I just bought $200,000 of Bitcoin

[Sparktrader]

14 minutes ago, shdmn said:

Today I shall mitigate my risk by putting it all on red, because that is what worked yesterday.

Thats mumbo jumbo logic. There is no science behind it.

 

If you dont know  the difference between research and gambling we can help you.

 

Bitcoin doesnt go up by chance neither do houses or BHP. They are driven by quality of assets, use cases, appeal to the masses.

 

If there are more buyers than sellers at 50,000 the asset goes up.

 

 

[Walker88]

1 hour ago, Sparktrader said:

Say a method has a 63% win rate. Thats a 13% edge over even luck. Many strategies like ma crossovers etc are like that. Traders who follow the rules win. Most people cant follow rules which is why they lose.

 

Google the Turtle Traders. 

Anything that once worked, like ma crossovers, work now according to random chance.  In other words, like darts thrown by a monkey. Lots of folks built AI systems based on 'what used to work'. Of course, they don't work anymore.

 

I spent a career as a hedge fund manager. What works best is luck. Second is discipline. Third is setting a goal and sticking to it, which means leaving the industry when the bank balance is at the goal. Save for one or two guys (Soros, Drunkenmiller, maybe Ray Dalio, Shaw), the market eventually discredits everybody who overstays his welcome. Ideally, one has enough money under management by then so that the management fee alone pays the bills. Also, lots of guys who work off a % of gains will simply close the fund if it's down, then re-open a new fund, which sets things back to zero, so that the next win gives them the 'performance fee'.

 

Another trick:  trading OTC products are easy to abuse, because there is no exchange to get a 'market price'. In 2008, when lots of folks had opposing sides of OTC trades and structured products like CDSs, it was not uncommon for BOTH sides to claim a paper profit at the same time. When a performance fee is based on the aggregate of positions closed plus marked to market, 'everybody's a winner'.

 

Many folks have left the industry because things have gotten weird. Guys like Paul Jones, while still in, don't do anywhere as well as he used to do. Of course, with a 10-figure net worth, winning or losing isn't going to impact his lifestyle.  The Turtle founder (Richard Dennis), gave up a long time ago when his 'system' didn't quite work as well.

 

Like I said, #1 is luck.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Walker88

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, Walker88 said:

Anything that once worked, like ma crossovers, work now according to random chance.  In other words, like darts thrown by a monkey. Lots of folks built AI systems based on 'what used to work'. Of course, they don't work anymore.

 

I spent a career as a hedge fund manager. What works best is luck. Second is discipline. Third is setting a goal and sticking to it, which means leaving the industry when the bank balance is at the goal. Save for one or two guys (Soros, Drunkenmiller, maybe Ray Dalio, Shaw), the market eventually discredits everybody who overstays his welcome. Ideally, one has enough money under management by then so that the management fee alone pays the bills. Also, lots of guys who work off a % of gains will simply close the fund if it's down, then re-open a new fund, which sets things back to zero, so that the next win gives them the 'performance fee'.

 

Another trick:  trading OTC products are easy to abuse, because there is no exchange to get a 'market price'. In 2008, when lots of folks had opposing sides of OTC trades and structured products like CDSs, it was not uncommon for BOTH sides to claim a paper profit at the same time. When a. performance fee is based on the aggregate of positions closed plus marked to market, 'everybody's a winner'.

Rubbish. Indicators like macd, crossovers, donchian work the same most years. 

 

St signals are hit and miss. Lt signals miss the early part but are right more often.

 

Most people cant follow rules. The Turtle study proved it. They made money under rules. Afterwards they couldnt stick to it.

 

 

[Walker88]

Just now, Sparktrader said:

Rubbish. Indicators like macd, crossovers, donchian work the same most years. 

 

St signals are hit and miss. Lt signals miss the early part but are right more often.

 

Most people cant follow rules. The Turtle study proved it. They made money under rules. Afterwards they couldnt stick to it.

 

 

Then go ahead and become a billionaire.  What you note are what amateurs use. You would be laughed out of Bridgewater or Tudor if you brought that up.

[bendejo]

8 hours ago, sirineou said:

As far as I can tell , it is pyramid scheme dependent on the greater fool theory, 

Schemes like that work well until there is no greater fool and you are the greater fool. 

The job is now to pump it up and get others to invest, driving the hopes price up.

In the U.S. crypto is being mass-marketed to the "Joe Sixpack" types via sports events etc.  Some sorry souls who don't even understand how compound interest works are going to put their $$$ in it.  And that could bode well for those that ride the the wave and bail out when it peaks.  Of course, you won't know when it will be peaking until afterwards when it crashes, like the stock market did in 2001.

 

And then there is converting the crypto currency into actual money, not quite as simple as exchanging foreign currencies: ask any of the people who talk up crypto how this will be done and you will get either an oversimplified answer or something that may not make very much sense.  And then there are all the different coins that are not interchangeable, good luck with that.  Just because "crypto is up today" does not mean it pertains to the particular coin you hold.

