Expert Predicts Rise in COVID-19 Cases But Herd Immunity Possibility From Omicron

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, bluehippie said:

Like this unsubstantiated pronouncement:

"Delta was well on the way to being controlled by vaccines before omicron mutated in an unvaccinated person."

 

Your "pronouncement" is an assumption, based on nothing more than an unproven theory.

But if you have a "link" to prove otherwise, you should provide it here.

 

In the meantime, here are some links to the theories.

https://www.alternet.org/2021/12/omicron-origins/

https://www.salon.com/2021/12/21/theres-a-giant-mysterious-gap-in-the-omicron-variants-family-tree/

 

 

A few months ago, before omicron, charts clearly showed a strong decline in delta cases world wide. Do you dispute this? If so I will post more links to prove it was the case.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/covid-cases-are-dropping-u-s-delta-wave-over-ncna1282585

 

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/10/08/delta-variant-pandemic-decline

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/28/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

As for my claim that omicron mutated in an unvaccinated person. Here are some links. I had already posted links to this effect at the time and so for those paying attention this was well established.

 

"“No question there's a lot more replication happening among unvaccinated people, and replication is the heart of mutations that lead us to” variants such as omicron."

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/02/dr-ashish-jha-breaks-down-omicron-and-why-covid-mutates-so-easily-in-the-unvaccinated/8836141002/

 

The mutation of the Omicron variant could be down to "reservoirs" of the virus lurking in the unvaccinated and immunosuppressed.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emergence-of-omicron-variant-could-be-down-to-reservoirs-of-virus-in-the-unvaccinated-and-immunosuppressed-12481188

 

 

 

[sambum]

"The expert noted as well that the outlook for vaccine manufacturers may not be as bright going forward as a consequence of this trend."

 

As I said in a response to another post on here  today "Oh dear,what a shame!"

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, sambum said:

"The expert noted as well that the outlook for vaccine manufacturers may not be as bright going forward as a consequence of this trend."

 

As I said in a response to another post on here  today "Oh dear,what a shame!"

NOBODY is over blowing coronavirus in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies.

[sambum]

15 hours ago, DoctorB said:

What he says is irrelevant. What matters is what the politicians and others with an interest in keeping their hands on the levers of power decide. As some cynic remarked, "Power is a ratchet, not a pendulum". Or, to quote Winston Churchill, "Never let a good crisis go to waste". They will keep this going for a long time yet.

Unless they find another excuse to keep the "State of Emergency" in place?

[sambum]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

NOBODY is over blowing coronavirus in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies.

"overblowing"? Strange word, but sorry, I agree with what he is saying - I think that he is speaking a lot of sense, regardless of the fact that some of what he says has also been attributed to other people.

 

I also think that the "fear factor" has been used in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies, but I can not prove it!

 

 

[bluehippie]

12 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

omicron mutated in an unvaccinated person."

The above pronouncement has not been proven, and is not a scientific fact. You are not being factual and instead deflecting. Try not to be so boastful and forceful with your false, "red flag" misleading, incorrect, statements, etc showing your level of basic deceit and obvious incompetence.

[James105]

3 minutes ago, sambum said:

Unless they find another excuse to keep the "State of Emergency" in place?

I would expect climate change lockdowns to replace covid once it has naturally run its course (just 3 weeks to flatten the CO2 levels etc).   We are entering a new phase in human history now that governments worldwide have discovered how easy it is to control their sheep people via the medium of fear.   They even have a lot of useful unpaid idiots that repeat their mantras verbatim and spread the fear for them.  I don't think there has ever been a better time to be a wannabe totalitarian who wants to control the minutia of peoples lives.   

 

I'm looking forward to the time when all the expert epidemiologists and virologists on here become expert paleoclimatologists and tell us how many we can expect to die from climate disasters on a daily basis. 

[Chiang Mai Will]

21 hours ago, misterworldwide said:

Some good news!

It's a theory -- and one that hasn't yet been reported by the Western media -- but maybe he's right!

