37 minutes ago, smedly said:

That would only apply if it was random sample testing, it has been obvious for weeks that is not the case, they only test those who have either reported themselves for a test because they are sick or those connected to them if positive, so the positivity rate will be quite high for tests done, only those in places like Phuket would be showing a very low positivity rate because simply because they are not expected to be positive.

 

It is impossible to figure out accurate community spread unless they are doing mass random sample testing which they are not doing - likely for two reasons 

 

- they do not have the testing capacity and are not interested in increasing

- they do not want to show the actual true spread because it would make them look bad 

 

so the 102 new cases reported today in Pattaya are likely only a fraction of the actual true spread in Pattaya 

 

It is a shame that at this point we can only guess at the actual infection rates making this whole thing rather dangerous, they simply have no idea and neither do we and it seems they have no intention of doing anything different 

 

one of the key measures that other countries will use to rate Thailand's risk is "number of tests being done" - probably the most important because it directly relates to virus community spread 

In Chonburi, they do perform pro-active testing, typically about a thousand a day. This is in addition to testing performed during contact tracing, and testing at hospitals.

 

Dear nitpickers, if today Chonburi only performed 999 pro-active tests, it’s really not worth a post.

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Pretty much sums it up. 

Always been the case. Only now ,with the variant's seemingly higher transmission rate, more older and vulnerable family members are being infected by those asymptomatic . These older folk are the ones needing to visit hospital and therefore being tested and their cases reported. Just my take on it.

Just now, Danderman123 said:

In Chonburi, they do perform pro-active testing, typically about a thousand a day. This is in addition to testing performed during contact tracing, and testing at hospitals.

 

Dear nitpickers, if today Chonburi only performed 999 pro-active tests, it’s really not worth a post.

1.5 million in Chonburi province. 

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

It's bad but as one poster pointed out India's rate dropped like a rock after skyrocketing.  I am really hopeful that this happens with Thailand.

Have a good day.

 

Of course I hope you are right that India's actual infection rate has dropped.  But remember, only the official tested numbers - mostly from the urban areas - has dropped. 

 

My contacts in India think the infection (and a portion of the population) has moved to the rural areas where there is little to no testing and the authorities do not have much information as to the extent there.

Millions of Thais are closely following developments in the country’s acquisition of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, which are believed to be the most effective against the new coronavirus and its variants. Despite growing public anxiety over the country’s worsening outbreak, no mRNA vaccines are available in Thailand to date.

 

With a current daily toll of 5,000-plus new cases and dozens of fatalities, the government is offering only the AstraZeneca and Sinovac vaccines to people for free. For those willing to pay, the Sinopharm vaccine is also available. AstraZeneca is a viral-vector vaccine, while the Chinese Sinovac and Sinopharm brands are inactivated vaccines.

 

Thais’ patience is now running thin in the face of soaring COVID-19 cases and fatalities, and a widespread concern that the vaccines available are not capable of controlling an outbreak now being driven by the Delta variant. Several doctors, after all, have come down with the disease despite having already had two shots of the Sinovac vaccine.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-failure-to-procure-mrna-vaccines-proving-costly-as-contagion-spreads/

56 minutes ago, smedly said:

That would only apply if it was random sample testing, it has been obvious for weeks that is not the case, they only test those who have either reported themselves for a test because they are sick or those connected to them if positive, so the positivity rate will be quite high for tests done, only those in places like Phuket would be showing a very low positivity rate because simply because they are not expected to be positive.

 

It is impossible to figure out accurate community spread unless they are doing mass random sample testing which they are not doing - likely for two reasons 

 

- they do not have the testing capacity and are not interested in increasing

- they do not want to show the actual true spread because it would make them look bad 

 

so the 102 new cases reported today in Pattaya are likely only a fraction of the actual true spread in Pattaya 

 

It is a shame that at this point we can only guess at the actual infection rates making this whole thing rather dangerous, they simply have no idea and neither do we and it seems they have no intention of doing anything different 

 

one of the key measures that other countries will use to rate Thailand's risk is "number of tests being done" - probably the most important because it directly relates to virus community spread 

It's true that to get a good idea of the spread random testing is needed but some indication of spread can be seen by the numbers in the provincial numbers.The only indication from an increase in positivity rate is if the situation is getting worse which is of course a very limited indication which is their objective as they don't seem to want to give a clear indication of the situation for obvious reasons namely they might climb up the transparency and corruption index and that is apparently a bad thing like being honest or caring or god forbid showing compassion and empathy for the general population and I don't mean the population of Generals!

