6 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Yes, me too at the end of the month.  May sadly be reaching 10,000 cases and over 100 deaths by then will have to decide what to do.

Again, where from.

I wasn't aware that folk were coming from way outside of bkk for a jab. 

No alternative? 

Just now, robblok said:

Yes in my country people died because covid was taking up ICU beds so normal operations had to be postponed. These were not counted as covid deaths. So things can get really bad if the hospitals cant cope.

We are so far behind with undiagnosed cancers, surgery postponements, elective surgeries, the list goes on and on and on.  And our hospitals were full with no doctors to treat any of this anyways.  

This is what the pandemic is about.  Keeping aa lid on this nothing more.  No place on the planet is prepared for this kind of influx of patients.  

So we're pulling our way out of it now and we will see what the future brings.  

1 hour ago, Swimfan said:

Deaths generally tail cases by about 21 days. So the death figure you are seeing now most likely come from the days of 2k cases a day

A sobering thought indeed.

 

 

53 minutes ago, smedly said:

I believe by that time they will have to start to re-vaccinate all those that got the Chinese junk with something that actually works against these new variants "and possible new variants we have yet to see", so anyone that has booked a spot for October might be dissapointed because the Thai government will prioritises these vaccines for their own, foreigners will drop down the priority to soi dog level again.

 

The only hope is that our governments get the finger out as France did and set up a vaccine program for their citizens abroad. The only other choice after that could be returning to you home country - you then be rinced upon your return to Thailand 

 

As far as returning to you home country, any Australians would want to arrange that ASAP.

The two nutjob premiers are now pushing to further reduce the very limited capped numbers of people returning.

 

I thought it was a basic human right, that your country cannot deny access to a passport holding citizen, but it seems Australia are making up their own rules with impunity.

Which is Very worrying.

 

On the other hand if you are away from Australia now, you might think yourself lucky as noone has been allowed to even leave for the past 18 months and it looks like a long time before they will be able to.

 

3 minutes ago, bamukloy said:

 

I thought it was a basic human right, that your country cannot deny access to a passport holding citizen,

I was under the same impression.

 

The right of return is a principle in international law which guarantees everyone's right of voluntary return to, or re-entry to, their country of origin or of citizenship. The right of return is part of the broader human rights concept freedom of movement and is also related to the legal concept of nationality.[1] While many states afford their citizens the right of abode, the right of return is not restricted to citizenship or nationality in the formal sense.[2] It allows stateless persons and for those born outside their country to return for the first time, so long as they have maintained a "genuine and effective link.

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

So, apart from vaccinations, what should the government do to deal with epidemic? Do you have any ideas on how to deal with full hospitals? 

It’s multi faceted of course and starts at the beginning of the chain of reducing cases and then working forward from there. 
 

but there is no quick fix now. The virus has gained momentum and there is a whole supply chain of cases in the mix already, so even if the most severe of lockdowns were imposed, the cases would get worse before they get better, ergo, the hospitalizations get worse before they get better, ergo deaths get worse before they get better.

 

it will be like turning a super tanker, not a speed boat.

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

We have got to the point now when deaths from road accidents are lower than #COVID19 deaths. Yesterday there were 37 deaths from accidents and 61 from covid #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1410768591603998720

 

That may at least stop people using road deaths as an irrelevant distraction, in an effort to minimalize how serious this is getting. 

 

 

We wanted to be the Hub of Vaccines.... now we are looking more like the hub of new variants ????

58 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Delta was reported at 25% in Bangkok last week and is growing rapidly.  The growing percentage of Delta is probably the main cause in the rise.

 

They also said last week they will start to monitor 1/3 of all cases for variants. We shall see.

 

I didn’t realize delta had grown to that big a percentage.

 

do you have any further stats on the breakdown of the variants? I’m particularly interested in whether delta is making its way up from the far southern provinces.

7 minutes ago, bamukloy said:

On the other hand if you are away from Australia now, you might think yourself lucky as noone has been allowed to even leave for the past 18 months and it looks like a long time before they will be able to

Completely untrue and incorrect information.

4 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I didn’t realize delta had grown to that big a percentage.

 

do you have any further stats on the breakdown of the variants? I’m particularly interested in whether delta is making its way up from the far southern provinces.

