Inflation in the USA - Does it worry you?

[EVENKEEL]

I understand if you removed all footprints from USA when you retired in Thailand, you don't really care. But for me who's visiting the USA taking care of business and property the cost of everything from food, building materials, labor to filling up the car is terrifying. Some places have reported gas prices exceeding $7.00/gal. I'm paying $4.69/gal. And don't get me started on how prices of homes have and are skyrocketing.

 

And an odd phenomena is businesses can't find workers. Fast food joints don't have in seat dining because they can't find help. Old people doing the jobs of students. Ships with goods stranded at anchor outside LA. The US has gone mad. 

[HeijoshinCool]

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Left LOS in May for my home state of Florida, planning on building a house over the summer, to use as a home base.

 

Pre-"covid", the price of a 2x4 x8 was $1.51. Six months ago it was $7.50. I had land and was ready to build, but after examining the situation, well, I'm smarter than that. Supply chain is broken. Flying in, I saw freighter after freighter in the water off LAX, and more at anchor off Singapore.

 

The house I sold for $78k in August of 2020, resold last month for $122K to a New Yorker. I sold my acre of land for three times what I paid for it in May of 2020.

 

I sold my 1995 Ford F150 for $16,700. To be fair, it only had 95,000 miles on it. But used car prices have inflated 24.1% this year alone.

 

Biden changes his depends, and thinks he has averted a disaster. 

 

By spring, it will all come crashing down. And like dominos, each country will get knocked down in succession. 

 

Stock up.

[HeijoshinCool]

16 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

And an odd phenomena is businesses can't find workers. Fast food joints don't have in seat dining because they can't find help.

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Yep, driving from Florida to Salt Lake City, then on to Los Angeles, virtually every business had Help Wanted signs posted. Small businesses, nationwide chains. Can't even get inside most restaurants anymore because no wait staff; drive-thru only. PetSmart, Kohls, Home Depot, Safeway, Kroger, all need help. Smith's supermarket in SLC offered $18.50 for cashiers, deli, produce. Can't fill the positions, and can't fill the shelves.

 

The media says it is because people want to stay on unemployment. That is pure BS. 

 

There is another reason, one that defies belief, and is best not spoken of out loud, but boils down to this: the people to fill the vacancies no longer exist.

[Leveraged]

Yes it worries me. Should worry everyone. 

 

Fact of the matter is whats going on in the USA is unsustainable and is absolutely going to come crashing down. Everything from the stock market to the price of gas is overpriced and overvalued. 

 

 

[EVENKEEL]

40 minutes ago, HeijoshinCool said:

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Yep, driving from Florida to Salt Lake City, then on to Los Angeles, virtually every business had Help Wanted signs posted. Small businesses, nationwide chains. Can't even get inside most restaurants anymore because no wait staff; drive-thru only. PetSmart, Kohls, Home Depot, Safeway, Kroger, all need help. Smith's supermarket in SLC offered $18.50 for cashiers, deli, produce. Can't fill the positions, and can't fill the shelves.

 

The media says it is because people want to stay on unemployment. That is pure BS. 

 

There is another reason, one that defies belief, and is best not spoken of out loud, but boils down to this: the people to fill the vacancies no longer exist.

The workers didn't just disappear. What's wrong with these people. Where are the high school kids who used to take fast food jobs? College students taking part time jobs? Schools are open so parents can't use that excuse.

[Grecian]

Same thing happening in the uk! Jobs galore, Nobody wants them!

With so many unemployed where is the demand coming from to cause the inflation?

 

[habanero]

1 hour ago, EVENKEEL said:

The workers didn't just disappear. What's wrong with these people. Where are the high school kids who used to take fast food jobs? College students taking part time jobs? Schools are open so parents can't use that excuse.

People with kids are receiving monthly child care checks that are suppose to be used for childcare while the parents go to work. But, the people are just figuring why pay someone else? I will just stay home and keep the money myself.  

[GinBoy2]

I'm kinda perplexed by this myself, but it seems to be a global issue for some inexplicable reason.

 

I read the UK news and they are in almost the same boat. No truck drivers, shortage of restaurant, grocery, meat packers the list goes on.

 

My german is a little rusty, but if I read german news correctly the same is true there as well.

 

So don't know what the f*#*k is going on but it seems like a global pandemic of insanity!

