Thailand is unlikely to lockdown again or close its borders despite increased infections

[webfact]

 

By Cod Satrusayang

 

Despite increasing covid infection numbers due to the Omicron variant, Thailand is unlikely reimplement a nationwide lockdown or close its borders to international travelers, a senior doctor told Thai Enquirer on Thursday.

 

Covid numbers have climbed back over 10,000 cases per day over the past week with the daily death toll approaching some 20 fatalities per day. On Thursday, that number shot up to 14,822 new cases, fueled mainly by the highly infectious Omicron variant.

 

Though the infection numbers will likely continue to grow higher, doctors say that the death toll should remain low thanks in part to the country’s vaccination number. The country has now vaccinated 70 per cent of the population with at least two doses. The number of booster doses administered also continues to climb daily.

 

Discover Cigna’s range of health insurance solutions created for expats and local nationals living in Thailand - click to view

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-02-10

 

- Aetna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[Pouatchee]

Hmmmm good idea! With all the new falang tourists coming soon and going straight to quarantine to bring back the medical tourism, sounds like a plan hatched out by a team of geniuses. Unfortunate for the unsuspecting tourists.

[Whale]

Unless theres a "political" need.

[KhunLA]

I think the last 2 yrs has proved, flip flopping is a new international sport.

 

Expect nothing else in the future.

[kotsak]

Ok guys, buckle up.. ????

[wombat]

Do i smell the word 'endemic' getting closer to the Gazette?

[daveAustin]

Unlikely but who knows with the robots with an agenda running the show. 

[JonnyF]

Unless the street protests start again of course.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The country has now vaccinated 70 per cent of the population with at least two doses. The number of booster doses administered also continues to climb daily.

WOO HOO!!!

 

So the official stats say the government has finally met their original goal from a year back of getting 70% of the population "fully vaccinated" --  meaning two shots. The current official MoPH figure is 70.5%, but only 24.2% for people who've received the third shot that medical experts say is necessary with Omicron.

 

And, of course, the ones who got their original two shots early in 2021 by now have seen the effectiveness of those vaccines wane/decline, especially in regard to preventing infection, but some also in preventing serious illness. And then even more, the Sinovac vaccine the government used on many has been shown to be the least effective of the major COVID vaccines.

 

In short, time has passed and the pandemic circumstances have changed, with Omicron being a very different variant (much more transmissible, but less severe illness overall) since Thailand set its original goal.  These days, the medical authorities are advising that THREE good doses, preferably with mRNA vaccines, are what's needed to combat Omicron.  And Thailand is nowhere close in that regard.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/501086438176352/?type=3

 

It's also worth noting, if you look at the MoPH chart from today posted above, the fifth line down in blue shows the current vaccination rates for older folks 60 and above -- the most COVID vulnerable group -- LESS THAN 70% at only 62.2% with two shots and only 20% with three shots.  That's  not a good situation.

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Meanwhile, the "official" COVID case numbers for Thailand are trending upward, even with presumably many people self-testing and keeping it to themselves. Almost 15,000 new official cases reported in the past day, plus another 7,700+ positive ATK tests that are presumed positives.

 

 

 

"The news comes as Thailand’s daily Covid-19 infections could possibly reach 30,000 cases by the end of February and could affect activities during the upcoming Songkran festival..."

...

"Dr. Chakrarat Pittayawonganon, Director of the Bureau of Epidemiology under the Public Health Ministry, gave an interview this afternoon that the Covid-19 situation assessment around the world proved that foreign countries in Europe and America are in a downtrend of the outbreak with less infections while many countries in Asia, including Thailand, is in an uptrend with higher numbers of cases."

 

Just for context, I believe Thailand peaked at about 25,000 cases per day and up to 300 deaths last fall, before the numbers then started to decline. Right now, we're at 20 official COVID deaths per day, whereas the road deaths daily average is about 50.  But with COVID, where are we going from here?  Another upcoming repeat of mid-last year's wave?

 

Today's update from MoPH -- about 105,000 people nationwide under treatment for COVID, about 50,000 hospitalized and more than 50,000 in field hospitals, hospitels or other alternnate facilities. 563 in serious condition, and 114 on ventilators because of COVID:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/501085981509731/?type=3

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[sleepwalker999]

Once it gets over 30k a day the panic will set in and we're back to full on lockdown

[wensiensheng]

In all seriousness, why is a doctor opining on what Covid measures the country’s politicians might take? He is a doctor, maybe knows about medical stuff, he has no idea what the government might decide to do. They barely know themselves from one day to another.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Despite increasing covid infection numbers due to the Omicron variant, Thailand is unlikely reimplement a nationwide lockdown or close its borders to international travelers, a senior doctor told Thai Enquirer on Thursday.