I think its beta more so in the far southern provinces, Delta was first identified in Bangkok

13 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

I was under the same impression.

 

The right of return is a principle in international law which guarantees everyone's right of voluntary return to, or re-entry to, their country of origin or of citizenship. The right of return is part of the broader human rights concept freedom of movement and is also related to the legal concept of nationality.[1] While many states afford their citizens the right of abode, the right of return is not restricted to citizenship or nationality in the formal sense.[2] It allows stateless persons and for those born outside their country to return for the first time, so long as they have maintained a "genuine and effective link.

This is what happens when the world faces something that we don't understand.  It happens in wars and natural disasters.  Speaking of these disasters, you are as good as a dog out in the pouring rain with no shelter.  

These people going for a holiday in Thailand leave me puzzled.  Its like climbers in Nepal who were stranded there after their summit attempts.  Nobody truly cares about you because there simply isn't enough time to care.  

Even with certainty returning I'm glad to be home and can only worry for those that cannot leave for one reason or another.  

Wear your mask, wash your hands don't touch your face don't go out unless you need to.  These numbers have to come down.  You can do it.  

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I think its beta more so in the far southern provinces, Delta was first identified in Bangkok

Perhaps I need to be interested in Beta coming up from the south AND delta coming down from the north ????.

 

actually, I was thinking that some delta cases in the south would help reduce or even eliminate beta cases due to its greater transmissibility, basically a stepping stone to delta becoming dominant countrywide.

 

hard to get Info to assess whether that is starting to happen or not.

10 minutes ago, robblok said:

Have you noticed that the goverment is not saying anymore that they got things under control. I havent seen anutin or Prayut saying anything the last couple of days.

 

Opening Phuket and others is also a disaster waiting to happen.

 

Stay safe. I have just paid for the moderna vaccine from the Thornbury hospital group. No idea when i will be vaccinated. But that is the only thing we can do.

 

Of course they haven't got it under control.   Humans can no more control a virus than they can control the tide.    Whilst Thailand escaped it for a while it is coming back here in a big way.    It has a long way to go until it reaches a peak as it did in India, but it will peak at some point and then start to drop just as we have seen in India and historically from every virus ever to infect humans regardless of whatever measures humans implement to "control" it.   

 

The suicide of that girl could have been prevented by allowing her to make an income from outdoor restaurants and bars without significantly increasing the spread of the virus, as covid does not do so well outdoors.    No-one is suggesting those at risk should be forced to go to restaurants or bars and can continue to live as though they are closed, but I would like people like her to be able to make a living, even if it is a small one as sensible measures would still need to be imposed.   Simply closing every avenue to allow someone like her to make an income is not a "sensible" measure.  

8 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Completely untrue and incorrect information.

Ok, I think most Aussies know the long story is that you can leave on socalled compassionate grounds IF you apply for permission to leave.

But if you are not married to a Thai and cannot show witten proof of such, proof of business or the like, you are not going anywhere as far as I know.

I'd love to hear from anyone who has been let out of Australia on other grounds though. 

Just now, wensiensheng said:

Perhaps I need to be interested in Beta coming up from the south AND delta coming down from the north ????.

 

actually, I was thinking that some delta cases in the south would help reduce or even eliminate beta cases due to its greater transmissibility, basically a stepping stone to delta becoming dominant countrywide.

 

hard to get Info to assess whether that is starting to happen or not.

I think the beta will indeed be killed off by the delta but currently and I'm paraphrasing this as its from the B.P. 

 

25% of all cases in Bangkok are delta while the alpha strain is decreasing to 74%

24 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I didn’t realize delta had grown to that big a percentage.

 

do you have any further stats on the breakdown of the variants? I’m particularly interested in whether delta is making its way up from the far southern provinces.

Delta is in Bangkok and most everywhere now. Beta (danm the WHO) is spreading from the southern border. Delta moves much faster, beta is much better at evading vaccines.

 

Found the reference, its on the BP in an article "Delta strain to dominate in the capital" June 29.

 

It said  that 25.66% of detected cases in Bangkok last week were of the Delta variant, an increase when compared with 23.67% in the previous week.

