Thailand reports biggest daily jump in new COVID-19 cases

[robblok]

41 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Songkran today, with so many travelling yesterday and officials on holidays along with general public, I'm "guessing" at a decrease in official numbers due to less testing in announcement later this morning.

I wonder if they will mention this caveat if they post better numbers. Thais seem to always want to show positive news. So if its a lower number (what is to be expected with less tests and people traveling) i wonder if they mention the possible cause of the lower numbers or just pass it off as positive news. 

[Excel]

56 minutes ago, placeholder said:

That's not what efficacy or effectiveness means in this context.

Really ? For your education

ef·fi·ca·cy

/ˈefəkəsē/

Learn to pronounce

 

noun

FORMAL

 

1. the ability to produce a desired or intended result.

   "there is little information on the efficacy of this treatment"

 

[rabas]

59 minutes ago, placeholder said:

2 hours ago, Excel said:

So it only works on half the people. That means 500 million in China are ok.

That's not what efficacy or effectiveness means in this context.

 

Actually it is. Efficacy or effectiveness formulas use this concept. So 50% efficacy means  50% 'ok' and 50% not ok. The different efficacies (dead, ill, mild, PCR positive) simply use different criteria for 'ok' but they are all calculated the same.

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by rabas

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

 

Actually it is. Efficacy or effectiveness formulas use this concept. So 50% efficacy means  50% 'ok' and 50% not ok. The different efficacies (dead, ill, sniffles, PCR positive) simply use different criteria for 'ok' but they are all calculated the same.

 

No it doesn't. Actually what it means is that if say 100 people out of all the people in an unvaccinated control group come down with covid symptoms, then a 50 percent efficacy rate means that only 50 out of all the people in the vaccinated control group have come down with symptoms.

It says nothing at all about the severity of symptoms. A mild cough to a fatal case of pneumonia are both scored the same by this standard of measurement.

[Excel]

9 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Actually it is. Efficacy or effectiveness formulas use this concept. So 50% efficacy means  50% 'ok' and 50% not ok. The different efficacies (dead, ill, mild, PCR positive) simply use different criteria for 'ok' but they are all calculated the same.

 

I have already corrected "Placeholder" for his inaccurate response but thanks for your reply anyway, its good that some of us understand the English Language. but I appreciate for some on this forum English is not their 1st language.

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Excel said:

I have already corrected "Placeholder" for his inaccurate response but thanks for your reply anyway, its good that some of us understand the English Language. but I appreciate for some on this forum English is not their 1st language.

Now all you have to do is correct the CDC and their blatant misunderstanding.

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section6.html

[rabas]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

No it doesn't. Actually what it means is that if say 100 people out of all the people in an unvaccinated control group come down with covid symptoms, then a 50 percent efficacy rate means that only 50 out of all the people in the vaccinated control group have come down with symptoms.

It says nothing at all about the severity of symptoms. A mild cough to a fatal case of pneumonia are both scored the same by this standard of measurement.

Because it's applicable to all those categories. Otherwise you have echoed what I said.

 

Dr. Neil Polhemus Published under: statistical analysis, data analysis, efficacy, relative risk

Edited April 13, 2021 by rabas

[Mavideol]

10 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

 

 

I do believe they are in Phase 3 right now.  But it's not finished.  IMHO, it's a tied and true way to do a vaccine.  The bigger worries should be with Pfizer and Moderna.  mRNA jabs are brand new technology.  Who knows the long term effects?  Nobody.  Sinovac is a traditional jab.  Though a lower efficacy. And so far, no reports of any problems.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html#sinovac
 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/sinovac-covid-19-vaccine.html

 

How the Sinovac Vaccine Works

 

not very well from what Chinese doctors are saying

China's Sinovac vaccine is 50.7% effective against COVID-19, just reaching the threshold to be a vaccine worth using, a major trial showed

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinas-sinovac-vaccine-50-7-123134411.html

China CDC Director: Chinese COVID Vaccines ‘Don’t Have Very High Protection Rates’

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-cdc-director-chinese-covid-132225572.html

 

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, rabas said:

Yes it does,

 

Dr. Neil Polhemus Published under: statistical analysis, data analysis, efficacy, relative risk

read it again. It absolutely supports what I've been saying

 

" For example, the latest news from Pfizer stated that out of approximately 44,000 people that received either the vaccine or a placebo, 170 people contracted COVID-19. Of that 170, 162 had been given the Placebo while only 8 had received the vaccine. Expressed as a two-way table, these data are:"

 

In addition, the very studies that cited the lower efficacy rate of Coronavac, also state that it is extremely potent against death and serious symptoms. But by your logic, if Coronavac only resulted in 50% protection then one would expect half the number of deaths and serious symptoms in the vaccinated control group as in the unvaccinated control group.

