COVID-19: Thailand reports new daily record of 53 deaths; 4,786 new cases

[smedly]

1 minute ago, The Cipher said:

Actual counts for deaths and cases are probably both higher than published counts

different countries report in different ways - countries like India, Thailand and other 3rd world countries are almost certainly underreported - the UK is likely over reported 

 

which would you rather have

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Nobody ever wins a debate on the internet, and I don't expect to win any converts. But in the midst of all the panic mongering going on here these days, I felt compelled to provide a reasoned contrarian comment.

Panic mongering like this you mean:

 

Thai doctor on frontline: With Covid patients hospital beds are now in full capacity. More and more non-Covid patients are dying. Some could have been saved. Doctors now have to choose who has a better chance of survival and who has to vacate hospital bed to die at home.

 

https://twitter.com/Thai_Talk/status/1409454024026296322

[Danderman123]

8 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Death rates are likely to be broadly more accurate than case counts for a transmissible disease with a base case of asymptomatic.

 

Actual counts for deaths and cases are probably both higher than published counts, but the likelihood is that completely accurate figures would actually make Covid look less lethal than the published figures.

 

 

Hospital stay and short term symptoms are unfortunate, but are generally noise.

 

I don't have enough info to respond to long Covid. A quick Wikipedia search suggests that it's possible that nobody has enough info to respond at this time.

---

Nobody ever wins a debate on the internet, and I don't expect to win any converts. But in the midst of all the panic mongering going on here these days, I felt compelled to provide a reasoned contrarian comment.

And yet, in places like Brazil, India, and Russia, semi official sources say the death counts are wildly underestimated.

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Delta in Bangkok must be huge worry.

Worlds away in Oz couple of states have Delta and has been shown to transmit with "fleeting contact". Old news, but they discovered this in Oz through trace tracking. Traced a Delta positive person and looking for contacts. With CTV found that covid was transferred to a woman that had fleeting contact. 

The only thing shown about fleeting contact is on CCTV two people passing. That's not enough to show transmission. The womans  infection could have been anywhere/elsewhere. And why only in Australia ? 

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

I read somewhere yesterday that a 3rd dose of AZ also improves these figures dramatically so we could see recomendation changing from 2 doses to 3 doses for full protection, the 2 dose program was based on the original virus months ago, no reason why that won't change to 3 with the introduction of these new variants, I expect that to happen soon

Yes, I saw that on the bbc web site. They went on to say that the UK would not be administering 3rd doses because it didn’t seem morally right to do so, given that many in the world haven’t had a first dose.

 

as one of those without a first dose, I applaud their decision ????

[ThailandRyan]

17 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Death rates are likely to be broadly more accurate than case counts for a transmissible disease with a base case of asymptomatic.

 

Actual counts for deaths and cases are probably both higher than published counts, but the likelihood is that completely accurate figures would actually make Covid look less lethal than the published figures.

 

 

Hospital stay and short term symptoms are unfortunate, but are generally noise.

 

I don't have enough info to respond to long Covid. A quick Wikipedia search suggests that it's possible that nobody has enough info to respond at this time.

---

Nobody ever wins a debate on the internet, and I don't expect to win any converts. But in the midst of all the panic mongering going on here these days, I felt compelled to provide a reasoned contrarian comment.

And many of us will agree to disagree on your Binary point and stick with the affect is has as a human being on families, friends and then the person who has had it and still suffering.  Being a bean counter is not the same as being humanistic when it comes down to what is seen outside the black and white lines your linking it to.  Life has colors, numbers do not, unless your using a colored pencil to write said numbers.

Edited June 30, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[robblok]

48 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Death rates are likely to be broadly more accurate than case counts for a transmissible disease with a base case of asymptomatic.

 

Actual counts for deaths and cases are probably both higher than published counts, but the likelihood is that completely accurate figures would actually make Covid look less lethal than the published figures.

 

 

Hospital stay and short term symptoms are unfortunate, but are generally noise.

 

I don't have enough info to respond to long Covid. A quick Wikipedia search suggests that it's possible that nobody has enough info to respond at this time.

---

Nobody ever wins a debate on the internet, and I don't expect to win any converts. But in the midst of all the panic mongering going on here these days, I felt compelled to provide a reasoned contrarian comment.

I can only say study more about long covid because i can find countless articles. I agree with non serious hospital stay but not with the serious part. Anyway just think of 10%

 

How many people get long Covid?

Details of how many people are affected by long Covid are still emerging.