 

Note, the 25% figure is an instantaneous (weekly) reading in Bangkok and more relevant. Lower readings like 13% are averaged over a long period back to when delta was very low.  Also note, the move from 25% to 50% will be much faster.

 

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

76,592 cases in the last 4 wks. If it keeps going this way the nxt 4 wks will be >150,000 cases. Thailand by then will be knocking on the door of the top 40 worse ranked countries globally.

p.s. It hasn't seemed ok since mid-April.

I would argue that the time period between late April and early June, as shown by the green arrows, was a period of low growth of the epidemic. Something happened during that period that caused a big jump in cases later on.

7 minutes ago, James105 said:

 

Of course they haven't got it under control.   Humans can no more control a virus than they can control the tide.    Whilst Thailand escaped it for a while it is coming back here in a big way.    It has a long way to go until it reaches a peak as it did in India, but it will peak at some point and then start to drop just as we have seen in India and historically from every virus ever to infect humans regardless of whatever measures humans implement to "control" it.   

 

The suicide of that girl could have been prevented by allowing her to make an income from outdoor restaurants and bars without significantly increasing the spread of the virus, as covid does not do so well outdoors.    No-one is suggesting those at risk should be forced to go to restaurants or bars and can continue to live as though they are closed, but I would like people like her to be able to make a living, even if it is a small one as sensible measures would still need to be imposed.   Simply closing every avenue to allow someone like her to make an income is not a "sensible" measure.  

Right.. you know better then experts. In my country they stopped soccer and concerts (all outdoor) I think they did that in the UK too. So everyone is wrong and you are right.. good thing you don't make the rules.

4 minutes ago, James105 said:

 

Of course they haven't got it under control.   Humans can no more control a virus than they can control the tide.    Whilst Thailand escaped it for a while it is coming back here in a big way.    It has a long way to go until it reaches a peak as it did in India, but it will peak at some point and then start to drop just as we have seen in India and historically from every virus ever to infect humans regardless of whatever measures humans implement to "control" it.   

 

The suicide of that girl could have been prevented by allowing her to make an income from outdoor restaurants and bars without significantly increasing the spread of the virus, as covid does not do so well outdoors.    No-one is suggesting those at risk should be forced to go to restaurants or bars and can continue to live as though they are closed, but I would like people like her to be able to make a living, even if it is a small one as sensible measures would still need to be imposed.   Simply closing every avenue to allow someone like her to make an income is not a "sensible" measure.  

Exactly what are those sensible measures you propose to avoid the collapse of the health care system and the consequences of that.

 

You mentioned Sweden before, I take it you've reversed that decision? 

 

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand on Friday (July 2) reported 6,087 new COVID-19 cases and 61 additional deaths over the past 24 hours. 

Oh dear here we go.

Not good that the Thai health care system is getting overwhelmed already.  Best not to need any kind of critical care (heart attack, stroke, car accident, etc) right now - or for the foreseeable future.

 

A report from a contact in the US this morning:  in the US now, getting care for things like sudden spikes in blood pressure takes time.  GPs and specialists are taking much needed breaks after working over-time for 12-18 mos.

 

 

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

61 Deaths is a definite concern, a growing number of cases as well indicate that this has no intention of slowing down and unless vaccines are truly rolled out it will have true effects on the economy and tourism prospects.  Beds have filled up and many more are waiting for beds according to the 34 Amarin TV news this morning.  People are also very frustrated.

And from the chart, the priority still appears to be in Vaccinating people with a single shot only.

The numbers for the second shot remain fairly stagnant, and have been so for several Days now at just over2.25 Million.

Vaccination with One shot only is completely useless, specially with Sinosoup Vaccine that has a very low efficacy of only about 3 % with the single shot.

I guess the reasoning is that if you give people some Vaccine they may not catch the Virus, because they will have a little immunity.

Most other Countries are considering an actual 3rd Dose of Vaccine against the Delta variant due to its toxicity.

What are Thailand thinking above  " open up for Tourists in October "

This attitude is sending a message to me that the Country is close to being broke.

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Exactly what are those sensible measures you propose to avoid the collapse of the health care system and the consequences of that.

 

You mentioned Sweden before, I take it you've reversed that decision? 

