The future is electric: your questions about EVs answered

[John Drake]

On 11/1/2021 at 6:15 AM, sirineou said:

If you spend 60k a year in fuel , it would Take you more than 10 years to recover the extra 600k. 

And for that you would have to put up with limited range, and charging time and issues. 

How much life would the vehicle have left after 10 years?

Where would EV battery technology be in 10 years? 

Most of the old guys yakking about this will be dead before then.

[KhunLA]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

Most of the old guys yakking about this will be dead before then.

I'll spend 50k a year on petrol, at todays rate, and that E85.  MG EP (8yr battery warranty) would cast 300k have more than what I have now.  So 6 yrs, IF no price increase.  Along with virtually no maintenance, which is at least 5k a year for just oil & filter changes (5 every 2yrs/50k kms), not counting tune-ups, belts, timing belt replacements. 

 

Powered by solar, as the house will be, with ROI probably at the 5 yr mark.  Win win for me & solar, over PEA & ICE.  No reason for most folks not to do something similar.  If not for the environment, then for your wallet.

 

Actually bought an E-scooter for my everyday, 2X out with the dog routine, park AM, surf PM.  So the SUV will sit idle until heavy shopping or out & abouts now.

Edited November 3, 2021 by KhunLA

[John Drake]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

I'll spend 50k a year on petrol, at todays rate, and that E85.  MG EP (8yr battery warranty) would cast 300k have more than what I have now.  So 6 yrs, IF no price increase.  Along with virtually no maintenance, which is at least 5k a year for just oil & filter changes (5 every 2yrs/50k kms), not counting tune-ups, belts, timing belt replacements. 

 

Powered by solar, as the house will be, with ROI probably at the 5 yr mark.  Win win for me & solar, over PEA & ICE.  No reason for most folks not to do something similar.  If not for the environment, then for your wallet.

 

Actually bought an E-scooter for my everyday, 2X out with the dog routine, park AM, surf PM.  So the SUV will sit idle until heavy shopping or out & abouts now.

I wouldn't know. I bike, walk, or use public transportation. I probably spent less than 10,000 baht last year on transportation expenses. Doubt that I contributed much to the big bad carbon footprint either.

[RafPinto]

On 11/2/2021 at 3:17 PM, CLW said:

If, as stated in the full news article, the import tax for EVs from China is 0%, I am wondering why there are no more EV brands from China entering the Thai market. Also Tesla could export his cars from China to Thailand and finally build a market presence here...

And then it surprises me that the price of the GWM Ora Good Cat in Thailand is almost double to what they are charging in China???

What is the reason? Greed???

The Ora is a copy of the Beetle . At least from the front.

[KhunLA]

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

I'll spend 50k a year on petrol, at todays rate, and that E85.  MG EP (8yr battery warranty) would cast 300k have more than what I have now.  So 6 yrs, IF no price increase.  Along with virtually no maintenance, which is at least 5k a year for just oil & filter changes (5 every 2yrs/50k kms), not counting tune-ups, belts, timing belt replacements. 

 

Powered by solar, as the house will be, with ROI probably at the 5 yr mark.  Win win for me & solar, over PEA & ICE.  No reason for most folks not to do something similar.  If not for the environment, then for your wallet.

 

Actually bought an E-scooter for my everyday, 2X out with the dog routine, park AM, surf PM.  So the SUV will sit idle until heavy shopping or out & abouts now.

I don't know where you come up with these numbers.

The ICE MG ZS price range is 689,000-799,000

The MG ZS EV price is 1,190.000

if we go  by the middle of the range, the price difference between the two is 451,000     but even if we were to compare the most expensive ICE MG zs  the price difference is 391,000

So not 300K difference.

Your best case scenario is 391K your middle range (more fair comparison) is 451K and your worst case scenario is 501 K 

at the most fair comparison (middle range ice MGzs) at 50k baht of fuel per year it will take you a little over 9 years (9.2 years) to recover the premium. in fuel 

Then you  say will depend on your solar cells for refueling.  Are you going to take your solar cells with you everywhere you go, or are you going to drive around your house?

[Sir Dude]

Build an economy and world around hydrogen, and use renewables as the electricity source to power the separation process (like Japan is doing). It is by far the most sensible option to reach zero neutral emissions. 

[zzaa09]

3 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

Build an economy and world around hydrogen, and use renewables as the electricity source to power the separation process (like Japan is doing). It is by far the most sensible option to reach zero neutral emissions. 

An economy that benefits whom?

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

Your sort of missing my point - its all BS. 