According to an estimate from the Office for National Statistics in May, 1.1 million people in the UK were reporting long Covid symptoms in the four weeks to 6 March 2021. These were defined as symptoms that had lasted more than four weeks from initial infection, though for more than two thirds of these people the symptoms had lasted more than 12 weeks. A fifth said their symptoms limited their daily activities a lot.

 

 

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/long-covid

Edited June 30, 2021 by metisdead
14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

[Bkk Brian]

"Seeing the most vulnerable members of our society effectively locked up in concentration camps through no fault of their own feels like a watershed moment for who we are as a society."

 

Major names like Italian-Thai Development, Sinothai Engineering and Construction (with its close ties to the public health minister) have been implicated in the latest pandemic wave. The reason the governments have chosen to introduce these latest measures is because Covid-19 outbreaks have occurred in the work camps of these major companies.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29138/opinion-these-are-the-moments-that-defines-a-nation/

[DrJack54]

Just now, morrobay said:

The only thing shown about fleeting contact is on CCTV two people passing. That's not enough to show transmission. The womans  infection could have been anywhere/elsewhere. And why only in Australia ? 

Australia has one of the lowest active cases in the community. I'm not pumping Oz up, it's just that with small numbers it's possible to track and trace at a level impossible in many other countries. 

BTW it wasn't down to one CTV piece of evidence. 

You need read up on this study. 

Plenty of info on the net. Not just from Australia. 

[hotelbri]

54 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

You do. You see numbers whereas I see people. 

And what do you think Generals see?

[tingtong]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Indonesia is in a mess we certainly don't want Thailand to compete with the same figures.

 

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1410039489641148420

 

 

A better comparison would be per population...

Then Thailand is near par with Indonesia (270m ppl there), and way worse than the Philippines...

And Malaysia would take the top spot (31m ppl), with about 2x more by % population then top of list Indonesia...

 

Either way, Thailand isn't in a good spot.

[The Cipher]

9 minutes ago, Misty said:

Can't really do the math when you don't really have the numbers.

 

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Your data for India is not consistent with actual reality.

 

Ok. Let's stress test the case and increase India Covid deaths by a factor of 10. We'll pretend that Covid deaths in India are now four million(!)

 

New math:

4,000,000/1,300,000,000 = 0.003.

13,000,000 pop growth - 4,000,000 net additional deaths from Covid = 9,000,000

 

Net pop growth is still ~9,000,000 even applying every single Covid death as a direct offset against the growth figure.

 

And in what other macro situation would a rate under 1% pass the threshold of materiality?

---

Since my notifications are blowing up, I will clarify that I don't think this is the comprehensive way of looking at the issue.

 

However, this ought to be a major consideration when formulating policy responses (although it isn't for various reasons). Covid is not solely a health issue, and the knee-jerk responses that we have taken as societies have had significant other knock-on effects.

 

Yes, every Covid death is a tragedy. And in a vacuum it would be nice to get this number to zero.

 

But there's a lot more that we ought to be considering. For every one Covid death averted, how many people suffer because of the restrictions imposed? Is a transitory period of structurally higher death rates really worth the cost of avoiding it? Does allowing Covid to hit those at risk actually smooth the demographic cliff facing aging societies, and does it actually help in the environmental fight?

 

I'm not out here fronting like I have the answer to those questions. But what irks me is that we didn't even try answering them. We avoided them because the questions are hard, and fear is easy, and pandering to the fearful is a great way for politicians to earn brownie points.

[The Cipher]

K I really gotta get back to work now.

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, hotelbri said:

And what do you think Generals see?

Why don't you go for it first?

[dinsdale]

12 minutes ago, morrobay said:

The only thing shown about fleeting contact is on CCTV two people passing. That's not enough to show transmission. The womans  infection could have been anywhere/elsewhere. And why only in Australia ? 

It's not only in Aus. It's the nature of the variant. It's airborne so can spread both inside and outside. What amazed me was the tennis at Wimbledon where fans have to wear mask whilst waking around but not in the stands and scenes of British football fans going mental with absolutely no-one wearing masks. Expect the numbers of Delta infections which are aleady going through the roof there to get even worse.

[wensiensheng]

12 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

14 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Death rates are likely to be broadly more accurate than case counts for a transmissible disease with a base case of asymptomatic.

 

Actual counts for deaths and cases are probably both higher than published counts, but the likelihood is that completely accurate figures would actually make Covid look less lethal than the published figures.

 

 

Hospital stay and short term symptoms are unfortunate, but are generally noise.

 

I don't have enough info to respond to long Covid. A quick Wikipedia search suggests that it's possible that nobody has enough info to respond at this time.

