Assault on Kiev: Russian helicopters swoop above Ukraine's capital

[onthedarkside]

Full 44 minute video with Richard Moore from above:

 

Watch: MI6 boss Richard Moore on global security, Ukraine war and impact of AI | POLITICO

 

[rudi49jr]

Apparently, Igor Girkin (or Strelkov) was arrested, and his present whereabouts are unknown. 
 

Good. I hope they lock this SOB up and he spends the rest of his miserable life somewhere in a Gulag in Siberia.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-claim-girkin-arrested/

[ballpoint]

Following Russia's declaration that any ships carrying grain from Ukraine will be legitimate targets, Ukraine has countered by saying that they'll consider any Russian bound ships to be the same:

 

"The (Ukrainian) Defense Ministry said on July 20 that from midnight of July 21, all vessels on the Black Sea heading toward Russian or Russia-occupied ports will be treated as carrying military cargo "with all associated risks."

"The Russian Federation has once again brutally violated the universal right to free navigation for the whole world and is deliberately undermining food security, condemning millions of people to starvation," the statement said.

The ministry noted that the Kremlin has turned the Black Sea into a danger zone by threatening civilian vessels and trade routes and attacking civilian infrastructure in cities."

 

Defense Ministry: Vessels heading to Russia-controlled Black Sea ports to be considered military targets (kyivindependent.com)

 

 

Russia's threat to civilian shipping could well backfire on them, according to one commentator:

 

"The threat to sink commercial shipping marks an escalation that can only be carried out under a state of declared war, said Tanya Grodzinski, a naval historian at the Royal Military College in Kingston, Ont. That's something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been anxious to avoid, opting instead to present his war on Ukraine as a "special military operation."" 

 

In addition, no Russian naval vessels have been able to enter the Black Sea since Turkey shut off the Bosporus, and its Baltic fleet is entirely surrounded by NATO countries.  By officially jacking up the status of its "special military operation" to a war, it could be making a target of its sitting ducks in the Black and Baltic Seas.  And good luck with getting the Pacific fleet all the way there from Vladivostok.  (As a figure of speech. No good luck is wished on any of the Russian military arms).

 

NATO's latest moves could bottle up much of Russia's naval power | CBC News

 

 

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by ballpoint

[Mavideol]

some time ago I called Belarus (sia)  as part of Russian territory and not an independent country, I guess back then I was already seeing the writing on the wall  555

Russia-Ukraine war – live: Putin gives chilling warning to Poland as Moscow ready to defend Belarus

Moscow would react to any aggression against Belarus, which forms a loose “Union State” with Russia, “with all the means at our disposal”, Putin told a meeting of his Security Council in televised remarks.

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-041617229.html

 

[Bkk Brian]

On 7/21/2023 at 6:54 PM, rudi49jr said:

Apparently, Igor Girkin (or Strelkov) was arrested, and his present whereabouts are unknown. 
 

Good. I hope they lock this SOB up and he spends the rest of his miserable life somewhere in a Gulag in Siberia.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-claim-girkin-arrested/

Update on that, his whereabouts are well and truly known now. He's in a Russian court facing trial. Igor Girkin was of course sentenced to life last year by the Hague for the murders of 298 innocent people onboard MH17. 

 

We now have the Russian murderers prosecuting one of their own murderers.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Putin’s purge of allies shows he came closer to being toppled than anyone realized

 

Girkin is one more former close ally of Putin who finds himself either arrested, missing or very dead courtesy of a window, a cup of tea, or the ever-popular “heart attack.”

 

For Putin’s allies, the Ukrainian sunflower is proving to be a Venus flytrap, whose golden petals may yet come even to devour Putin himself. The war has badly weakened and destabilized Putin’s regime, as Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed “march for justice” showed last month. 

 

 

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/4109972-putins-purge-of-allies-shows-he-came-closer-to-being-toppled-than-anyone-realized/

Edited July 23, 2023 by metisdead
Edited as per fair use policy.

[rudi49jr]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Update on that, his whereabouts are well and truly known now. He's in a Russian court facing trial. Igor Girkin was of course sentenced to life last year by the Hague for the murders of 298 innocent people onboard MH17. 

 

We now have the Russian murderers prosecuting one of their own murderers.

 

 

We now have the Russian murderers prosecuting one of their own murderers.

 

True, but not because he’s a mass murderer, but because he kept p!issing off Putin. That’s okay, though, just as long as they lock this POS up for the rest of his life, preferably doing forced labor.