 

Things can be dome, they even say they will but they don't and by they, I don't just mean Thailand.  The economic cost is always put above the environmental cost.  Just using the example of SF6 gas - there's always been an alternative, an alternative that uses no harmful gases but it costs more. 'The problem is beginning to be addressed' - why was it allowed to happen in the first place? It was known. Just BS!

 

There was a guy on the radio the other day who'd quit his job as the manager of a recycling plant.  He revealed that less than 10% of the plastics we dutifully crush and put in our recycling bins actually get recycled.  He'd been 'directed' to fudge the paperwork to make things lokk different.  More BS.!

 

The day the powers that be stop the BS, get serious about climate change will come, it will have to but I fear it will be far too late.  Then their beloved economies will totally collapse - there's not much point in making a profit if your country's on fire.

 

The one subject that hardly ever gets an airing when climate change gets discussed and in my opinion, its the main reason any of this is happening - population.  The planet cannot support the amount of people on it already (7.9 billion) - we take out more than we put in and that can never work. The forecast is for the world's population to be close to 10 billion by 2050! 2 billion more mouths to feed. 2 billion more consumers! We care not about the habitats of wildlife - if we need more housing, more roads, we build them. Nature always bites back and it will win. Our planet had a finely balanced eco-system and we've broken it.  We are supposed to be the intelligent species - yet we wreck our home through greed.

 

Some countries are only half a meter away from being flooded. Bangkok is only about 1m above seal level I believe.

Whether or not I'm missing your point, the evidence and reasoning you provided to support it were highly defective. Get better evidence.

[KhunLA]

4 hours ago, sirineou said:

I don't know where you come up with these numbers.

The ICE MG ZS price range is 689,000-799,000

The MG ZS EV price is 1,190.000

if we go  by the middle of the range, the price difference between the two is 451,000     but even if we were to compare the most expensive ICE MG zs  the price difference is 391,000

So not 300K difference.

Your best case scenario is 391K your middle range (more fair comparison) is 451K and your worst case scenario is 501 K 

at the most fair comparison (middle range ice MGzs) at 50k baht of fuel per year it will take you a little over 9 years (9.2 years) to recover the premium. in fuel 

Then you  say will depend on your solar cells for refueling.  Are you going to take your solar cells with you everywhere you go, or are you going to drive around your house?

Re-read my reply.  I based my #s on the MG EP, which is 300k more than the ZS.  200k if using top end ZS model vs he EP.

From Sept 2020 to Sept 2021, we put 25k kms on the car, and then I figured the difference (out of curiosity) the fuel price difference & cost per increase for the year 2021 so far.

 

At Jan 2020 price it was 39+k & 49+k baht at S/2021's price to fuel 25k kms.  Sticking with that number, 50k X 6 = 3yr ROI, for fuel alone.

 

The rest is self explanatory.

Edited November 3, 2021 by KhunLA

[KhaoYai]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Whether or not I'm missing your point, the evidence and reasoning you provided to support it were highly defective. Get better evidence.

What is defective? Are you aware that 'switchgear' that employs SF6 shielding is still being installed to this day?  Did you see the Sky News report regarding oil companies in the USA flouting the laws on methane emissions?  The woman that has been carrying out investigations in to those emissions has been reporting them for years and still nothing's been done.

 

 

You talk about what Thailand plans to do and you call my evidence defective?  How many times have you seen Thailand do anything it says it is planning to do?  How about the raft of road safety measures they announce after every Songkran or major accident - have any been put in place?

 

I find it unbelievable that you call hard evidence 'defective' and offer your version based on things that could or should happen?  Are you aware of the forecasts for the world's population - almost 2 billion more people by 2050?  We need every scrap of farmalnd we can get - especially when so much is being lost every year due to soil erosion caused by climate change and farming methods.

 

There's nothing defective in what I wrote - I tend to live in the real world rather than the hypothetical one.

 

Its a fact that we are going to have a problem putting the infrastructure in place to charge electric vehilcles.

 

Its a fact that we will need to generate more electricity to supply those charging points.

 

Its a fact that SF6 gas is currently adding the equivalent of 1.3 million cars to our roads in term of the gas leakage.

 

Its a fact that an alternative type of switchgear has been available for most applications for years that doesn't use SF6 but its more expensive so wasn't and isn't being used in the great majority of cases. Higher voltage switchgear will still need SF6 so its reasonable to think it will still leak. Should we just accept that or should we reduce the demand for electricity. How can that be achieved when there are more and more electric cars on the road?

 

What's defective?

 

I firmly believe that our governments know about all these problems but do nothing about them.  Boris Johnson is forever extolling the great leaps forward the UK has made in terms of alternative energy production but he forgets to mention the SF6 problem that he could so easily legislate against - if he truly has the will.

