Can Thailand really afford to stop exporting to Russia?

[sqwakvfr]

Why not?  I am an American and we are importing 200,000+ barrels of Russian per day.  Oil just topped $100 per barrel.  Oil was under $50 per barrel about a year ago. Completely block Russia from SWIFT?  Never going to happen.  Why? Then how will countries pay Russia for all the oil and natural gas. America cannot tell any country what it can import or export anymore.  Thailand should to what is in their best interest.  

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Sure,  they will figure out a way to do it.

Thailand will do what it always does, sit on the fence say nothing and do nothing, it will continue to trade as normal, and allow Russians into Thailand on holiday.

But it may find itself in a sticky situation when it goes back to the EU and other large nations expecting a trade fair deal.

Politicians have a habit of remembering who's in or outside of the club.

[Aussieroaming]

The fake news started when the article stated that Thailand had previously been classified as a first world country. 

First-world countries are often characterized by prosperity, democracy, and stability—both political and economic. A high literacy rate, free enterprise, and the rule of law are other common characteristics of first-world countries.

 

Thailand is run by continuous juntas, indispersed with occassional democracy. Prosperity is skewed to a minority, with a poor underclass that sees very little benefit of the country's prosperity and Thailand is useless at enforcing basic laws. Some other so called western first world countries should also be reviewing their assertions of being first world based on the above listed definition.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tony125]

57 minutes ago, Guderian said:

Why is there a dilemma here? The Thai government is quite happy to continue trading with Myanmar and to maintain reasonably cordial relations with the murderous thugs running the show there, I should have thought that Vlad the Sovereign Nation Impaler would fit right into their cosy little social circle.

What posters seem to not understand is yes Thailand might be trading with North Korea, China, Myanmar but the world and US did not put restrictions/sanctions on that. Now the EU/US  are odering other countries not to trade with Russia or face sanctions themselves.

[Teddy3943]

Putin attacked Ukraine with the nonsense reason that He felt unsafe. Who wants to attack Russia??? This was only a cheap and childish make up to try to extend his territory, likewise he did that with Crimea. 

If Thailand is a decent nation, it should condemn this low hearted attack at an innocent nation and join the worldwide strong rejection of this ruthless attack and join the boycot. Even Russian citizens are horrified by Putin's actions. Many thousants of Russian citizens protested in more then 25 cities all over Russia.

"Noblesse oblige... ", but sees Thailand itself as a nobel nation?

[Seppius]

This, at the moment, is only heading in one very bad direction. The effects will be worldwide not just Thailand.

 

For me, the Russians I have met here are ok, not hot on manners, but that comes from their upbringing of not trusting any strangers I guess. I do feel for them a bit, as all they want is a nice holiday in the sun, like all of us. Several live in the same building as I with their young family

 

It will take an uprising in Russia, and I can't see that happening anytime soon.

[spidermike007]

Thailand should be referred to as a 3rd world nation. Granted, the telecom infrastructure is very good. And public transport options in Bangkok are very good. But, beyond that, what would be 1st world about the place?

No high speed rail transport.

No ability to hire a helicopter for quick transport.

Massively over clogged highways, due to the lack of planning, and inability to find any alternative to truck transport of cargo.

A minimum number of well placed regional airports, and many like Hua Hin, which are barely used at all.

Very poor environmental safeguards. Air, land and sea are all abused and nothing is being done to improve that. Less than zero.

A terrible record when it comes to tackling human trafficking, slave trading, fishing industry violations, and treatment of migrant workers.

A horrific and totally ineffective job of battling corruption. A highly corrupt police, customs, immigration, and border patrol.

A health ministry which is incapable of responding to a pandemic. And a government that does not respect democracy, the free press, the right of the people to protest or criticize, and then the area we cannot discuss. One could go on all day. 

 

In terms of Thailand's dependence on Russia, one may ask why has Putin chosen this moment to make his move on Ukraine? As many have pointed out, Russia is an objectively weak state — “Upper Volta with nuclear weapons,” as someone once quipped — with a nominal G.D.P. smaller than that of South Korea. Outside of energy, minerals and second-rate military equipment, it produces almost nothing that outsiders want: no Russian iPhone, Lexus or “Fauda.” If it were not for the minerals, oil and natural gas, Russia would be a highly irrelevant state. 