[The Cipher]

I work in institutional finance. Very worried about inflation. Most of my compatriots seem to be as well, and I feel quite sure that the consensus view on the Street generally differs from central bank and government messaging.

 

It's highly likely that more money printing coming in the future, and you can already see the government desperately scrambling to fund their spending plans. Yellen's recent proposition of an unrealized gains tax is an example.

[Gottfrid]

Yes, the western world have always been riding towards disaster. However, it´s the same way in most countries in one way or another. So, absolutely no reason the let the US stand out again. It´s just time for them to understand they need to take care of internal problems instead of trying to rule the world. The world will still spin without so much interference.

[zzaa09]

What should truly worry you lot is the deepest illusion that the American culture has been under for quite some time - and certainly not recognized as such.

Cycling around in not a very nice manner.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

I work in institutional finance. Very worried about inflation. Most of my compatriots seem to be as well, and I feel quite sure that the consensus view on the Street generally differs from central bank and government messaging.

 

It's highly likely that more money printing coming in the future, and you can already see the government desperately scrambling to fund their spending plans. Yellen's recent proposition of an unrealized gains tax is an example.

Interesting comments from Yellen.  As you know, impossible to predict the future. 

 

Asked when she expects inflation -- which was 5.4% at the end of September -- to get back to the 2% range considered acceptable, Yellen told CNN's Jake Tapper that it would be the middle to second half of 2022.

[cmarshall]

Inflation in the US should not be a cause for worry for American expats.  Just the opposite in fact.  The Social Security COLA for next year is 5.9% while inflation in Thailand for the trailing twelve months has been 1.68%.  That relationship could change, but as long as it persists we come out ahead.  

[EVENKEEL]

6 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Inflation in the US should not be a cause for worry for American expats.  Just the opposite in fact.  The Social Security COLA for next year is 5.9% while inflation in Thailand for the trailing twelve months has been 1.68%.  That relationship could change, but as long as it persists we come out ahead.  

I hear what you're saying and sometimes I feel owning property is like an anchor dragging me down. Expats return home sometimes. I for one likes the idea of having a safety net in the US.

[Jeffr2]

9 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

I hear what you're saying and sometimes I feel owning property is like an anchor dragging me down. Expats return home sometimes. I for one likes the idea of having a safety net in the US.

We've not been back for a decade, but visited this past summer.  The US is a terrible mess right now.  Prices for almost everything are crazy.  Concert tickets are ridiculous, and packed!  Politics has divided brother against brother.  Hotels prices are crazy, and sold out.  Car rental prices, etc, etc, etc.

 

We decided not a good place to live right now.  We'll stay here and see how things pan out.  But for now, it's not near the top of our radar for places to relocate.

[sirineou]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

We've not been back for a decade, but visited this past summer.  The US is a terrible mess right now.  Prices for almost everything are crazy.  Concert tickets are ridiculous, and packed!  Politics has divided brother against brother.  Hotels prices are crazy, and sold out.  Car rental prices, etc, etc, etc.

 

We decided not a good place to live right now.  We'll stay here and see how things pan out.  But for now, it's not near the top of our radar for places to relocate.

The Problem of being out of the US for a long time, and working outside the country or being on a fixed income is that your income does not keep pace with inflation there. Also in the US it makes a big difference what market you earned your living while you worked. and or what market you are visiting. 

So if you earned your living outside those markets, then retired and was outside the country for 10 years, it is easy to be shocked by prices when you visit there. 

As you said the sporting events were crazy expensive (I agree) but the place was packed. That's because these people earn relative to the market. 

That's part of the reason why I advise people to not sell their real-estate back home when they move here (if they can) . because if in the future they ever need to move back they will find themselves priced out of the market. 

But I understand that it is difficult to maintain a property while you are away. I also find myself in that position. One way to get rid of a property and to keep track with the market is to sell the house and invest the proceeds in a safe investment vehicle, but for that you have to be disciplined enough not to touch the investment. Not an easy thing to do. 

[Jeffr2]

21 minutes ago, sirineou said:

The Problem of being out of the US for a long time, and working outside the country or being on a fixed income is that your income does not keep pace with inflation there. Also in the US it makes a big difference what market you earned your living while you worked. and or what market you are visiting. 

So if you earned your living outside those markets, then retired and was outside the country for 10 years, it is easy to be shocked by prices when you visit there. 

