. The first test and the pre-flight certification paper trail is primarily a deterrent to non-essential travelers. Otherwise everyone and their dog would be jetting all over for a 'well deserved' break. The virus doesn't have wings or legs so it needs people moving about to spread.

[rabas]

9 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

 

I agree. The testing once in quarantine are the only ones that count. The first test and the pre-flight certification paper trail is primarily a deterrent to non-essential travelers. Otherwise everyone and their dog would be jetting all over for a 'well deserved' break. The virus doesn't have wings or legs so it needs people moving about to spread.

The first test and the pre-flight certification paper trail is primarily a deterrent to non-essential travelers.

 

Bingo. And that's why Thai are not tested. Returning home is essential.

[jdlancaster]

So, from my experience, you have a few issues:

 

1. False negatives: Someone may have contracted the virus enroute or a few days prior to the test. They just haven't built up the viral RNA load high enough for accurate results. There are also the untested Thais.

 

2. False positives: depending on the test, if you are overly strict your results can give false positives. This could mean running the PCR cycle more than 35 cycles , which has many chemical artifact issues, or the assays used base pair lengths as small as 25 base pairs (FDA recommends 100 contiguous base pairs), or human error. See peer-reviewed example: https://www.aacc.org/science-and-research/scientific-shorts/2020/false-positive-results-in-real-time-reverse-transcription-polymeras

 

3. Fake certificates: I can make something up in Adobe or whatever app... many of us can.

 

In the end... the hassle reduced the overall load of passengers. Its purpose while sitting next to an untested Thai.... well... probably not a scientifically based recommendation. It was overly Draconian but effective.... except for the fact that you can just walk over from Burma or wherever.....

[Puccini]

8 hours ago, scorecard said:

Seen one report of 12 passengers off one flight tested positive on day 3? in ASQ.

I am annoyed that you can find mention of positive tests in ASQ in the WHO situation reports and I cannot. What am I doing wrong?

Edited February 8, 2021 by Puccini

[Puccini]

8 hours ago, Moonlover said:

If you were to go back for the whole period ever repat flights began, which is almost a year now you probably find cases of Covid during quarantine every single day.

 

The reason is quite simple. Thais returning to their home country on these flights are not subject to PCR tests prior to their flight. The rational for that is that a Thai has the right to return to his own country, just as we do to ours. Therefor it would be unfair and unjust to prevent his return because he cannot or could not get a test or was found positive.

 

That's why they have quarantine and the system seems to have worked very well.

 

The Thai nationals on these repatriation flights organised by Thai embassies and generally operated by Thai Airways are not tested for Covid-19 before the flight. I believe that, with few exceptions, these Thai passengers all choose to go into the free SQ (state quarantine), not ASQ (alternate state quarantine). When reports or news articles mention positive tests in quarantine, do they correctly list separate numbers for each type of quarantine? I am asking because this topic is specifically about positive tests in ASQ.