ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[vinny41]

Norway does an excellent job of producing stats 

In 2023 Total number of private cars including  ambulances, combined vehicles and motor homes was 2,886 795

ICE vehicles total was 1,990,605 and combined BEV and PHEV was 896,190 giving BEV and PHEV market share of 45% or all private cars including  ambulances, combined vehicles and motor homes registered in 2023

https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/statistikk/bilparken

[Gweiloman]

15 hours ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

Without the govt incentives they would not have chosen ev's to this  degree, if you  have a  small  population in such a large land area its easier to produce the amount of electricity to  supply them especially when you have tons of hydro (which I mentioned due to its location re  read it) therefore its not a level playing field in any shape or  form its been massively subsidised  all of these subisidies will evaporate . Just as UK ev's  buyers are  now finding out with car tax being introduced for ev's. Norway is the exception to the rule for those  reasons and not typical of the ev market worldwide.  Norways electricity is very cheap if it was at a more "normal" price do you think they would  still buy them . Norway is the exception to the rule but held up as a poster boy  and as "the norm" it isnt its an outlier. https://www.statista.com/statistics/263492/electricity-prices-in-selected-countries/

• No purchase/import tax on EVs (1990-2022). From 2023 some purchase tax based on the cars’ weight on all new EVs.
• Exemption from 25% VAT on purchase (2001-2022). From 2023, Norway will implement a 25% VAT on the purchase price from 500 000 Norwegian Kroner and over
• No annual road tax (1996-2021). Reduced tax from 2021. Full tax from 2022.
• No charges on toll roads (1997- 2017).
• No charges on ferries (2009- 2017).
• Maximum 50% of the total amount on ferry fares for electric vehicles (2018)
• Maximum 50% of the total amount on toll roads (2018-2022). From 2023 70%
• Free municipal parking (1999- 2017)
• Access to bus lanes (2005-). New rules allow local authorities to limit the access to only include EVs that carry one or more passengers (2016-)
• 25% reduced company car tax (2000-2008). 50% reduced company car tax (2009-2017). Company car tax reduction reduced to 40% (2018-2021) and 20 percent from 2022.
• Exemption from 25% VAT on leasing (2015-)
• The Norwegian Parliament decided on a national goal that all new cars sold by 2025 should be zero-emission (electric or hydrogen) (2017).
• «Charging right» for people living in apartment buildings was established (2017-)
• Public procurement: From 2022 cars needs to be ZEV. From 2025 the same applies to city buses

There is no doubt that govt subsidies and incentives make EVs more appealing but neither you nor I can know for sure how much influence this has on the final purchase decision. Would I still have bought my EV here in Thailand if there wasn’t the 150,000k baht incentive? Probably.

 

I think your focus on hydro power etc is  bit over exaggerated. In many countries around the world, electricity prices are much cheaper than petrol prices. Here in Thailand for sure. Even in the UK. I would imagine that gas prices in the US must be very low, yet Teslas also sell very well there. Not so EVs from Ford and GM but that’s because they are rubbish.

[Gweiloman]

7 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Norway does an excellent job of producing stats 

In 2023 Total number of private cars including  ambulances, combined vehicles and motor homes was 2,886 795

ICE vehicles total was 1,990,605 and combined BEV and PHEV was 896,190 giving BEV and PHEV market share of 45% or all private cars including  ambulances, combined vehicles and motor homes registered in 2023

https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/statistikk/bilparken

All your post serves to prove is nothing.

 

Say that effective from today, the only phone available for sale in Thailand is “Vinnies”. 100% of all phones sales are Vinnies. However, there are 60 million non Vinnies phones around. It will still take time for Vinnies phones to first be 10% of all phones in the market, followed by 20%. 30% and so on.

[vinny41]

44 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

All your post serves to prove is nothing.

 

Say that effective from today, the only phone available for sale in Thailand is “Vinnies”. 100% of all phones sales are Vinnies. However, there are 60 million non Vinnies phones around. It will still take time for Vinnies phones to first be 10% of all phones in the market, followed by 20%. 30% and so on.

