Thailand reports new daily record of 21 deaths, 1,891 new cases, in third virus wave

[edwardandtubs]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

How does that bear any sound resemblance to Covid on an OP about Covid.  It has no bearing at all.  Overdoses are self inflicted, vehicle accidents have a direct correlation to the driver or drivers actions, but Covid is indiscriminate and travels at will infecting whomever it wants to and spreads faster than a drug overdose and speeding car or motorbike.  Try again, no comparison when it comes to what the world facing as an unprecedented Novel virus.

Who's the heartless one now? The 99+% of deaths in Thailand that aren't caused by Covid-19 are all the fault of the dead person, following your logic.

[sambum]

The PM and his deputy have both said the situation is "under control."

 

Some important person with medical knowledge said a few days ago, that it has reached its peak, has levelled off, and in a couple of weeks the number of infections will "reduce significantly." (I heard it from a friend who read it somewhere!)

 

Porkies, anyone?

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

19 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

An even more recent example is the Czar saying the latest wave is the peoples fault for not doing enough to mitigate the spread and he said this days after being fined for failing to mitigate the spread of the virus.

I noticed on one of your testing graphs you posted that the record number of infections of 2800 the number of tests said about 14,000 which gives an infection rate of 20%! I tried the link you provided but could not for the life of me find those testing graphs.It would be great if you could give some navigational tips to find those graphs....Pleeeaase?I've been on holidays which is why I didn't raise the issue earlier.  

The graphs I knock up myself from a free online graph maker https://charts.livegap.com/

 

The data is from the official tests lab tests per person published daily although always a day behind, here https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

Here's the latest up till the 29th April

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

Who's the heartless one now? The 99+% of deaths in Thailand that aren't caused by Covid-19 are all the fault of the dead person, following your logic.

Heartless, really. Reality is what it is.  Truthfulness is what it is, and nowhere in my post did I say it was not sad.  This is an OP on Covid, and the reality is that it is spreading and people are dying which is extremely sad and disheartening when for over a year this Government sat back on their rear ends and rested on the laurels thrown to them instead of preparing for the unseen, and then caused this blow-up of cases throughout all of Thailand.  Had they been testing widespread then maybe they would have had a better idea of what was to come, but they tested in small numbers to satisfy their egos and their status as a Covid free or semi free Country.  So tell me again who is heartless, yes the Government.

[edwardandtubs]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Heartless, really. Reality is what it is.  Truthfulness is what it is, and nowhere in my post did I say it was not sad.  This is an OP on Covid, and the reality is that it is spreading and people are dying which is extremely sad and disheartening when for over a year this Government sat back on their rear ends and rested on the laurels thrown to them instead of preparing for the unseen, and then caused this blow-up of cases throughout all of Thailand.  Had they been testing widespread then maybe they would have had a better idea of what was to come, but they tested in small numbers to satisfy their egos and their status as a Covid free or semi free Country.  So tell me again who is heartless, yes the Government.

The government have to consider both the positive and negative consequences of the lockdown you're screaming for. You seem to be only considering the positives and completely ignoring the negatives, even though those negatives would lead to increased poverty and therefore death.

[RJRS1301]

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

How does that bear any sound resemblance to Covid on an OP about Covid.  It has no bearing at all.  Overdoses are self inflicted, vehicle accidents have a direct correlation to the driver or drivers actions, but Covid is indiscriminate and travels at will infecting whomever it wants to and spreads faster than a drug overdose and speeding car or motorbike.  Try again, no comparison when it comes to what the world facing as an unprecedented Novel virus.

The other thing that is not being reported is the co-morbidities (if any) age, many factors above the angst of 21 deaths, and increased infections.

I would be more concerned also about the longer term effects fromCovid19, renal disease, long term fatigue, lung damage, cardiac, instead of raw numbers, they mean almost nothing, except to cause outrage and fear, that reaction does not contribute to halting disease transmission.

 

[Danderman123]

7 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

The government have to consider both the positive and negative consequences of the lockdown you're screaming for. You seem to be only considering the positives and completely ignoring the negatives, even though those negatives would lead to increased poverty and therefore death.

India had the same debate, to do a total lockdown, or let the virus spread freely.

[edwardandtubs]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

India had the same debate, to do a total lockdown, or let the virus spread freely.

It shouldn't be seen as a false dichotomy like that though. An absolute lockdown isn't the only alternative. Restrictions that fall short of a lockdown have worked well in many countries, including South Korea and Japan and Thailand in the previous waves. The WHO says lockdown should be a last resort.

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

The government have to consider both the positive and negative consequences of the lockdown you're screaming for. You seem to be only considering the positives and completely ignoring the negatives, even though those negatives would lead to increased poverty and therefore death.

Yes a middle ground is needed, but when the spread of the virus was accelerated by the Governments decision to allow travel for Songkran in the name of money and Sanuk, then there is where you and I will disagree.  Enjoying the ability to freely travel, and then obeying the rules is not something this Government really understands when it comes to the virus as they never believed the virus variant we are now experiencing could ever arrive because of their supposedly tight quarantine regulations.