Edited April 13, 2021 by placeholder

[Pla nin]

3 cheers for the UK 30 + million 1st doses done .

[Jai Dee]

Several argumentative and off-topic posts and replies have been removed.

[kimamey]

1 hour ago, Pla nin said:

3 cheers for the UK 30 + million 1st doses done .

The UK does seem to be doing a good job with vaccines although when we eventually come to examine how covid 19 was handled the earlier mistakes will need to be looked at as well. I know the government would rather just look at the good bits but that won't help us deal with future outbreaks.

 

I think we seem to have got things right in distributing vaccines based on need as far as I can tell although I know this hasn't worked perfectly.

 

At least we seem to be heading in the right direction.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

In addition, the very studies that cited the lower efficacy rate of Coronavac, also state that it is extremely potent against death and serious symptoms. But by your logic, if Coronavac only resulted in 50% protection then one would expect half the number of deaths and serious symptoms in the vaccinated control group as in the unvaccinated control group.

 

For others reading here, we had a good discussion about the issue of vaccine effectiveness earlier in this thread that started here:

 

 

In short, the 50% number that often surfaces in news reports re the Sinovac vaccine is one trial's report of it preventing symptomatic infections, even the mildest kind....

 

But according to the data released thus far, when it comes to preventing serious or hospitalization requiring cases and COVID deaths, Sinovac has very good performance on par with the various western vaccines.

 

The only caveat is... none of the data publicly reported for the Sinovac vaccine as yet has gone thru the peer reviewed journal publishing process... So the integrity of the data reporting remains somewhat in question.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, Mavideol said:

not very well from what Chinese doctors are saying

 

 

You gotta read past the headlines and into the details of what's been reported.. Below is a summary from Wikipedia:

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CoronaVac#Efficacy

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[onthedarkside]

Some off topic posts have been removed, as the two parties involved have moved the discussion to PMs.

 

[Elkski]

No one has commented on how few 20,000 hospital beds is for 70 million.  If 1000;cases a day they will be full in 2 weeks.   I guess , 6000 beds full now. 

Also no one is quoting all the reports about long term cases (long haulers) and the permanent damage being found in hearts and other organs of a large number of cases.  Even young super athlete's.  So while sinovac maybe near 100% at preventing death if 45% of people get it this means many more people are going to have permanent effects as well as being transmissive.  Plus 1 dose takes a long time to be effective.   How long ago did the TAT official get the sinovac? Or did he get AZ?   It is  sad a country that has had a year to prepare looks so much in panic.  Maybe I underestimate the importance of songkran but they had enough info to cancel it.   If on a ship it maybe mutiny time.   All you farangs who have been bragging about how Thailand has done and how your glad your there,  What say you now?

It is nice that medical costs will be covered.  But does this mean the hospitals will prefer patients with insurance? 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Elkski

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

24 minutes ago, Elkski said:

Also no one is quoting all the reports about long term cases (long haulers) and the permanent damage being found in hearts and other organs of a large number of cases.  Even young super athlete's.  So while sinovac maybe near 100% at preventing death if 45% of people get it this means many more people are going to have permanent effects as well as being transmissive.  Plus 1 dose takes a long time to be effective. 

 

The issue of so-called "long haul COVID" (symptoms sometimes very debilitating that persist for weeks and months) is a very serious and valid one... that's often ignored by people who only focus on the death rates for COVID....

 

But, AFAIK, the sub 50% number you refer to for the Sinovac vaccine pertains to any infection with any symptoms.... But when you're talking about COVID cases that require medical treatment and hospitalization, the Sinovac clinical trial data for that show much better results in line with the western vaccines.

 

Of course, I want to take the best, safest and most effective vaccine possible. But at the end of the day, what I really want is to make sure I don't have anything that requires medical treatment, hospitalization or ends up killing me. I'd be content with that.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

You gotta read past the headlines and into the details of what's been reported.. Below is a summary from Wikipedia:

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CoronaVac#Efficacy

 

sorry to disappoint/disagree with you but these reports made under China propaganda control, be so kind to check the Brazil and UAE recent reports and you see they match what the Chinese doctor is saying .... PS. don't tell me to do the research for you (Changed my mind and will help you, here it goes 555)

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/17/asia/sinovac-vaccine-asia-efficacy-intl-hnk/index.html

 

But the rollouts come despite a growing number of questions over the effectiveness of the shot, which last week was revealed to have an efficacy rate of just 50.38% in late-stage trials in Brazil -- significantly lower than earlier results showed. That rate only barely crosses the 50% efficacy threshold as set by the World Health Organization, and far lower than the 78% previously announced to much fanfare in China earlier this month.