7 minutes ago, Misty said:

 

Of course I hope you are right that India's actual infection rate has dropped.  But remember, only the official tested numbers - mostly from the urban areas - has dropped. 

 

My contacts in India think the infection (and a portion of the population) has moved to the rural areas where there is little to no testing and the authorities do not have much information as to the extent there.

Well the Ganges isn't clogged yet.  But the pandemic is still young.  It's a toddler.  

We will be going on about COVID for ten more years at least.  It isn't going anywhere.  

This is the beginning of the failure of the medical system, at least in Bangkok for starters -- two of the country's largest and most prominent public hospitals:

 

Siriraj Hospital closes ER as Rajavithi Hospital suspends general surgery and new admissions

 

"(Sunday), Bangkok’s Siriraj Piyamaharajkarun Hospital announced the temporary closure of its Emergency Room, until further notice, due to the number of patients exceeding capacity.

 

The hospital did not say when the ER will resume operations, but apologised to members of the public for the inconvenience.

 

Meanwhile, Rajavithi Hospital also announced today the suspension of general surgery services and admission of in-patients, from Monday until July 16th, after some medical personnel were found to be infected with COVID-19, resulting in several others being quarantined.

 

Examination rooms and general surgery services remain in operation at the hospital, but only for current patients with set appointments. No new patients, or those transferred from other hospitals, will be accepted until July 16th."

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/siriraj-hospital-closes-er-as-rajavithi-hospital-suspends-general-surgery-and-new-admissions/

 

Socioeconomic and Behavioral Correlates of COVID-19Infections among Hospital Workers in  the Greater Jakarta Area, Indonesia: A Cross-Sectional Study

 

Abstract: (1) Background: because of close contacts with COVID-19 patients, hospital workers are among the highest risk groups for infection.

 

https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/10/5048/pdf

 

Equating health care workers propensity to contract covid following 2 Sinovac injections to the average person may be a false comparison.

With today's COVID update:

 

--Thailand surpassed 6,000 new daily COVID cases for three out of the past four days, a pandemic record.

 

--The 6,166 total new COVID cases reported Monday is the country's second highest one-day total ever, exceeded only by the 6,230 cases reported July 3. 

 

--The 6,082 general population cases reported Monday (excluding the 84 prison cases) is the country's highest general population daily total ever.

 

The recent general population daily totals (excluding prison cases) have been:

 

July 1:  5,489

July 2:  5,880

July 3:  5,936

July 4:  5,877

July 5:  6,082
 

--The 6,166 total new cases reported Monday more than doubles the 2,534 reported recoveries, meaning Thailand's population of hospitalized COVID patients will exceed 60,000 today and set another all-time pandemic high.

 

--New Thailand record for COVID patients in critical condition, 2,199.

 

--New Thailand record for total hospitalized patients, 63,520.

 

--Critical COVID cases on ventilators decline slightly from Sunday's record 616 number, down to 603 today.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/358239345794396/?type=3

 

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Remember some 3000+ are discharged every day, so there are always beds available every day, although only for as long as it takes to clean up.

There may be beds available but enough for everyone who needs one? What's especially concerning is the availability of critical care beds.

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

This is the beginning of the failure of the medical system, at least in Bangkok for starters -- two of the country's largest and most prominent public hospitals:

 

Siriraj Hospital closes ER as Rajavithi Hospital suspends general surgery and new admissions

 

"(Sunday), Bangkok’s Siriraj Piyamaharajkarun Hospital announced the temporary closure of its Emergency Room, until further notice, due to the number of patients exceeding capacity.

 

The hospital did not say when the ER will resume operations, but apologised to members of the public for the inconvenience.

 

Meanwhile, Rajavithi Hospital also announced today the suspension of general surgery services and admission of in-patients, from Monday until July 16th, after some medical personnel were found to be infected with COVID-19, resulting in several others being quarantined.

 

Examination rooms and general surgery services remain in operation at the hospital, but only for current patients with set appointments. No new patients, or those transferred from other hospitals, will be accepted until July 16th."

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/siriraj-hospital-closes-er-as-rajavithi-hospital-suspends-general-surgery-and-new-admissions/

 

As I've been saying for weeks now, not because I am at all smart but because we lived through what happened here.  

 

Look people, understand this:  If you have something that requires medical attention you could have a real problem. I am not scare mongering, I am telling you the way it will go.  

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

There may be beds available but enough for everyone who needs one? What's especially concerning is the availability of critical care beds.