 

The only factor not calculated for is that there are millions in the world that haven't yet been vaccinated (including children) (and the many anti-vaccers!) who can/will continue to mutate, incubate and produce variants that we are not immune to!

[Rimmer]

A misleading post has been removed

[ozimoron]

50 minutes ago, sambum said:

"overblowing"? Strange word, but sorry, I agree with what he is saying - I think that he is speaking a lot of sense, regardless of the fact that some of what he says has also been attributed to other people.

 

I also think that the "fear factor" has been used in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies, but I can not prove it!

 

 

Then you shouldn't even say it. Unsubstantiated "opinions" about scientific issues are verbal garbage and a waste of everybody's time. What you are suggesting is nothing less than a conspiracy theory and patently unlikely to be true. The authority is not suggesting that the virus has been overdone or that it's pursuing an agenda,

Edited January 5, 2022 by ozimoron

[VBF]

20 hours ago, peter zwart said:

Omicron coronavirus variant will develop into a live vaccine that provides immunity without the need for booster shots.

Finaly some one that make sense. Let the European knuckleheads listen to this man. 

Well to be fair.....   Covid: Boris Johnson plans to 'ride out' Omicron wave with no more curbs

[fangless]

15 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

What has the chimney got to do with it?

Cause all the cr@p about this "new" virus appears to have now gone up in smoke!!

????

Edited January 5, 2022 by fangless

[ozimoron]

Just now, fangless said:

Cause all the cr@p about this "new" virus appears to have now gone up in smoke!!

????

The local nurses union in the small town where I live is warning of an imminent collapse of the health system due to omicron cases causing overload and there is a young child described as "seriously unwell" in hospital. .

[micmichd]

22 hours ago, jackinthebox said:

>The expert noted as well that the outlook for vaccine manufacturers may not be as bright going forward as a consequence of this trend.

 

What? At least for research and development it certainliy is bright. Biontech is booming here in germany (suddenly even making City of Mainz and Bundesland Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate) a wealthy state due to taxes) and you hear scientists speaking of the twenties as a "virology decade"

OP is not about anything in Germany, OP is about herd immunity in Thailand. 

[xtrnuno41]

He is running slow. the virus is way much faster.

Forget about Omicron, France has a new virus, coming from ... Africa, Kameroen.

You can google it, im not making it up. Was on news internet (MSN) this morning, but already many sites come up with it

Not yet another Greek letter, but it is there.

Good thing from WHO, forget about other countries to vaccinate and you ll get new ones on your plate.

That is proven now ever since pandemic started.

We are running around in circles with no proper actions.  Pfizer and Modena are laughing their ass of.

[geisha]

23 hours ago, misterworldwide said:

Some good news!

My friend had Omicron here in France around Christmas. She is 60 and also asthmatic. She was in bed at home for 3 days, very tired with cold symptoms. 4 th day fine. They also told her that her Omicron was a very high count. 
it seems for most people , like a cold.

[geisha]

Home or room quarantine seems to be enough , no need to overload hospital unless urgent.

[peter zwart]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

Well to be fair.....   Covid: Boris Johnson plans to 'ride out' Omicron wave with no more curbs

Did Boris read my post you think? Im delighted.

[bumpity]

First. "Immunity" means... You can't get it any more!  Covid is already proven itself as a virus you can get repeatedly, so "herd immunity" is impossible unless the virus completely dies out. 

 

Second, the good doctor is a "pulminologist" - NOT qualified as an expert in this field. His opinion is not expert (see paragraph one). 

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

3 hours ago, Flink said:

Modelling: yeah, so the SAGE committee who decide the UK's response to the pandemic (odd that, I thought the populace voted in the government to run, and make decisions for,the country. Not some think tank full of communists) uses modelling and they show highdeath rates. Here's the thing though, when they requst the models to be made the brief they give is "What would be the WORST scenario if no action, vaccination program, masking, lockdowns were in place?" and the model is made to those specs. So, obviously, they are not showing reality, just a version of reality they have cooked up. The modelling graphs have appeared online and show the "projected"  death rates but bear no resemblance to the "actual" death rates. They are used as a tool to force governments with a weak disposition to enforce more hardships on their populations. They have no other purpose.

