Thailand reports 1,767 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths

[welshguy]

54 minutes ago, ChomDo said:

Wonder what the actual numbers could be since testing is kind of non existent compared to many other countries and also most infected people are probably asymptomatic and unaware anyway. With these higher numbers the system of taking everyone to the hospital might be out of question soon. Seems weird to be filling the beds with people who are not having much symptoms and would do fine resting at home.

The problem with that is.....many many Thais, live 2 or 3 or 4 or more to an apartment etc...so isolating at home is virtually impossible?

 

I mean, would all the people who live in that apartment/house/condo etc self isolate and not go to work etc?  Its not like in the west, where most countries governments will "look after" those self isolating , eg. financial help etc....Practically non existent in the land of smiles .

[rabas]

50 minutes ago, jojothai said:

Its not yet gone exponential on total cases., but could do so in the near future. see below chart.
On this you can only really consider from 15th December.
Therefore it is absolutely imperative to look at the trend in new cases and not total cases so we can judge if it is going to become exponential , the new cases currently do not support the case as an exponential growth.

 

You are not fitting the correct data.

 

To model an infectious disease , you should fit the UK strain that broke out starting about April 1. Try and start with whatever day had 26 cases, from there it increases.

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by rabas

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Report by The Nation on the new Samut Prakan cluster, and several other outbreaks showing the spread of the COVID pandemic around Thailand:

 

32 infected as new cluster emerges at private school in Samut Prakan

...

"Taweesin said that similar clusters had developed from people not wearing masks at a state enterprise in Udon Thani province where eight people were infected, a bank's head office in Bangkok where five were infected, a private company in Bangkok where three people were infected, a private company in Chonburi province where 23 people were infected, a private company in Samut Sakhon province where two were infected, three private companies in Nonthaburi province where 12 people were infected and a government agency in Pathum Thani province where four people were infected."

 

(more)

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30405026

 

 

[placnx]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

There's a lot of PR spin going on with the government's efforts to ramp up its hospital bed capacity by adding quickly assembled makeshift field hospital facilities.

 

This below was a post today by the MoPH regarding an expansion of facilities at its Bamrasnaradura Institute in Bangkok for treating infectious diseases such as COVID:

Department of Disease Control prepares for Field Hospital at Bamrasnaradura Institute

Link:

 

 

 

Vs. this was a report that appeared on the Chiang Mai City Life website several days ago regarding a new COVID field hospital there:

 

Photos from inside the women’s quarantine at the field hospital

 

https://www.chiangmaicitylife.com/citynews/covid-19/photos-from-inside-the-womens-quarantine-at-the-field-hospital/

 

 

"Photos from inside the government quarantine are showing a shambolic response to this order which will see anyone with the virus avoiding the government quarantine facing up to two years in jail.

 

In spite of being unprepared, it is reported that over 600 people are now housed in the government’s quarantine at the Chiang Mai Convention Centre."

 

The toilets look like a place to catch Covid.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The growing roster of hospitals having to quarantine their medical staff and sometimes reduce medical services to the public because incoming patients aren't being honest in disclosing their risk and exposure to COVID:

 

"Medical staff at many state hospitals have been forced into self-quarantine after patients failed to disclose they had been in contact with infected people.

 

Khon Kaen Hospital has ordered 105 medical staff to quarantine immediately after they have been in contact with COVID-19 patients, while Bhumibol Adulyadej Hospital in Bangkok has stopped receiving any new COVID-19 cases until April 30 with the same reason.

 

Samut Prakan Hospital and Naradhiwas Rajanagarindra Hospital also reported that their medical staff had contracted COVID-19 from patients who failed to give clear information about their previous contacts.

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157957825997050

 

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

I have an idea why...they didn’t report them...it’s a case of occums razor...either they under reported them or Thailand alone in the world has some special resistance to Covid. The simple explanation seems more plausible compared to some miracle immunity not shred by even their close genetic cousins in the region.

 

There is one explanation which provides Thais with a certain degree of what I'm going to call 'prior immunity'

[onthedarkside]

A post commenting on a fellow forum member and on moderation has been removed. Continue in the same direction, and you'll face a posting suspension.

 

[edwardandtubs]

2 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

There is one explanation which provides Thais with a certain degree of what I'm going to call 'prior immunity'

Do tell.

[Bkk Brian]

Here's a scientific paper:

Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-020-00718-y

 

As you can see, the term exponential is a general term to estimate the increase and the graph could also be viewed in linear increase if lines were drawn. There can be a large variation on daily numbers including decreasing numbers but it can still be exponential.

 

Blue dots are daily numbers

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Harry Black]

4 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

The number of cases they report will be directly related with the number of people they test. There is factual evidence (discussed ad infinitum already) that they test at very low rates in comparison to other countries. There has also been much commentary in the local media about problems with testing (either the cost, lack of tests, reluctance to test by hospitals).

