Will this pandemic ever end as the infections in the UK surge again.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Medicine is an applied science as opposed to a pure science

But epidemiology and virology are pure sciences. And because of them we know why the vaccinated are far better protected than those who are not.

[RJRS1301]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

But epidemiology and virology are pure sciences. And because of them we know why the vaccinated are far better protected than those who are not.

True, and the minds of scientists are open to new facts, findings, analysing the newly found data, and information, testing the theories, liaising with each other and exchanging ideas to deliver best possible outcomes.

Very few disciplines of science are fixed and immutable, and bearing in mind even though Corona Viruses have been examined for some time, this spread among the populations is unprecedented.  Therefore recognising bias and being open to new findings is tantamount to successes 

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

True, and the minds of scientists are open to new facts, findings, analysing the newly found data, and information, testing the theories, liaising with each other and exchanging ideas to deliver best possible outcomes.

Very few disciplines of science are fixed and immutable, and bearing in mind even though Corona Viruses have been examined for some time, this spread among the populations is unprecedented.  Therefore recognising bias and being open to new findings is tantamount to successes 

Very true.  But recommending drugs like ivermectin for use even though it's never been tested is wrong.  Study it, sure.  Recommend it before a substantial study?  No.  Joe Rogan should be jailed for this.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

True, and the minds of scientists are open to new facts, findings, analysing the newly found data, and information, testing the theories, liaising with each other and exchanging ideas to deliver best possible outcomes.

Very few disciplines of science are fixed and immutable, and bearing in mind even though Corona Viruses have been examined for some time, this spread among the populations is unprecedented.  Therefore recognising bias and being open to new findings is tantamount to successes 

And is it your contention that these preconditions aren't the case?  

[RJRS1301]

21 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Very true.  But recommending drugs like ivermectin for use even though it's never been tested is wrong.  Study it, sure.  Recommend it before a substantial study?  No.  Joe Rogan should be jailed for this. 

I am not sure any accredited scientist has recommended it, some doctors may have said something about it, and in  instances there was a limited trial of it being used in treatment, along with other drugs.

 

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

 

[RJRS1301]

18 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And is it your contention that these preconditions aren't the case?  

When, and where have I written anything remotely like that or even intimated that?

I think you need to reread what was written and what I responding to. Check your comprehension please before making that scurrilous accusation 

 

 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

When, and where have I written anything remotely like that or even intimated that?

I think you need to reread what was written and what I responding to. Check your comprehension please before making that scurrilous accusation 

 

 

First of all I made no accusation. I asked a question. And the reason I asked that question was the comment you made concerns that should be taken for granted. So why raise the issue at all?

[RJRS1301]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

First of all I made no accusation. I asked a question. And the reason I asked that question was the comment you made concerns that should be taken for granted. So why raise the issue at all?

I was making a statement of fact, pure and simple, as opposed on some here who feel they can spout pseudo science and pass it as fact.

 

[Jeffr2]

24 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

I am not sure any accredited scientist has recommended it, some doctors may have said something about it, and in  instances there was a limited trial of it being used in treatment, along with other drugs.

 

 

Agreed, but many members here have been promoting it for a very long time.  They get their info from social media, not accredited scientists. 

[Scott]

Inflammatory post and reply removed.  Keep it civil or face a suspension.  

 

[Danderman123]

On 10/29/2021 at 8:29 PM, RJRS1301 said:

I am not sure any accredited scientist has recommended it, some doctors may have said something about it, and in  instances there was a limited trial of it being used in treatment, along with other drugs.

 

I hope you know that the most positive clinical studies for Ivermectin were withdrawn due to possible fraud or sloppy work. The remaining studies do not support the use of Ivermectin as a treatment for Covid19.

[RJRS1301]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I hope you know that the most positive clinical studies for Ivermectin were withdrawn due to possible fraud or sloppy work. The remaining studies do not support the use of Ivermectin as a treatment for Covid19.

When have I ever even mentioned any treatments of any type for Covid 19, much let alone the "I" label of a  medication to treat parasitic infections??

Please show me.

 

[placeholder]

On 10/30/2021 at 10:39 AM, RJRS1301 said:

I was making a statement of fact, pure and simple, as opposed on some here who feel they can spout pseudo science and pass it as fact.