Yep. They also did the modelling for Omicron using the assumption that Omicron would be as virulent / deadly as Delta, even though data from South Africa suggested otherwise. SAGE should be giving us 3 models:

 

1. Worst case

2. Likely case based on info so far

3. Best case

 

Hopefully Dr Manoon and others can help to provide some balance. 

 

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

3 hours ago, ozimoron said:

NOBODY is over blowing coronavirus in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies.

I'm sure most medical experts are giving their honest opinions and analysis. Doctors always err on the side of caution. I mean, if doctors ran the world nobody would be allowed to drink alcohol, smoke, eat bacon/butter/chocolate etc. etc. 

 

But I think it's a bit naive to say NOBODY is overblowing the pandemic for the benefit of big pharma. Or was that a joke? 

Edited January 5, 2022 by CG1 Blue

[ozimoron]

34 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I'm sure most medical experts are giving their honest opinions and analysis. Doctors always err on the side of caution. I mean, if doctors ran the world nobody would be allowed to drink alcohol, smoke, eat bacon/butter/chocolate etc. etc. 

 

But I think it's a bit naive to say NOBODY is overblowing the pandemic for the benefit of big pharma. Or was that a joke? 

It was not a joke. Who would you believe was doing that? We know the virus is terrible. It doesn't need overblowing. The press and doctors have been upfront in saying that initial data was pointing to omicron being milder (by about 50%) than delta. I haven't read any accounts of over exaggeration of the dangers of any variant. Have you? If so, where?

[ozimoron]

1 hour ago, bumpity said:

First. "Immunity" means... You can't get it any more!  Covid is already proven itself as a virus you can get repeatedly, so "herd immunity" is impossible unless the virus completely dies out. 

 

Second, the good doctor is a "pulminologist" - NOT qualified as an expert in this field. His opinion is not expert (see paragraph one). 

 

Are you kidding? A respiratory specialist isn't qualified to discuss a disease of the respiratory system?

[ozimoron]

2 hours ago, xtrnuno41 said:

He is running slow. the virus is way much faster.

Forget about Omicron, France has a new virus, coming from ... Africa, Kameroen.

You can google it, im not making it up. Was on news internet (MSN) this morning, but already many sites come up with it

Not yet another Greek letter, but it is there.

Good thing from WHO, forget about other countries to vaccinate and you ll get new ones on your plate.

That is proven now ever since pandemic started.

We are running around in circles with no proper actions.  Pfizer and Modena are laughing their ass of.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/french-scientists-discover-new-mutant-covid-variant-which-could-be-more-resistant-to-vaccines/news-story/3f0f3dd255130ce57d68cde9292a94d6

[CG1 Blue]

25 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I haven't read any accounts of over exaggeration of the dangers of any variant. Have you? If so, where?

There are plenty of examples if you do a quick search. Here's one good summary: 

 

'As recently as October, SAGE was reported to have predicted 7000 hospital admissions a day, a scenario which didn’t come close to materialising; in fact, admissions barely topped 1000.

Professor Medley explained that the models produced by SAGE were “not predictions”; rather than models produced for a broad range of eventualities, their remit was far more limited. Policymakers discuss ‘with modellers what they need to inform their policy’ and models are created on the back of such discussions. Therefore, models are produced to ‘support a decision’ made by policymakers, rather than on the likelihood or plausibility of an event.'

https://unherd.com/thepost/sages-doomsday-predictions-are-damaging-public-trust/

 

Media outlets then latch onto these wild predictions and use them in alarmist headlines. That must do a a lot of harm (which is explained quite well in that article). 

 

 Dr Manoon's comments give some welcome balance IMO. 

