Tourism reopening: Four phases on the cards - No quarantine at all from October

[sqwakvfr]

3 Requirements will be in place for a long time:

1.  Covid 19 RT-PCR tests(before departure and upon arrival)

2. Covid 19 Insurance

3. A short Quarantine(but will be called an observation period).  I believe this can be extended?

if these are the only requirements in place in January 2022 then I can live with them and take my annual trip back home then.  But only time will tell.  

 

 

[Moncul]

1 hour ago, Andrew65 said:

It must be incredibly hard to know whom was infected by whom. And, whether or not the whom that did so was a vaccinated whom?

Not really if you do contact tracing properly. As for vaccinations, every country is maintaining a database of this, and some already have digital apps and digital certificates.

[Ubonfarang]

Low risk countries, like the Uk ??????Are you nuts ?? ????

Never heard of the Covid19 Brittisch  variant ? 

 

[Moncul]

3 minutes ago, Ubonfarang said:

Low risk countries, like the Uk ??????Are you nuts ?? ????

Never heard of the Covid19 Brittisch  variant ? 

 

No, but I've heard of the British variant. Most of the reputable vaccines work against it.

[LennyW]

25 minutes ago, Scofield said:

What is the official steer as opposed to speculation and silly ideas? It’s still 16 days not allowed outside?

Right now that is correct.

[Iknow]

So forget about 2021 !

[Maliproto]

2 hours ago, internationalism said:

"Phase 3: is called the "Sand Box" and will be done from October to December in seven specified tourism provinces that are mostly by the sea. This could involve one day in quarantine "

hence the title is misleading - there would be 1 day quarantine.

And if positive test it will be much longer, including hospitalisation.

At the same time very few in thailand would have vax by themselves. So virus can be passed on them. And tourists won't be coming because of the possible outbrake

While you're picking apart the article you should bear in mind that the article clearly says that all this is nothing more than speculation at this stage, it is not policy.

The article does not say  "1 day in quarantine would be necessary", it says that "one day's quarantine could be necessary".

[Guderian]

1 hour ago, Rainville said:

Quarantine will be lifted for vaccinated tourists way before January. By September 1st at the latest there won't be any quarantine for inoculated tourism. 

 

I'm happy to take bets people.

Complete nonsense.

The data so far indicates that vaccination reduces the likelihood of you transmitting the virus by around 50%, but possibly up to 70%. Even if the higher number is correct, that would still mean out of 100,000 vaccinated tourists arriving, roughly 30,000 of them will still have the potential to carry and transit the virus to the Thai population. Within a month or two, the majority of the local people in the tourist areas would probably have contracted Covid and they'd be dropping like flies. The CCSA is well aware of this and will never permit it to happen.

Watch for serious progress on the Thai vaccination programme, only when that's getting somewhere useful will the CCSA even start thinking about reducing, never mind dropping, the quarantine requirement

[Matthew2027]

UK NOT low risk, are they crazy..... AUSTRALIA IS LOW RISK...

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, treetops said:

Apparently figures from Israel, UK and USA indicate that vaccinations are greatly reducing the capability of those vaccinated to infect others, which has been a major concern and why waiting on Thailand's program to kick in was being mooted.

If these figures are accurate there could be no need to wait on the local program.

And this is what Phipat is banking on.

However, from a travelers point of view, why Holiday in a Country where contagion is likely. I still think an International list of Countries for safe travel will be drawn up, as so much is at risk just to give a few people the chance of a Holiday abroad, and is a very high price to pay for Governments that are already spending massive amounts of money on this Virus control..

Upon your return to their Homeland, they could infect all their family and friends that have not received any Vaccination, putting more stress on these Governments.

[natway09]

Interesting that the "safest countries like Australia or NZ do not even get a mention ?

Same twaddle put together without putting the brain in gear first ?

[DJBenz]

37 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Please provide a relialble educated link that shows the AZ is 'almost totally ineffective' against the the SA variant. Most reports this month show that it is effective against the SA strain, so please provide medical your evidence of your statement 

Apart from media reports, there seems to be little tangible data however, there are a couple of pre-print (yet to be peer reviewed) studies that suggest it's not particularly effective (in the order of 20%) although 'almost totally ineffective' could be argued as semantics. I don't suppose any vaccine program would proceed with a drug with 20% efficacy.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n597

Quote

Vaccines developed against the original virus have also been found to be less effective against B.1.351 (SA Variant)

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/astrazeneca-vaccine-preprint-covid-19-variant-response#:~:text=New preprint data suggest the,to the South Africa variant.&text=In fact%2C the effect is,first wave versus the B. 

Quote

The to-be-reviewed research, from a team of South African institution investigators and the Oxford Vaccine Group, indicated the modified adenovirus-based vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) had a vaccine efficacy of 21.9% (95% CI, -49.9 to 59.8) in protecting from COVID-19 more than 14 days after the booster dose was administered to seronegative patients, versus placebo.

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by DJBenz

[Moncul]

9 minutes ago, DJBenz said:

Apart from media reports, there seems to be little tangible data however, there are a couple of pre-print (yet to be peer reviewed) studies that suggest it's not particularly effective (in the order of 20%) although 'almost totally ineffective' could be argued as semantics. I don't suppose any vaccine program would proceed with a drug with 20% efficacy.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n597

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/astrazeneca-vaccine-preprint-covid-19-variant-response#:~:text=New preprint data suggest the,to the South Africa variant.&text=In fact%2C the effect is,first wave versus the B. 

 

However vaccine efficacy has nothing to do with the vaccines ability to prevent hospitalisation and death (and virus shedding). It's simply the ability to prevent infection in the first place. A lot of people seem to blur these lines.

