Grim worst case for Thailand next year if people lower their guard against COVID-19

[Big Bert]

But mutton chops said Omicron was no match for Thai doctors. did he speak an untruth? 

[Destiny1990]

If from 30,000 infected with Omicron only 25 people will end up in the hospital then just call it a flue and open up everything.

[dogfish180]

14 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is grim if the continued complacency and lack of social distancing and mask wearing continues.  On the morning walk today as we went by a few street food cart sellers, the folks operating the cart and making the food, were not wearing masks, and yet the lines at 7:30 am were long as folks picked up food to take to work today and they did not seem bothered by this fact, or they did not care.

 

My Housekeeper, who is also a live in and has her own room, mentioned this to the GF yesterday.  She had the day off as she does every Sunday, and upon returning from stepping out in the morning was completely besides herself over this fact.

And no one died ????

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Big Bert said:

But mutton chops said Omicron was no match for Thai doctors. did he speak an untruth? 

It is no match for them as they and every doctor in the world can not keep one from getting the virus.

[hotchilli]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

According to Public Health Permanent Secretary Dr.Kiattibhoom Vongrachit, the Department of Disease Control, in the first scenario, in which the majority of the population do not strictly comply with universal preventive measures, it is projected that an average of 30,000 people will be infected by Omicron variant every day from March through July.

Given that New Year is just around the corner, en-mass festivities are being organised by provinces, Thais always visit families and drinking parties will prevail, it's safe to assume it's a given Thailand will suffer the consequences earlier than March.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, dogfish180 said:

And no one died ????

Is their a point to your remark? if so please inform us all.

[rainham]

As far as i know from the  UK news its fairly mild.  I'm puzzled  as to why our Government is making such a big fuss over it tbh it seems to be doing what viruses do in that it spreads more easily which is good from the point of view of a virus but it doesn't cause its host to become seriously ill  which is the best outcome for a virus it wants to live in us and spread easily if it causes us to become seriously ill and possibly even die it dies as well so game over. ideally it will mutate and become  no worse than the common cold in fact the only virus we have managed to stop dead is Small pox we can't even cure the common cold, 

Stay  safe  

[Stoker58]

“The Thai Ministry of Public Health has unveiled bleak pictures of three worst case scenarios……”.

.

Scaremongering, that’s the problem right there. Any bug going around is no worse than all the other bugs that routinely circulate through society.

[WEBBYB808]

Too late, and we already know the guard has been lowered in certain  places.  Bars open,  tourist everywhere with no mask.  People going to hospitals  after testing positive  at home atk test, and the hospital  sends them home.  The numbers are already climbing  and will reach higher long before March.  As long as the deaths don't climb may possibly be the way of thinking.  Cases are climbing  in the villages.   It's not the tourist or other foreigners that the government  should be worried about.  It's their own rural population  that is starting to feel the issue with rising cases, and what the rise will do to them.

[PEE TEE]

Not much hope for Samui as the full moon party's are still ongoing 

[Capella]

Thailand will have to do what Australia and other countries are now doing - it will have to realise that only hospitalisations matter, infections don't. Omicron, in particular, is extremely contagious (lots of infections) but leads to far fewer hospitalisations than previous strains, as studies in African countries (where it originated) have shown. 

 

Whilst there is a rump of vested interests who hate to see the back of covid, or any other upheaval for that matter, common sense is starting to prevail. 

[kiwikeith]

13 hours ago, koratkarlos said:

From my reading today it appears that 1) Sinovac offers no protection from Omicron (a limited sample study out of Hong Kong) and 2) the hospitalization rates for unvaccinated people are 11% lower for Omicron compared to Delta (data from England).  If these observations are true cases and hospitalizations should reach prior peak levels.  My guess is by late February.  But will they report it.  And will the country lock down again.  Uncertain times ahead for sure.

By February it may be over, the SA r  rate was 2.4, and some say higher.

Is has displaced Delta and its looking that way according to UK,USA, and SA data.

The hospital rate is from Delta was 12.5 ,Omicron down to 2.5. Thailand can nor stop it now and from whats happening in SA its looking like good news.

If you want the latest figures search Dr John Campbells latest on you tube and DR Mobeen has just put up the latest data from the USA and UK and SA , but according to the data presented by these Dr's it starting to look good.