As you said the sporting events were crazy expensive (I agree) but the place was packed. That's because these people earn relative to the market. 

That's part of the reason why I advise people to not sell their real-estate back home when they move here (if they can) . because if in the future they ever need to move back they will find themselves priced out of the market. 

But I understand that it is difficult to maintain a property while you are away. I also find myself in that position. One way to get rid of a property and to keep track with the market is to sell the house and invest the proceeds in a safe investment vehicle, but for that you have to be disciplined enough not to touch the investment. Not an easy thing to do. 

A lot of the issues were covid related, and tainted by politics.  Car prices, hotel prices,etc.  Concert prices were impacted because many could only do 50% seating.  So, prices had to rise, and after everything being shutdown, demand is huge. National parks are packed also.  We were at several trailheads that had parking lots 100% full by 9am!!

 

Housing is on a roar!  Stunning to see the increases.  I was in Seattle and Denver.  It's insane.  Reminds me of the bubbles back in the late 90's, late 80's, etc.  I'm a real estate investor, so know the market fairly well.  Made bundles, lost bundles. LOL.

 

Another issue is if your property goes up, so do your taxes.  And, getting help is crazy expensive.  Not like here where you can get a decent worker to come over and clean your gutters for 200B! LOL.  Contractors won't even show up unless it's a multi-day job.

 

As we were away for 10 years, like you say, trying to maintain a property didn't make sense.  We sold up in 2012 in Vegas and put the money in the stock market.  Needless to say, we did fantastic.  We've got a Schwab private advisor looking over the funds.  He does a pretty good job. 

 

We're probably going to leave Thailand next year.  Sell here and move....somewhere.  Not sure yet.  But seriously looking at Mexico.  Been there many times and have spent a lot of time cruising around the country.  So know it fairly well.  But again, it's been over a decade since we've been there.  We'll do a 3 month scouting trip first before renting a place long term.

[HeijoshinCool]

9 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

The workers didn't just disappear. What's wrong with these people. Where are the high school kids who used to take fast food jobs? College students taking part time jobs? Schools are open so parents can't use that excuse.

.

 

When I was in SLC for a few days, I ran into the senior manager of a big Smith's Supermarket. Lived there for a few years and know this guy well. $18.50 for a cashier, or any other job in the store......still can't find people. I asked why.

 

At first he said it was because: hours were part-time to stay within government's rules about avoiding paying health insurance (over 23 hours, employer must pay). Then he mentioned that apartments in SLC now started at $1300/month, way up from last year. All your pay goes just to rent.

 

I said, yeah, but people still have to work. Some are living with others or family. After looking at me for a moment, he leaned in and said, "But if the people are no longer around, then what?"

 

This guy is anything but a conspiracy theorist. He would not comment further other than to add, "The landscape of the US has changed dramatically and is going to continue to change." Then he moved on to more pleasant topics and before we parted ways. He had earlier hinted that the Kroger home office had told him months ago that it was going to become difficult to find help in the near future. I asked how they knew that, he wouldn't give me a straight answer.

 

Take from those cryptic comments what you will. It was a spooky conversation.

 

I did notice in my travels that really small towns did not have employee shortages, especially those in the deep south; Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi.

[bbko]

Federal retirees will see the largest annual increase in benefits payments in 40 years in 2022, as the Social Security Administration announced Wednesday that the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will be 5.9%.

 

Yesss.

[Jeffr2]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/global-shortage-of-workers-whats-going-on-experts-explain.html

 

“We believe there is a more permanent loss of workers driven by a large number of older workers taking early retirement. The thought of returning to the office and the daily commute may seem unpalatable for many people and with surging equity markets having boosted 401k pension plans, early retirement may seem a very attractive option,” they noted, adding that border closures will have curbed immigration and slower birth rates mean fewer young workers are now entering the workforce.

[EVENKEEL]

Upon my return to US I was shocked to see all the homeless encampments in places where 2 yrs prior there were none. I mention this because it's ironic that not enough workers can be found and yet the homeless community is growing.

 

Not sure but I think the Biden Dollars have stopped. I'm concerned that we've already become a society where folks don't feel the need to work because the Gov. will take care of them.

 

But people have money, the roads are packed with shiny new cars, many more guys driving high performance new cars.

