Omicron may become dominant variant with its high transmissibility – Dr. Yong Poovorawan

[jacko45k]

On 12/4/2021 at 1:46 PM, placnx said:

BBC today was saying that there were a lot of children hospitalized, in South Africa I believe. Presumably they were not vaccinated.

Very likely since they have not done many adults either. 

[Bkk Brian]

36 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

I find if funny that ppl jump on he's a ex nurse ingnoring that he has a degree in science, biology and a master's in health science along with research degree Dr of philosophy...

 

There's no misinformation here when its looking bad he tells you and most importantly shows you current science/data as to why and when it looks good he does the same. 

I prefer to go to the source of data when possible and in this particular video of his it comes from this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1467172016918773775

 

With the main study being here:

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

 

Where if you read it the author also says: 

"Why can't we assume this data shows fewer people die due to the #OmicronVariant (vs. previous variants)? The data for this study = only for the 1st 2 wks of the outbreak. People take time to fall ill/die. It can take longer than 2 wks. Some patients may therefore still die."

 

However I understand that some prefer this condensed down on a youtube channel

Edited December 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Danderman123]

It’s still far too early to make any conclusions about the severity of Omicron.

 

My guess is that patients already in hospitals are being infected by the new virus, which screws up the statistics.

[Jeffr2]

Edited December 6, 2021 by Jeffr2

[Bkk Brian]

One critical thing to note at this stage — as highlighted in the Tshwane report — is the markedly different age profiles of the two waves: Over first two weeks of each wave, Omicron cases and hospitalisations skew *much* younger. That alone would be expected to reduce ICU share.

 

So what does this all mean? First up, does it mean Omicron is "more mild" than previous variants? Well, far more likely it means that people who’ve been vaccinated or infected are showing solid protection against severe disease. And this should not be a surprise!

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1467270479912357889

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Omicron's rapid growth in the UK, with 68% of its population vaccinated, adds further concern beyond what we're seeing in South Africa

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1467519868224245765

 

[Cherrytreeview]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

I think this guy does a pretty good job sorting through stuff, but he is a retired nursing teacher.  Not a virologist currently engaged in research of covid.

Spot on.

This guy is a virologist and is highlighting how a more transmissible virus but less deadly could actually be a worse outcome.

 

Pressure on health care systems is all people need to focus on because it is the only thing global governments will.

Better to look to the experts not a retired nurse sitting in his spare room.

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by Cherrytreeview
Edit

[Macrohistory]

Here's another critical graph from South Africa that the Omicron-severity-deniers might want to consult.  Bottom line is that it's way, way too early to say.

 

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

 

 

 

[Jeffr2]

Whether it's milder or not is yet to be determined.  But it is more transmissible.  So...more cases equal more hospitalizations.  More hospitalizations equal more in ICU.  More in ICU equal more deaths.  No way to avoid this.  Except with vaccines and the other recommended safety procedures.

[jacko45k]

7 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Whether it's milder or not is yet to be determined.  But it is more transmissible.  So...more cases equal more hospitalizations.  More hospitalizations equal more in ICU.  More in ICU equal more deaths.  No way to avoid this.  Except with vaccines and the other recommended safety procedures.

I just watched a video that analyzed this and was coming up with similar conclusions but not the 'more deaths'... also the hospital situation as being more manageable as less severe illness, and that too was dependent on the percentage who were fully vaccinated in the population. Can't post a link here but look for yesterdays posting on Youtube by Dr John Campbell.

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, jacko45k said:

I just watched a video that analyzed this and was coming up with similar conclusions but not the 'more deaths'... also the hospital situation as being more manageable as less severe illness, and that too was dependent on the percentage who were fully vaccinated in the population. Can't post a link here but look for yesterdays posting on Youtube by Dr John Campbell.

I think he's OK, but definitely not an expert on this.  He's not even a Doctor.  Just a Phd.  But I do like his videos.  I'll get my detailed info from other sources.

[Blumpie]

22 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I just watched a video that analyzed this and was coming up with similar conclusions but not the 'more deaths'... also the hospital situation as being more manageable as less severe illness, and that too was dependent on the percentage who were fully vaccinated in the population. Can't post a link here but look for yesterdays posting on Youtube by Dr John Campbell.

What I"ve gotten online about what is going on is "we still don't know but so far the data looks very promising".  And "things could change".  So far the trajectory by every expert that I"ve seen states that it is good so far.  And they've all said things can change.  

Patience... I keep telling myself that anyways. ????  

[metisdead]

A post with a video from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed as well as the related replies to that post:

 

18) Social Media content is acceptable in most social forums. However, in factual areas such as news, current affairs and health topics, it cannot be used unless it is from a credible news media source or government agency, and must include a weblink to the original source.

 

Some inflammatory posts and replies have been removed. 

[Danderman123]

I am still having problems reconciling “it’s mild” with “ICUs are filling up”.

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am still having problems reconciling “it’s mild” with “ICUs are filling up”.

Again, time will tell to early too say, what I do not like to see is people claiming its milder because of just a few early indications. The vid that was posted and quite rightly taken down was gleeful in its narrative that this is a welcome variant that can induce rapid herd immunity, a very dangerous stance to take when evidence of that is not there yet.

[Jeffr2]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am still having problems reconciling “it’s mild” with “ICUs are filling up”.

Who said it was mild?

[Kadilo]

Good early signs. 
 

Less need for oxygen with shorter  stays in hospital. 

No spike in deaths seen even as cases increase. 

Still  early doors to read too much for Omicron but early signs look promising and a good read

for those interested in the early data. 

 

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

Edited December 6, 2021 by Kadilo

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Kadilo said:

Good early signs. 
 