 

This kind of ingenuousness recalls the observations of psychologist that if you want people not to think about rabbits don't mention them even if you are saying "Don't think about rabbits". So when you mention that scientists should be open-minded to new facts of course it raises doubts that maybe they aren't being open minded.

 

[fjb 24]

The majority of new covid infections in the UK are occurring in the vaccinated now and the UK Health Security Agency published covid numbers continue to get worse there.

Recently they have been under pressure to modify their reporting, (refer to enclosed link) being accused of publishing 'misleading' figures. Their weekly covid surveillance reporting data shows more vaccinated people compared to unvaxxed are getting infected.

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-dr-jenny-harries-covid-19-vaccine-surveillance-statistics/

 

Most would prefer honest and factual covid reports and hopefully the UK Health Security Agency continues reporting reality.

 

[GrandPapillon]

right, it's the same all over Europe, hence why they need the third shot for everyone, not only the older people

 

if you look at Israel, they are now the model for western countries, after a third shot, there will be a new wave, maybe next year

 

what that means is that the virus keep circulating and will need to have booster every 6 or 9 months

[fjb 24]

I would expect only or mostly vaccinated people to get infected as vaccination rates increase. At some point (99% vaccination), if its even possible to achieve, all infections will be in the vaccinated, and continue unabated unless new treatments and vaccines emerge that can stop or eliminate covid flu.

[placeholder]

24 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

The majority of new covid infections in the UK are occurring in the vaccinated now and the UK Health Security Agency published covid numbers continue to get worse there.

Recently they have been under pressure to modify their reporting, (refer to enclosed link) being accused of publishing 'misleading' figures. Their weekly covid surveillance reporting data shows more vaccinated people compared to unvaxxed are getting infected.

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-dr-jenny-harries-covid-19-vaccine-surveillance-statistics/

 

Most would prefer honest and factual covid reports and hopefully the UK Health Security Agency continues reporting reality.

 

Well, I actually read the link, and as the author of that letter points out, what we may be looking at is a statistical artefact. That is to say that those who are tested aren't being randomly chosen. It's based on people who voluntarily come forward to be tested.  So it's not a random sampling. And I don't think it's hard to understand why those who choose not to be vaccinated would prefer not to come forward, given the official stance on vaccinations.

There is also the question of an overcount of the eligible population

So your preference that the agency continues to report reality would only be valid if the reality was being reported all along.

Also, what possible immunological explanation would there be for the vaccinated to have a higher rate of infection than the unvaccinated? Especially given that the unvaccinated are still at a much higher risk for severe cases and death. And those numbers re severe illness and death, are the most important ones.

 

[fjb 24]

Similar situation in IE, high vaccination rates but they are getting sick too.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642

[Scott]

6 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

Similar situation in IE, high vaccination rates but they are getting sick too.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-has-one-of-the-highest-vaccination-rates-in-the-world-so-why-are-cases-surging-12461642

We've known from the beginning with the original strain that the various vaccines were roughly in the 60% to 90+% efficacy level.  We also know that with Delta this dropped dramatically.  

We also know that the more contagious a disease, the higher the % of immunized has to be to achieve herd immunity.   In the case of the link you shared, they have reached that with adults, but there is still a very large reservoir of unvaccinated, mainly children & adolescents.   They are good reservoir for viruses since they can be either asymptomatic or mild enough to not need medical care.  

We also have to take into account the earliest vaccinations were primarily given to the elderly and immunocompromised.  Their risk for lower levels of immunity even with a vaccine are higher and thus the number of breakthrough cases is likely to be higher.  

 

At this point, I think we need to start looking at which vaccines are most at risk for any particular age group and how long immunity actually lasts.  

 

It also needs to be noted that the higher the level of vaccination, the more likely it is that we will see an increase in the rate of breakthrough cases.   Vaccinated people are less susceptible but vaccines are still not 100% -- especially if the virus is still circulating.