[Mavideol]

it's getting harder for the Orcs, more to come, next the Crimea bridge.... keep going Ukraine, kick their arrrrsssesssss

Russia-Ukraine war – live: Ukrainian drone ‘blasts munitions depot in Crimea’

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelensky-083934304.html

Volodymyr Zelensky says Crimea bridge is ‘legitimate military target’

https://au.yahoo.com/news/volodymyr-zelensky-says-crimea-bridge-162514024.html

[ThailandRyan]

Seems as if Zelensky and the Ukraine military are doing an end round on the Russians and stopping there ability to retreat, while also setting up an attack and forward push to obtain a  return of the annexed territories that Putin has claimed.  You have to love the way Putin phrases things such as "Terrorist Attack" when he has launched an all out war on the Ukraine while calling it a "Special Operation".  I think turnabout is fair play and the bully is getting his rear end kicked by the small kid on the block who he was set on disenfranchising.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66218869

 

Vladimir Putin has vowed to retaliate following a "terrorist" attack on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia.

 

Moscow has blamed Ukraine for the incident - which left two people dead - but Kyiv has not officially said it was responsible.

 

The Kerch bridge was opened in 2018 and enables road and rail travel between Russia and Crimea - Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia in 2014.

[sirineou]

15 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Seems as if Zelensky and the Ukraine military are doing an end round on the Russians and stopping there ability to retreat, while also setting up an attack and forward push to obtain a  return of the annexed territories that Putin has

I am not sure where you are getting your information. According to all exerts the counteroffensive is not going very well for Ukraine, , last estimate I heard they have lost 20% of their forces, and have only reclaimed 8 out of 86km . 

The reason why cluster munitions are being send there is because they are running out of Artillery ammunition and the production infrastructure can not keep pace with their need . In the meantime Russia has huge stockpiles .  

   Every international affairs expert I have listen too has said that this war  could last for a long time, and would probably end with Ukraine losing the Donbas territories and Crimean Peninsula..

All of the below are credible well respected sources 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrKjgeCUAZA&t=139s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bIdcu0o9Pc&t=9s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ

 

[rudi49jr]

39 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I am not sure where you are getting your information. According to all exerts the counteroffensive is not going very well for Ukraine, , last estimate I heard they have lost 20% of their forces, and have only reclaimed 8 out of 86km . 

The reason why cluster munitions are being send there is because they are running out of Artillery ammunition and the production infrastructure can not keep pace with their need . In the meantime Russia has huge stockpiles .  

   Every international affairs expert I have listen too has said that this war  could last for a long time, and would probably end with Ukraine losing the Donbas territories and Crimean Peninsula..

All of the below are credible well respected sources 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrKjgeCUAZA&t=139s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bIdcu0o9Pc&t=9s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ

 

There maybe hope yet, though:

 

“Knives out: How Putin’s powerful inner circle dubbed ‘The Ozeros’ are plotting to topple him to finally end Ukraine war”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/23081740/putin-powerful-inner-circle-ozeros-plot-topple-him/

 

I’m not sure how credible this is, but if it is true and they do succeed in ousting Putin and ending the war in Ukraine, that would be very good news. 

 

[Jingthing]

12 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

There maybe hope yet, though:

 

“Knives out: How Putin’s powerful inner circle dubbed ‘The Ozeros’ are plotting to topple him to finally end Ukraine war”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/23081740/putin-powerful-inner-circle-ozeros-plot-topple-him/

 

I’m not sure how credible this is, but if it is true and they do succeed in ousting Putin and ending the war in Ukraine, that would be very good news. 

 

Putin is definitely on his way out, but the timing is of course unknown.

Russia will need a scapegoat for the war disaster.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

I am not sure where you are getting your information. According to all exerts the counteroffensive is not going very well for Ukraine, , last estimate I heard they have lost 20% of their forces, and have only reclaimed 8 out of 86km . 

The reason why cluster munitions are being send there is because they are running out of Artillery ammunition and the production infrastructure can not keep pace with their need . In the meantime Russia has huge stockpiles .  

   Every international affairs expert I have listen too has said that this war  could last for a long time, and would probably end with Ukraine losing the Donbas territories and Crimean Peninsula..

All of the below are credible well respected sources 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrKjgeCUAZA&t=139s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bIdcu0o9Pc&t=9s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ

 

Ye of little faith. When you start posting vids with the likes of John Mearsheimer as their expert then its little wonder you form these views.