 

Have you seen the latest document agreed at Cop 26 - the agreement to stop deforestation by 2030?  It looks remarkably similar to the one that was agreed in 2014 that said deforestation would end by 2020 - its actually increased!

 

I sincerely want our 'great leaders' to actually do something about climate change and stop their political BS!  For all the changes they've made so far we are emitting MORE Co2 and methane that ever - fact!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59016075

 

What 'better evidence' do I need?

 

Its too late to live in theory land we need real action. Agrovoltaics need to be more than promising - they need to be ready now and more importantly, they need to be put in place which involves the will to do so! Its one area I remain unconvinced on though. There are studies that show they are not as effective as you claim and they also need a lot of steel framework to support them at a height where they gain a reasonable amount of light without shading the plants below too much.

 

Overall our governments need to place more emphasis on environmental costs rather than financial.

Edited November 3, 2021 by KhaoYai

[jacko45k]

17 hours ago, John Drake said:

Most of the old guys yakking about this will be dead before then.

I think I got one more diesel truck in me first then.....

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

What is defective? Are you aware that 'switchgear' that employs SF6 shielding is still being installed to this day?  Did you see the Sky News report regarding oil companies in the USA flouting the laws on methane emissions?  The woman that has been carrying out investigations in to those emissions has been reporting them for years and still nothing's been done.

 

 

You talk about what Thailand plans to do and you call my evidence defective?  How many times have you seen Thailand do anything it says it is planning to do?  How about the raft of road safety measures they announce after every Songkran or major accident - have any been put in place?

 

I find it unbelievable that you call hard evidence 'defective' and offer your version based on things that could or should happen?  Are you aware of the forecasts for the world's population - almost 2 billion more people by 2050?  We need every scrap of farmalnd we can get - especially when so much is being lost every year due to soil erosion caused by climate change and farming methods.

 

There's nothing defective in what I wrote - I tend to live in the real world rather than the hypothetical one.

 

Its a fact that we are going to have a problem putting the infrastructure in place to charge electric vehilcles.

 

Its a fact that we will need to generate more electricity to supply those charging points.

 

Its a fact that SF6 gas is currently adding the equivalent of 1.3 million cars to our roads in term of the gas leakage.

 

Its a fact that an alternative type of switchgear has been available for most applications for years that doesn't use SF6 but its more expensive so wasn't and isn't being used in the great majority of cases. Higher voltage switchgear will still need SF6 so its reasonable to think it will still leak. Should we just accept that or should we reduce the demand for electricity. How can that be achieved when there are more and more electric cars on the road?

 

What's defective?

 

I firmly believe that our governments know about all these problems but do nothing about them.  Boris Johnson is forever extolling the great leaps forward the UK has made in terms of alternative energy production but he forgets to mention the SF6 problem that he could so easily legislate against - if he truly has the will.

 

Have you seen the latest document agreed at Cop 26 - the agreement to stop deforestation by 2030?  It looks remarkably similar to the one that was agreed in 2014 that said deforestation would end by 2020 - its actually increased!

 

I sincerely want our 'great leaders' to actually do something about climate change and stop their political BS!  For all the changes they've made so far we are emitting MORE Co2 and methane that ever - fact!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59016075

 

What 'better evidence' do I need?

 

Its too late to live in theory land we need real action. Agrovoltaics need to be more than promising - they need to be ready now and more importantly, they need to be put in place which involves the will to do so! Its one area I remain unconvinced on though. There are studies that show they are not as effective as you claim and they also need a lot of steel framework to support them at a height where they gain a reasonable amount of light without shading the plants below too much.

 

Overall our governments need to place more emphasis on environmental costs rather than financial.

Please, I went into some detail to refute your comments about the effect of solar installations on agriculture. And your argument that Thailand isn't ready now doesn't acknowledge the fact that in the past societies adjusted to emerging technologies. Like ICE vehicles for instance.

As for the SF6 issue,  it is now being acknowledged and things are starting to be done about it. As the article says, it's more a matter of sluggishness and laziness on the part of power providers.  That's how these things work. Slow at first. Then it speeds up.There's apparently no technological reason why it can't be replaced.

 

[KhaoYai]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

Please, I went into some detail to refute your comments about the effect of solar installations on agriculture. And your argument that Thailand isn't ready now doesn't acknowledge the fact that in the past societies adjusted to emerging technologies. Like ICE vehicles for instance.

As for the SF6 issue,  it is now being acknowledged and things are starting to be done about it. As the article says, it's more a matter of sluggishness and laziness on the part of power providers.  That's how these things work. Slow at first. Then it speeds up.There's apparently no technological reason why it can't be replaced.