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

There are plenty of examples if you do a quick search. Here's one good summary: 

 

'As recently as October, SAGE was reported to have predicted 7000 hospital admissions a day, a scenario which didn’t come close to materialising; in fact, admissions barely topped 1000.

Professor Medley explained that the models produced by SAGE were “not predictions”; rather than models produced for a broad range of eventualities, their remit was far more limited. Policymakers discuss ‘with modellers what they need to inform their policy’ and models are created on the back of such discussions. Therefore, models are produced to ‘support a decision’ made by policymakers, rather than on the likelihood or plausibility of an event.'

https://unherd.com/thepost/sages-doomsday-predictions-are-damaging-public-trust/

 

Media outlets then latch onto these wild predictions and use them in alarmist headlines. That must do a a lot of harm (which is explained quite well in that article). 

 

 Dr Manoon's comments give some welcome balance IMO. 

I have already explained in this thread that the modelling you referred to was based on an assumption of no vaccines. It has since been updated. No the goalposts have not changed, the vaccines have arrived. I posted the link above as well. Those are not statements of deliberate over exaggeration intended to support pharmaceutical companies which was your original claim. Try again or find more data to support your conspiracy theory.

[Cherrytreeview]

20 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

There are plenty of examples if you do a quick search. Here's one good summary: 

 

'As recently as October, SAGE was reported to have predicted 7000 hospital admissions a day, a scenario which didn’t come close to materialising; in fact, admissions barely topped 1000.

Professor Medley explained that the models produced by SAGE were “not predictions”; rather than models produced for a broad range of eventualities, their remit was far more limited. Policymakers discuss ‘with modellers what they need to inform their policy’ and models are created on the back of such discussions. Therefore, models are produced to ‘support a decision’ made by policymakers, rather than on the likelihood or plausibility of an event.'

https://unherd.com/thepost/sages-doomsday-predictions-are-damaging-public-trust/

 

Media outlets then latch onto these wild predictions and use them in alarmist headlines. That must do a a lot of harm (which is explained quite well in that article). 

 

 Dr Manoon's comments give some welcome balance IMO. 

You forget that people in the UK have been still under a few restrictions and more importantly that the population has modified it's socialising over the Christmas period.

People mix less because they are mixing in smaller family units over the Christmas period.

The figures you quote are worst case IF the virus was allowed to run wild.

Whilst not scaremongering, it certainly focuses the population's mind on what could happen.

That's why although the NHS is under pressure, those in hospital are a lot less than last January.

The UK has virtually all its vulnerable population triple jabbed as well.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Cherrytreeview
Edit

[CG1 Blue]

6 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I have already explained in this thread that the modelling you referred to was based on an assumption of no vaccines. It has since been updated. No the goalposts have not changed, the vaccines have arrived. I posted the link above as well. Those are not statements of deliberate over exaggeration intended to support pharmaceutical companies which was your original claim. Try again or find more data to support your conspiracy theory.

And my point is that you cannot dismiss the possibility that some people in the medical profession, in politics and in the media will benefit from a prolonged pandemic and may put biased views out there.

When listed companies have the potential to make trillions over the coming years, you cannot rule out corruption. You could say the same for Thailand with the fortunes being made from ASQ etc. 

I don't have a conspiracy theory, I just like to keep an open mind. And I am not naive enough to think NOBODY is taking advantage of the situation. 

[CG1 Blue]

4 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

You forget that people in the UK have been still under a few restrictions and more importantly that the population has modified it's socialising over the Christmas period.

People mix less because they are mixing in smaller family units over the Christmas period.

The figures you quote are worst case IF the virus was allowed to run wild.

Whilst not scaremongering, it certainly focuses the population's mind on what could happen.

That's why although the NHS is under pressure, those in hospital are a lot less than last January.

The UK has virtually all its vulnerable population triple jabbed as well.

I agree with a lot of what you say, but by not putting balanced arguments/stats/predictions out there we end up with people in dire states of mental health and even more division in society. 

[TheScience]

On 1/4/2022 at 4:55 PM, snoop1130 said:

immunity without the need for booster shots.

Truth out