 

The facts are that Russia had months to prepare its defensive lines while the West was slow in providing the much needed equipment and training for the counter offensive. The training of Ukrainan troops in the west also took lots of time. The counter offensive while now as a result slow, that does not mean that once the defensive lines are broken that the occupied territories will not be reclaimed far quicker. In fact I predict the Russians will crumble away as soon as there is a major break through.

 

Ukraine has not deployed its foremost brigades yet they are waiting while those lines are broken.

 

Ukraine has indeed suffered equipment losses but that is to be expected, any attacking forces knows that they normally suffer more than the defenders. The cluster munitions are already in play and being very effective.

 

I'm going with:

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may soon increase in tempo and that the delay in counteroffensive operations was in part due to limited materiel. 

 

Zelensky stated that counteroffensive operations may soon increase in tempo due to ongoing mine-clearing operations.[6] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on July 21 at the Aspen Security Forum that it is too early to draw conclusions about Ukrainian counteroffensive operations and that Ukraine will likely “make a profound difference” on the battlefield as Kyiv commits all of the forces that Ukraine prepared for the counteroffensive.[7]

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-22-2023

[sirineou]

3 minutes ago, rudi49jr said:

There maybe hope yet, though:

 

“Knives out: How Putin’s powerful inner circle dubbed ‘The Ozeros’ are plotting to topple him to finally end Ukraine war”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/23081740/putin-powerful-inner-circle-ozeros-plot-topple-him/

 

I’m not sure how credible this is, but if it is true and they do succeed in ousting Putin and ending the war in Ukraine, that would be very good news. 

 

First let me say this, I am just a guy like you living in Thailand , I personally know little of this , and parrot what I read. 

As there is propaganda or the Russian narrative in Russia ,so there is in the west , combined with a lot of wishful thinking.  To get a realistic picture you have to go to Youtube and watch seminars on on the subject from reliable and respected sources . Seminars in Yale University , Harvard , oxford union ,  etc. I have yet to hear anyone who believes that this does not end with Ukraine losing  a significant part  of it's teratorn' The consensus seem to be 1/3 .  All major news outlets  and reporters in the west  will not put their publication, or career on lline and go against public sentiment and the prevailing narrative. .Propaganda, is not in what you are told. What you are told has to be basically true, but in what you are not being told. "The Yes but"

So you have to go to the record;

  William Burns now CIA director, then Ambassador to Russia in 2008 wrote in a memo to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:

       "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines 
     for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and 
     a half years of conversations with key Russian players . . . 
     I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as 
     anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

Link to the actual document from the congressional record :

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CREC-2022-02-10-pt1-PgS632-2.htm

A lot there to unpack but in relevant to our conversation as it pertains to Russian sentiment concerning the issue.  See bottom of Page S633 Two paragraphs up from S634.

Burns was not the only one, Angela Merkel said the same. "Russia will consider NATO expansion into Ukraine a de facto declaration of war. 

    As unfortunate as it is, The point is , that as much as we might wish otherwise , even if Putin was to be replaced the one replacing him would not be any better but perhaps worst. And the Russian policy towards Nato expansion into Ukraine will remain  the same. 

[sirineou]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Ye of little faith. When you start posting vids with the likes of John Mearsheimer as their expert then its little wonder you form these views.

Are you saying that the report by DW is incorrect?

Instead of  ad hominem attacks om Mearsheimer , which part of what he said do you disagree? 

What about Edward Luttwak , perhaps you don't like his haircut? 

 

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Are you saying that the report by DW is incorrect?

Instead of  ad hominem attacks om Mearsheimer , which part of what he said do you disagree? 

What about Edward Luttwak , perhaps you don't like his haircut? 

 

You conveniently edited my response and missed out the pertinent points thanks for that.

 

As for JM, this from 2015

Vladimir Putin’s apologists spread dangerous message

The standard-bearer of the pro-Putin realists is John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, who has made a career out of reducing the complexity of global politics to the aggression of self-interested powers. In the process, he studiously ignores their internal politics. One obvious advantage of this approach is that it considerably reduces the amount of research and knowledge that is required to dispense authoritative judgments about the conduct of any particular country.

https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/vladimir-putins-apologists-spread-dangerous-message-20150129-130snb.html

 

I'll ignore the hair cut trolling remark

 

The DW report also mentioned that when the defensive lines are broken there can be a rapid retake of territory.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Bkk Brian

[tgw]

3 hours ago, rudi49jr said:

There maybe hope yet, though:

 

“Knives out: How Putin’s powerful inner circle dubbed ‘The Ozeros’ are plotting to topple him to finally end Ukraine war”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/23081740/putin-powerful-inner-circle-ozeros-plot-topple-him/

 

I’m not sure how credible this is, but if it is true and they do succeed in ousting Putin and ending the war in Ukraine, that would be very good news. 