My Post shows that Norway still has a long away to go before every single private vehicle registered is an BEV or PHEV

[Pib]

On 10/6/2024 at 9:53 AM, Pib said:

When it comes to the Toyota solid state battery,  a new revolutionary combustion engine, or some other Toyota pie-in-the sky propaganda "which is just around the corner" it's all meant to keep current Toyota customers hanging on a little longer for that revolutionary Toyota  innovation/vehicle that always seems to be just around the corner...can now see it on the horizon...just hold on a little longer....etc.   

 

Toyota (and Honda) are really behind the EV vehicle curve and I think have made the business decision to put most of their plans it transitioning from "ICEV to Hybrid and then to EV".....they are simply not making the ICEV to EV jump....they are first taking an interim jump to Hybrid.  They see that as the best business decision and maybe it is.    

 

While I think Toyota makes excellent ICEVs (I still own a 2009 Fortuner I bought new but now my primary vehicle is a 2023 BYD EV)  Toyota is really dragging their feet in the transition to EVs and using tactics like advertising "revolutionary" propaganda to help mask their foot dragging (i.e., business decision).    But hey, it's their business...and it could very well be the best long term business decision to concentrate on selling Hybrids for now while they slowly catch-up in EV technology.  

 

Good ol' Toyota....below 4 Oct 2024 news article talks how Toyota will delay EV production in North America from 2025 to 2026.  A master of EV delay....new technology always just around a the corner....on the horizon.  But just hang in there a little longer Toyota customers who want a Toyota EV....in the meantime I'm sure Toyota recommends you buy a Toyota Hybrid while you wait for a Toyota EVs.  The article focuses on how "trade protectionism" in some countries/regions like the US and EU is impacting EV sales and prices.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Electric-vehicles/Toyota-s-EV-delay-reveals-price-of-protectionism-against-China?utm_source=paid.outbrain.com&utm_medium=content retargeting&utm_campaign=IC_broad_CORE&utm_content=RSSfeed&dicbo=v4-T8CWB0Z-1131228701-1

 

[KhunLA]

Did the govt incentive motivate me to buy a BEV ... HELL YEA

 

฿240K, although if it was only 100k or 150k, I might have passed on upgrading, as really like our present ICEV, as only  having 1.5 yrs, and same make/model as the BEV.    For me, spending more than ฿1M for transport is ding dong, as not really a car person, especially in retirement.   Actually, ฿949k was a stretch to justify, as just spending ฿695k, also a silly price, in my mind, to get from point A to B.  Sadly, the going price for anything in TH, that has any acceptable level of comfort.

 

The estimated 6 months from order to deliver, also gave me time to research and think about it, as like most, I was pretty ignorant about BEVs.   OK, not as much as most, but fine details/info, I lacked.  Even considered canceling the last month before receiving.

 

The first day, and during first O&A, questioned myself, hmm, was this a good idea.   Once use to everything, and driving ... Oh Hell Yea ... driving is fun again.  Now, as stated maybe 1 or 100 times, would never own a ICEV again.

 

Without the govt incentive, would probably have bought the same anyway, since the little price war going, and ฿599k would have been impossible to pass up.  The performance alone is worth the extra money, and of course, being a spiteful bastard, not support big oil ... that's priceless.

 

Govt incentive for BEV, is no different than the Excise Tax rebate, for ICEVs, back around 2011/12, which motivated us to upgrade at the time offered.   A bit of a coincidence, as would have been due for a trade up anyway within the next year or 2.   But done as soon as the rebate as offered.

 

Incentive here, rebate there, what's the difference.  Both version of products and energy to fuel them are all subsidized anyway.  Which means lower prices.   We pay for the subsidies anyway via taxes.   Just every now and then, they give a few baht back to us.

 

Gives us the warm & fuzzy feeling after being screwed for decades prior.   Timing and ability to take advantage of getting some of our money back is nice though.

 

Sort of like the 3 covid economic stimulus/assistance checks us Yanks got ... I wonder where the got the money for those 

Edited 3 hours ago by KhunLA

[JBChiangRai]

35 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

My Post shows that Norway still has a long away to go before every single private vehicle registered is an BEV or PHEV

It would help if you posted a balanced viewpoint Vinny.

 

Many of your posts lead the reader to an improper conclusion.

 

On a positive note, I am currently in Hong Kong, almost every other car is a Tesla.  BYD are here but not popular, my HK friend told me that HK people don’t like China/Chinese products.

