Thailand reports new daily record of 21 deaths, 1,891 new cases, in third virus wave

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

No just the number of those that died at home and the number in the hospital, not the uncounted.  Stop trying to twist the words used and read my whole post for the context.  Trying to lump my post into your:

 

 Portion of your post, but nice try.

"Doomsayers" was in member Dandermilk's post, to which I replied...not in my reply. You have misquoted me in violation of Forum rules.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The severe COVID outbreak in India is beginning to bubble in Thailand, with the Bangkok Post today reporting that Thai health officials are worried and testing to determine whether returning Thais infected with COVID may be carrying the virulent Indian strain of the disease.

 

A government spokesman also said a repatriation flight is going to be returning from India to Thailand four Thai nationals -- three Thai Embassy officials and one person who worked with them -- who have contracted the virus and will receive medical treatment here upon their return.

 

Meanwhile, the U.S. has announced a travel ban on non U.S. citizens coming to the U.S. from India as well.

 

Biden bans most travel to U.S. from India to limit COVID-19 spread

 

"U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday imposed new travel restrictions on India in light of the COVID-19 epidemic, barring most non-U.S. citizens from entering the United States.

 

The new restrictions, which take effect on Tuesday, May 4 at 12:01 am ET (0401 GMT), are on the advice of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and were imposed because "the magnitude and scope of the COVID-19 pandemic" in India was "surging," the White House said.

...

The proclamation said India "accounts for over one-third of new global cases" and added that "proactive measures are required to protect the nation's public health from travelers entering the United States" from India."

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-biden-set-ban-most-travel-us-india-limit-covid-19-spread-2021-04-30/

 

From the Thai Ministry of Public Health:

 

 

India posts new record daily rise in COVID-19 cases

 

India posted a record daily rise of 401,993 new coronavirus cases on Saturday as the country opened up its mega vaccination drive to all adults, although several states warned of acute vaccine shortages.

 

India, the world’s biggest producer of COVID-19 vaccines, has a limited number of shots available domestically, worsening a grim second wave of infections that has left hospitals and morgues overflowing while families scramble for increasingly scarce medicines and oxygen.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/india-posts-new-record-daily-rise-in-covid-19-cases/

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

"Doomsayers" was in member Dandermilk's post, to which I replied...not in my reply. You have misquoted me in violation of Forum rules.

Fixed, sorry about that, I thought I had quoted his, and never checked.  You have my apologies Spotter.

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Just sayin' that, as you say, depending on the parameters chosen, a graph can be used to "show" almost anything.

It can yes but a 7 day moving average is a pretty standard metric, you may not like its look but it is what it is and cannot be disputed

[DavisH]

42 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Do you believe Thailand has control of this virus, and thus has a secret formula in dealing with Covid where other countries have failed.  If that was the case why are the other countries not flocking here to get the secrets to the Thai magical success in defeating Covid.  Thailand could sell the other countries billions of dollars in amulets, and provide monks to give them Thai Sak Yant tattoos.

 

This post is dripping with sarcasm and is a sad commentary that underscores the truth of the matters at hand which folks believe are soon to be washed away after the spirit of Songkran has cleansed them all.

Which other countries have forced isolation for all positive cases> There is your answer. This will come under control, unlike the UK, INdia and European countries. 

 

[Danderman123]

7 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Which other countries have forced isolation for all positive cases> There is your answer. This will come under control, unlike the UK, INdia and European countries. 

 

This is the same forced isolation which is so heavily criticized on this forum, especially by those who waste our time complaining about the government.

[Pravda]

Canada (where I'm from) is reporting an increase in young people without symptoms dying of covid. On Thai news today there are similar reports. 

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

.... and you know this .... how?

The clue is in the title, "a record daily high".

 

Please try to keep up.

[AlfHuy]

17 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The severe COVID outbreak in India is beginning to bubble in Thailand, with the Bangkok Post today reporting that Thai health officials are worried and testing to determine whether returning Thais infected with COVID may be carrying the virulent Indian strain of the disease.

 

Meanwhile, the U.S. has announced a travel ban on non U.S. citizens coming to the U.S. from India as well.

 

Biden bans most travel to U.S. from India to limit COVID-19 spread

 

"U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday imposed new travel restrictions on India in light of the COVID-19 epidemic, barring most non-U.S. citizens from entering the United States.

