Over to you crypto fanboys

[Peterw42]

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Tulip bulbs.

You are wrong, Tulip bulbs are a tangible asset and actually had an inherent value.

[GrandPapillon]

so what happened? the whole thing crashed?

 

don't worry, the crypto minions will work twice as hard to find new "victims" to pump, just a temporary correction ????

 

[how241]

29 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Tulip bulbs.

I read a research paper that studied that complete 'tulip bulb bubble' story  and they found that they could NOT find anyone that actually lost any money.  The tulip market was Very small and only traded among 5-6 people and when the market price collapsed  those people just cancelled their pending trades. The media loves to talk about this supposedly great bubble and it's collapse BUT  there is no record of anyone actually losing money with the supposed collapse of the largest bubble in history.  More fake news put out by the mainstream bankers that are worried that crypto will cut into their profits.  From Wikipedia  "   Although prices had risen, money had not changed hands between buyers and sellers. Thus profits were never realized for sellers; unless sellers had made other purchases on credit in expectation of the profits, the collapse in prices did not cause anyone to lose money."^[60]

[GrandPapillon]

if buying a Tulip for 400,000 EUR is not losing money, when you could buy it after for 20 EUR, I am not sure you understand the definition of losing money ????

 

no wonder you invest in cryptos and never "lose", with such wonderful denial

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by GrandPapillon

[how241]

4 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

just a temporary correction

You're probable right.  Usually the 'dips'  are a good chance to make money.  Some like to talk bad about crypto BUT most people that buy and hold for 1 year are way up in profit.  

[how241]

2 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

if buying a Tulip for 400,000 EUR is not losing money, when you could buy it after for 20 EUR, I am not sure you understand the definition of losing money ????

 

no wonder you invest in cryptos and never "lose", with such wonderful denial

 

Tulips, it's hard to get accurate info on something that happened 300 years ago.  Most crypto holders in the past 10 years are in profit.  Only if you selectively pick out a small time frame can you show people that are down.  

[GrandPapillon]

23 minutes ago, how241 said:

Tulips, it's hard to get accurate info on something that happened 300 years ago.  Most crypto holders in the past 10 years are in profit.  Only if you selectively pick out a small time frame can you show people that are down.  

Tulips were in late 18th century, and we have extensive info and records on what happened, you need to dig deeper than wiki to get the wisdom out of these events.

 

The problem with crypto owners is that:

 

1. Most don't actually track their actual gain/loss, so they have no idea exactly how much they have gained or lost. That could be an issue when taxes become effective

 

2. Most don't know how to calculate actual performance, they use "unrealized" gains as their main benchmark and forget all kind of costs, intermediate losses and time associated with trading.

 

3. Most are in denial, and prefer to look at the high and low difference as a measure of performance, that's actually a measure of risk, and they have everything upside down. No wonder they take all those crazy risks without knowing the consequences. They will find it the hard way eventually, like Madoff, when all accounts get called.

Edited January 23, 2022 by GrandPapillon

[how241]

5 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

Tulips were in late 18th century, and we have extensive info and records on what happened, you need to dig deeper than wiki to get the wisdom out of these events.

Tulip mania (Dutch: tulpenmanie) was a period during the Dutch Golden Age when contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels, with the major acceleration starting in 1634 and then dramatically collapsing in February 1637.

[GrandPapillon]

3 minutes ago, how241 said:

Tulip mania (Dutch: tulpenmanie) was a period during the Dutch Golden Age when contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels, with the major acceleration starting in 1634 and then dramatically collapsing in February 1637.

like I said, go dig deeper than wiki.

 

https://archive.tulipsociety.co.uk/wakefield-tulips-in-18th-century/

 

Tulips were central, and the speculation going for decades. And we are not talking 2000 BC here, so plenty of records and info during that period.

 

This is also studied in Economics and finance in business schools.

Edited January 23, 2022 by GrandPapillon

[how241]

6 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

The problem with crypto owners is that:

Your next 3 statements start with 'Most'.   Are  you referring to people that you know ?

"Most"  is way too generalized to even comment on.  Have a nice day.

[how241]

2 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

like I said, go dig deeper than wiki.

 

https://archive.tulipsociety.co.uk/wakefield-tulips-in-18th-century/

Does it really matter what might have happened 200-300 years ago ???   I get it,  you don't like crypto. Good luck wherever you place your investment bets. 

[GrandPapillon]

1 minute ago, how241 said:

Your next 3 statements start with 'Most'.   Are  you referring to people that you know ?

"Most"  is way too generalized to even comment on.  Have a nice day.

"most" as "main stream" or "average" or "amateur" owners, not "sophisticated" investors. Note that it would be the same even if they invested in MEME stocks like $GME, not only cryptos.

 

99% of individual of investors have no clue about finance and investing, and I speak from experience ????

[GrandPapillon]

3 minutes ago, how241 said:

Does it really matter what might have happened 200-300 years ago ???   I get it,  you don't like crypto. Good luck wherever you place your investment bets. 

I think it does matter, because if we don't look at history, we can't learn from our mistakes. What happened before, is happening again. It could be something else than crypto, it would be the same thing.

 

What happened 300 years ago tell us a lot about our behaviors, our bias, our cognitive disconnect and our excess. They tell us everything we need to know about us and our future. It's a crystal ball to our future.

 

Don't you want to know what the future will be for cryptos? ????

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by GrandPapillon

[how241]

2 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

99% of individual of investors have no clue about finance and investing, and I speak from experience

As long as they are getting "Lucky"  and making money does it really matter what they know or how sophisticated they are.  I am assuming that you are a sophisticated investor.  In my many years of investing,  I have always found that it is better, more profitable,  to be lucky than smart.  