 

Shocking report on Sinovac vaccinations: Increased Covid cases after using vaccine

 

https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/04/06/opinion/columnists/topanalysis/shocking-report-on-sinovac-vaccinations-increased-covid-cases-after-using-vaccine/860478/

 

Please, You gotta read past the headlines

 

????????????????????????  .... and they didn't mention the 9 deaths in HK after receiving the vaccine

 

China's Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine has 50.7 percent efficacy and has proved to be effective against the variants known as P1 and P2 that are prevalent in Brazil, latest data showed. Moreover, the Sinovac vaccine's efficacy rate can climb to 62.3 percent with an interval of more than 21 days between doses rather than 14 days.

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1220886.shtml

 

Sinovac vaccine effective against virus variants in Brazil; efficacy rises if injection interval is more than 21 days

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-china-vaccines-idUSKBN2BN1K8

 

Sinovac’s vaccine showed varied efficacy readings of between 50.65% and 83.5% based on trials from Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia.

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Mavideol

[Elkski]

To have Chinese doctors risk disappearing to say the sinovac has low efficacy is meaningful.  

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, Mavideol said:

sorry to disappoint/disagree with you but these reports made under China propaganda control, be so kind to check the Brazil and UAE recent reports and you see they match what the Chinese doctor is saying .... PS. don't tell me to do the research for you (Changed my mind and will help you, here it goes 555)

 

 

Nothing different there from what's been quoted above...  The point is, all the public data still shows Sinovac does as good a job as the others at keeping people out of the hospital and from dying...

 

However, as I pointed out in my original post comment, the one caveat with Sinovac right now remains that its reported clinical trial data has not gone thru the peer reviewed journal publishing proces... which creates some doubts.... On that, I agree.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, Elkski said:

To have Chinese doctors risk disappearing to say the sinovac has low efficacy is meaningful.  

 

The discussion there as reported in the news is about the vaccine's "efficacy," which in that context meant infections with any symptoms...

 

Honestly, I don't really care if I end up with a sore throat or a runny nose for a few days... But I don't want any serious medical issues, hospitalization or death. And Sinovac seems to meet that bill.

 

Right now... Thailand is using only two vaccines -- AZ and Sinovac... AZ has the blood clotting concern. Sinovac as the low efficacy for routine symptoms according to the limited info that's been made available...  Whatdya wanna do?

 

J&J isn't available here yet, even though the Thai govt has approved it. And there's no sign yet of if or when it will be available here... And Pfizer and Moderna haven't even been approved by the government here yet at all!

 

When the time comes that some vaccine is available to me, then I'll have to make the choice of whether to go with what's available, or hold out and wait...  Most medical experts advise, take whatever vaccine you can..as soon as you have the opportunity, especially if you're in one of the higher risk groups, such as retired folks.

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Elkski]

You are talking like people will be vaccinated tomorrow when Thai officials have said end of 2022 and that assumes not much hesitation in the population.   So what is the effective R nought  for sinovac population that get the vaccine with 50% .  Assuming this slow vax schedule so many will get the virus pre vax.  Hey maybe that is the real plan.  Natural herd defense.  Not the first country to think like this.  Even past US admin considered this. 

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The discussion there as reported in the news is about the vaccine's "efficacy," which in that context meant infections with any symptoms...

 

Honestly, I don't really care if I end up with a sore throat or a runny nose for a few days... But I don't want any serious medical issues, hospitalization or death. And Sinovac seems to meet that bill.

 

Exactly!!! With a tube jammed down my throat.

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

You gotta read past the headlines and into the details of what's been reported.. Below is a summary from Wikipedia:

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CoronaVac#Efficacy

 

and more propaganda to show ways of reporting/getting good efficiency rates, use the vaccine as a bargaining tool

 

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-14/China-continues-to-contribute-to-global-vaccine-distribution-YCquwiznFK/index.html

 

More than 60 countries have authorized the use of Chinese vaccines. China has donated or is donating COVID-19 vaccines to 69 developing countries in urgent need and is exporting vaccines to 43 countries, according to Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 7. 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 minutes ago, Elkski said:

You are talking like people will be vaccinated tomorrow when Thai officials have said end of 2022 and that assumes not much hesitation in the population.   So what is the effective R nought  for sinovac population that get the vaccine with 50% .  Assuming this slow vax schedule so many will get the virus pre vax.  Hey maybe that is the real plan.  Natural herd defense.  Not the first country to think like this.  Even past US admin considered this. 