[Jeffr2]

16 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

right, it's the same all over Europe, hence why they need the third shot for everyone, not only the older people

 

if you look at Israel, they are now the model for western countries, after a third shot, there will be a new wave, maybe next year

 

what that means is that the virus keep circulating and will need to have booster every 6 or 9 months

Not exactly.  The unvaccinated are creating a lot of problems in Europe.  Along with relaxed restrictions.  Time to get tougher with the vaccine holdouts.  Which luckily, is happening.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/04/europe/europe-covid-winter-who-projection-intl/index.html

 

Europe facing 500,000 more Covid deaths by February, WHO warns

 

"We are at another critical point of pandemic resurgence," Kluge said. He blamed two factors for the new wave; the relaxation of Covid-19 measures, and a lack of vaccination coverage in the Balkans and towards the east of the continent.

 

"Hospitalization rates in countries with low vaccine uptake are markedly higher and rising more quickly than in those with higher uptake," he said.

 

Germany's health minister Jens Spahn on Wednesday warned that stricter measures are needed for those who refuse to get vaccinated.

[Danderman123]

16 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

I would expect only or mostly vaccinated people to get infected as vaccination rates increase. At some point (99% vaccination), if its even possible to achieve, all infections will be in the vaccinated, and continue unabated unless new treatments and vaccines emerge that can stop or eliminate covid flu.

At very high vaccination levels, the R0 number drops below 1, and the epidemic ends.

[Jeffr2]

40 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

At very high vaccination levels, the R0 number drops below 1, and the epidemic ends.

The epidemic ends, but covid will be with us for a long time.  Just like the flu.  I believe Pfizer is working on a dual jab for next year.  Covid and the flu.

[Scott]

12 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

The epidemic ends, but covid will be with us for a long time.  Just like the flu.  I believe Pfizer is working on a dual jab for next year.  Covid and the flu.

Without a reservoir animal to keep reigniting the virus, it is possible to rid ourselves of the virus, at least theoretically.  I suspect that the large number of anti-vaxxers combined with the extent to which this virus has spread, that possibility is in the very distant future.  SARS-1 was defeated with mitigation only.  It was less contagious but more deadly but quick action world wide stopped it.  

 

Influenza exists in animals and recombines each year, so one year we are getting the bird flu, the next the swine flu, then some new combination comes along.  

[BritManToo]

16 minutes ago, Scott said:

Without a reservoir animal to keep reigniting the virus, it is possible to rid ourselves of the virus, at least theoretically. 

Too late .............

 

"Finally, we know that SARS-CoV-2 can infect many species other than pangolins and humans. Up to 40% of all dogs tested in the US have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Several variants infect feral house and field mice. Up to 30% of all white-tailed deer in the northeast test positive for Covid-19 antibodies. Reports of infection of both domestic and large cats held in zoos were reported in the early days of the pandemic.

 

SARS-CoV-2, like the influenza virus, can engage in zoonotic volleyball. Infections from animals can make their way into humans. SARS-CoV-2 strains have infected mink, and mink have returned the favor by infecting humans. As early as January 2021, farmed mink in Denmark showed signs of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These viruses were relayed back to human populations and subsequently sequenced. A study by Bayarri-Olmos et al. indicates that a mutation directly derived from the mink zoonotic transmission, Y453F in the receptor-binding domain, results in up to four-fold higher ACE2 receptor affinity, suggesting a far more transmissible virus. In the future, we must be aware of new variants emerging from fauna that inhabit our ecosystem."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/09/13/animal-reservoirs-of-covid-19-may-trigger-new-rounds-of-human-disease/

Edited November 8, 2021 by BritManToo

[Scott]

5 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Too late .............

 

"Finally, we know that SARS-CoV-2 can infect many species other than pangolins and humans. Up to 40% of all dogs tested in the US have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Several variants infect feral house and field mice. Up to 30% of all white-tailed deer in the northeast test positive for Covid-19 antibodies. Reports of infection of both domestic and large cats held in zoos were reported in the early days of the pandemic.