 

that depends a lot on how they want to end the war in Ukraine.

[Hummin]

2 hours ago, sirineou said:

First let me say this, I am just a guy like you living in Thailand , I personally know little of this , and parrot what I read. 

As there is propaganda or the Russian narrative in Russia ,so there is in the west , combined with a lot of wishful thinking.  To get a realistic picture you have to go to Youtube and watch seminars on on the subject from reliable and respected sources . Seminars in Yale University , Harvard , oxford union ,  etc. I have yet to hear anyone who believes that this does not end with Ukraine losing  a significant part  of it's teratorn' The consensus seem to be 1/3 .  All major news outlets  and reporters in the west  will not put their publication, or career on lline and go against public sentiment and the prevailing narrative. .Propaganda, is not in what you are told. What you are told has to be basically true, but in what you are not being told. "The Yes but"

So you have to go to the record;

  William Burns now CIA director, then Ambassador to Russia in 2008 wrote in a memo to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:

       "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines 
     for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and 
     a half years of conversations with key Russian players . . . 
     I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as 
     anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."

Link to the actual document from the congressional record :

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CREC-2022-02-10-pt1-PgS632-2.htm

A lot there to unpack but in relevant to our conversation as it pertains to Russian sentiment concerning the issue.  See bottom of Page S633 Two paragraphs up from S634.

Burns was not the only one, Angela Merkel said the same. "Russia will consider NATO expansion into Ukraine a de facto declaration of war. 

    As unfortunate as it is, The point is , that as much as we might wish otherwise , even if Putin was to be replaced the one replacing him would not be any better but perhaps worst. And the Russian policy towards Nato expansion into Ukraine will remain  the same. 

We are far beyond the reasonable conclusions at this time, and nothing can take back the war crimes done by Russia, no matter what reasons they thought they had from the very beginning. Only Putins downfall and full withdrawel from Ukraine is the only realistic solution now, and Ukraine jons Eu and Nato in that order. Russia should be part of Nato in the future, because they have valuable resources necessery to create a stronger west alliance. But first Putin have to fall, and maybe Russia needs to be on their knees begging for restoring their country again. But that will take a few 100 thousands of their young mens life, and maybe some heavy destruction to Russia before that goal is reached. 

 

If Putin withdraw from Ukraine tomorow, it is just a time out, before next attempt, and they are not leaving Crimea. 

[sirineou]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

You conveniently edited my response and missed out the pertinent points thanks for that.

 

As for JM, this from 2015

Vladimir Putin’s apologists spread dangerous message

The standard-bearer of the pro-Putin realists is John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, who has made a career out of reducing the complexity of global politics to the aggression of self-interested powers. In the process, he studiously ignores their internal politics. One obvious advantage of this approach is that it considerably reduces the amount of research and knowledge that is required to dispense authoritative judgments about the conduct of any particular country.

https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/vladimir-putins-apologists-spread-dangerous-message-20150129-130snb.html

 

I'll ignore the hair cut trolling remark

 

The DW report also mentioned that when the defensive lines are broken there can be a rapid retake of territory.

What is the above intended to prove, that a newspaper somewhere has an opinion that agrees with you? 

As for  Mearsheimer's reputation,institutions such as Yale university, the bush school of goverment, The Robert Schuman center for advanced studies, at the center of strategic and international  studies. Center for international policy studies Ottawa.,USC Berkeley. International association for political science students, University of California, Hoover institute, Interviewed by every major newspaper and news station,  Thought highly enough of him to invite him to talk .

I am sorry if the Sydney morning Herald did not like him. 

  DW did not report any of the above you say, That was speculation by a person being interviewed by DW,  " the Ukrainian forces  hope that they might be able to puncture through some of these lines of defence"

Well Duh!! of course the hope that, what would they hope? Is there a fighting force in the history of the world that did not hope that? 

  What DW  and the NY times reported is that Ukraine has lost 20% of it's forces and has only recaptured 8 out of 96 km , At this rate of attrition,  Do the math , but even if the attrition rate slows down to 10% per 8k ?  

The bottom line is That Russia has 10x the troops and Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces and would have to start throwing their youth in to the meat grinder. 

As horrible as that is , it is reality recognized by any military strategist. Which exactly what Edward Luttwak said in the Unheard interview, I was so kind to provide a link in  in support of my opinion. 