 

There's a truck driver shortage, these are jobs paying $70,000/yr and up to 90K.

[KhunLA]

Loving the high inflation in the USA. Got the largest SS COLA (5.9% for 2022) in 20yrs because of it.

Hoping inflation hits 20 % of more in the USA in 2022, so maybe we'll get 6 % for 2023 ????

 

[Jingthing]

16 hours ago, HeijoshinCool said:

.

 

When I was in SLC for a few days, I ran into the senior manager of a big Smith's Supermarket. Lived there for a few years and know this guy well. $18.50 for a cashier, or any other job in the store......still can't find people. I asked why.

 

At first he said it was because: hours were part-time to stay within government's rules about avoiding paying health insurance (over 23 hours, employer must pay). Then he mentioned that apartments in SLC now started at $1300/month, way up from last year. All your pay goes just to rent.

 

I said, yeah, but people still have to work. Some are living with others or family. After looking at me for a moment, he leaned in and said, "But if the people are no longer around, then what?"

 

This guy is anything but a conspiracy theorist. He would not comment further other than to add, "The landscape of the US has changed dramatically and is going to continue to change." Then he moved on to more pleasant topics and before we parted ways. He had earlier hinted that the Kroger home office had told him months ago that it was going to become difficult to find help in the near future. I asked how they knew that, he wouldn't give me a straight answer.

 

Take from those cryptic comments what you will. It was a spooky conversation.

 

I did notice in my travels that really small towns did not have employee shortages, especially those in the deep south; Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi.

I have no idea with what you're implying by the people are no longer there comment. 

[Jingthing]

Yes it seems obvious that overall the US is in a bad place but as always there are many people winning in these conditions. I had two immigrant grandfathers that lived through the great depression. One was crushed to an early death by it (reduced to being a Yankee carpetbagger in the deep south) and the other was in the right kind of business (connections to fresh farm produce to sell in a city) to get through it. Everyone wants delicious tomatoes. 

Expats may often be winners in the current scenario but they will have to manage to remain expats. Many of us are still tied to back home in ways that could potentially harm us. A country where different tribes hate each other so extremely as enemies has a questionable future. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/montana-extreme-trump/2021/10/22/0f82afbc-0037-11ec-a664-4f6de3e17ff0_story.html

 

Montanans used to live and let live. Today bitter confrontations dim Big Sky Country.

Edited October 26, 2021 by Jingthing

[cmarshall]

19 hours ago, sirineou said:

The Problem of being out of the US for a long time, and working outside the country or being on a fixed income is that your income does not keep pace with inflation there. Also in the US it makes a big difference what market you earned your living while you worked. and or what market you are visiting. 

So if you earned your living outside those markets, then retired and was outside the country for 10 years, it is easy to be shocked by prices when you visit there. 

As you said the sporting events were crazy expensive (I agree) but the place was packed. That's because these people earn relative to the market. 

That's part of the reason why I advise people to not sell their real-estate back home when they move here (if they can) . because if in the future they ever need to move back they will find themselves priced out of the market. 

But I understand that it is difficult to maintain a property while you are away. I also find myself in that position. One way to get rid of a property and to keep track with the market is to sell the house and invest the proceeds in a safe investment vehicle, but for that you have to be disciplined enough not to touch the investment. Not an easy thing to do. 

Realistically, expatting in retirement was always likely to be a one-way ticket.  It's true that when I have visited back in the States prices seem to have grown excessively, but that would have been the case had I remained there in retirement since my income would have been the same.  

 

Among the disadvantages of continuing to own property in the US is that for some states property together with other factors may be enough to maintain tax domicile in that state.  

[sirineou]

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Realistically, expatting in retirement was always likely to be a one-way ticket.  It's true that when I have visited back in the States prices seem to have grown excessively, but that would have been the case had I remained there in retirement since my income would have been the same.  

 

Among the disadvantages of continuing to own property in the US is that for some states property together with other factors may be enough to maintain tax domicile in that state.  

Unfortunately, Thailand is not stable enough to make such a bet. I would not mind making it if they grandfathered people into the retirement  laws they signed in when they made a decision to retire here.  But that's not the case, you can make a rational decision to retire here base on the requirements at the time, and two years later they can arbitrarily change those requirements.  