[GrandPapillon]

1 minute ago, how241 said:

As long as they are getting "Lucky"  and making money does it really matter what they know or how sophisticated they are.  I am assuming that you are a sophisticated investor.  In my many years of investing,  I have always found that it is better, more profitable,  to be lucky than smart.  

you are right, luck does play a lot in successful investment. One way to mitigate this is to have "systematic" rules to beat the "odds" and the probability. The clueless investors don't even have that or understand that, so really they are gambling.

 

Gambling is fine, but it's regulated for a good reason. People will hurt themselves financially, because they are babbling idiots and need to supervised like children.

 

Cryptos is gambling, not investing. Luck but also "manipulation" is key for success. In this unregulated environment, the manipulation takes away the luck you could expect from gambling, and that's the main issue.

 

Cryptos is dangerous for people and society. If people want to gamble, just go to a casino, the "odds" are regulated. Or you could play card games, but that would require skills and "work" and since people are lazy and just want easy money, it's a no go, and they will stay in the miserable life they have and deserve for being lazy ????

 

[alextrat1966]

32 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

you are right, luck does play a lot in successful investment. One way to mitigate this is to have "systematic" rules to beat the "odds" and the probability. The clueless investors don't even have that or understand that, so really they are gambling.

BS, I am yet to see any strategy at all which is successful in beating the market over a long period of time. 

 

Trading, no matter cryptos, stocks, options, is gambling + a good dose of luck. And it tends to happen that the more you know the less you make trading. 

 

No matter what you trade, if you do trade at all, never risk more than you can afford losing. That IS financial advise.

[Peterw42]

3 hours ago, how241 said:

You're probable right.  Usually the 'dips'  are a good chance to make money.  Some like to talk bad about crypto BUT most people that buy and hold for 1 year are way up in profit.  

Its hardly a dip, its down 50% from November last year

[how241]

38 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Its hardly a dip, its down 50% from November last year

Yes,  you're right.  A bit of a 'crash' but bitcoin has a history of 'crashing'  and recovering. 

Maybe a good time to cost average for people that bought BTC in the mid 60K's.  I am Not giving anyone advise to follow.  I am just sharing my opinions. 

[how241]

3 hours ago, alextrat1966 said:

BS, I am yet to see any strategy at all which is successful in beating the market over a long period of time. 

 

Trading, no matter cryptos, stocks, options, is gambling + a good dose of luck. And it tends to happen that the more you know the less you make trading. 

 

No matter what you trade, if you do trade at all, never risk more than you can afford losing. That IS financial advise.

Good post.  I would agree with you.  Definitely better to be lucky than smart in investing/gambling.  People can act strange at times.  Some would never play a hand of blackjack for $25  but have no problem to let thousands sit in  various markets.  Most all markets are manipulated and insider trading/corruption is common place. 

[GrandPapillon]

4 hours ago, alextrat1966 said:

BS, I am yet to see any strategy at all which is successful in beating the market over a long period of time. 

 

it's not because you didn't see them that they don't exist, I have seen them and they work, even in the long run, some over 20 years. The good strategies are kept and reserved for the "elite" and UNW Individuals, not for the average investor.

Edited January 23, 2022 by GrandPapillon

[alextrat1966]

7 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

it's not because you didn't see them that they don't exist, I have seen them and they work, even in the long run, some over 20 years. The good strategies are kept and reserved for the "elite" and UNW Individuals, not for the average investor.

That would make for a nice barstool story in Pattaya, Mr.Elite ????

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, alextrat1966 said:

That would make for a nice barstool story in Pattaya, Mr.Elite ????

indeed it would, hence why you should never take advice online or from anonymous forums, including mine ????

 

[suzannegoh]

22 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Tulip bulbs.

I bought some of these last year.  Our garden looks great.

[suzannegoh]

sdlf;sadkf

Edited January 24, 2022 by suzannegoh
duplicate post

[how241]

On 1/23/2022 at 3:38 PM, userabcd said:

Pity those who bought in at 50 or 60000usd

Maybe they bought at 50K  and Sold at 60,000.  Nice 20% profit in a short time.  Maybe next they shorted at 60,000  and are making big profits now.  Maybe.  You never know, so no reason to assume the worst case outcome. 

[suzannegoh]

13 minutes ago, how241 said:

Maybe they bought at 50K  and Sold at 60,000.  Nice 20% profit in a short time.  Maybe next they shorted at 60,000  and are making big profits now.  Maybe.  You never know, so no reason to assume the worst case outcome. 

Yes, that's usually what happens.  But isn't the mantra HODL?

[Peterw42]

2 hours ago, how241 said:

Maybe they bought at 50K  and Sold at 60,000.  Nice 20% profit in a short time.  Maybe next they shorted at 60,000  and are making big profits now.  Maybe.  You never know, so no reason to assume the worst case outcome. 

How can you short bitcoin ? There is no CFD or futures market for bitcoin.

Short selling involves a contract for a future value, who is writing the contract

 

[how241]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

How can you short bitcoin ? There is no CFD or futures market for bitcoin.

Short selling involves a contract for a future value, who is writing the contract

 

Binance and many other crypto exchanges offer the option to short many coins. 

[how241]

4 hours ago, suzannegoh said:

Yes, that's usually what happens.  But isn't the mantra HODL?

Many ways to invest.  Some are HODLers,  others day trade.  No right or wrong as long as you're making money and having fun.  Good Luck to us all. 

[Heng]

Hodl but you should lock in your profit once in awhile unless you just enjoy watching it ride.