The only support of your opinion you have provided is an opinion article ny the Sydney Morning Herald. , please excuse me if I am not impressed. 

   You said  "I'll ignore the hair cut trolling remark " How was the remark trolling? You entirely ignored everything he had to say which supported what I said

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by sirineou

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, sirineou said:

What is the above intended to prove, that a newspaper somewhere has an opinion that agrees with you? 

As for  Mearsheimer's reputation,institutions such as Yale university, the bush school of goverment, The Robert Schuman center for advanced studies, at the center of strategic and international  studies. Center for international policy studies Ottawa.,USC Berkeley. International association for political science students, University of California, Hoover institute, Interviewed by every major newspaper and news station,  Thought highly enough of him to invite him to talk .

I am sorry if the Sydney morning Herald did not like him. 

  DW did not report any of the above you say, That was speculation by a person being interviewed by DW,  " the Ukrainian forces  hope that they might be able to puncture through some of these lines of defence"

Well Duh!! of course the hope that, what would they hope? Is there a fighting force in the history of the world that did not hope that? 

  What DW  and the NY times reported is that Ukraine has lost 20% of it's forces and has only recaptured 8 out of 96 km , At this rate of attrition,  Do the math , but even if the attrition rate slows down to 10% per 8k ?  

The bottom line is That Russia has 10x the troops and Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces and would have to start throwing their youth in to the meat grinder. 

As horrible as that is , it is reality recognized by any military strategist. Which exactly what Edward Luttwak said in the Unheard interview, I was so kind to provide a link in  in support of my opinion. 

The only support of your opinion you have provided is an opinion article ny the Sydney Morning Herald. , please excuse me if I am not impressed. 

   You said  "I'll ignore the hair cut trolling remark " How was the remark trolling? You entirely ignored everything he had to say which supported what I said

 

Actually if you hadn't snippet my original post then you would have read that I did indeed discuss your points and also provided a link rather than expecting posters here to listen to over an hour of 3 separate youtube videos with unsupported claims to source. This is a discussion forum not youtube.

 

As for your bottom line.

 

Where is your source that Russia has 10x the troops that Ukraine has presently? 

Where is your source that Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces?

[RanongCat]

16 minutes ago, sirineou said:

What is the above intended to prove, that a newspaper somewhere has an opinion that agrees with you? 

As for  Mearsheimer's reputation,institutions such as Yale university, the bush school of goverment, The Robert Schuman center for advanced studies, at the center of strategic and international  studies. Center for international policy studies Ottawa.,USC Berkeley. International association for political science students, University of California, Hoover institute, Interviewed by every major newspaper and news station,  Thought highly enough of him to invite him to talk .

I am sorry if the Sydney morning Herald did not like him. 

  DW did not report any of the above you say, That was speculation by a person being interviewed by DW,  " the Ukrainian forces  hope that they might be able to puncture through some of these lines of defence"

Well Duh!! of course the hope that, what would they hope? Is there a fighting force in the history of the world that did not hope that? 

  What DW  and the NY times reported is that Ukraine has lost 20% of it's forces and has only recaptured 8 out of 96 km , At this rate of attrition,  Do the math , but even if the attrition rate slows down to 10% per 8k ?  

The bottom line is That Russia has 10x the troops and Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces and would have to start throwing their youth in to the meat grinder. 

As horrible as that is , it is reality recognized by any military strategist. Which exactly what Edward Luttwak said in the Unheard interview, I was so kind to provide a link in  in support of my opinion. 

The only support of your opinion you have provided is an opinion article ny the Sydney Morning Herald. , please excuse me if I am not impressed. 

   You said  "I'll ignore the hair cut trolling remark " How was the remark trolling? You entirely ignored everything he had to say which supported what I said

 

Being not a  "yes " man is not the popular choice ?

[sirineou]

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Actually if you hadn't snippet my original post then you would have read that I did indeed discuss your points and also provided a link rather than expecting posters here to listen to over an hour of 3 separate youtube videos with unsupported claims to source. This is a discussion forum not youtube.

 

As for your bottom line.

 

Where is your source that Russia has 10x the troops that Ukraine has presently? 

Where is your source that Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces?

First let me start by saying that I take no pleasure in what I say, I simply state the facts as I know them and provide supporting links to such facts , I hope you appreciate the amount of work that I put in this Unlike those who might not want to invest the time to watch these hours, seminars and interviews, I have.  