 

Imagine going into a shop, picking up an item that costs $9; you give the storekeeper a $10 note, and he takes a piece of paper and draws a piece of currency with a marked value of $1.  "What's this?"  He tells you it is his own scrip, you can spend it in his shop whenever you like.  In fact, sensing your reluctance, he says "I'll make it $2!  If you give me another $10 I'll give you 20!"  And so on.

 

Caveat emptor.

 

[Sparktrader]

Donchian plus dma nailed the last 4 btc bull markets. Got around 70% of the move each time.

 

It called a buy at 39k. Lets see where the exit is and calculate return

 

[shdmn]

Bitcoin is like the Seinfeld of investing.  It's value is based on nothing.

Edited February 15, 2022 by shdmn

[Walker88]

I knew the folks at LTCM. 'Geniuses'. A Nobel Prize winner. A couple of them were my professors. I didn't join them. They had the wrong attitude.

 

BOOM!

 

Their losses almost brought the system down, as in the world's financial system. Nobody learned from that, because a decade later 2008 and Synthetic CDO Squareds with CDS Yield Enhancement kickers happened.

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, Walker88 said:

Then go ahead and become a billionaire.  What you note are what amateurs use. You would be laughed out of Bridgewater or Tudor if you brought that up.

Silly logic. You cant turn 5k into billons. Most rich people had millions to start with.

 

Easy to make $500m starting with $400m.

 

Most fund managers are hopeless. Ive met dozens of them. About 5% are impressive.

 

Give me $400m i invest in cba and bhp for 10 years make a $1bn. Am i smart? Nope thats easy.

 

Turning 5k into $1m is hard.

[Sparktrader]

3 minutes ago, shdmn said:

Bitcoin is like the Seinfeld of investing.  It's value is based on nothing.

Fiat is based on nothing.

[Walker88]

4 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Donchian plus dma nailed the last 4 btc bull markets. Got around 70% of the move each time.

 

It called a buy at 39k. Lets see where the exit is and calculate return

 

Well then you'll be a billionaire. I'm happy with a decimal point less.

 

To each his own.

[Sparktrader]

11 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Then go ahead and become a billionaire.  What you note are what amateurs use. You would be laughed out of Bridgewater or Tudor if you brought that up.

11.5% return last 28 years bridgewater.

 

I made 600% on some shares. 

 

Easy to make 600% on small blocks. Fund manages invest $bns so returns are low.

 

Give me $1bn im buying large stocks. You cant put $200m into a small cap.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Sparktrader

[Sparktrader]

8 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I knew the folks at LTCM. 'Geniuses'. A Nobel Prize winner. A couple of them were my professors. I didn't join them. They had the wrong attitude.

 

BOOM!

 

Their losses almost brought the system down, as in the world's financial system. Nobody learned from that, because a decade later 2008 and Synthetic CDO Squareds with CDS Yield Enhancement kickers happened.

Whats that got to do with bitcoin?

[Sparktrader]

11.5% return for average folk is lousy.

Bhp is offering 8% plus div yield alone

Btc 300% last year

Property up 30%

 

Why would average folk want 11.5%  with some pompous fund manager?

 

Take off fees they get 10%. Get 12% in btc in 1 week lol

 

If you born with rich daddy you get $200m you get 11.5% fine, average folk thats a waste of time.

 

 

 

[shdmn]

It's curious why you always see these anonymous internet people bragging about how much money they are making on random forums when they could be sailing around the world on their private yacht fully stocked with supermodels.

Edited February 15, 2022 by shdmn

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, shdmn said:

It's funny how all these people seem to have so much time to brag about how much money they have on random forums instead of sailing around the world on their private yacht fully stocked with supermodels.

Who is bragging?

 

 

[shdmn]

3 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Who is bragging?

 

 

I am not talking about you.  I am talking about people who manage to sound somewhat credible.

Edited February 15, 2022 by shdmn

[Walker88]

15 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

 

Turning 5k into $1m is hard.

I'll give you two instances where that happened. In fact, these two---from memory, because I traded both---dwarf even btc's run from $100 to it's peak at $69K (which took a decade).

 

Oct 6, 1987 to mid-morning Oct 20, 1987. S&P Futures puts. In those two weeks the value rose, not 1000%, but 1000 times.

 

Late Dec 1989 to late Jan 1990. Nikkei Futures puts. Also went up over 1000 times.

 

The first I traded as an individual, the second as a fund manager. I had nowhere near the position I would have liked to have had, but the return was still massive.

 

You might be able to find the historical data online. I have it in one of my old computers.

[happydreamer]

22 minutes ago, shdmn said:

Bitcoin is like the Seinfeld of investing.  It's value is based on nothing.

It's actually closely tied to the market now.  Read my previous post about cashing out in 2017 and financing two years of life abroad .  Then tell me I imagined it.