 

Russia is also a relatively small player in overall international trade. It ranks 20th in the world for exports in goods and services, trailing smaller countries such as the Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Belgium, Spain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the Asian trade hubs of Singapore and Hong Kong.

 

https://www.tampabay.com/news/nation-world/2022/02/25/russias-economy-and-western-sanctions-what-you-need-to-know/

 

Putin’s problem with Ukraine, starting with the Maidan uprising of 2014, is that Ukrainians want nothing to do with him. He is despised. And for good reason. If he were a Disney character, he’d be Rapunzel’s mother.

Edited February 28, 2022 by spidermike007

[cardinalblue]

This should not be treated as business as usual….time to unite behind Ukraine and that is what happening from western countries 

[KhunLA]

Why would Thailand or any ASEAN country stop trading with Russia.   Ukraine is no better, or any other country.  Maybe Switzerland ????

[Cake Monster]

With the large amounts of Money that the Russians use in Thailand, the Thais will never sanction them .

The Thai Property Market as well as Schools, many Business Ventures Etc would certainly collapse in Russian strongholds such as Phuket, and Jomtien Etc.

In time to come if the Thais do not sanction Russia, then they themselves will suffer at the hands of Trade Deals Etc with the US EU and such Countries.

[Shocked farang]

8 hours ago, Isaanlife said:

Ruble won't be worth anything the way it is going and Russia won't be able to afford imports.

 

How about all the Russians living in Thailand working online and getting paid in rubles?

 

They are in for a rude awakening.

Are you saying that all those signs in Russian in Pattaya will disappear? 

[jollyhangmon]

6 minutes ago, BigIvan said:

Numbers, numbers, numbers... You are so used to measure your life with numbers and you will never get the idea.

Feeling you get when your army is rolling forward crushing the evil is priceless.  None of you will ever feel it.  Keep counting.

 

... 555, good one - now GFY tovarich!

 

[Havenstreet1940]

7 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

Thailand trades with North Korea, why would they stop trading with Russia.

 

And now with Saudi Arabia back on the stove it's a trifecta.

 

 

Simply because as far as I am aware, those countries have not invaded another,  Money is the motivating factor in Thailand, so the answer to the question is that as long as there in money on the table,Thailand wil not have any concern that innocent people are dying and more will die if Putin releases the nuclear option.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Havenstreet1940

[2 is 1]

2 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

Russia has got oil - lots of oil. Iran and Iraq never stopped selling the stuff in $$ throughout the wars .... and at $100++ per barrel now, Russia is making lots of money. There are always buyers of oil.

Yes oil and energy is not on sanction list! But Europe try to get they oil and gas from other place. And even Russia sell oil they cant get they money from it! Also toilet paper called "ruble" is valueless sht!

[JBChiangRai]

Life has a way of rewarding “Doing the right thing”

 

Is the right thing “Business as usual” with an aggressor invading a sovereign nation?  I think not.

[MasterBaker]

if Thailand want to continue to be a puppet, yes sure, cut export. Myanmar will be happy to fill the gap

[Thunglom]

2 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

Russia has got oil - lots of oil. Iran and Iraq never stopped selling the stuff in $$ throughout the wars .... and at $100++ per barrel now, Russia is making lots of money. There are always buyers of oil.

If Russia cuts gas/oil supplies to EU tat will be a massive cut in income - assuming the west is still paying for it.

The price of oil is rocketing but contrary to your premise, Russia may find it hard to replace the EU with other customers. They will be subject to the West's pressure not to buy.

[multatuli]

9 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Sure,  they will figure out a way to do it.

Gold and oil

[Thunglom]

2 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

Russia has got oil - lots of oil. Iran and Iraq never stopped selling the stuff in $$ throughout the wars .... and at $100++ per barrel now, Russia is making lots of money. There are always buyers of oil.