 

I have also seen 3 of Toyota’s bZ4x, although it could be the same car on 3 different days.

 

I was in Phu Quoc last week, the only EV’s I saw were horrible VinFast.

[vinny41]

16 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

Most of the incentives you list have finished sometime ago, that doesn’t explain the 96.4% EV market share in September this year.

 

You mentioned the UK, in August the UK exceeded it’s target for the year of 22%, the UK is storming ahead with EV’s.

 

China, more than half of vehicles sold are EV’s.

 

Thailand approx 15% of new passenger vehicles are EV’s, new figures imminent.

 

People like EV’s, they prefer the superior driving experience.  That the driving experience is superior cannot be argued.

 

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

It would help if you posted a balanced viewpoint Vinny.

 

Many of your posts lead the reader to an improper conclusion.

 

On a positive note, I am currently in Hong Kong, almost every other car is a Tesla.  BYD are here but not popular, my HK friend told me that HK people don’t like China/Chinese products.

 

I have also seen 3 of Toyota’s bZ4x, although it could be the same car on 3 different days.

 

I was in Phu Quoc last week, the only EV’s I saw were horrible VinFast.

I must admit your unbalanced view of EV sales in the UK did bring a chuckle to my face

according to you UK will hit the 22% target  where the SMMT states that is likely the industry will miss that target for both new car sales (22%) and Van sales(10%)

UK SMMT has recently written a letter to Rachel Reeves MP Chancellor of the Exchequer
"So far this year, one in six new car buyers has chosen a ZEV.1 Volumes are up but market share is barely moving. The van transition is even more challenged – with ZEVs accounting for just one in 20 registrations.2 The ZEV mandate demands 22% of every brand’s new car sales and 10% of new van sales be zero emission in 2024. As an industry we will likely miss those targets and a significant number of brands face the prospect of either buying credits from another company or paying swingeing compliance payments. "
1 BEV share of YTD new car market 17.8% - prelim figures 2 BEV share of YTD new LCV market to 3.5T 4.8% - prelim figures

https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/UK-Auto-Open-letter-to-the-Chancellor-ZEV-incentives-call.pdf

[JBChiangRai]

10 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

 

I must admit your unbalanced view of EV sales in the UK did bring a chuckle to my face

according to you UK will hit the 22% target  where the SMMT states that is likely the industry will miss that target for both new car sales (22%) and Van sales(10%)

I never said the UK will hit the 22% target (I’m assuming you mean for the year?).

 

I said the UK recently exceeded the 22% target.  That happened in August, I think I posted that in full when the figures were released by the society of motor manufacturers and traders.

 

I don’t expect the UK to hit that for the year. 

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

My Post shows that Norway still has a long away to go before every single private vehicle registered is an BEV or PHEV

That's obvious. No one contests that. In fact, no one even brings this up, other than your good self.

[vinny41]

9 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I never said the UK will hit the 22% target (I’m assuming you mean for the year?).

 

I said the UK recently exceeded the 22% target.  That happened in August, I think I posted that in full when the figures were released by the society of motor manufacturers and traders.

 

I don’t expect the UK to hit that for the year. 

Thats the problem when you look at figures month by month instead of year 

In the Uk Decembe is one of the favourite months where manufacturer and dealers sell new cars to themselves as pre registration

On Auto Trader for 2022  used cars with less than 100 miles on vehicle

2022 69 less than 100 miles

27 petrol

1 diesel

32 electric

9 hybrid

On Auto Trader for 2023 used cars with less than 100 miles on vehicle

2023 726 less than 100 miles

327 Petrol

59 Diesel

219 Electric

120 Hybrid

1 Bi Fuel

On Auto Trader for 2024 used cars with less than 100 miles on vehicle

2024 6204 less than 100 miles

2,902 Petrol

629 Diesel

1,126 Electric

1,533 Hybrid

1 Bi Fuel

Expect a bumper month in December for pre sales

[Gweiloman]

16 hours ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

Many UK dealers are pre registering ev  cars as they are  obliged to sell a  set amount ( large fines) and arent meeting the targets, they are dumped on the second hand market, you can search many with just 100 miles or much  less  on, thus  "sales" arent real sales, electricity in China is also very cheap as with many Nordic  countries and Iceland its almost half of the UK price . Chinese are dumping cars in Thailand I guess at a  loss when I see 2-300 k off new evs  from some manufacturers. Im not arguing about  driving experience thats personal although  debatable as some say its hard to keep a constant speed unless cruise is  on, its either OFF or  ON that was a  good review I read of   the BYD SEAL recently. Norway has stated it wants to phase out diesel 2025 this  will increase the price of older diesel vehicles but then they will, be restricted by clean air zones. Its not really a choice because its  enviro friendly or a better experience id say its  solely down to cheap electricity and govt incentives.