So in a few weeks time Omicron will be throughout Thailand, it can not be stopped with lockdowns or vaccines, Australia has admitted that, SA knew that and let it rip, and Delta may very well be completely Dop solop salai, in SA, Chun wung wah, (knocked out I hope so)

[cyril sneer]

Everyone in Thailand has had it at some point so omicron won’t be a problem unless they start testing the way they do in the west 

[Clarkey611]

1 hour ago, Dialemco said:

Under estimate probably about 100,000 to 200,000 every day as Comricron is very infectious.

The problem with a nut in charge is that he is only releasing a maximum of 30,000 tests per day onto the market to ensure that his target is met.

[rainham]

On 12/28/2021 at 7:43 AM, Stoker58 said:

“The Thai Ministry of Public Health has unveiled bleak pictures of three worst case scenarios……”.

.

Scaremongering, that’s the problem right there. Any bug going around is no worse than all the other bugs that routinely circulate through society.

Agreed Sir, i am struggling to find evidence of an omicron death any where it's weird.  i had  my booster a few weeks ago and the nurse that stuck it in me said that the 2 AZ vaccines i had previously were completely ineffective against the omicron virus and that the Moderna Vaccine she gave me would only last 3 months at best i spent 2 day's of it laid up in bed it's all a bit weird if you ask me the government are going crazy to get everyone vaccinated even though it isn't that  dangerous  I'm a bit dubious  although not as sceptical as my mate Chas who hasn't had any vaccines as he thinks there is a planet next to us that is responsible for many things including but not limited to turning us all into robots to much you tube ????????

[BKKBike09]

4 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

The only reason it will get this bad is if there are large sections of the public that remain unvaccinated. Vaccines are the answer, no matter what all the loonies keep telling you

 

 

Interesting data. Below is data for influenza deaths in USA. Averaged out across all age groups (as per the CDC stats above, that's basically 7 deaths per 100,000 for influenza vs 6 deaths per 100,000 for Covid even in the unvaccinated.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127799/influenza-us-mortality-rate-by-age-group/

 

Covid is clearly a serious health threat to specific vulnerable groups but from the way data is often presented, you'd think it was the Black Death. 

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by BKKBike09
content

[jesimps]

12 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sukhumvit here in Bangkok was jumping off tonight, a monday of all days. Many foreigners in town and the majority being dumb arises and not wearing masks, either on the streets or in the MRT. Sometimes you can't fix stupid.

Lots of stupid locals about too. There was a very loud party on the golf course which, my house adjoins, on Christmas evening. You may depend there'll be a right old knees up on New Year's Eve, then when they all return to their home provinces, Omicron will be well and truly shared amongst everyone. Why they don't stop inter-province travel for all but essential travel is beyond me. You'd think they'd have learned from Songkran and NY.

[spidermike007]

Along with Public Health Permanent Secretary Dr. Kiattibhoom Vongrachit, there is an awful lot of panic mongering going on within this thread. So far, the worldwide deaths have been a pinhead from Omicron. One would think this is Spanish Flu or Bubonic plague, when reading some of these replies. It is not. Not even close to Delta in terms of serious cases. 

[XJPSX]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is grim if the continued complacency and lack of social distancing and mask wearing continues.  On the morning walk today as we went by a few street food cart sellers, the folks operating the cart and making the food, were not wearing masks, and yet the lines at 7:30 am were long as folks picked up food to take to work today and they did not seem bothered by this fact, or they did not care.

 

My Housekeeper, who is also a live in and has her own room, mentioned this to the GF yesterday.  She had the day off as she does every Sunday, and upon returning from stepping out in the morning was completely besides herself over this fact.

I work in an industrial area and often see 30+ people jammed into a baht bus like sardines and hanging off the back….most not wearing masks. 
If it’s going to spread anywhere it will be here. 
Fortunately Omicron is mild and we all need to move on. Funny how nobody has died from the regular flu in the last couple years. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by XJPSX

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, XJPSX said:

I work in an industrial area and often see 30+ people jammed into a baht bus like sardines and hanging off the back….most not wearing masks. 
If it’s going to spread anywhere it will be here. 
Fortunately Omicron is mild and we all need to move on. Funny how nobody has died from the regular flu in the last couple years. 

Oh there have been flu deaths, just not being reported as they usually did not report them on a daily basis like they do with covid.