 

The new restrictions, which take effect on Tuesday, May 4 at 12:01 am ET (0401 GMT), are on the advice of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and were imposed because "the magnitude and scope of the COVID-19 pandemic" in India was "surging," the White House said.

...

The proclamation said India "accounts for over one-third of new global cases" and added that "proactive measures are required to protect the nation's public health from travelers entering the United States" from India."

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-biden-set-ban-most-travel-us-india-limit-covid-19-spread-2021-04-30/

 

 

It's spreading.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-indian-covid-variant-belgium-health.html

[holy cow cm]

22 deaths today and a burial of a well known loved icon Thai comedian. And it is apparent there is no guilty conscience with this Junta and for that matter all Juntas as they always have one thing in mind, and it revolves around money and what they support. Collateral damage. It is seriously time for all these guys to run for exile.

Edited May 1, 2021 by holy cow cm

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The first chart below shows Thailand's cumulative COVID case number totals since the beginning of the pandemic. The second chart below shows the nation's case totals since the start of its "third wave" and most serious outbreak at the start of April.

 

The light blue shaded box below shows 28,745 COVID positive patients in some kind of government mandated hospital facility, including 829 listed in critical condition, and 270 of those requiring ventilators in order to breathe. The latter number was a 20 patient increase from the prior day.

 

 

 

 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

The clue is in the title, "a record daily high".

 

Please try to keep up.

For those actually paying attention to the pandemic, deaths lag new infections by up to 3 weeks. So, the epidemic could be fading away while deaths increase.

 

For a concrete example, the state of California currently has the lowest infection rate in the USA, but the highest death rate.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Thailand reported Saturday three provinces with more than 100 new COVID cases, led by Bangkok, Samut Prakan and Chonburi on the chart below, which shows the latest day COVID case reports along with cumulative totals for April:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Chivas]

Until Thailand follows what has happened within the UK and instigates both harsh lockdowns and a mass vaccination programme then we'll be reading these statistics for at least a year.....

 

This is only the start within Thailand

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Which other countries have forced isolation for all positive cases> There is your answer. This will come under control, unlike the UK, INdia and European countries. 

 

If they had not allowed travel at Songkran then those forced isolation's and record deaths would not have happened to the extent they are now. Yes we criticized the Thai government then and we are doing so now because of their actions. We also hope they will get this under control but it was so unnecessary and avoidable

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thailand reported Saturday three provinces with more than 100 new COVID cases, led by Bangkok, Samut Prakan and Chonburi on the chart below, which shows the latest day COVID case reports along with cumulative totals for April:

 

 

 

 

 

I believe Bangkok's increase is being led by the newest cluster to be found in Klong Toei.

[FarFlungFalang]

58 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

To them there is still exponential spread (even though new infections are down a third since the "Third Wave" high)...the government figures are all lies...and the ministers are not to be trusted.

Thailand ranks 104th for transparency and corruption.Believe these untrustworthy numbers at your peril.They have convicted heroin smugglers for ministers and you say trust these people?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

A government spokesman reported Saturday that 15 Thai provinces -- not including Bangkok -- are now asking residents to stay home during the night/overnight hours in an attempt to limit the spread of the coronavirus:

 

[edwardandtubs]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

They could increase that percent by allowing vaccinated foreigners to enter the country more easily.

It's actually a very good point. Now that there are more new cases in Thailand than say the United Kingdom, and the predominant strain is the same, there's no reason at all for having a 14-day quarantine for vaccinated British visitors.  A lot of tourist destinations like Turkey are realising this but Thailand still has this knee-jerk anti-foreigner response to anything covid related.

Edited May 1, 2021 by edwardandtubs

[Pattaya Spotter]

40 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

It can yes but a 7 day moving average is a pretty standard metric, you may not like its look but it is what it is and cannot be disputed

No I didn't dispute the data...just saying that how data is displayed in a graph can be misleading (not saying that was your intent). Any statistician knows this.

[Pattaya Spotter]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Thailand ranks 104th for transparency and corruption.Believe these untrustworthy numbers at your peril.They have convicted heroin smugglers for ministers and you say trust these people?

I'm saying they're the only figures we have to work with...and most of the rest of the world seems to trust them. If some choose to disbelieve them that's their prerogative but then anything they posit is purely in the realm of speculation. 

