SURVEY: Omicron--Dangerous, Worrisome or Overblown?

[fjb 24]

9 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

Given that Thailand is nowhere near getting most people double jabbed

Actually, Thailand's vaccination rate is on par with many western countries now, nearing 61% fully vaccinated with about 5% having received a booster vaccination.

In total the claim is north of 93M total injections.

[Virt]

4 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Nobody has mentioned that new infections in South Africa have flattened.

Nice ????

 

Which data are used to determine that?

it's it numbers of admissions to hospitals or number of positive tests or something else?

 

if it's the numbers of positive tests, I'm not that optimistic since SA does not test a lot of people.

They are almost on par with Thailand, which is not that much 

 

if we look at Europe then Denmark and UK are seeing the omicron cases going up and up and up.

Denmark has the highest numbers of confirmed cases in Europe pr million, but i would assume that because we're testing a lot more than other countries.

 

Chart of the 4 i mentioned.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day?tab=chart&country=GBR~DNK~THA~ZAF

 

Some says it's a waste of time and money to test and sequence so much as Denmark does and not really useful, but i don't think so.

 

We're genome sequencing the majority of the positive tests, so if a new messed up mutation has emerged, there would be a good chance to find it quickly.

[Rulie]

Latest information out of Africa is that is mild, no hospitalizations at this point. First 4 infected were vaccinated. 

[Rulie]

11 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

SA = South America? San Antonio? other? 

 

I think the real and ultimate danger is that the more time this virus has, the more often this virus mutates, the more chance that it gets really dangerous. 

Most viruses when they mutate get less dangerous and life threatening. Its natures way.

 

[partington]

23 minutes ago, Rulie said:

Most viruses when they mutate get less dangerous and life threatening. Its natures way.

 

It isn't. This is simply an urban myth. Some do, most don't. Here are a few that haven't. Smallpox, Dengue fever, Yellow Fever, Zika, Ebola, Rabies, HIV.

 

It's estimated smallpox has infected humans for around 10,000 years. Before vaccination it still killed 1 in 3 people who got it.

Edited December 12, 2021 by partington

[Rulie]

You may be right, but from I have read and heard from doctors most get less dangerous. More contagious but less deadly 

[mommysboy]

Whether it's worrying or not, milder or not, I think as individuals and as a society we really need to run the gauntlet. This is surely not such a big risk for those who are vaccinated, and ideally one should get a booster at the earliest opportunity.  Life will only return to normal when our bodies become less naive to the virus - vaccinations are a short cut for sure. By all means try to protect the vulnerable by shielding, etc.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/5/2021 at 11:48 PM, allanos said:

Who is one supposed to believe, the mongers of doom and gloom such as are found on this forum, or those closest to the scientific source of discovery/isolation of the new corona virus variant?

 

After consulting his Health Minister, yesterday President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa said, "early data shows that while the Omicron variant of Covid-19 appears to be more transmissible, hospital admission rates have remained stable"!

 

South African doctors have all reported that the observed effects have so far been mild and give no cause for alarm. No deaths from the Omicron virus have yet been reported.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, some seem to be of the mindset that it is all bad and every day brings more doom.

I don't deny them their right to be doomsayers, but their desire to lock everyone up and make people wear masks forever is somewhat disappointing.

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, Rulie said:

Most viruses when they mutate get less dangerous and life threatening. Its natures way.

 

I don't know enough about it to say if that is true or not, but if a virus killed everyone it would not survive, which IMO is against nature. Therefore, to survive, it would need to not kill everyone it infected.

[Credo]

17 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I don't know enough about it to say if that is true or not, but if a virus killed everyone it would not survive, which IMO is against nature. Therefore, to survive, it would need to not kill everyone it infected.

It's a generalization and probably true, in general.  The difficulty is that if it finds a new host, we may end up only being collateral damage.  In that case, whether we die or not, the virus continues to thrive.   

 

Right now, we know a number of species are vulnerable to infection. 