 

Highlighted text above. That's really funny. Those who say that are either poor drivers and/or totally ignorant about regenerative braking. If set to high, the car does decelerate quickly, in some instances, bringing it to a complete sop. This is known as one pedal driving, a big plus of some EVs as it negates the need to use the friction brakes, extending its life and reducing maintenance costs. This feature ha multiple levels and can also be turned off completely if so desired.

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, Pib said:

 

Good ol' Toyota....below 4 Oct 2024 news article talks how Toyota will delay EV production in North America from 2025 to 2026.  A master of EV delay....new technology always just around a the corner....on the horizon.  But just hang in there a little longer Toyota customers who want a Toyota EV....in the meantime I'm sure Toyota recommends you buy a Toyota Hybrid while you wait for a Toyota EVs.  The article focuses on how "trade protectionism" in some countries/regions like the US and EU is impacting EV sales and prices.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Electric-vehicles/Toyota-s-EV-delay-reveals-price-of-protectionism-against-China?utm_source=paid.outbrain.com&utm_medium=content retargeting&utm_campaign=IC_broad_CORE&utm_content=RSSfeed&dicbo=v4-T8CWB0Z-1131228701-1

 

I think most of the brands that took part in EV 3.0 subsidy are praying that the Thai Goverment will offer them a lifeline

Total BEV sales to 30th September stands at 40,464

Under EV 3.0  84,195 imported vehicles in 2022 and 2023

66,448 imported in 2024

So to meet EV 3.0 brands have to locally build 84,195 based on 1 to 1 ratio those build have to compete with 66,448 imported in 2024 so total number of vehicles is 150,643

The Thai locally built vehicles can't be exported unless they meet the 40% local content rule

So we have 150,643 new vehicles of which 40.464 have been sold leaving 110,179 unsold

 

EV sector crisis as Chinese firms are trapped between lack of demand and government tax penalties

Thai EV crisis: Chinese firms struggle with overproduction and government tax penalties threat amid falling global demand.

With rising household debt and regulatory hurdles, manufacturers face tough choices—either ramp up production at a loss or repay hefty subsidies and waived import taxes on EV cars coming from China.  

Thailand’s brave new EV manufacturing world is in crisis. The sector, which has seen Chinese firms invest billions, is now suffering a market glut as demand for EV cars, both in Thailand and across the world except for China, falls. This year has seen the industry tilt decisively towards HEV or hybrid vehicles. At this time, it is being reported that Chinese firms in Thailand are holding urgent talks with the Chinese Embassy in Bangkok. The firms are bound under Thailand’s 3.0 and 3.5 incentive schemes to ramp up production to match the number of imported vehicles here. However, unable to find export markets for the cars, they are left with a vast dilemma: either manufacture cars that no one wants or pay back subsidies and import tax waivers with penalties on each imported car to the Thai government. Something has to give either on one side or the other

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2024/09/16/ev-sector-crisis-as-chinese-firms-are-trapped-between-lack-of-demand-and-government-tax-penalties/

[JBChiangRai]

23 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Thats the problem when you look at figures month by month instead of year 

In the Uk Decembe is one of the favourite months where manufacturer and dealers sell new cars to themselves as pre registration

On Auto Trader for 2022  used cars with less than 100 miles on vehicle

2022 69 less than 100 miles

27 petrol

1 diesel

32 electric

9 hybrid

On Auto Trader for 2023 used cars with less than 100 miles on vehicle

2023 726 less than 100 miles

327 Petrol

59 Diesel

219 Electric

120 Hybrid

1 Bi Fuel

On Auto Trader for 2024 used cars with less than 100 miles on vehicle

2024 6204 less than 100 miles

2,902 Petrol

629 Diesel

1,126 Electric

1,533 Hybrid

1 Bi Fuel

Expect a bumper month in December for pre sales

I like to look at monthly figures every month and annual figures every year.  
 