Very shortly there are going to be no critical beds.  Sit back and watch it happen.  The peak isn't even here yet.  You are nowhere near the top for these numbers.  

 

These numbers need to come down pronto!  

26 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Dear nitpickers, if today Chonburi only performed 999 pro-active tests, it’s really not worth a post.

If you say what you mean I wouldn't have to nitpick.If you shave your head you won't have any nits it's quite simple really.No nits means no nitpicking.

PS 999 is about 1000 so well done, see you're improving!

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

This is the beginning of the failure of the medical system, at least in Bangkok for starters -- two of the country's largest and most prominent public hospitals:

 

Siriraj Hospital closes ER as Rajavithi Hospital suspends general surgery and new admissions

 

"(Sunday), Bangkok’s Siriraj Piyamaharajkarun Hospital announced the temporary closure of its Emergency Room, until further notice, due to the number of patients exceeding capacity.

 

The hospital did not say when the ER will resume operations, but apologised to members of the public for the inconvenience.

 

Meanwhile, Rajavithi Hospital also announced today the suspension of general surgery services and admission of in-patients, from Monday until July 16th, after some medical personnel were found to be infected with COVID-19, resulting in several others being quarantined.

 

Examination rooms and general surgery services remain in operation at the hospital, but only for current patients with set appointments. No new patients, or those transferred from other hospitals, will be accepted until July 16th."

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/siriraj-hospital-closes-er-as-rajavithi-hospital-suspends-general-surgery-and-new-admissions/

 

As you say, unfortunately it becomes a domino effect that cannot be stopped unless there's a break in the virus spread, with no sign of that yet then this is likely to increase dramatically, especially now with the Delta that is infecting vaccinated health workers and doctors who in turn have to quarantine and add to already stretched health care staff and services/beds.

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

There may be beds available but enough for everyone who needs one? What's especially concerning is the availability of critical care beds.

I am not saying there are enough beds for everyone. 

 

This is a very simple concept. 

 

Today, there are about 6000 new cases. 

 

Today, about 3,000 people will be discharged from the hospital. 

 

So, it's not a case of no beds being available, it's a case of not enough available beds. 

I am beginning to prepare for a significant increase in the number of infections - not that it's sure, but there is a possibility that this plague will intensify to the point that everyday life is severely impacted. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Today, about 3,000 people will be discharged from the hospital. 

 

The recovered number today was 2,534... so you're overestimating the actual recoveries by almost 500.  And that also means new cases reported today more than doubled the number of recoveries, which is simply unsustainable on an ongoing basis.

 

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am not saying there are enough beds for everyone. 

 

This is a very simple concept. 

 

Today, there are about 6000 new cases. 

 

Today, about 3,000 people will be discharged from the hospital. 

 

So, it's not a case of no beds being available, it's a case of not enough available beds. 

Is that what hospitals are telling people who get turned away? Beds are available but not enough? Even in the worst plagues beds would become available every day. The question is are there enough? Are people being turned away?

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am beginning to prepare for a significant increase in the number of infections - not that it's sure, but there is a possibility that this plague will intensify to the point that everyday life is severely impacted. 

 

 

You are late to the show but god speed 

36 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

In Chonburi, they do perform pro-active testing, typically about a thousand a day. This is in addition to testing performed during contact tracing, and testing at hospitals.

 

Dear nitpickers, if today Chonburi only performed 999 pro-active tests, it’s really not worth a post.

The wife and I packed up and left Thailand in mid May when there was an outbreak in our Chonburi neighborhood. 3 of 40 households were affected. It took up to a week for hospital beds to be found for those who had been tested positive. Other household members from the infected households had to wait up to a week to be tested. It was clear to us at that point in May that the hospitals were close to being overwhelmed. It can only be worse now. If testing where up to international standards the Thai numbers would be far worse than they are.

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Is that what hospitals are telling people who get turned away? Beds are available but not enough? Even in the worst plagues beds would become available every day. The question is are there enough? Are people being turned away?

In our neighborhood in May sick people were told to self quarantine at home until a bed became available. 

On the way to 10k. Thailand has done its best to turn a straightforward win into a smashing disaster.

 

This did not need to happen. The amount of money the govt has spent in handouts dwarfs the funds needed to have imported quality vaccines from available sources. It was the arrogance and greed of officials to limit the purchase of effective vaccines and instead buy crappy Chinese product (that even the Chinese themselves said was less effective!)
 

How many times did the private hospitals and other agencies beg the Thai govt to let them assist? And the govt stonewalled.