Further more private insurance does not cover pre-existing conditions, and and becomes prohibitively expansive as you get older, or even entirely not available, and since there is no mechanism for buying into the Thai national health care system , you could be screwed if you did not have a mechanism for going back where your insurance is if the time comes. 

What you say is true about taxes and other difficulties of maintaining a property back home while you are not there, that's why I am considering selling the property and parking the proceeds on a relatively safe investment vehicle. But for that you have to be disciplined enough not to spend it. 

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by sirineou

[Jeffr2]

11 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

Upon my return to US I was shocked to see all the homeless encampments in places where 2 yrs prior there were none. I mention this because it's ironic that not enough workers can be found and yet the homeless community is growing.

 

Not sure but I think the Biden Dollars have stopped. I'm concerned that we've already become a society where folks don't feel the need to work because the Gov. will take care of them.

 

But people have money, the roads are packed with shiny new cars, many more guys driving high performance new cars.

 

There's a truck driver shortage, these are jobs paying $70,000/yr and up to 90K.

Yeah, in Seattle, it was bizarre.  Homeless camps everywhere.  From what I understand, they are happier living in a tent and saving what they'd spend on rent.  Which are crazy insane now.  The camp I passed was huge, most had cars, and many had jobs.  The tents were actually quite nice! LOL

 

Crazy times in the US.  Hard to wrap your head around it.

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Yeah, in Seattle, it was bizarre.  Homeless camps everywhere.  From what I understand, they are happier living in a tent and saving what they'd spend on rent.  Which are crazy insane now.  The camp I passed was huge, most had cars, and many had jobs.  The tents were actually quite nice! LOL

 

Crazy times in the US.  Hard to wrap your head around it.

Indeed. 

 

There really isn't any precedent in the U.S. for this current specific mix of very serious problems so it's hard to know how to react to it.

 

Pandemic  Not over.

 

Mass resistance to pandemic mitigation measures largely based on irrational political cultural positioning.

 

Roaring inflation particularly in housing.

 

Masses of people unwilling to be near slave labor in jobs that don't even pay rent

 

Internal tribal/cultural hatred and divisions at civil war levels 

 

Threat to democracy from one of two major parties taken over by a pro autocratic demagogue cult of personality populist leader

 

The rapid rise of China now being a bully and threat of war related to Taiwan 

 

Unbridled Putin in Russia leading a successful movement to challenge the justifications behind western  liberal democracy ironically ideologically allied with the forementioned American demagogue.

 

The middle east same caca storm as ever.

 

Degradation of previously won progressive gains such as abortion rights, LGBT civil rights, worker unionization rights, etc.

 

Last but not least -- man made climate change 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Jingthing

[Jeffr2]

14 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Indeed. 

 

There really isn't any precedent in the U.S. for this current specific mix of very serious problems so it's hard to know how to react to it.

 

Pandemic  Not over.

 

Mass resistance to pandemic mitigation measures largely based on irrational political cultural positioning.

 

Roaring inflation particularly in housing.

 

Masses of people unwilling to be near slave labor in jobs that don't even pay rent

 

Internal tribal/cultural hatred and divisions at civil war levels 

 

Threat to democracy from one of two major parties taken over by a pro autocratic demagogue cult of personality populist leader

 

The rapid rise of China now being a bully and threat of war related to Taiwan 

 

Unbridled Putin in Russia leading a successful movement to challenge the justifications behind western  liberal democracy ironically ideologically allied with the forementioned American demagogue.

 

The middle east same caca storm as ever.

 

Degradation of previously won progressive gains such as abortion rights, LGBT civil rights, worker unionization rights, etc.

 

Last but not least -- man made climate change 

We're living in crazy, crazy times.  My friend in Seattle works for Amazon. Makes over $18 an hour and can barely survive.  The work conditions suck.  He might become the next homeless person in that camp!  He's about to pack it in.  Seriously.

[EVENKEEL]

9 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

We're living in crazy, crazy times.  My friend in Seattle works for Amazon. Makes over $18 an hour and can barely survive.  The work conditions suck.  He might become the next homeless person in that camp!  He's about to pack it in.  Seriously.

14 yrs ago I lived in Seattle while attending a Maritime School. I paid $1200./mo for a tiny studio 2 blocks from Space Needle. High rent is nothing new. It's always been hard for the bottom rung wage earners so IMO it doesn't explain why employers can't find workers. You have to increase your skill set to be worth the higher wages.