 

SARS-CoV-2, like the influenza virus, can engage in zoonotic volleyball. Infections from animals can make their way into humans. SARS-CoV-2 strains have infected mink, and mink have returned the favor by infecting humans. As early as January 2021, farmed mink in Denmark showed signs of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These viruses were relayed back to human populations and subsequently sequenced. A study by Bayarri-Olmos et al. indicates that a mutation directly derived from the mink zoonotic transmission, Y453F in the receptor-binding domain, results in up to four-fold higher ACE2 receptor affinity, suggesting a far more transmissible virus. In the future, we must be aware of new variants emerging from fauna that inhabit our ecosystem."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/09/13/animal-reservoirs-of-covid-19-may-trigger-new-rounds-of-human-disease/

Being able to catch a disease and being a reservoir for it are very different.  There is nothing to indicate that any animal is acting as a reservoir for Covid-19.  

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

Being able to catch a disease and being a reservoir for it are very different.  There is nothing to indicate that any animal is acting as a reservoir for Covid-19.  

 

Well, that article did say that minks in fact did transmit covid to humans. That said, I think it would really only be dangerous if it started infecting livestock the way influenza affects ducks and pigs in China.

[placeholder]

19 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

right, it's the same all over Europe, hence why they need the third shot for everyone, not only the older people

 

if you look at Israel, they are now the model for western countries, after a third shot, there will be a new wave, maybe next year

 

what that means is that the virus keep circulating and will need to have booster every 6 or 9 months

No one actually knows yet whether or not more boosters will be needed. Some vaccines require more than 2 inoculations to provide long lasting protection. In addition to which there are oral and nasal vaccines in development which early test results indicate may be far more effective at stopping transmission.

Edited November 8, 2021 by placeholder

[Scott]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

Well, that article did say that minks in fact did transmit covid to humans. That said, I think it would really only be dangerous if it started infecting livestock the way influenza affects ducks and pigs in China.

The mink farm situation probably says more about the problem of infectious diseases in factory farming than it does about the virus.  We've seen what happens with influenza when it hit the large chicken factory farm.  

Humans seem to be the desired species but that doesn't preclude other species.  The longer the virus is around, spreading, and mutating, the greater the danger it will find a species that will match well and make the virus a longer-term problem. 

 

It is, however, more theoretical than practical at this point.  

[Oblomov]

On 10/24/2021 at 11:02 AM, Leveraged said:

 

This is happening even in places like Singapore where vaccination rates are extremely high. As soon as they lift restrictions, the virus spreads, government panics, starts talking about restrictions and lockdowns again. Oz has had some of the longest and most brutal lockdowns of the whole pandemic, and no doubt as soon as they lift it, cases will rise, they'll panic, and people will be home again. 

 

Moving forward, the only real option is to vaccinate everyone and move on. You will eventually catch covid, and no amount of face coverings and hand gel is going to stop it. Perpetual lockdowns and restrictions is unsustainable and more and more people are over it, but theres unfortunately a significant portion of people who refuse to let covid go and move on from it. In the west it seems to circle around country politics. 

UK had an increase - That was mostly due to schools reopening and most of the increase was in those students so that was inevitable - there was a small increase in hospitalizations and that was mostly unvaccinated - of the vaccinated that became ill, all were either clinically and dangerously obese or over 70 or had very serious pre-existing conditions. In fact most of those again were in their 80s and 90s so would have succumbed to almost any other medical condition. When did we learn to ignore our mortality and all of the nasties that determine this, as well as what we could do for ourselves to get slimmer, fitter and therefore encourage a more robust immune response for ourselves.

 

When looking at increases in cases, it is important to look at factual context just as we once did with all of the other much more serious conditions that never seemed to elicit the same level of panic.

 

Causing economic chaos and personal ruin for a generation should never have been part of the solution to a virus that shares so much with a flu virus, especially its ability to mutate and increase its transmission rate.

[sezze]

50 minutes ago, Scott said:

The mink farm situation probably says more about the problem of infectious diseases in factory farming than it does about the virus.  We've seen what happens with influenza when it hit the large chicken factory farm.  

Humans seem to be the desired species but that doesn't preclude other species.  The longer the virus is around, spreading, and mutating, the greater the danger it will find a species that will match well and make the virus a longer-term problem. 

 

It is, however, more theoretical than practical at this point.  

True , but unrealistic . We need food . We are with too much people , and while it is nice to dream of some plants and animals in the garden , it is not doable for most population. Factory farming is a way to get enough food on our plate , while the situation needs to be improved to make the life of the animals as good as possible , at the moment it is the only way .