---

Nobody ever wins a debate on the internet, and I don't expect to win any converts. But in the midst of all the panic mongering going on here these days, I felt compelled to provide a reasoned contrarian comment.

Shouldn’t you, we, they, get more info on long Covid then? before we dismiss Covid as an unfortunate statistic that has killed millions of people in 18 months and is still killing.

 

whilst getting more info, perhaps look up antigenic drift and antigenic shift and consider that as a novel virus, our bodies may be particularly ill equipped to cope with Covid mutations. So reducing those may be important.

 

no need to panic, but no need to mindlessly go on as though nothing has happened either. The current situation, which clearly the world can handle given enough time and money, isn’t the worst possible situation the world could find itself in. Hope for the best, plan for the worst comes to mind.

 

apart from the day to day grind of cases, lockdowns, hospitalizations, financial suffering, deaths etc etc, there is a bigger picture to consider and just shrugging off a significant number of deaths that are a statistically small percentage of the population, may leave some larger risks uncovered.

 

math can only take you so far, then a whole new decision making process has to start. 

 

just how I see things. But I’m not a mathematician.

 

I’m still searching for posts that could be construed as “panic mongering”. They seem few and far between though. I’m eliminating any posts that may convey concern about the current and future situation, provided that they deal with reported facts. If you see “panic mongering” unsupported by facts, maybe call it out at the time?

[FarFlungFalang]

17 minutes ago, robblok said:

Smoking is a choice, you don't have to smoke. Covid is not a choice you get it and you can be in trouble. Not sure why you would compare the two. Smokers know what they are getting into. Normal people going on with their life getting covid because they have to work or go out have no chance. 

 

So IMHO comparing the two is not a fair thing.

More than 1 million of those didn't smoke but died because of second hand smoke with no choices made.Large numbers die in auto accidents that had no choice.Millions die of other causes without choosing to do so. 

The vast majority of covid deaths in the west occurred in the human waste bins we call aged care facilities yet the choice was made to allow those to be infected.In Australia people choose to isolate themselves from the world and each other in order to stop the spread.

Millions have died because obesity is a major cause of death from covid but I won't be so crass as to suggest they had a choice it's just a fact of life and death that many accept.Do you suggest that people who died from covid because of avoidable health conditions made the wrong choice?

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

I'm not out here fronting like I have the answer to those questions. But what irks me is that we didn't even try answering them. We avoided them because the questions are hard, and fear is easy, and pandering to the fearful is a great way for politicians to earn brownie points.

The questions are not hard at all.

 

We either put the measures in place to stop covid or we end up with overwhelmed hospitals, many more dying and far more suffering and panic than can be imagined. You've seen evidence of this, its all over hard hit countries yet you fail to take it into account as to why countries impose lockdowns, unbelievable! 

[dinsdale]

14 minutes ago, hotelbri said:

And what do you think Generals see?

Money.

[DrJack54]

4 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

K I really gotta get back to work now.

Hope so

[wensiensheng]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

It's not only in Aus. It's the nature of the variant. It's airborne so can spread both inside and outside. What amazed me was the tennis at Wimbledon where fans have to wear mask whilst waking around but not in the stands and scenes of British football fans going mental with absolutely no-one wearing masks. Expect the numbers of Delta infections which are aleady going through the roof there to get even worse.

Agreed, UK will see a large rise in cases I think.

 

but at the same time, I think they are at, or nearly at, a different phase in this Covid crisis. It APPEARS that they have vaccinated enough people to break the link between cases and hospitalizations. If so…. if, then the cases aren’t so important. In effect, they would be at the point where the whole world wants to be, behave “normally” because if you catch Covid it doesn’t matter because the vaccine will keep you from severe symptoms.

 

fairly tentative conclusion to reach at the moment, given long Covid and mutations etc, but I think they are getting close to as good as it gets.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies about smoking tobacco have been removed. 

[greenmonkey]

The real figures are much much higher... the UK with an almost fully vaccinated population just posted 20K+ infections in one day... and yet Thailands numbers only 5k a day... ????

[metisdead]

A post commenting on moderation regarding a reply to a removed post has been removed. 

[Sunderland]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

So if case counts are highly understated and there is significantly higher community transmission than reported, but death counts are generally broadly accurate (easier to track), then what does that say about how dangerous Covid actually is? ????

 

Questions for Plato.

I think it is highly debatable that "most" deaths in Thailand are tested for COVID-19. The deaths we see as statistics are for people who have already been hospitalized and tested for the virus, and then die. I doubt those who die at home or do not meet the requirements - especially out in the countryside - are ever tested at local health cljnics.