[Bkk Brian]

The South African President has just tested positive, he was fully vaccinated and currently just feeling unwell with mild symptoms

[partington]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I don't know enough about it to say if that is true or not, but if a virus killed everyone it would not survive, which IMO is against nature. Therefore, to survive, it would need to not kill everyone it infected.

So you have never heard of any organisms not surviving in nature?  Interesting point of view. It's called extinction and it has happened to 98% of all the species that have ever existed on earth.

https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/what-is-mass-extinction-and-are-we-facing-a-sixth-one.html

 

In fact if a virus is mostly transmitted before it kills its victims, like the Covid-19 virus, there is no selection pressure to stop it being fatal.  Evolution can't see the future, its point is to maximise replication, and if that meant killing everybody (it never does because of acquired immunity), that's what would happen.

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, partington said:

So you have never heard of any organisms not surviving in nature?  Interesting point of view. It's called extinction and it has happened to 98% of all the species that have ever existed on earth.

https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/what-is-mass-extinction-and-are-we-facing-a-sixth-one.html

 

In fact if a virus is mostly transmitted before it kills its victims, like the Covid-19 virus, there is no selection pressure to stop it being fatal.  Evolution can't see the future, its point is to maximise replication, and if that meant killing everybody (it never does because of acquired immunity), that's what would happen.

It's always been the way that these types of respiratory viruses come and go, sooner or later for a variety of reasons including mutation to a weaker form and viral interference.

 

The biggest problem imo is rank unfitness in much of the population (prime examples UK/USA) together with immune naivety.

[Danderman123]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

It's always been the way that these types of respiratory viruses come and go, sooner or later for a variety of reasons including mutation to a weaker form and viral interference.

 

The biggest problem imo is rank unfitness in much of the population (prime examples UK/USA) together with immune naivety.

Not true. 

 

Viruses do not necessarily weaken over time. 

[Danderman123]

On 12/12/2021 at 8:49 AM, TorquayFan said:

Thanks Dander. I hadn't seen that ! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10299773/South-Africas-Omicron-outbreak-slows-figures-suggest.html

 

As drawn from only a few days figures but let's hope that proves to be a trend.

 

 

SA just announced that they hadn't counted 18,000 cases yesterday, so now they have 37,000 new cases. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Danderman123

[Danderman123]

9 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Unfortunately, some seem to be of the mindset that it is all bad and every day brings more doom.

I don't deny them their right to be doomsayers, but their desire to lock everyone up and make people wear masks forever is somewhat disappointing.

Probably the unvaccinated will have to be locked up. 

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

SA just announced that they hadn't counted 18,000 cases yesterday, so now they have 37,000 new cases. 

yea 37,875 and positivity rate back up to 28.9%

[mommysboy]

28 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Not true. 

 

Viruses do not necessarily weaken over time. 

Respiratory (cold like) virus strains though do come and go though.  This is surely uncontestable.

 

Sure what you said about viruses generally is true, but we are not talking about smallpox, measles, etc.

[Danderman123]

25 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Respiratory (cold like) virus strains though do come and go though.  This is surely uncontestable.

 

Sure what you said about viruses generally is true, but we are not talking about smallpox, measles, etc.

Yes. Minor infections sweep through the population until only the immune remain, and then they die. But they don’t weaken, they disappear.

 

Now you are saying that Covid will weaken because reasons.

 

 

[Danderman123]

50 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

yea 37,875 and positivity rate back up to 28.9%

The data from SA is ratty. We get raw numbers, but these are not terribly useful.

 

Over 60 years old, vaccinated - how do they cope with Omicron vs the unvaccinated? I have no idea.

 

If Omicron is mild, why are hospitals filling up? If someone has mild symptoms, why are they in the hospital?

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Probably the unvaccinated will have to be locked up. 

 

Is that a secret dream you have, to lock up non criminals?