Edited May 1, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[edwardandtubs]

25 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

If they had not allowed travel at Songkran then those forced isolation's and record deaths would not have happened to the extent they are now. Yes we criticized the Thai government then and we are doing so now because of their actions. We also hope they will get this under control but it was so unnecessary and avoidable

Most cases are in Bangkok so the travel restrictions you're talking about wouldn't have made any difference to that. And most of the other cases are in places that had covid clusters before Songkran so I don't think your told you so attitude holds any water.

Edited May 1, 2021 by edwardandtubs

[Pattaya Spotter]

35 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

The clue is in the title, "a record daily high".

 

Please try to keep up.

As there was record daily infections a week or so ago, this is to be expected. Nothing really newsworthy to anyone following the news. About 1% of the daily infected people will die.

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

No I didn't dispute the data...just saying that how data is displayed in a graph can be misleading (not saying that was your intent). Any statistician knows this.

Sure I understand that but a 7 day moving average does not come under that category of being possibly misleading because its doing exactly what its intended to do, give a 7 day rolling pattern.

 

Don't worry, you'll love it next week if it goes down then you'll be praising it as the most accurate way to monitor the rapid decline! 

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Sure I understand that but a 7 day moving average does not come under that category of being possibly misleading because its doing exactly what its intended to do, give a 7 day rolling pattern.

 

Don't worry, you'll love it next week if it goes down then you'll be praising it as the most accurate way to monitor the rapid decline! 

 

A seven day moving average graph ???? should cover 7-14 days or so...not four months is all I'm saying. Information in visual form is easy to manipulate. Data is what it is...I've never been one to question the numbers...just not been one in full panic mode.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

34 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I believe Bangkok's increase is being led by the newest cluster to be found in Klong Toei.

 

This is what Bangkok's daily new COVID case numbers look like for the period April 25 to May 1:

 

[realfunster]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Do you believe Thailand has control of this virus

 

Control is a binary option, you either do or don't have control. That is not the way to look at COVID which has a broad range of outcomes. Based on the prior 15 months, on any objective assessment Thailand has got off very lightly compared to say UK, Europe, US, Brazil, South Africa etc. We have been able to live a largely normal life in Thailand during this time, in stark comparison to many around the world.  

 

As for the current outbreak, well, we will see won't we?

 

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

If that was the case why are the other countries not flocking here to get the secrets to the Thai magical success in defeating Covid.

 

Compared to average global outcomes, the same could be said for Australia, NZ, China, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore etc.

 

This is not a dress-rehearsal and it will probably take years to fully understand the virus and why some countries have fared better or worse. Accordingly, we need to adjust to living with uncertainty. It's not comfortable but we have no choice for a while.

 

One apparent trend is that for whatever reason, in the 15 months of the pandemic to date, South East & East Asia has not taken anywhere near the same level of COVID beating as the RoW. Further, all of the countries listed above have (to my knowledge) also put in place strict border controls at an early stage. Maybe that was a factor, maybe it wasn't. We won't know for some time. 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2021 by realfunster
Typo

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I'm saying they're the only figures we have to work with...and most of the rest of the world seems to trust them. If some choose to disbelieve them that's their prerogative but then anything they posit is purely in the realm of speculation. 

If the rest of the world trusted them they would be here seeing how Thailand achieves it's beautiful numbers.All countries test to capacity,that capacity can be at any level for any reason each country wishes it to be some choose a high capacity some choose a low capacity Thailand has chosen a low capacity for testing for reasons they have expained.There is no cover up or any need to falsify figures to achieve Thailands numbers.It's said that low testing capacity limits ability to see what is actually happening.The numbers don't show exponential growth but we already know that the numbers don't reflect the reality of the current situation so there could well be exponential growth and we could be at the bottom of a very steep hill or we might be on a plateau good lick trying to pick a winner in this race.

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

Most cases are in Bangkok so the travel restrictions you're talking about wouldn't have made any difference to that. And most of the other cases are in places that had covid clusters before Songkran so I don't think your told you so attitude holds any water.

Most cases are in Bangkok of course, thats where this all started, but now every single province in Thailand has cases, many well over 100 each and counting

 

9 deaths in provinces today, outside of Bangkok

 

To suggest this wasn't down to Songkran travel is delusional at best. Even Prayut admitted the spread is caused from this.

 

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

18 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

A lot of tourist destinations like Turkey are realising this but Thailand still has this knee-jerk anti-foreigner response to anything covid related.

I'd characterize it as "pro-Thai." It's not always about foreigners, as much as many like to think.