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SURVEY: How high will this Covid wave go?


SURVEY: How high will this Covid wave go?  

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Posted

With Covid cases rising to the low 20,000s a day, how high do you think numbers will go before it plateaus and starts to decline?

 

Please feel free to leave a comment and explanation of your prediction.

  • Thanks 1
Posted

Actually, I ticked around 30k cases. Only random choice, with a strong hope they can deal with it until then.

  • Like 2
Posted
12 minutes ago, nowhereman said:

Official number 35000 a day, as cases just starting to pop up in the other provinces. Real number will be 3 times higher due to lack of testing,  asymptomatic and mild cases.  

And you do not think that all provinces report? We are talking about laboratory confirmed cases like in any other country.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 2
Posted (edited)

I reckon we se will 60K+ within 2 months, based up a 2% per day gain.

 

The only way to reel the numbers in is to revert back to testing protocols of mid 2020.

Edited by Ralf001
Posted

Other than shelter-in-place what is there to slow the progression?

 

Some CCSA officials did mention the 40,000 figure, so it's not a total surprise.

 

The deaths should be easier to forecast; they've got a lot of people classified as serious, and a large portion of those on ventilators.

 

 

 

 

Posted

Didn't almost evey country have upps and downs before the vaccine? Even Sweden, with very few restrictions, came down significantly last summer. Hopefully Thailand will reach a period with easing, the vaccine impact will take a while.... 

Posted

according to a mathematical simulation done a week ago, the pick would be 14-29.9 with up to 45k positives and 400-500 deaths daily.

I suspect, that simulation run today would show October and figures 20% higher.

 

Posted (edited)

The survey is skewed as there is an upper bound of 50k, Nobody can predict the upper limit it is not even 100% of the entire population as there are many examples of people even vaccinated being reinfected in other countries. I sadly expect millions of cases and possibly 100k fatalities before restrictions end and like the common cold and influenza this corona virus may be around for all of our lifetimes.

 

Even in democratic states with thorough undoctored statistics , mass testing no one can predict exactly as the virus mutations will determne its ablity to reproduce..

 

I am sure the author is well meaning and just hoping to gauge opinion, However if he c could merely add more than 50k as a choice we would have a more meaningful picture of sentiment .

Such skewed surveys are part of the misinformation rife at present. At present it would be absolutely accurate for some Thai hack to report something like

"only  a score  of aseannow respondants saw figures of 40k likley and none higher etc"

 

After a few mangled mistranslations this becomes few foresee more problems ahead, all will be fine,the government is super and there'll be jam tomorrow, the stuff of misrepresentation since Goebbels.

 

Or at the moment of posting , with 94% of the population unvaxxed it is almost impossible to predict might be more helpful.

 

My vade mecum Huff's classic textbook

"how to lie with statistics"

is now freely available as a downloadable pdf, a sobering read.

 

https://www.horace.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/How-to-Lie-With-Statistics-1954-Huff.pdf

 

A brief amusing take on how presentation works from BBC comedy Yes Minister

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

Edited by RubbaJohnny
  • Like 2
Posted
27 minutes ago, Capella said:

Infections aren't the most important thing here - of much more concern are hospitalisations and deaths. That said, I'm thinking 25,000 infections per day tops:

 

On the negative side:

1) Thais often live in large families and/or in close proximity to others, and

2) The Delta strain seems to spread more quickly that others

 

On the positive side:

1) Thais don't shake hands or hug like we do in the west, and

2) Thailand's population is not as large as countries with lots more infections, like the US, India, etc, and

3) Vaccination, while off to a slow start, will pick up before too long, with most vulnerable people having received at least one dose now, unlike countries where the virus was being transmitted before the vaccine was available

 

I'm optimitstic that things will soon improve.

Good points I hope you are correct, optimism is good.prepare for the worst  hope fr the best.

  • Like 2
Posted
5 hours ago, nowhereman said:

Did I miss the topic again?

No, but you missed the information you quoted. I wrote that they register all laboratory confirmed tests like any other country. Not how many test they make.

Posted

Well going on the predictions of  Corivirus   numbers increasing 

Thailand  can forget any Tourists arriving in numbers for this year

maybe after more vaccinations of the population  middle of  2022

 

Posted

I agree. The numbers are very much higher. Without accurate reporting very hard to tell. Vaccines are so slow I think we are looking at natural herd amenity. When the numbers start dropping significantly we will know herd imunity has started. I think to little to late and with sinovac the Vaccines won't beat natural herd imunity.

  • Like 2
Posted
7 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

And you do not think that all provinces report? We are talking about laboratory confirmed cases like in any other country.

Would you mind posting your supporting documents confirming that ALL cases are being reported!

Much appreciated

  • Sad 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Capella said:

That said, I'm thinking 25,000 infections per day tops:

 

.

I doubt the government will report to more than that... we all know the actual numbers to be much much higher.

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, Gottfrid said:

No, but you missed the information you quoted. I wrote that they register all laboratory confirmed tests like any other country. Not how many test they make.

And what about the non lab confirmed... these new DIY antigen test kits are showing up many.

12 at my work on Friday, they wont make the "official" stats.

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

They say, the trend is your friend.  So 30k per day will come soon enough.  After that, maybe a plateau.

Too bad Thailand doesn't have enough effective vaccines. That’s the biggest reason we’re in this predicament. 

I believe Covid came through here last year, but they didn’t test enough—for whatever reason.

Edited by Isaan sailor
  • Like 1
Posted

I choose 30k. However, I think the official numbers will "peak" at the level of tests they can confirm in a day. 

 

They obviously cannot test enough. There are very likely already 30k or more per day. 

  • Like 1
Posted
9 hours ago, nowhereman said:

Official number 35000 a day, as cases just starting to pop up in the other provinces. Real number will be 3 times higher due to lack of testing,  asymptomatic and mild cases.  

Once the Sinovac vaccines start waning its going to be really bad.

 

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, Uroller said:

Would you mind posting your supporting documents confirming that ALL cases are being reported!

Much appreciated

All cases aren't being reported.

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Uroller said:

Would you mind posting your supporting documents confirming that ALL cases are being reported!

Much appreciated

What? Why? Do you have something supporting the opposite?

The supporting document that shows all registered laboratory confirmed cases are official and publicized daily. One place you can find the daily cases are by reading on Thai Visa as an example.

Now you can show me the documents supporting those numbers are false.

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