,

 

You want to pay more tax to feed them and keep their power on etc, as if they are locked up they won't be working. Also, that would, IMO, be against so many constitutional/ human rights that it would tie up the courts for years. Perhaps you would like dictators to rule your country so they don't have to abide by laws.

 

Also, do you really imagine that all the millions of unvaccinated in poor countries all over the world will be locked up? I'll chance saying it ain't gonna happen, so are you advocating armed guards along every border to keep the illegal immigrants out, like a Berlin wall in reverse?

[Airalee]

7 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Probably the unvaccinated will have to be locked up. 

The unvaccinated are most likely the young.  They’re needed to cook, clean, etc. for the old vaccinated folks.  They need to work also in order to pay taxes that support the pensions and healthcare of old vaccinated pensioners.   It would probably be easier (and safer) to lock up all older people (to keep them safe).  More cost effective too as many are already on their way to the retirement home.

[Scott]

19 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I don't know enough about it to say if that is true or not, but if a virus killed everyone it would not survive, which IMO is against nature. Therefore, to survive, it would need to not kill everyone it infected.

HIV has managed to continue to be a pandemic that kills nearly 100% of the cases that aren't treated and treatment has to continue for their entire life.   The HIV virus is alive and doing quite well.  

[Virt]

On 12/12/2021 at 2:16 PM, Rulie said:

Most viruses when they mutate get less dangerous and life threatening. Its natures way.

 

I think i have to call the Delta variant and inform it that it completely misunderstood how nature works ????

[Kadilo]

Agree with the vast majority with  “Significance overblown”. 
 

 Nothing reported so far serious cause for concern, just a lot of overreaction and dramatics. 

[Scott]

I think a few posters are missing a point about the virus.  If a variant is highly transmissible even if it has a low mortality rate, it can be a major problem.  If it effects larger numbers of people more easily, a certain number of those people are still going to be unable to mount enough of an immune defense to fight the virus.  

 

If more people get it, then it is likely that more people will die although the percentage of deaths may drop.   The same is true of severe illness and hospitalizations.  Each day, people will be a little older and starting to cross into the elderly category and new cases of immuno-compromising will crop up leaving new people at risk.

 

We also have to keep in mind that medical personnel have a much better idea of what works and what doesn't than they did earlier in the pandemic.  Hopefully, the antiviral medications will start to be widely available and further lower the strain on medical facilities. 

[Scott]

Off-topic, troll posts and replies removed.  

 

[Caldera]

I think it will become a problem, and sooner than we wish.

[mommysboy]

10 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Yes. Minor infections sweep through the population until only the immune remain, and then they die. But they don’t weaken, they disappear.

 

Now you are saying that Covid will weaken because reasons.

 

 

Because that tends to be the way with a particular strain over time, or it gets usurped by another strain/variant (viral interference), or that sufficient people become even partly immune.

 

Surely, the main point here is that they go eventually!  

 

They can indeed weaken in the sense that they become less virulent, but perhaps more transmissible and this may in fact be happening with the latest omicron variant.

 

No, the original strains or variants don't weaken as such in an absolute sense.

 

 

[Virt]

6 hours ago, Caldera said:

I think it will become a problem, and sooner than we wish.

Give it a few weeks and we know some more.  It's hard to compare Data from South Africa, that has a young population and is in their summer season at the moment.

 

When Omicron could spread so fast in South Africa so close to their normal summer season, it's going to be interesting to see what happens in the colder climates.

 

So far we have registered 3437 cases of omicron in Denmark and it's still rising each day.  We went from 0,1% of omicron cases to 10,7% in the period 27 nov- 8 dec.

 

Today it's 12,3 % if my math is correct (today is 7799 cases of covid and 966 of them are Omicron).  So it's not rising as fast as one could fear, but it's still on the rise.

 

We can't compare the numbers of positives omicrons cases in Denmark to other countries since we test a lot more compared to other countries.

 

We can instead look at the numbers from hospitals and so far the numbers in hospitals here are not exploding.  Hopefully it stays like that, but it can change fast, so all bets are off...