So why the continued "State of Emergency"

Rhetorical.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, KhunLA said:

I think the last 2 yrs has proved, flip flopping is a new international sport.

 

Expect nothing else in the future.

If it was an Olympic sport Thailand would get Gold, Silver & Bronze

[ThaiAl]

Asking myself about the real infection numbers. In Switzerland when the official numbers were 30K/day, goverment assume the real situation will be near 100K.
What it well be in Thailand? 100K or 200K?

[newnative]

Good.

[BayArea]

" Unlikely" which means most likely in LOS. 

[DavisH]

8 hours ago, sleepwalker999 said:

Once it gets over 30k a day the panic will set in and we're back to full on lockdown

It will depend on the situation in hospitals. If the number of serious and ventilated patients stay modest, I don't see any major lockdown coming. 

[DavisH]

6 hours ago, ThaiAl said:

Asking myself about the real infection numbers. In Switzerland when the official numbers were 30K/day, goverment assume the real situation will be near 100K.
What it well be in Thailand? 100K or 200K?

Noone cares about the number of cases anymore. It's not a useful metric. 

[arithai12]

8 hours ago, ThaiAl said:

Asking myself about the real infection numbers. In Switzerland when the official numbers were 30K/day, goverment assume the real situation will be near 100K.
What it well be in Thailand? 100K or 200K?

Personally, I am not very interested to know how many 100K's are infected with no symptoms or have a headache.

I find it good that the gov't will (when?) announce only deaths and serious cases. I hope they do so with accompanying info on vaccination status, age and pre-conditions.

[rabang]

10 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

WOO HOO!!!

 

So the official stats say the government has finally met their original goal from a year back of getting 70% of the population "fully vaccinated" --  meaning two shots. The current official MoPH figure is 70.5%, but only 24.2% for people who've received the third shot that medical experts say is necessary with Omicron.

 

And, of course, the ones who got their original two shots early in 2021 by now have seen the effectiveness of those vaccines wane/decline, especially in regard to preventing infection, but some also in preventing serious illness. And then even more, the Sinovac vaccine the government used on many has been shown to be the least effective of the major COVID vaccines.

 

In short, time has passed and the pandemic circumstances have changed, with Omicron being a very different variant (much more transmissible, but less severe illness overall) since Thailand set its original goal.  These days, the medical authorities are advising that THREE good doses, preferably with mRNA vaccines, are what's needed to combat Omicron.  And Thailand is nowhere close in that regard.

 

 

 

 

 

Hardly anyone is, and it is not even necessary except for risk groups. Chasing those eternal booster goals would be a neverending story.

[RobU]

Yebbut will they remove the Thailand Pass, will they stop the rip off hotel isolation of foreigners who test positive without symptoms.

[nattaya09]

No need to close the borders when the disincentives are already in place to deter tourist travel into the Kingdom

[NoshowJones]

19 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Unless the street protests start again of course.

They will, the more the better, and the best of luck to them, as long as they do it peacefully.

[NoshowJones]

6 hours ago, RobU said:

Yebbut will they remove the Thailand Pass, will they stop the rip off hotel isolation of foreigners who test positive without symptoms.

and what about the insurance scams? Will they do away with them when the 300Bt entry into Thailand starts as it is supposed to help with these insurance claims? I know, silly question.

[ThaiAl]

16 hours ago, arithai12 said:

Personally, I am not very interested to know how many 100K's are infected with no symptoms or have a headache.

I find it good that the gov't will (when?) announce only deaths and serious cases. I hope they do so with accompanying info on vaccination status, age and pre-conditions.

I agree absolutely with you. I am more concerned with the credibility of the published data.

[Stargeezr]

I hope that Thailand is more open to tourism by November, or December 2022.

  Hey did any one refuse to get the small pox vaccine, or TB, or Polio, or Typhoid?

My how times have changed.  I just hope that the people of Africa and other places that really need

the vaccines will all get enough and will be willing to take it, especially when many places have

had a lot of people die.  Has anyone, headed for Brazil, or India for a vaca lately?

  Just curious.

[jacko45k]

Good... now about the existing restrictions!