 

Just admit you know nothing about it and aren't will ing to learn from people who do

[Sparktrader]

5 minutes ago, shdmn said:

It's curious why you always see these anonymous internet people bragging about how much money they are making on random forums when they could be sailing around the world on their private yacht fully stocked with supermodels.

Private yacht 20m

Super models $5m

 

The 200k in btc would need to grow 125 times

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, shdmn said:

I am not talking about you.  I am talking about people who manage to sound somewhat credible.

You sound like a gambler.

[happydreamer]

8 minutes ago, shdmn said:

It's curious why you always see these anonymous internet people bragging about how much money they are making on random forums when they could be sailing around the world on their private yacht fully stocked with supermodels.

Cuz were busy trading

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I'll give you two instances where that happened. In fact, these two---from memory, because I traded both---dwarf even btc's run from $100 to it's peak at $69K (which took a decade).

 

Oct 6, 1987 to mid-morning Oct 20, 1987. S&P Futures puts. In those two weeks the value rose, not 1000%, but 1000 times.

 

Late Dec 1989 to late Jan 1990. Nikkei Futures puts. Also went up over 1000 times.

 

The first I traded as an individual, the second as a fund manager. I had nowhere near the position I would have liked to have had, but the return was still massive.

 

You might be able to find the historical data online. I have it in one of my old computers.

87 crash puts useful. Chart said sell. Cant predict crash though.

[Sparktrader]

4 minutes ago, shdmn said:

I am not talking about you.  I am talking about people who manage to sound somewhat credible.

Go read some books, turtles, mark miniverni, mark douglas

 

Trading in the Zone is a great book.

[happydreamer]

31 minutes ago, bendejo said:

 

 

And then there is converting the crypto currency into actual money, not quite as simple as exchanging foreign currencies: ask any of the people who talk up crypto how this will be done and you will get either an oversimplified answer or something that may not make very much sense.  And then there are all the different coins that are not interchangeable, good luck with that.  Just because "crypto is up today" does not mean it pertains to the particular coin you hold.

 

 

It's actually quite simple. You sell it on an exchange for fiat.  At the end of the year you get an imaginary tax form that you're required to pay imaginary tax on 

 

I think you're confusing trading crypto pairs with selling crypto for fiat.

[Chelseafan]

9 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

You don't lose all your money when you buy land.

 

I have, It's in my wifes name ????

 

[Sparktrader]

Lets track this

Entry 39,000

Exit.....

 

Currently up 13.2%

[Meat Pie 47]

Well I just bought 12 bottles of wine for 400.000 AUD at a auction

[Sparktrader]

50 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Anything that once worked, like ma crossovers, work now according to random chance.  In other words, like darts thrown by a monkey. Lots of folks built AI systems based on 'what used to work'. Of course, they don't work anymore.

 

I spent a career as a hedge fund manager. What works best is luck. Second is discipline. Third is setting a goal and sticking to it, which means leaving the industry when the bank balance is at the goal. Save for one or two guys (Soros, Drunkenmiller, maybe Ray Dalio, Shaw), the market eventually discredits everybody who overstays his welcome. Ideally, one has enough money under management by then so that the management fee alone pays the bills. Also, lots of guys who work off a % of gains will simply close the fund if it's down, then re-open a new fund, which sets things back to zero, so that the next win gives them the 'performance fee'.

 

Another trick:  trading OTC products are easy to abuse, because there is no exchange to get a 'market price'. In 2008, when lots of folks had opposing sides of OTC trades and structured products like CDSs, it was not uncommon for BOTH sides to claim a paper profit at the same time. When a performance fee is based on the aggregate of positions closed plus marked to market, 'everybody's a winner'.

 

Many folks have left the industry because things have gotten weird. Guys like Paul Jones, while still in, don't do anywhere as well as he used to do. Of course, with a 10-figure net worth, winning or losing isn't going to impact his lifestyle.  The Turtle founder (Richard Dennis), gave up a long time ago when his 'system' didn't quite work as well.

 

Like I said, #1 is luck.

Turtle system works well in some markets not not all. Choppy stocks wont work. Btc has clear bull n bear markets so ideal.

 

Same with ema crossovers. You need clear trends. Choppy stocks just stopped out.

 

I think eth and btc are easier to pick than most shares due to the trends.

 

You also need a filter to reduce false signals. A longer term dma helps.

 

I spent a year looking at indicators most weeks. The dma is best imo. Far less false signals on lt setting yet early enough.

[Sparktrader]

31 minutes ago, happydreamer said:

It's actually closely tied to the market now.  Read my previous post about cashing out in 2017 and financing two years of life abroad .  Then tell me I imagined it.

 

Just admit you know nothing about it and aren't will ing to learn from people who do

Critics everywhere. Reminds me of David Goggins quote , they cant do it so they project onto others. If you cant run 100 miles doesnt mean humans cant