[Andycoops]

The covid Czar seems to be wobbling abit ..

I thought by now the country would have been virus free.

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, edwardandtubs said:

It shouldn't be seen as a false dichotomy like that though. An absolute lockdown isn't the only alternative. Restrictions that fall short of a lockdown have worked well in many countries, including South Korea and Japan and Thailand in the previous waves. The WHO says lockdown should be a last resort.

What would you have done differently in India than what was done? Or Brazil?

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

The other thing that is not being reported is the co-morbidities (if any) age, many factors above the angst of 21 deaths, and increased infections.

I would be more concerned also about the longer term effects fromCovid19, renal disease, long term fatigue, lung damage, cardiac, instead of raw numbers, they mean almost nothing, except to cause outrage and fear, that reaction does not contribute to halting disease transmission.

 

Long term Covid is never even discussed by this Government, and very few of us discuss it on this forum.  It is an even bigger issue then the deaths that have occurred in the rest of the countries as well as here.  My standpoint is not on just the deaths themselves, but the issue as to what caused this wave, and why this government was not truly prepared.  Additionally, why they did not rollout the vaccination programs sooner except in order to make and save money, and then the constant flip flopping of yes the private sector can buy and source their own vaccines to no they can not.  Deaths are occurring, and the totality of them should also be known and not shadowed over.

[edwardandtubs]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

What would you have done differently in India than what was done? Or Brazil?

It seems they were having political rallies and mass gatherings at religious festivals just a few weeks ago in India. With hindsight that should never have been allowed.

Edited May 1, 2021 by edwardandtubs

[candide]

18 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

It shouldn't be seen as a false dichotomy like that though. An absolute lockdown isn't the only alternative. Restrictions that fall short of a lockdown have worked well in many countries, including South Korea and Japan and Thailand in the previous waves. The WHO says lockdown should be a last resort.

Right. The Korean way (extensive testing, tracing, and targeted isolation) is likely the best alternative. Any hope that it could be applied in India or Thailand?

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

It shouldn't be seen as a false dichotomy like that though. An absolute lockdown isn't the only alternative. Restrictions that fall short of a lockdown have worked well in many countries, including South Korea and Japan and Thailand in the previous waves. The WHO says lockdown should be a last resort.

Short sharp lockdowns do work though, thats all that would have been needed to quell the spread here. Then if necessary targeted smaller lockdowns in any outbreak areas. This would have made the economic impact far less in the longterm.

 

South Korea is a good example of a country that avoided lockdowns but also a good example of a country that did mass testing. It is still getting upwards of 700 cases daily however.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[HappyinNE]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Do you believe Thailand has control of this virus, and thus has a secret formula in dealing with Covid where other countries have failed.  If that was the case why are the other countries not flocking here to get the secrets to the Thai magical success in defeating Covid.  Thailand could sell the other countries billions of dollars in amulets, and provide monks to give them Thai Sak Yant tattoos.

 

This post is dripping with sarcasm and is a sad commentary that underscores the truth of the matters at hand which folks believe are soon to be washed away after the spirit of Songkran has cleansed them all.

Here is your Thai magical success:  COVID-19 and Flu Pandemics Follow a Pattern: A Possible Cross-immunity in the Pandemic Origin and Graver Disease in Farther Regions (nih.gov)

[GrandPapillon]

these numbers are still very low, in comparable size countries, it's 300 dead per day and 30,000 new cases a day

 

that is if you have enough test and actually count only those dying in hospitals after being identified with COVID

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, HappyinNE said:

Here is your Thai magical success:  COVID-19 and Flu Pandemics Follow a Pattern: A Possible Cross-immunity in the Pandemic Origin and Graver Disease in Farther Regions (nih.gov)

Very interesting article. The section from the article I pasted makes one truly wonder when they talk about age and deaths with comorbidities especially in Japan:

 

"The increased COVID-19/flu aggressiveness in regions far from the pandemic origin cannot be fully explained by obesity, comorbidities, and age, the certain factors contributed to COVID-19/flu aggressiveness in the same geographic region (⁴). The highest mortality for COVID-19 is among elderly population (^1,5). However, Japan has the oldest population of the world, but it still has a very low rate/mortality of COVID-19 (¹). A compelling explanation for the pattern might be a partial preexisting cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2/influenza viruses in areas close to the origin of the pandemics (^6,7)."

 

Then this section is also interesting when it comes to a discussion of T cells.

 

"So far, no genetic factors explaining the lower COVID-19 rate/mortality in East Asia areas have been identified. It is reasonable to speculate that a lower rate/mortality of COVID-19 in East Asia is likely due to the preexisting cross-immunity (either reactive antibodies or T-cells) to some close viruses being more prevalent in those regions. A large-scale, multi-center analysis of preexisting cross-immunity across the world will clarify this hypothesis. However, we cannot wait years for these data to be completed since another pandemic might be originating somewhere else. Indeed, the failure of the WHO to send warning early in the COVID-19 pandemic might be owing to a lower rate and mortality of COVID-19 in East Asia."