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/europe/russia-ukraine-military-comparison-intl/index.html

 

"Where is your source that Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces? "

I think it is a fair assumption that  they put trained soldiers in their assault wouldn't you agree? TheDW reported that Ukraine has lost 20% , If that is correct they lost close to 40,000 troops , That is a staggering loss regardless how  some might want to spin it. That is my opinion.

I was also kind enough to provide you with the interview of Edward Luttwak, a respected Author, tactician and advisor to goverment heads .You might not want to watch an hour long analysis, I understand that,  so below is a screen shot of the video cover .

Why do you think that Edward Luttwak id of the opinion that Biden and Putin are ready to make a deal?  By the way, the war situation in Ukraine is not the only reason, There is the other little thing called China.

Luttwak, as are many others is also of the opinion that Ukraine will lose about one third of it's eastern territories.

None of these people I quoted delve  in what is good, what is bad, and what id fair, and neither do I , simply in to what is.as they see it. If there are others who think different I love to hear it. Trust me nothing would make me happier. 

 

 

 

[sirineou]

38 minutes ago, RanongCat said:

Being not a  "yes " man is not the popular choice ?

Certainly not

 

[Bkk Brian]

59 minutes ago, sirineou said:

First let me start by saying that I take no pleasure in what I say, I simply state the facts as I know them and provide supporting links to such facts , I hope you appreciate the amount of work that I put in this Unlike those who might not want to invest the time to watch these hours, seminars and interviews, I have.  

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/europe/russia-ukraine-military-comparison-intl/index.html

 

"Where is your source that Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces? "

I think it is a fair assumption that  they put trained soldiers in their assault wouldn't you agree? TheDW reported that Ukraine has lost 20% , If that is correct they lost close to 40,000 troops , That is a staggering loss regardless how  some might want to spin it. That is my opinion.

I was also kind enough to provide you with the interview of Edward Luttwak, a respected Author, tactician and advisor to goverment heads .You might not want to watch an hour long analysis, I understand that,  so below is a screen shot of the video cover .

Why do you think that Edward Luttwak id of the opinion that Biden and Putin are ready to make a deal?  By the way, the war situation in Ukraine is not the only reason, There is the other little thing called China.

Luttwak, as are many others is also of the opinion that Ukraine will lose about one third of it's eastern territories.

None of these people I quoted delve  in what is good, what is bad, and what id fair, and neither do I , simply in to what is.as they see it. If there are others who think different I love to hear it. Trust me nothing would make me happier. 

 

 

 

So your bottom line claims have no source or facts to back them up. As I thought. 

 

Yes Ukraine has lost lots of troops, but Russia has lost far more as they have with equipment losses in this failed invasion.

 

I don't listen to hours of youtube channels making predictions but I have spent hours reading direct source updates on the war and what is actually going on.

 

Your comment : "I hope you appreciate the amount of work that I put in this" Please...........

 

59 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I think it is a fair assumption that  they put trained soldiers in their assault wouldn't you agree? TheDW reported that Ukraine has lost 20% , If that is correct they lost close to 40,000 troops , That is a staggering loss regardless how  some might want to spin it. That is my opinion.

The DW report or any report is NOT claiming that Ukraine has lost 20% of its troops in the counter offensive, those reports refer to equipment losses only. The Russian losses for equipment must also be taken into account. Your figure of 40,000 lost in this counter offensive is pie in the sky.

 

As for the troops and numbers being used in the counter offensive:

 

Ukraine has so far committed only three of the 12 brigades specially formed for its counter-offensive. A brigade comprises between 3,000 and 5,000 men.

 

Since the start of the invasion Ukraine has already regained more than 50% of the land Russia occupied. In addition to that, since the counter offensive, while a slow start it has recaptured 300 square kilometers which is the equivalent of three times the size of Paris, but relatively still much much more to do.

 

it's "more territory than Russia has seized in its whole winter offensive," Wallace pointed out.

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/06/29/ukraine-tries-to-provide-reassurance-about-progress-of-ts-counter-offensive_6039467_4.html

https://archive.ph/oN10R

 

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Bkk Brian

[Jingthing]

Mearsheimer is indeed a respected academic  I have watched numerous lectures by him. Then I considered other sources refuting his theories. My conclusion is that he is wrong about the Ukraine Russia war.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Jingthing

[sirineou]

7 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Mearsheimer is indeed a respected academic  I have watched numerous lectures by him. Then I considered other sources refuting his theories. My conclusion is that he is wrong about the Ukraine Russia war.