 

 

 

Do you not understand that it is too late?  The virus is gaining momentum and it is too late to stop it now.   It will peak at some point and then it will naturally drop.   There is probably nothing that can be done at this point so all you can do is look at how much preventable destruction goes alongside it.   The only thing that can be done now is to try and increase the amount of hospital beds available, but again it is probably too late for that too.  

 

Let me ask what you would do to prevent similar sad stories such as the girl who killed herself at 30 years old due to not having an income nor even a light at the end of the tunnel without the easy and unlikely to happen option of giving people free money?    Sweden is the best of the bad options available.   

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I would argue that the time period between late April and early June, as shown by the green arrows, was a period of low growth of the epidemic. Something happened during that period that caused a big jump in cases later on.

April 16, I did say mid April not late April, there were 39,038 cases. Today it's 270,921. 231,883 cases in under 3 months. This represents around a doubling per month. Some would call this exponetial. 

Big today on social media about many of the new infections are of people who have already been double vaccinated with Sinovac.  This is getting serious. 

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

Big today on social media about many of the new infections are of people who have already been double vaccinated with Sinovac.  This is getting serious.  Just found this article and it is a couple of days old but does discuss the issue at hand.

 

https://www.chiangraitimes.com/health/thailand-releases-data-on-hospitalization-rate-after-covid-19-vaccines/

 

Vaccines do not prevent infection.   They were not designed to prevent infection.   They were designed to train cells to produce proteins to deal with the infection.  It should not be a surprise that vaccinated people are still getting infected.    

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

My GF, who is from MYanmar, has been trying to get registered for a vaccine, but was told "can not, Thai or falang only"  Looking to register her for the Moderna Vaccine, and she has been placed on a waiting list for our local private hospital.  She has better insurance than most, as she has a PCH Optima Plus plan, but people look down upon her as she is from Myanmar.  Her extended family all of them are now in the hospitals having been moved from the field hospital side as they are no longer asymptomatic and her two aunts are still on ventilators.

So sad to hear this Ryan

Your GF,s family being moved from the Field Hospitals to proper Hospitals really says everything about the planning of these Field Hospitals.

Cases such as this were bound to happen because everybody was placed into large, poorly ventilated spaces akin to Aircraft Hangers with little separation and Medical care.

I hope the GF,s folk pull through this.

Good Luck

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Big today on social media about many of the new infections are of people who have already been double vaccinated with Sinovac.  This is getting serious. 

And this from Thai news forum. Only had 2 pages of replies. I found it significant.

 

The Infectious Disease Association of Thailand (IDAT) is calling on the Thai government to procure mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, instead of China’s Sinovac, citing concerns over the Chinese vaccine’s efficacy against new variants, especially the virulent Delta strain.

8 hours ago, James105 said:

 

Do you not understand that it is too late?  The virus is gaining momentum and it is too late to stop it now.   It will peak at some point and then it will naturally drop.   There is probably nothing that can be done at this point so all you can do is look at how much preventable destruction goes alongside it.   The only thing that can be done now is to try and increase the amount of hospital beds available, but again it is probably too late for that too.  

 

Let me ask what you would do to prevent similar sad stories such as the girl who killed herself at 30 years old due to not having an income nor even a light at the end of the tunnel without the easy and unlikely to happen option of giving people free money?    Sweden is the best of the bad options available.   

The sad story you talk about would be replicated x100000 by the deaths of covid patients without appropriate measures.

 

Sweden had a covid death rate of 1,436 per million people, Thailand currently has a death rate of 31 per million people. Yet you try to hold Sweden as an example of what Thailand should be doing, nonsensical.

 

If you do care about the population, the economy and more people who will kill themselves because of lack of money then its not good saying its too late, that does nothing, it will only get worse.

 

Its never to late, countries don't just give up, its harder now to control yes but it can still be controlled to avoid those extra thousands of deaths that apparently is fine for you so long as a few suicides are avoided.

 

Go in hard now, full lockdown, they work, it will work after a 2 week lag to get the spread down and the hospitals time to avoid crisis and people dying at home because of no beds available. 

 

Again your solution is Sweden, yet this example of the suicide pales into insignificance with Swedens 14,500 covid deaths in a population of just 10 million.