Less need for oxygen with shorter  stays in hospital. 

No spike in deaths seen even as cases increase. 

Still  early doors to read too much for Omicron but early signs look promising. 

 

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

Thats been linked to already a few times on this thread but since your repeating it:

 

"It is essential to recognize that the patient information presented here only represents the first two weeks of the Omicron wave in Tshwane. The clinical profile of admitted patients could change significantly over the next two weeks, by which time we can draw conclusions about the severity of disease with greater precision."

 

"we have seen a sharp rise in admissions at the Steve Biko Academic and Tshwane District Hospitals (SBAH/TDH) Complex with 166 new admissions between 14 and 29 November 2021."

[Saanim]

Reading somewhere that there has not been one death case worldwide by Omicron, so far. True?  

[Kadilo]

3 minutes ago, Saanim said:

Reading somewhere that there has not been one death case worldwide by Omicron, so far. True?  

True, but hard to believe going by the hysteria you can read. Can you imagine what it will be like if a person dies of it. 
 

Edited December 6, 2021 by Kadilo

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, Saanim said:

Reading somewhere that there has not been one death case worldwide by Omicron, so far. True?  

Nobody knows.  And deaths lag by several weeks of hospitalization.  Which is just happening now.  True.

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

True, but hard to believe going by the hysteria you can read. Can you imagine what it will be like if a person dies of it. 
 

Yes, quite a few here will look foolish.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Saanim said:

Reading somewhere that there has not been one death case worldwide by Omicron, so far. True?  

They are obviously dying of a mysterious variant in South Africa that has not been sequenced yet then. I wonder which it could be?

Edited December 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Sanookmike]

15 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

I prefer to go to the source of data when possible and in this particular video of his it comes from this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1467172016918773775

 

With the main study being here:

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

 

Where if you read it the author also says: 

"Why can't we assume this data shows fewer people die due to the #OmicronVariant (vs. previous variants)? The data for this study = only for the 1st 2 wks of the outbreak. People take time to fall ill/die. It can take longer than 2 wks. Some patients may therefore still die."

 

However I understand that some prefer this condensed down on a youtube channel

Haha no it doesn't come from a Twitter thread... and ppl have accused me of spreading misinformation. He goes through the main study that you linked.. and also linked to it in the description of the video????. As with all of his videos he goes through the main studies with you. Anyone can just go check the video we are talking about and see your wrong... Made your self look a bit silly

 

Why lie??

 

He also states it's a snapshot profile as it says in the study..

 

However I understand that you prob didn't watch it all before making your comment.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by Sanookmike

[Sanookmike]

12 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Yes, quite a few here will look foolish.

Not at all no answer is science is infinite.. I would like to stress that things look good now according to the data available, that could sill change as more data comes in. 

 

I feel that by just being rational I've been put into the anti Vax/virus denier camp.. when I'm just doing what is advised and following the science. 

 

Some on here are just sharing the same charts and having a "big number bad" mentally with out any context as to where they fit in current larger picture.

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

Not at all no answer is science is infinite.. I would like to stress that things look good now according to the data available, that could sill change as more data comes in. 

 

I feel that by just being rational I've been put into the anti Vax/virus denier camp.. when I'm just doing what is advised and following the science. 

 

Some on here are just sharing the same charts and having a "big number bad" mentally with out any context as to where they fit in current larger picture.

Even if omicron is comparatively mild the way it affects young kids is going to bounce back hard on the anti vax crusaders.

[Sanookmike]

25 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Even if omicron is comparatively mild the way it affects young kids is going to bounce back hard on the anti vax crusaders.

Yeah that is worrying hopefully it remains mild and long covid isn't a problem. 

 

We are all going to be exposed at some point and we will see deaths rise but the rates should be compared to the infection/case rate and considering that stays low in relation, it could signal that this is nearly over. (Optimism lol)

 

Just have to watch the figures and hope none of the kids get seriously ill... 

[Bkk Brian]

5 hours ago, Sanookmike said:

Haha no it doesn't come from a Twitter thread... and ppl have accused me of spreading misinformation. He goes through the main study that you linked.. and also linked to it in the description of the video????. As with all of his videos he goes through the main studies with you. Anyone can just go check the video we are talking about and see your wrong... Made your self look a bit silly

 

Why lie??

 

He also states it's a snapshot profile as it says in the study..

 

However I understand that you prob didn't watch it all before making your comment.

 

 

You are confused. I linked to the main study as source

 Twitter wss where it was announced. I would think it pretty obvious I was not implying twitter as source of study. You are excused for your error.

 

Let me repeat it for you. i prefer to go to source when possible not a youtube video, that is why I linked to it so others could do the same if they are interested.

Edited December 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Bkk Brian]

Interesting, from Reuters:

 

Omicron variant may have picked up a piece of common-cold virus

 

By inserting this particular snippet into itself, Omicron might be making itself look "more human," which would help it evade attack by the human immune system, said Venky Soundararajan of Cambridge, Massachusetts-based data analytics firm nference, who led the study posted on Thursday on the website OSF Preprints.

 

The study here, yet to be peer reviewed: https://osf.io/f7txy/

 

[Sanookmike]

On 12/6/2021 at 12:11 AM, Bkk Brian said:

I prefer to go to the source of data when possible and in this particular video of his it comes from this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1467172016918773775

 

With the main study being here:

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

 

 

Please see your direct quote.. you clearly stated that the info in the video came from a twittter thread.

 

The main study source was show in the video and links provided with encouragement to go and read it for yourself. Anyone who cared to watch the video had access to the link of the main study.

 

You seemed to imply that my conclusions are based condensed data when we are looking at the same thing.

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Sanookmike