If Russia cuts gas/oil supplies to EU tat will be a massive cut in income - assuming the west is still paying for it.

The price of oil is rocketing but contrary to your premise, Russia may find it hard to replace the EU with other customers. They will be subject to the West's pressure not to buy.

[WEBBYB808]

Why is this even a question.   A country notorious  for sitting in the middle will obviously  only think about its own skin and not care about any sanctions other countries my impart.   We will just have to see.

[Mises]

6 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

If Russia cuts gas/oil supplies to EU tat will be a massive cut in income - assuming the west is still paying for it.

The price of oil is rocketing but contrary to your premise, Russia may find it hard to replace the EU with other customers. They will be subject to the West's pressure not to buy.

Russia has amassed foreign exchange reserves of $635bn, the fifth highest in the world and rising. It has a national debt of 18pc of GDP, the sixth lowest in the world, and falling.

The commodity boom is adding an extra $10bn a month to Kremlin coffers from oil and gas. It is being squirrelled away in the National Wellbeing Fund.

The Kremlin could sever all gas flows to Europe – 41pc of the EU’s supply – for two years or more without running into serious financial buffers.

The harsh truth was summed up by Russia’s ambassador to Sweden. “Excuse my language, but we couldn’t give a <deleted> about western sanctions,” he told the Aftonbladet newspaper.

But right now China has Russia’s back against the West, and this renders it impossible to enforce meaningful sanctions.

 

 

[koele2]

Whatever makes the most money for those in power will be the Russian policy they follow.  The war has no effect on their decisions with Russia.  Only money in their pockets.  ALWAYS about money in their pockets.  

[Will B Good]

Can Thailand forgo exports to Russia.................. Yes..................if they are going to be paid in Ruobles

[paul1804]

Some of you on here have rather poor morals, cast a thought for the poor bloody Ukraines because Adolph Putin wants to rebuild the soviet empire, no other real reason than his EGO! If the rest of the world unanamously say enough, Putin will have little choice but to pull out. It would save an awful lot of hardship and misery for all including the Russian people who do not want this war!! If only XI Ping had some real morals, he would get lots of Kudos!!

Edited February 28, 2022 by paul1804

[kennw]

9 hours ago, Henryford said:

Finance against morals ha ha. Thailand will take $$$ in a heartbeat.

My money is on this also. 555

[Will B Good]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

No ability to hire a helicopter for quick transport.

Got to admit....that has always been bugbear of mine......55

[placnx]

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Think you'll find its CIPS

Yes, the Chinese system will be somewhat effective in circumventing sanctions, but the Russian system will likely be useless.

https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/84634

 

If Thailand is a CIPS member, what Thai banks are connected into that system? If they do business with Russia, that could be very risky.

Edited February 28, 2022 by placnx
mention another aspect

[Morty T]

First World country ? In the past, you mean like in 1890 ? 

[placnx]

23 minutes ago, Mises said:

Russia has amassed foreign exchange reserves of $635bn, the fifth highest in the world and rising. It has a national debt of 18pc of GDP, the sixth lowest in the world, and falling.

 

The commodity boom is adding an extra $10bn a month to Kremlin coffers from oil and gas. It is being squirrelled away in the National Wellbeing Fund.

 

The Kremlin could sever all gas flows to Europe – 41pc of the EU’s supply – for two years or more without running into serious financial buffers.

 

The harsh truth was summed up by Russia’s ambassador to Sweden. “Excuse my language, but we couldn’t give a <deleted> about western sanctions,” he told the Aftonbladet newspaper.

 

But right now China has Russia’s back against the West, and this renders it impossible to enforce meaningful sanctions.

 

 

 

 

 

The sanctions of the Russian Central Bank will be problematical for Putin. Maybe ambassador's comment was made before that news??

[sanuk711]

Thailand--doesn't own those export figures does it.

 

Your talking about exporting of cars and Vehicular parts, I know the cars are made (assembled) in Thailand, but there Honda's --Toyota's etc. If that had to stop then there would possibly be a cut back on the work force, but the profit from those type of exports are not Thailand's gain.