Edited May 1, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, internationalism said:

so the 3rd wave did not culminate yesterday.

statistics are jumping up and down, and usually on weekends are lower - hospitals need to give time off to their overstretched personel. That's why weekly average was introduced many months ago in most of countries, instead of daily data. 

This wave is likely to roll at similar levels and even rise, until a large vax program kicks in. Those 3mln of sinovac ordered by prayuth migh do the job, just to keep under control, but not to extinguish 

Statistics always fluctuate... only the perception of people deem those to be a trend or not.

[FarFlungFalang]

53 minutes ago, Andycoops said:

The covid Czar seems to be wobbling abit ..

I thought by now the country would have been virus free.

His orders are usually to be completed in 7 days so maybe he needs a couple of more days before the wheels fall off officially that would surely put a stop to the wobbles.

[Mr Meeseeks]

3 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I'd characterize it as "pro-Thai." It's not always about foreigners, as much as many like to think.

Chonburi has just announced that any expats travelling to other provinces need to get COVID-19 tested.

 

Doesn't apply to Thais as far as I am aware. 

[anchadian]

Richard Barrow 

 

@RichardBarrow

·

17m

 

UPDATE: Some good news. A number of foreigners have told me that they have been successful today in booking an appointment to get the Sinovac vaccine in June. You need to use the Thai ID card for foreigners (it’s pink). First round is for people 60+ or with underlying diseases.

 

[tigerman]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

It’s going to take a while to vaccinate 70% of bangkok at this rate. And they haven’t even finished 70% of Phuket yet!

Who's doing the counting

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Chonburi has just announced that any expats travelling to other provinces need to get COVID-19 tested.

 

Doesn't apply to Thais as far as I am aware. 

So ....... to go from Pattaya to BKK airport, I need a Covid test? Who is going to check me?

[Cake Monster]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

That is part and parcel to the question as well, Thanks.

It was interesting what Teewasilp of the CCSA said on Friday.

He quoted some numbers of people who were tested and the positivity rates found from those tests.

Needless to say that in Bangkok from April 5 to April 27 some 28,022 people were tested and 4.54 % were positive.

On Thursday a mass testing of 7,330 people found 5.17 % positive , and also on Thursday a mass testing in the Klong Toey Slums found 9.57 % positive.

Source BKK paper that cannot be named.

As can be seen by the numbers of people actually tested, they appear to be fairly small, but the positivity rate seems to be edging upward.

I personally think this goes a long way towards answering a question many have been asking 

" how many are actually being tested "

[Mr Meeseeks]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

So ....... to go from Pattaya to BKK airport, I need a Covid test? Who is going to check me?

Dunno but here is the infographic. 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

The graphs I knock up myself from a free online graph maker https://charts.livegap.com/

 

The data is from the official tests lab tests per person published daily although always a day behind, here https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

Here's the latest up till the 29th April

So a average positive rate of 12.2% with 20% on the 24th April which is pretty high.

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

It was interesting what Teewasilp of the CCSA said on Friday.

He quoted some numbers of people who were tested and the positivity rates found from those tests.

Needless to say that in Bangkok from April 5 to April 27 some 28,022 people were tested and 4.54 % were positive.

On Thursday a mass testing of 7,330 people found 5.17 % positive , and also on Thursday a mass testing in the Klong Toey Slums found 9.57 % positive.

Source BKK paper that cannot be named.

As can be seen by the numbers of people actually tested, they appear to be fairly small, but the positivity rate seems to be edging upward.

I personally think this goes a long way towards answering a question many have been asking 

" how many are actually being tested "

The problem is that the numbers quoted are just for Bangkok, and don’t represent all tests, probably just their random sampling.

 

The numbers for Klang Toey are just that, a sampling of one specific area, and those numbers cannot be extrapolated nationwide.

 

The most important number is the positivity rate for the 28,000 tests, less than 4%. This means there are pockets of infection, but they are not widespread, in Bangkok. Of course, the numbers could be wrong.....

[Cake Monster]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The problem is that the numbers quoted are just for Bangkok, and don’t represent all tests, probably just their random sampling.

 

The numbers for Klang Toey are just that, a sampling of one specific area, and those numbers cannot be extrapolated nationwide.

 

The most important number is the positivity rate for the 28,000 tests, less than 4%. This means there are pockets of infection, but they are not widespread, in Bangkok. Of course, the numbers could be wrong.....

The numbers have to assumed correct, as they came directly from the Horses Mouth ( CCSA )

[MrJ2U]

6 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

.... and you know this .... how?

When you have mass movement of infected people like Sonkran there will mass transmission.  It's what's happening now and even worse in India.