 

So although the figure of 1,500 being the ceiling is wrong the evidence thus far suggests reported numbers will plateau...unless they significantly IO there game.

 

The other scenario is if test numbers stay the same but infection rates are soaring which will also show a higher number of daily cases.

And the number of deaths will remain the same?

[jojothai]

5 minutes ago, jojothai said:

Its not yet gone exponential on total cases., but could do so in the near future. see below chart.
On this you can only really consider from 15th December.
Therefore it is absolutely imperative to look at the trend in new cases and not total cases so we can judge if it is going to become exponential , the new cases currently do not support the case as an exponential growth.

 

You are correct that the total cases matter but will see why the new cases are so important if we extrapolate..
If they continue on the current linear growth then a gradient of 5795 new cases from 11th to 15th april  is equivalent to about 1500 a day  or 45,000 a month. If we add that to totals then there is an exponential growth on the longer term chart.
however in the short term it is would be linear.
 

To explain it a different way the current linear trend from 18 december to 6 april was 25274 over 109 days. = 232 per day.
The new case trend is far larger at say 1500 a day so the long term totals chart will increase in gradient and will still be going exponential in the next week.
The current trend since 01 April shows a slow down from an exponential gradient to linear only in the last 4 day which is a good sign in the short term, but on the longer term chart will not show yet. To say the growth is exponential only shows up to 15th April.  We could still get a hike in numbers and it will resume an exponential trend but it would have to be a large jump. Lets hope it does not. 

[saintbangkok]

I has no idea a virus could be so clever. I thought they just infected at whim, no matter who you are and where you are. But here we have a virus so mutated and seemingly with a form of AI, that it knows when you are in a bar drinking and when you are on the beach drinking. 

 

I am even more shocked that in being this clever, the virus is now more clever than many humans who show a total inability for critical thinking. 

Edited April 18, 2021 by saintbangkok
misspelling

[polpott]

3 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

 

Move location.

 

 

 

You will be less stressed.

 

 

 

 

I am. Back to the UK on Friday. Will return when I am fully vaccinated and cases in Thailand start to fall.

 

2.2k new cases in UK yesterday and falling. Thailand 1767 new cases and rising.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

A roster of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration field hospital facilities:

 

"The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is establishing field hospitals to meet the rising number of COVID-19 cases. They are located at:

 

--Bang Khun Thian Geriatric Hospital, with a capacity of 500 beds;

 

--Ratchapipat Hospital in Taweewattana district, with a capacity of 200 beds;

 

--Bangkok Arena Sports Complex in Nong Chok, with a capacity of 350 beds;

 

--and the 84th Anniversary Stadium in Bang Bon district, with a capacity of 200 beds.

 

Currently, the BMA has plans to add 500 more beds to Bang Khun Thian Geriatric Hospital [due to open April 19].

 

Those who test positive for COVID-19 but have yet to find a hospital can call hotlines 1668, 1339, or 1669 for assistance."

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/posts/4182132748476774

 

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[jojothai]

Thats a particular debate point. Should we start from mid december or beginning of April.
It depends which way we want to look at it.
Just hope the numbers do not explode over 2000 a day. That would be the resumption of exponential growth in the short term and the last few days  just an anomaly.

 

Note: I was replying to Rabas from about 30 minutes ago.
I dont know why the quote was not included. 

 

Rabas posted

"You are not fitting the correct data.

 

To model an infectious disease , you should fit the UK strain that broke out starting about April 1. Try and start with whatever day had 26 cases, from there it increases."

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by jojothai

[Antonymous]

43 minutes ago, rabas said:

49 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

Excellent post, thank you.

 

However I can see from comments in this and all the other threads that you are whistling in the wind as far as convincing ThaiVisa members that it would be sensible to optimize their immune system and improve their health in the face of Covid. The reaction you see is the same as holding a crucifix in front of a vampire.

 

Expand  

 

Again, a bit useless on the 18th day of a pandemic outbreak.

 

I hope that I am allowed to reply directly to you?

 

This is not the 18th day of the pandemic. My understanding is that this pandemic was declared over a year ago. Ergo people like myself have had ample opportunity to work on improving both our immune system and our overall health so that we have a better chance of pulling through should we become infected with Covid.

[jojothai]

47 minutes ago, rabas said:

You cannot fit the current 18 day old outbreak with data back to March 2020!

 

In fact, you must fit to the UK varient from Cambodia.

 

That's what's growing exponentially, as infectious diseases do.

 

 

Do you therefore agree that's why we need to monitor the short term trend from the recent outbreak.
Going back to mid December 2020 may not be the appropriate way to look at this

[ChiangMaiCal]

If you want to really scare yourself about what might be around the corner, check out this article from the Daily Telegraph UK

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/pandoras-box-disaster-open-doctors-reveal-horror-indias-double/

Edited April 18, 2021 by ChiangMaiCal
weblink corrected

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, BookShe said:

Why does it kill a relatively healthy young person in just 2 days, and on the other hand, relatively sick and unhealthy people don't even recognize they caught the virus. 