 

Since 1990, I’ve lived through many Thai coups and change of governments. Many of these governments had suspect characters and corrupt officials, but almost all had some redeeming elements to them. Even the controversial Mister T introduced 30baht hospital visits.

 

No govt would have done what this govt has done, which is nothing. How hard can it be to do the obvious?

 

1 minute ago, ABCbangkok said:

On the way to 10k. Thailand has done its best to turn a straightforward win into smashing disaster.

 

This did not need to happen. The amount of money the govt has spent in handouts dwarfs the funds needed to have imported quality vaccines from available sources. It was the arrogance and greed of officials to limit the purchase of effective vaccines and instead buy crappy Chinese product (that even the Chinese themselves said was less effective!)
 

How many times did the private hospitals and other agency beg the Thai govt to let them assist? And the govt stonewalled.

 

Since 1990, I’ve lived through many Thai coups and change of governments. Many of these governments had suspect characters and corrupt officials, but almost all had some redeeming elements to them. Even the controversial Mister T introduced 30baht hospital visits.

 

No govt would have done with this govt has done, which is nothing. How hard can it be to do the obvious?

 

 

 

 

 

The Sinovac vaccine is not crappy. There are plenty of studies to show that it's very powerful in keeping the infected from hospitalization and death. Just not very good at stopping transmission. If that's all that's on offer, take it. It's not like we currently have much of a choice in Thailand.

 

"Thailand’s Department of Medical Services (DMS) has joined with private agencies to improve the services of the 1668 COVID-19 call center, due to concerns about the virus situation in the country.

 

According to the department's Facebook page on Saturday morning, the demand for beds for COVID-19 patients has risen five-fold."

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10158121209857050

 

 

According to the department's Facebook page on Saturday morning, the demand for beds for COVID-19 patients has risen five-fold."

 

That's a whole lot greater increase, if accurate, than the recent rise in reported new COVID cases...

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

As I've been saying for weeks now, not because I am at all smart but because we lived through what happened here.  

 

Look people, understand this:  If you have something that requires medical attention you could have a real problem. I am not scare mongering, I am telling you the way it will go.  

The reality is yes it has happened elsewhere as we have seen, and yes it can and will possibly happen here, or as we see today is occurring here now.  The real worry is that those that can not get the help for regular medical needs will also suffer and be ancillary deaths.  Really sucks, that this Government could see it unfolding but decided to sit on their hands and do nothing except saying they have ordered vaccines and then continued to lie and create the mess we see now because in their own little world it was all under control.

30 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am not saying there are enough beds for everyone. 

 

This is a very simple concept. 

 

Today, there are about 6000 new cases. 

 

Today, about 3,000 people will be discharged from the hospital. 

 

So, it's not a case of no beds being available, it's a case of not enough available beds. 

Now who is nit picking.

 

but to continue in that vein, you are assuming that 3k people pack up their bags in the morning, then 3k people in the same locations, unpack their bags and move in, leaving 3k people out on the pavement.

 

in reality, the timing and locations don’t match, so your assertion that there are automatically approx 3k beds available doesn’t stand scrutiny on anything other than the most superficial of levels.

25 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

 

So, it's not a case of no beds being available, it's a case of not enough available beds. 

Straight from 'Yes Minister' 

Also reminds me very much of the Monty Python. Cheese shop. (With no cheese available) 

 

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

Bit of news that that's not helping. The big chemical fire last night in Bang Na area is causing  folk from Jurarat 9 hospital to be moved. One would expect just temporary safety measure.

Patients from Chularat 9 Hospital being evacuated as they are close to the factory fire #โรงงานกิ่งแก้วไฟไหม้ #SamutPrakan #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1411899968105840643

 

10,000 cases per day by year’s end not out of the question, senior doctor says

 

Thailand could see 10,000 Covid-19 cases per day by the year’s end unless the vaccination rate picks up, a senior doctor told Thai Enquirer on Monday.

 

The country is currently seeing close to 6,000 cases per day with +6,082 cases on Monday. The number has risen steadily from some 2,000 cases per day in early May.

 

Now a doctor at Siriraj Hospital say that a combination of unrestricted travel and the Delta variant of the virus could have the country facing 10,000 cases a day by year’s end.

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29372/10000-cases-per-day-by-years-end-not-out-of-the-question-senior-doctor-says/

 

https://aseannow.com/topic/1222821-10000-cases-per-day-by-year’s-end-not-out-of-the-question-senior-doctor-says/