 

 

In his first argument against the assertion that Russia had no choice starts with :

"I believe that Russia is an expansionist imperial power " "Russia believes that it has always been surrounded by external threats "

and concludes that the argument that "Russia  defending itself from Ukraine doesn't really in my mind stand up as a threat to Russia".

   So let's unpack this.

   -First,  He sets up a strawman   argument. That the threat in Russia's mind is Ukraine, which of course is ridiculous. The threat to Russia is NATO. Ukraine by it's self provides no existential threat to Russia. 

   -Second: He offers no supporting evidence , but opinion, he says "in my mind  "

    - Third: he offers the opinion   that   this is somehow an Imperialist expansionist issue,   but presents no reasons why he thinks so, where Mearsheimer, presented facts why he does not think Russia attacked Ukraine to occupied is, he presented past Putin stamens, and the fact that Russia went in to Ukraine with less than 200k troops. No one defeats and occupies a country of 44 million people with less than 200k troops. 

 Then he goes on to say:

That "Puttin yearns for respect",  "and because of past successes  elsewhere he thought he could do the same in Ukraine "and concludes " If he thought he could do the same , but of course he failed" "if it that was  his rational choice the outcome was irrational "  

So again  he offers arguable opinions , and qualifies it with an "If" There is no one who argues that Putin went into Ukraine because Putin would get respect out of it. This argument  is ludicrous, and at best persona opinion.   

  Mearsheimer, on the other hand provides supporting evidence why he thinks Russia went in because of NATO expansion. H says  there were plenty of warning to the west , by notable individuals such as US Ambassadors to Russia,and current director of the CIA , Angela Merkel, Tenet, etc. and provided the evidence. 

 -Fourth:  he says :"Mearsheimer like some others in the Realist movement believe that Ukraine should subdue" "I fundamentally disagree ,every independent nation should have the right to belong to which ever club it wants "  I agree!! In a perfect world perhaps ,but the reality is that it does not, Did Cuba had that choice, Granada? Nicaragua? etc He seems to not have heard of a little thing called the Monroe Doctrine  

So now he is arguing with himself. earlier he said that it was not because of NATO but "Imperialist and  expansionist" aspect s now he seems to concede that this is about NATO, but against Ukraine's right to Join NATO. 

  By this point ,this video is becoming painful to watch, but out of respect I will continue on. 

Then he makes a speech about what he thinks Ukraine should and should not do. 

 Then he goes on to talk about the 2008 Bucharest NATO where the decision to offer NATO membership happened, He says that Mearsheimer claimed that at this meeting it was said that " there was a clear path for Ukraine to join NATO and proclaims " NO IT WAS NOT " and continues  well "Yes President bush made the statement but Merkel and Sarkozy  disagreed .

Well Duh... Mearsheimer said the same thing. and said that despite that fact the US continued to push Ukraine toward NATO, training the Ukrainian army, conducting join exercises etc.   In fact by the time of the invasion, which was ten years after the Bucharest summit,  Ukraine was a de facto NATo member.  

  Then  Stubb. makes another speech about how NATO was in Europe not as a defence against Russia but to protect European countries from attacking each other. Yes perhaps that was one  role , but not the only one . 

 

I am sorry. I gave up after 14 minutes in to this video ,  

Stubb. does nothing contradict Mearsheimer's claims , but only offers opinion and pleads "Believe me I was there" 

Are there any seminars where Stubb made these claims where afterwards there was a Q&A where such statements could be challenged and defended?  I would be interested to watch. What institutions have invited Mr Stubb to to offer his opinion? 

  If there is any information after that time stamp  please let me know and I will try to address it.  Also If there are any points  Mearsheimer makes that you or anyone else disagrees with please let me know and I promise to look into them and if true change my opinion. 

  

 

[jvs]

41 minutes ago, sirineou said:

In his first argument against the assertion that Russia had no choice starts with :

"I believe that Russia is an expansionist imperial power " "Russia believes that it has always been surrounded by external threats "

and concludes that the argument that "Russia  defending itself from Ukraine doesn't really in my mind stand up as a threat to Russia".

   So let's unpack this.

   -First,  He sets up a strawman   argument. That the threat in Russia's mind is Ukraine, which of course is ridiculous. The threat to Russia is NATO. Ukraine by it's self provides no existential threat to Russia. 

   -Second: He offers no supporting evidence , but opinion, he says "in my mind  "

    - Third: he offers the opinion   that   this is somehow an Imperialist expansionist issue,   but presents no reasons why he thinks so, where Mearsheimer, presented facts why he does not think Russia attacked Ukraine to occupied is, he presented past Putin stamens, and the fact that Russia went in to Ukraine with less than 200k troops. No one defeats and occupies a country of 44 million people with less than 200k troops. 