 

You rely on possibilities and what can be done and I agree with you on some of those.  However, what I'm trying to get across is that despite the availability of technologies that could solve some of our problems, our politicians don't actually put them in to practice.  Some of these 'technologies' as with SF6 have created problems of their own because they've been put in place on the cheap. Our leaders talk the talk but don't walk the walk.  Why is nothing being done about the illegal methane emissions in Texas in the story I posted for example? 

 

Putting this into context - Electric Vehicles will only work if they are affordable, the infrastructure needed to support them is in place and the correct technology is employed.  In my opinion, the technologies being put in place and the way most countries are introducing them simply won't work.

 

Votes appear to be more important than righting the wrongs that have been done. Rectification comes at a cost, a financial and a political cost.  Some of what needs to be done will not be popular but it must be done. Who has the will to,actually do it?They will carry on like this until its too late - its one of the downsides of democracy. Politicians pay more attention to votes today rather than life tomorrow.

 

Every time there are conferences like Cop 26, goals are set and promises are made - how many of them have even been implemented, let alone achieved?

 

Perhaps the best documentary I've ever seen about climate change, one that explains exactly where we are, what's going to happen - indeed what's already happening, what needs to be done and by when, is Sir David Attenborough's Breaking Boundaries.  A clear explanation of the inter-connections between climate change and bio-diversity, noting of the 'tipping points' that if reached, will mean irreversible damage to this planet.

Edited November 4, 2021 by KhaoYai

[edwinchester]

21 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

Build an economy and world around hydrogen, and use renewables as the electricity source to power the separation process (like Japan is doing). It is by far the most sensible option to reach zero neutral emissions. 

British company, ITM, is doing just that too.

[farmerjo]

How many solar panels would it take to make a solar panel.

[PuaSai]

On 11/1/2021 at 11:23 AM, placeholder said:

You know, when the power goes out, gasoline/petrol doesn't get pumped either, does it? (Unless you're living in the sticks where there's a pump inserted into a barrel containing fuel.) Has that inconvenient fact had much of an impact on transport?

Yeah I do know that.  During an emergency I'd rather be able to syphon fuel from another vehicle then being stuck with a dead battery.  Ever need a flash light and it dies on you?  If you don't have more batteries, it's useless because you have no power.

[Sametboy2019]

30 minutes ago, PuaSai said:

Yeah I do know that.  During an emergency I'd rather be able to syphon fuel from another vehicle then being stuck with a dead battery.  Ever need a flash light and it dies on you?  If you don't have more batteries, it's useless because you have no power.

This is a opinion on present technology. If petrol becomes obselete then this no longer pertinent

[PuaSai]

17 hours ago, Sametboy2019 said:

This is a opinion on present technology. If petrol becomes obselete then this no longer pertinent

I don't see petrol becoming obsolete.  Too many rich western politicians and elitists are invested in this sector, but the 'subjects' of these countries and others will be forced to use EVs  as a matter of controlling movement.  What's 'good' for them is not 'good' for the lower, less fortunate, tiers of society.

[KhunLA]

Petrol / ICE vehicles will be around at least till the end of this century.

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, PuaSai said:

I don't see petrol becoming obsolete.  Too many rich western politicians and elitists are invested in this sector, but the 'subjects' of these countries and others will be forced to use EVs  as a matter of controlling movement.  What's 'good' for them is not 'good' for the lower, less fortunate, tiers of society.

You sure about that?

Texas targets Wall Street in fight over ESG investing

Texas is drawing battle lines in a fight against investors and companies turning their backs on fossil fuels.

Gov. Greg Abbott signed a bill into law Monday banning state investments in businesses that cut ties with the oil and gas industry. The underlying message, according to one of the most powerful energy regulators in the state, is simple: Boycott Texas, and we'll boycott you.

https://www.pionline.com/legislation/texas-targets-wall-street-fight-over-esg-investing

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Petrol / ICE vehicles will be around at least till the end of this century.

As museum pieces? What percentage of all vehicles? Can you be more specific?

[KhunLA]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

As museum pieces? What percentage of all vehicles? Can you be more specific?

You have to consider, some countries aren't even mandating EV be the dominant vehicles by a certain date.  Other hoping for 2035, 2050, and considering cars can easily last 20-30-40 years.   Trucking industry is not going to go electric that fast, unless some really new and better, and much cheaper tech is available.

 

Then large metros, need a better charging infrastructure.  And a way to power it.  Parking is at a premium, let along parking with charging stations available.

 

It's fine now, in Thailand, few on road and plenty of charging station.  Now, Thailand has a hard problem keep the lights & ACs on.   But if and when there's 10's of millions EVs out there, add them to the grid, could be an issue.  EVs certainly aren't in most peoples budget in 3rd world (Thailand) countries.