 

They're saying they're gonna start providing their own locally produced AZ vaccine to the general public in Thailand starting in June... from a Thai production facility that's new and never done this same kind of thing before...  So we're gonna have to see just how that turns out, and on what timeframe.

 

BTW, the Thai government did say, at one point in Feb., that foreigners living here would be eligible for the free Thai government provided vaccines (meaning AZ). What they didn't say for farangs, is when, and in what order in the nationwide queue?

 

 

[Mavideol]

10 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The discussion there as reported in the news is about the vaccine's "efficacy," which in that context meant infections with any symptoms...

 

Honestly, I don't really care if I end up with a sore throat or a runny nose for a few days... But I don't want any serious medical issues, hospitalization or death. And Sinovac seems to meet that bill.

 

really no deaths or do you mean China doesn't report deaths and/or infections .... and I know what I am talking about, lived there for 12+ years

 

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/25/two-more-deaths-another-nine-temporary-facial-paralysis-cases-after-covid-vaccinations/

Two more deaths, another nine temporary facial paralysis cases after Covid vaccinations

The latest deaths mean 10 people have now died in the city after vaccination, nine of whom received the Chinese-made Sinovac jab

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Mavideol

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

11 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

and more propaganda to show ways of reporting/getting good efficiency rates, use the vaccine as a bargaining tool

 

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-14/China-continues-to-contribute-to-global-vaccine-distribution-YCquwiznFK/index.html

 

More than 60 countries have authorized the use of Chinese vaccines. China has donated or is donating COVID-19 vaccines to 69 developing countries in urgent need and is exporting vaccines to 43 countries, according to Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 7. 

 

 

 

What's your point?  Yes, China is using their vaccine(s) as a political bargaining chip and a way of building relationships with other countries...  And yes, their clinical trial data hasn't been peer reviewed yet, and not clear when/if  it will be.

 

I recognize that, but the political aspect really doesn't affect my personal opinions or judgments on the medical details relating to vaccines or my ultimate personal judgment about what I should do when it comes to making a vaccine choice.

 

Now... by the time a vaccine becomes available to me.... if the Sinovac trial results by then still haven't gone thru the peer review process, that's certainly a factor I would consider.

 

But the reality is...right now...for anyone living in Thailand and expecting a vaccine in the future, odds are their main choice is gonna be AZ thru the government's program...  The Sinovac vaccine is just a limited deal to tide them over until local AZ production comes online.

 

So probably best to focus on the particulars of the AZ vaccine...if you're living in Thailand.

 

And if the private Thai hospitals end up being able to buy and then re-sell imported vaccines to customers willing to pay, I'd wager, most of the hospitals WON'T be offer Sinovac for a fee.  It'll be some of the western vaccines instead.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

really no deaths or do you mean China doesn't report deaths and/or infections .... and I know what I am talking about, lived there for 12+ years

 

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/25/two-more-deaths-another-nine-temporary-facial-paralysis-cases-after-covid-vaccinations/

Two more deaths, another nine temporary facial paralysis cases after Covid vaccinations

The latest deaths mean 10 people have now died in the city after vaccination, nine of whom received the Chinese-made Sinovac jab

 

 

You can find the same kind of news reporting in the EU relating to deaths after AZ vaccinations there.  The question as always...is did the vaccine actually cause the problem, or the problem just happened as it does every day in the world with people having medical issues and dying...

 

[Bkk Brian]

27 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Nothing different there from what's been quoted above...  The point is, all the public data still shows Sinovac does as good a job as the others at keeping people out of the hospital and from dying...

 

However, as I pointed out in my original post comment, the one caveat with Sinovac right now remains that its reported clinical trial data has not gone thru the peer reviewed journal publishing proces... which creates some doubts.... On that, I agree.

 

Once/if Sinovac is approved by WHO it will have a little more credibility

Edited April 13, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[ThailandRyan]

Notices have now gone up in my condo building of a tenant who tested positive for covid yesterday and is now hospitalized.  Entire condo was sanitized today as well as the gym and pool area's being cleaned and now closed.  The excrement is now getting real.