[IamNoone88]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is grim if the continued complacency and lack of social distancing and mask wearing continues.  On the morning walk today as we went by a few street food cart sellers, the folks operating the cart and making the food, were not wearing masks, and yet the lines at 7:30 am were long as folks picked up food to take to work today and they did not seem bothered by this fact, or they did not care.

 

My Housekeeper, who is also a live in and has her own room, mentioned this to the GF yesterday.  She had the day off as she does every Sunday, and upon returning from stepping out in the morning was completely besides herself over this fact.

In Phuket it is principally the tourists who don't give a damn about wearing a mask. The locals remain quite compliant.

[chiman]

It's news already that cloth coverings don't slow the spread of Omicron as with previous variants (agree or not) .. and before you jump on my back, we wear masks everywhere and are very careful.  The news is Omicron is that contagious .. luckily its "mild" compared to Delta and the original strain, still waiting to hear how mild, triple vaccinated  friend was just hospitalized with Omicron, he and 49 of his colleagues all caught it on a business trip to NYC.  They tested negative PCR before their flight home, and negative on return, then a few days later they were all sick... he was given Monoclonal Antibody treatment.  

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/23/1066871176/mask-n95-omicron-contagious

[Guderian]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

According to ... the Department of Disease Control ... an average of 30,000 people will be infected by Omicron variant every day from March through July.

That provides an interesting insight into what they think of their own testing programme. The UK and France, for example, with similar populations to Thailand, are experiencing well over 100,000 confirmed new cases a day now, with a similar number probably not being tested or confirmed as their symptoms are mild or non-existent. So they're basically admitting that their testing programme is only around 25% to 30% as effective as those in advanced economies, and is only likely to catch around one-seventh of the actual daily cases. Bear that in mind when you read the new daily case numbers over the coming weeks.

[Highend Expat]

13 hours ago, ukrules said:

Why do they not think they will get 50,000 to 100,000 cases per day like everywhere else?

I suspect they KNOW they won't because they simply will not test and confirm that number.

 

It's the same game as last time. Don't test too much, don't report too much and constantly tell the world Thailand is open for tourism. If they have one more year of low tourism (likely), I think we'll start to see the economy collapsing.

[Panadadad]

13 hours ago, champers said:

I believe this article only gives half the story. Along with the published 3 worst case scenarios there was also 3 best case scenarios but these are unpublished. Perhaps they offer a degree of balance.

They don’t publish the 3 best case scenario because they want everyone to live in fear

[Millcx]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is grim if the continued complacency and lack of social distancing and mask wearing continues.  On the morning walk today as we went by a few street food cart sellers, the folks operating the cart and making the food, were not wearing masks, and yet the lines at 7:30 am were long as folks picked up food to take to work today and they did not seem bothered by this fact, or they did not care.

 

My Housekeeper, who is also a live in and has her own room, mentioned this to the GF yesterday.  She had the day off as she does every Sunday, and upon returning from stepping out in the morning was completely besides herself over this fact.

555555555555555555

[koratkarlos]

36 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

It is not. Not even close to Delta in terms of serious cases. 

Certainly we all hope that this is the case.  But I am not so sure this can be concluded yet.   Omicron has spread in countries that have had high exposure to the virus (S. Africa) or pretty good vaccinations (England).  I am concerned about Thailand as some of the vaccines used do not seem to protect against Omicron and none of the vaccines seem to last very long.  Anyway time will tell.  I just hope that they do not lock down the country again as the economic consequences far outweigh the health risks at this point in time.  

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Panadadad said:

They don’t publish the 3 best case scenario because they want everyone to live in fear

Oh boy...and you believe that now don't you.  Seems the conspiracy folks have their hooks into you. The phrase most folks would use when they see an OP like this would be "Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best"

Edited December 28, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[nausea]

I look on with amusement. 

[candide]

1 hour ago, BKKBike09 said:

Interesting data. Below is data for influenza deaths in USA. Averaged out across all age groups (as per the CDC stats above, that's basically 7 deaths per 100,000 for influenza vs 6 deaths per 100,000 for Covid even in the unvaccinated.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127799/influenza-us-mortality-rate-by-age-group/

 

Covid is clearly a serious health threat to specific vulnerable groups but from the way data is often presented, you'd think it was the Black Death. 

 

 

 

Ahem... The death rate for Covid-19 in the USA is 248.76 per 100,000, not 6 death per 100,000.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Edited December 28, 2021 by candide