 

Do you really think big oil, and the car manufacturers are going to give up their cash cows that fast?

Edited November 5, 2021 by KhunLA

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, KhunLA said:

You have to consider, some countries aren't even mandating EV be the dominant vehicles by a certain date.  Other hoping for 2035, 2050, and considering cars can easily last 20-30-40 years.   Trucking industry is not going to go electric that fast, unless some really new and better, and much cheaper tech is available.

 

Then large metros, need a better charging infrastructure.  And a way to power it.  Parking is at a premium, let along parking with charging stations available.

 

It's fine now, in Thailand, few on road and plenty of charging station.  Now, Thailand has a hard problem keep the lights & ACs on.   But if and when there's 10's of millions EVs out there, add them to the grid, could be an issue.  EVs certainly aren't in most peoples budget in 3rd world (Thailand) countries.

 

Do you really think big oil, and the car manufacturers are going to give up their cash cows that fast?

When batteries reach a cost of $100 per kwh storage capacity, that's when cost of an EV is projected to be the same as that of a ICE vehicle. It's almost there now. I don't think it's going to take almost a century to beat that number. Nor to install power to virtuallly everywhere that needs it.

[KhunLA]

Let's hope

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, KhunLA said:

You have to consider, some countries aren't even mandating EV be the dominant vehicles by a certain date.  Other hoping for 2035, 2050, and considering cars can easily last 20-30-40 years.   Trucking industry is not going to go electric that fast, unless some really new and better, and much cheaper tech is available.

 

Then large metros, need a better charging infrastructure.  And a way to power it.  Parking is at a premium, let along parking with charging stations available.

 

It's fine now, in Thailand, few on road and plenty of charging station.  Now, Thailand has a hard problem keep the lights & ACs on.   But if and when there's 10's of millions EVs out there, add them to the grid, could be an issue.  EVs certainly aren't in most peoples budget in 3rd world (Thailand) countries.

 

Do you really think big oil, and the car manufacturers are going to give up their cash cows that fast?

Why do you think mandates are necessary to get people to buy EVs. More to the point, even if they help now, you think that they're going to be necessary for the next, say 60 years? As I've pointed out, EVs become cost competitive with ICE vehicles when the cost per KWH of storage is less than $100 per hour. 

If there was a flood of demand for EVs projected for Thailand, you'd have a better point. As it is, the kind of oint you make could just as easily been invoked when automobiles were still new.

Do you really think that demand won't drive automakers to be competitive in the auto market. And if that means people want EVs, then that's what they're going to have to sell.

[KhunLA]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

Why do you think mandates are necessary to get people to buy EVs. More to the point, even if they help now, you think that they're going to be necessary for the next, say 60 years? As I've pointed out, EVs become cost competitive with ICE vehicles when the cost per KWH of storage is less than $100 per hour. 

If there was a flood of demand for EVs projected for Thailand, you'd have a better point. As it is, the kind of oint you make could just as easily been invoked when automobiles were still new.

Do you really think that demand won't drive automakers to be competitive in the auto market. And if that means people want EVs, then that's what they're going to have to sell.

I think only ignorance, myself included, kept me, and now most people away from EVs.  Had I done a bit more research, and know the MG EP was coming out, or available, I may have probably would have gotten that instead of the ZS, if I fit through the door comfortably.  Availability of home;  condo / apartment charging points is an issue now.  People like convenience, and in metros like Krung Thep, I'm not seeing it.  Home charging, house / townhouse, not a problem

 

Really like the specs of the EP, though 50 / 50 on a final decision now.  Like the hp, size, though don't need either.  Really liking the ZS, it is comfy, and if trading in (selling), stepping up to the EP is going to cost about 400k.  Not sure I want to do that.  It will pay for itself in the long run, but the ZS is only 1 yr old, since MGs are going up in price, not a big hit now, since better known, won't lose much if holding another yr or 2, unless it turns to c r a p ????

 

Way thing are moving so fast, new tech, and the gov't might even throw in some incentive down the line, think we'll hold off.

 

Anyone in the market for a new car, not just entry to own, then 1 mill for EP is damn good price.  People spend the same or more for less.  Especially if buying an import.  Entry level 600k mark +/-, made in Thailand, leaves a bit to be desired.  Had 3, good dependable transport, but I wouldn't buy another.

 

Mandates, not sure about them, needed or will actually be enforced when the time comes.  Supply & demand will dictate things faster than mandates, and the charging station network / grid allocation for home charging & ports will also dictate how fast things happen.