[Misty]

10 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

I think it is highly debatable that "most" deaths in Thailand are tested for COVID-19. The deaths we see as statistics are for people who have already been hospitalized and tested for the virus, and then die. I doubt those who die at home or do not meet the requirements - especially out in the countryside - are ever tested at local health cljnics.

 

Agreed.  We're hearing from contacts outside of Bangkok that if someone is dead already  there are significant incentives to not report or test.  If someone is very sick and needing help it gets reported.  But if someone has either had contact but is asymptomatic, or is dead - not so much.

[Macrohistory]

51 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

Ok. Let's stress test the case and increase India Covid deaths by a factor of 10. We'll pretend that Covid deaths in India are now four million(!)

 

New math:

4,000,000/1,300,000,000 = 0.003.

13,000,000 pop growth - 4,000,000 net additional deaths from Covid = 9,000,000

 

Net pop growth is still ~9,000,000 even applying every single Covid death as a direct offset against the growth figure.

 

And in what other macro situation would a rate under 1% pass the threshold of materiality?

---

Since my notifications are blowing up, I will clarify that I don't think this is the comprehensive way of looking at the issue.

 

However, this ought to be a major consideration when formulating policy responses (although it isn't for various reasons). Covid is not solely a health issue, and the knee-jerk responses that we have taken as societies have had significant other knock-on effects.

 

Yes, every Covid death is a tragedy. And in a vacuum it would be nice to get this number to zero.

 

But there's a lot more that we ought to be considering. For every one Covid death averted, how many people suffer because of the restrictions imposed? Is a transitory period of structurally higher death rates really worth the cost of avoiding it? Does allowing Covid to hit those at risk actually smooth the demographic cliff facing aging societies, and does it actually help in the environmental fight?

 

I'm not out here fronting like I have the answer to those questions. But what irks me is that we didn't even try answering them. We avoided them because the questions are hard, and fear is easy, and pandering to the fearful is a great way for politicians to earn brownie points.

 

 

You talk math while some of us talk elementary logic.  And that logic is this:  You can't cite the death rate being "low" now as proof the virus isn't that dangerous so restrictions should be lifted, because -- and this is the hard part that right-wing libertarians have such a hard time understanding:  Restrictions are in place now.  Remove the restrictions and the death rate soars.  Get it?

 

[smedly]

58 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Millions have died because obesity is a major cause of death from covid but I won't be so crass as to suggest they had a choice it's just a fact of life and death

what is the point of your post ?, it really is lost on me, you seem to trying to say something then arguing with yourself against it, might be best to just leave it there

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

Ok. Let's stress test the case and increase India Covid deaths by a factor of 10. We'll pretend that Covid deaths in India are now four million(!)

 

New math:

4,000,000/1,300,000,000 = 0.003.

13,000,000 pop growth - 4,000,000 net additional deaths from Covid = 9,000,000

 

Net pop growth is still ~9,000,000 even applying every single Covid death as a direct offset against the growth figure.

 

And in what other macro situation would a rate under 1% pass the threshold of materiality?

---

Since my notifications are blowing up, I will clarify that I don't think this is the comprehensive way of looking at the issue.

 

However, this ought to be a major consideration when formulating policy responses (although it isn't for various reasons). Covid is not solely a health issue, and the knee-jerk responses that we have taken as societies have had significant other knock-on effects.

 

Yes, every Covid death is a tragedy. And in a vacuum it would be nice to get this number to zero.

 

But there's a lot more that we ought to be considering. For every one Covid death averted, how many people suffer because of the restrictions imposed? Is a transitory period of structurally higher death rates really worth the cost of avoiding it? Does allowing Covid to hit those at risk actually smooth the demographic cliff facing aging societies, and does it actually help in the environmental fight?

 

I'm not out here fronting like I have the answer to those questions. But what irks me is that we didn't even try answering them. We avoided them because the questions are hard, and fear is easy, and pandering to the fearful is a great way for politicians to earn brownie points.

You don’t get it.

 

maybe this will help, pretend you work for the King of France, it’s 1374, and the first cases of Black Death are popping up. Your statistics show that only .003 per cent of the population has succumbed to the Black Death, so severe preventive measures are not required.

 

A year later, a third of the population has died.

 

The takeaway from this example is measuring deaths from a pandemic before it’s over maynot be informative.

[Danderman123]

27 minutes ago, greenmonkey said:

The real figures are much much higher... the UK with an almost fully vaccinated population just posted 20K+ infections in one day... and yet Thailands numbers only 5k a day... ????

I believe that the UK is about 50% vaccinated.