[simple1]

1 hour ago, jaiyen said:

What about Australia ? We have Zero cases. Maybe Thailand has forgot about how much Australian people have done for them.

Just checked Oz govt Covid app. 5 new cases past 24 hours, 117 active cases. Far better than all (?) countries, so odd Oz not included in the alleged list.

[DJBenz]

8 minutes ago, Moncul said:

However vaccine efficacy has nothing to do with the vaccines ability to prevent hospitalisation and death (and virus shedding). It's simply the ability to prevent infection in the first place. A lot of people seem to blur these lines.

Absolutely. I also think that a couple of - possibly flawed, with possibly insufficient participants (peer review will tell) - papers have been sent to pre-print and the media has picked up on them and published "AZ vaccine not effective against SA variant" stories which have then circulated and become 'fact' by the old "repeat something enough and it becomes true" method.

The UK's British Heart Foundation currently says:

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/covid-variant#BRAoxford

Quote

Is the Oxford vaccine effective against the South African strain of Covid?

A small study of 2,000 people in South Africa has shown that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine offers minimal protection against mild cases of the South African variant.

The study, which was based people of an average age of 31, shows that protection may be as low as 10%. The research wasn’t able to determine whether it protects against serious illness or hospitalisation, because this group of people were at low risk of serious illness. Other research suggests that the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the South African strain. More research is needed in this area.

Oxford University is working on adapting the vaccine to ensure that it protects against this variant, as well as other strains. They have said a ‘booster’ jab could be available by autumn 2021.

There are currently only a small number of cases of the South African variant in the UK, and the government has put measures in place to minimise community spread of this variant.

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by DJBenz
Clarity

[John Drake]

8 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Just checked Oz govt Covid app. 5 new cases past 24 hours, 117 active cases. Far better than all (?) countries, so odd Oz not included in the alleged list.

But funnily enough, China seems to be on every list.

[onebir]

Quote

Phase 2 - June to September: would involve the setting up of an exclusive travel area or "seal route" in which tourists could move around while doing Area Quarantine for 10 days.

Let's clap for that! Arf arf!

[Tropicalevo]

9 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Just checked Oz govt Covid app. 5 new cases past 24 hours, 117 active cases. Far better than all (?) countries, so odd Oz not included in the alleged list.

Maybe it is because OZ and NZ have zero International flights.

Aren't the borders still locked?

[RichardColeman]

20 minutes ago, Moncul said:

However vaccine efficacy has nothing to do with the vaccines ability to prevent hospitalisation and death (and virus shedding). It's simply the ability to prevent infection in the first place. A lot of people seem to blur these lines.

My understanding is different from yours then. My understanding is yes it should prevent most infections, but in a lot of cases if you DO get it it will give you mild or moderate illness rather than hospitalization and death. And to be honest I can live with mild or moderate symptoms rather than death.

[Andrew65]

As someone else mentioned, maybe this is patly to do with the ability of Thailand to vaccinate very large numbers it's own people, as much as whether visitors/tourists are vaccinated?

 

[SiamAndy]

By next week there will be a new proposed plan or "re-clarification" of this plan.

[Deli]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

UK? Italy? Germany? "Low risk?

No, but spending power and dare to travel

[apetryxx]

Just another hair brained scheme that will change daily. The world can thank Donald Trump and his Operation Warp Speed (sorry all you Trump haters but it’s true) that along with major pharmaceutical companies, the U.S. developed these vaccines and distribution networks in record time. He brushed the bureaucracy to the side, something our government in Thailand seems unable to do, and operated with a singular focus of a business man not a politician. The U. S. now has several hundred million doses being administered in an orderly and prioritized fashion regardless of one’s nationality, race or other biased reasons. There is no reason why everyone in Thailand souldn’t be immunized in the same fashion provided they want it. Look at the results elsewhere and stop reinventing the wheel.

[Scofield]

1 hour ago, LennyW said:

Right now that is correct.

The danger with these silly statements is you’ll get lunatics booking flights without knowing it’s just a childish think tank at work.

[gunderhill]

Only 4  phases  oh dear , no, I want at least 12 phases, that's  much more  safe.

[Zikomat]

Looks like the Phase 1 will be prolonged until year 2022, at least. 

[Scofield]

26 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

My understanding is different from yours then. My understanding is yes it should prevent most infections, but in a lot of cases if you DO get it it will give you mild or moderate illness rather than hospitalization and death. And to be honest I can live with mild or moderate symptoms rather than death.

There is always going to be a death rate with this now. No escaping it.

It’s sad but you better get used to it.

[bermondburi]

1 hour ago, GrandPapillon said:

as usual, Thai politicians are living in bubbles and drawing plans in the sky, I wouldn't pay attention to their silly plans, we all know in Thailand that the best plan is no plan ????

if the world open up in July, then the Thai will have no choice but open up and keep up with the competition

anyway, don't expect cheap flights, it's going to be hard to catch a plane to go anywhere, limited seats etc...

I'm looking at my wife and children visiting me soon. 55k baht for 3 return tickets on Qatar. That works for me. ????

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thaivisa notes that this is all speculation based on Thai media sources at the Ministry of Tourism and Sports and potential visitors to Thailand are advised to await official clarification probably this Friday.

Speculation and Pipats dream... safe countries such as UK... they had the worst cases imaginable & he wants to invite them in before Thailand is properly immunised?

[sambum]

"low risk countries like the UK"

??? :-

No 5

UK

4,258,438 cases

125,516 deaths

Edited March 15, 2021 by sambum