I would say it's because virtually every disease does this. Every individual is unique and everyone's response to a given pathogen will be different.

 

It doesn't matter which disease or condition you look at, despite there being a statistical likelihood of certain cohorts of people being more susceptible, there will still always be some statistically rare outliers that do not conform to the overall trend.

[Old Croc]

A niece of the wife was to be married on the 18th (today). Friends and relatives were coming from all over, particularly Bangkok, to celebrate along with Songkran. They had to cancel the wedding, no one travelled. Not all are idiotic.

 

Unfortunately, some are. Just heard that the local hospital in Dan Sai (Loei) has 3 new infected patients.  Not in the covid lists yet.

[jojothai]

42 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

You are not fitting the correct data.

 

To model an infectious disease , you should fit the UK strain that broke out starting about April 1. Try and start with whatever day had 26 cases, from there it increases.

 

I agree with you and that why I consider the short term trend most important ., from april 1st. Looking at the long term new cases, this is clearly a new outbreak and not the one from december. Chart below.
 

[Bradmeister]

Foreigner again?  What foreigner? At what check point!? 

 

Maybe an ex Somalian pirate, that survived floating across the Indian Ocean on flotsam  and landed at Ranong Immigration ?

 

If you're going to report news, stop saying Foreigner and provide accurate reporting.

 

Perhaps a Mongolian who's claiming asylum and made it to 3 pagodas land crossing check? 

 

Or is it something more deceptive and it was a Lao, Malay, Cambodian or a Burmese worker coming in for employment opportunities.

 

Report the news not more racist generalizations. 

[paulikens]

wonder how much work gets done by thais when working from home???

[ThailandRyan]

Maybe I can find an IO at home to do my 90 day tomorrow instead of hitting MTT 

[Excel]

5 minutes ago, paulikens said:

wonder how much work gets done by thais when working from home???

Quite a lot more I would imagine because they have to pay for their own internet to use their smartphones ????????

[ExpatOilWorker]

42 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

A roster of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration field hospital facilities:

 

"The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is establishing field hospitals to meet the rising number of COVID-19 cases. They are located at:

 

--Bang Khun Thian Geriatric Hospital, with a capacity of 500 beds;

 

--Ratchapipat Hospital in Taweewattana district, with a capacity of 200 beds;

 

--Bangkok Arena Sports Complex in Nong Chok, with a capacity of 350 beds;

 

--and the 84th Anniversary Stadium in Bang Bon district, with a capacity of 200 beds.

 

Currently, the BMA has plans to add 500 more beds to Bang Khun Thian Geriatric Hospital.

 

Those who test positive for COVID-19 but have yet to find a hospital can call hotlines 1668, 1339, or 1669 for assistance."

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/posts/4182132748476774

 

 

Wow, they are getting ready for a lot of warm bodies.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Wow, they are getting ready for a lot of warm bodies.

I think for once they actually are concerned that they may run short and that this is a direct result of their ingenious plan to allow mass travel.  I hope that they have enough beds and space for thousands, and that is just here in BKK.  Seeing posts and reports of people being unable to find a hospital to be admitted to.  I could have sworn that Anutin and the PM said they could handle whatever may come and it was no problem, all under control and this would go away in 2 weeks.

[EricTh]

There aren't enough beds now. Soon two people will have to share the same bed like in India.

 

Thailand did a great job in the first two waves but failed miserably in the third wave.

[Yorkshire Tea]

3 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Exactly.....as long as the gradient increases it is exponential......

 

Exponential growth refers to a manner in which a quantity increases when its rate of growth is proportional to itself. For example, a quantity that keeps tripling is an example of a quantity that exhibits exponential growth; since the value is constantly tripling with respect to itself, the rate of increase is also constantly increasing.

 

Whenever something is increasing or growing rapidly as a result of a constant rate of growth applied to it, that thing is experiencing exponential growth. The figure above is an example of exponential growth. In fact, it is the graph of the exponential function y = 2 x The general form of an exponential function is y = ab x.

 

All this discussion of exponential growth is going off at a tangent from the original topic...  or am I confusing my graphs ????

[Petey11]

1 hour ago, edwardandtubs said:

You're looking at it the wrong way. You should be considering total cases, not new cases. The real question is, what is the doubling time for total cases in this third wave? If it's every 3-4 days then Thailand is in a similar situation to Western countries during their first waves.

Exactly my thoughts previously, it's the double time of cases that shows the speed the infection is spreading hence leading into the R1 amongst other factors. Ultimately it doesn't matter if it's doubling every 2 days or 4 or 6, the infection is still spreading, not reducing. Only when the cases  flat line or drop can you say you have the latest wave under control.