In particular, I’m interested in trends.

 

The trend of vehicles sold tells me the overall state of the market.  I don’t think anyone would argue 2024 sees the whole industry in trouble.

 

Comparing YTD EV absolute sales numbers (say) to the same period last year would tell you that either EV demand has crashed, or that the entire auto market is in trouble.

 

To decide which, you have to see what’s happening to ICE sales and market share gives the full picture.

[JBChiangRai]

8 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I think most of the brands that took part in EV 3.0 subsidy are praying that the Thai Goverment will offer them a lifeline

Total BEV sales to 30th September stands at 40,464

Under EV 3.0  84,195 imported vehicles in 2022 and 2023

66,448 imported in 2024

So to meet EV 3.0 brands have to locally build 84,195 based on 1 to 1 ratio those build have to compete with 66,448 imported in 2024 so total number of vehicles is 150,643

The Thai locally built vehicles can't be exported unless they meet the 40% local content rule

So we have 150,643 new vehicles of which 40.464 have been sold leaving 110,179 unsold

 

EV sector crisis as Chinese firms are trapped between lack of demand and government tax penalties

Thai EV crisis: Chinese firms struggle with overproduction and government tax penalties threat amid falling global demand.

With rising household debt and regulatory hurdles, manufacturers face tough choices—either ramp up production at a loss or repay hefty subsidies and waived import taxes on EV cars coming from China.  

Thailand’s brave new EV manufacturing world is in crisis. The sector, which has seen Chinese firms invest billions, is now suffering a market glut as demand for EV cars, both in Thailand and across the world except for China, falls. This year has seen the industry tilt decisively towards HEV or hybrid vehicles. At this time, it is being reported that Chinese firms in Thailand are holding urgent talks with the Chinese Embassy in Bangkok. The firms are bound under Thailand’s 3.0 and 3.5 incentive schemes to ramp up production to match the number of imported vehicles here. However, unable to find export markets for the cars, they are left with a vast dilemma: either manufacture cars that no one wants or pay back subsidies and import tax waivers with penalties on each imported car to the Thai government. Something has to give either on one side or the other

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2024/09/16/ev-sector-crisis-as-chinese-firms-are-trapped-between-lack-of-demand-and-government-tax-penalties/

 I’m hoping to see no bailout but new EV prices to be slashed.

 

I’m  in the market for another EV for my youngest daughter to replace her Suzuki Ciaz.

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 I’m hoping to see no bailout but new EV prices to be slashed.

 

I’m  in the market for another EV for my youngest daughter to replace her Suzuki Ciaz.

Personally I think the Goverment given the state of the market/economy should offer the brands  if they want they can delay 50,000 of the  84,195 into 2026 or 2027 but on condition that local content will be a minimum of 80% when they start building again

Most of the various facebook groups are hoping for a huge price reductions during the December or March motorshows I can't it happening myself

I also expect that Byd will postpone launch of blade 2 battery until one of their competitors launches a similar battery with 1,000km range and 30% cheaper

[Pib]

Here's a much of monthly and quarterly stats for BYD Jan-Sep 2024 sales and also previous years....stats summary statements quoted below.  And see the China New Energy Vehicle (NEV)  Post weblink at bottom for a bunch of  BYD sales charts where on a "long term" basis (i.e., annual) all are heading north.

 

Year-to-date performance

In the January-September period, BYD's NEV sales amounted to 2,747,875 units, up 32.13 percent year-on-year.

 

Its passenger NEVs sold 2,736,401 units in January-September, up 32.18 percent year-on-year.

Commercial NEVs sold 11,474 units in the first nine months, up 22.28 percent year-on-year.

 

BYD's passenger BEVs sold 164,956 units in January-September, up 11.56 percent year-on-year.

Passenger PHEVs sold 1,566,822 units in January-September, up 53.33 percent year-on-year.

 

BYD sold 297,881 units overseas in January-September, up 104.7 percent year-on-year.

 

BYD's installed capacity of power and energy storage batteries amounted to about 127.720 GWh in January-September, up 26.54 percent year-on-year.

 

See below weblink for complete article with lots of charts.

https://cnevpost.com/2024/10/01/byd-sales-sept-2024/