 Then he goes on to say:

That "Puttin yearns for respect",  "and because of past successes  elsewhere he thought he could do the same in Ukraine "and concludes " If he thought he could do the same , but of course he failed" "if it that was  his rational choice the outcome was irrational "  

So again  he offers arguable opinions , and qualifies it with an "If" There is no one who argues that Putin went into Ukraine because Putin would get respect out of it. This argument  is ludicrous, and at best persona opinion.   

  Mearsheimer, on the other hand provides supporting evidence why he thinks Russia went in because of NATO expansion. H says  there were plenty of warning to the west , by notable individuals such as US Ambassadors to Russia,and current director of the CIA , Angela Merkel, Tenet, etc. and provided the evidence. 

 -Fourth:  he says :"Mearsheimer like some others in the Realist movement believe that Ukraine should subdue" "I fundamentally disagree ,every independent nation should have the right to belong to which ever club it wants "  I agree!! In a perfect world perhaps ,but the reality is that it does not, Did Cuba had that choice, Granada? Nicaragua? etc He seems to not have heard of a little thing called the Monroe Doctrine  

So now he is arguing with himself. earlier he said that it was not because of NATO but "Imperialist and  expansionist" aspect s now he seems to concede that this is about NATO, but against Ukraine's right to Join NATO. 

  By this point ,this video is becoming painful to watch, but out of respect I will continue on. 

Then he makes a speech about what he thinks Ukraine should and should not do. 

 Then he goes on to talk about the 2008 Bucharest NATO where the decision to offer NATO membership happened, He says that Mearsheimer claimed that at this meeting it was said that " there was a clear path for Ukraine to join NATO and proclaims " NO IT WAS NOT " and continues  well "Yes President bush made the statement but Merkel and Sarkozy  disagreed .

Well Duh... Mearsheimer said the same thing. and said that despite that fact the US continued to push Ukraine toward NATO, training the Ukrainian army, conducting join exercises etc.   In fact by the time of the invasion, which was ten years after the Bucharest summit,  Ukraine was a de facto NATo member.  

  Then  Stubb. makes another speech about how NATO was in Europe not as a defence against Russia but to protect European countries from attacking each other. Yes perhaps that was one  role , but not the only one . 

 

I am sorry. I gave up after 14 minutes in to this video ,  

Stubb. does nothing contradict Mearsheimer's claims , but only offers opinion and pleads "Believe me I was there" 

Are there any seminars where Stubb made these claims where afterwards there was a Q&A where such statements could be challenged and defended?  I would be interested to watch. What institutions have invited Mr Stubb to to offer his opinion? 

  If there is any information after that time stamp  please let me know and I will try to address it.  Also If there are any points  Mearsheimer makes that you or anyone else disagrees with please let me know and I promise to look into them and if true change my opinion. 

  

 

Why would NATO be a threat to russia?

[sirineou]

Just now, jvs said:

Why would NATO be a threat to russia?

Are you serious?

I don't know , why don't you ask Ambassador Burns now director of CIA  Angela Merkel, Sarkozy , why they thought that Russia will consider Nato expansion into Ukraine as a "De facto declaration of war. " 

[jvs]

6 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Are you serious?

I don't know , why don't you ask Ambassador Burns now director of CIA  Angela Merkel, Sarkozy , why they thought that Russia will consider Nato expansion into Ukraine as a "De facto declaration of war. " 

Are you serious?

NATO is not expanding at all!Not the way that russia wants to expand anyway.

Maybe you should look up what NATO stands for and what its goals are?

"What russia will consider"well yes but that is just another excuse like the nazi's and devils and attack mosquitos.

So when this war is over and the Ukraine becomes a member of NATO,what will russia do?Attack a NATO country?Not going to happen,the same as some people think Wagner wants to attack Poland.

Never going to happen.

 

[Wobblybob]

11 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Are you serious?

I don't know , why don't you ask Ambassador Burns now director of CIA  Angela Merkel, Sarkozy , why they thought that Russia will consider Nato expansion into Ukraine as a "De facto declaration of war. " 

Yet if Ukraine had been a member of NATO Russia would not have invaded, Finland and Sweden had no intention of joining NATO until Russia invaded Ukraine. I think it would be fair to say that nations join NATO to protect themselves from a Russian invasion rather than to go to war against Russia.