Banks downgraded as the Thai economy faces a liquidity crisis caused by war and tourism barriers

[webfact]

Krystal Tan, a senior economist with Australia’s second-largest banking group ANZ, speaking on Bloomberg TV this week. She highlighted the impact of rising oil prices on Thailand’s energy-dependent economy and the loss of Russian tourists as significant downsides. She said that all this meant the kingdom was now more likely to see a second current account deficit this year. It comes as, S&P, the leading rating agency, downgraded four top Thai banks based on raised systematic risk as the kingdom still faces large losses in foreign tourism income with controlled entry into the country still in place. Officials are hoping to abolish this by July 1st next.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

 

Thailand’s economy remains highly dependent on both exports and foreign tourism with the current storm again highlighting this factor. The loss of foreign tourism income since March 2020 is the single biggest impact factor as the country is now confronted by what could be a growing liquidity crisis and consistently high current account deficits if urgent action is not taken. After this, comes the threat from increasingly dangerous geopolitical tensions and concerns over China as financial capital takes flight from Asia with US interest rate rises.

 

Keep up to date with all things Thailand - Join our daily ASEAN NOW Thailand Newsletter - Click to subscribe

 

The surging price of oil and spiralling demand within the kingdom is the latest problem for the government but the continued loss of foreign tourism income has and continues to inflict long term damage to Thailand’s financial position and financial liquidity with consistently high current account deficits. The country’s economy is being tested by dangerous geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates in the United States and a flight of capital out of Asia as investor confidence wanes not only in Asia but across the world in a situation not seen since the banking crisis of 2008. This has led to the downgrade of four Thai banks this week by rating agency S&P which saw the Bank of Thailand move to underline that the banking system in the country is strong enough to withstand any uncertainty or economic shocks.

 

The rating agency Standard and Poor or S&P Ratings, one of the three biggest firms in the world, is understood to have downgraded four leading Thai banks in a report published on Tuesday by the International Financing Review (IFR), a leading financial magazine published in London.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2022/03/24/thai-banks-downgraded-fears-over-liquidity/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2022-03-25

 

- Aetna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[RandiRona]

That's ok...CCP will save them and Arabs ofcourse...

[Gold Star]

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

[whereyougo]

6 minutes ago, Gold Star said:

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

Haha never. More likely it will take off north again

[arick]

Can somebody tell me what the rating is? I can't seem to see it in the article. 

[welshguy]

17 minutes ago, arick said:

Can somebody tell me what the rating is? I can't seem to see it in the article. 

"

S&P downgraded ratings of Siam Commercial Bank and Kasikorn Bank, from BBB+ to BBB, and Krungthai Bank and TMB Thanachart Bank, from BBB to BBB-."

 

I copied and pasted this from another thread on here....Dont know if its what youre looking for?

[it is what it is]

2 hours ago, Gold Star said:

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

 

no chance.

[ezzra]

8 hours ago, Gold Star said:

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

wouldn't want that to happen, i got <deleted> load of bahts in Thai banks at the moment, not to mention my properties... 

[tonray]

Time to up the Retirement Visa requirements to shore up the banks...ha ha ha...maybe OA Visa "Bank Failure" insurance ?

[blazes]

Could be 1998 all over again. 

[Skeptic7]

3 hours ago, Gold Star said:

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

Hopefully this proves accurate...but the Bulletproof Baht has remained impervious to every sort of detriment for 2 decades running now. Not optimistic and wouldn't be surprised if this just bounces off like everything else has.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Skeptic7

[Skeptic7]

Just now, blazes said:

Could be 1998 all over again. 

Oh for The GREAT OLE DAYS! ????

[itsari]

1 hour ago, arick said:

Can somebody tell me what the rating is? I can't seem to see it in the article. 

BBB 

Next one down is junk status

[khunpa]

What happened to all the Saudis and the millions of super-rich Indians dying to go to Thailand and invest THB 32 mill. for a visa? 
 

 

[Isaan sailor]

3 hours ago, Gold Star said:

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

One can only hope.  That didn’t happen yesterday, as the Baht sailed north.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, arick said:

Can somebody tell me what the rating is? I can't seem to see it in the article. 

BBB down from BBB+

[Benmart]

6 hours ago, ezzra said:

wouldn't want that to happen, i got <deleted> load of bahts in Thai banks at the moment, not to mention my properties... 

.As long as I have my health, food, shelter and friends, the rest is a bonus. No quarantees on savings, investments. Best wishes during these turbulent times.

[itsari]

Thailand has three major war fronts .

Over two years with virtually no tourism and no real chance of recovery with or without normal entry requirements .

Many loans not being paid and placed on hold rather than writing the loans off as that would create a situation that the banks would have to place the money lost in reserve . 

Far higher energy prices that is causing the Government to borrow money to keep the lid on diesel prices . 

 

 

 

[blazes]

25 minutes ago, khunpa said:

What happened to all the Saudis and the millions of super-rich Indians dying to go to Thailand and invest THB 32 mill. for a visa? 
 

 

They died....

[wealthychef]

Maybe stop chasing away tourists with virtue signals around CoVid and make Thailand easy and fun to visit?  I don't know, just a thought.  Or borrow from international banks and submit to their demands, that's an option.  Fun!  

[Old Croc]

3 hours ago, Gold Star said:

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

The AUD is at its highest rate to the Baht for several years. Over 25 again.

 

[SmartyMarty]

Let's get one thing straight....the liquidity crisis has been caused by an inept government, regardless of global conditions. Plenty of other tourism dependent nations have economies thriving.

[DjSilver]

Great news. More like this and the baht will be where it was 10 years ago.

[wombat]

3 hours ago, Gold Star said:

The high flying Baht may get it's wings clipped.

 

1 hour ago, it is what it is said:

 

no chance.

With that pesky treasury buying baht with the money in the foreign exchange account it isn't going to happen.

The flow on from Europe having to pay for gas in Roubles not US dollars is only just starting to be felt.

If I was into doing the currency thing I'd be offloading $US and buying Roubles...the only place that Roubles can go is up in value and the only place $US can go is down.

Congratulations on your sanctions.

Edited March 25, 2022 by wombat

[Boomer6969]

6 hours ago, ezzra said:

wouldn't want that to happen, i got <deleted> load of bahts in Thai banks at the moment, not to mention my properties... 

Yeah, nothing  beats stability when it comes to currencies, hope it stays in the 32-34 range to the USD. Some guys are dreaming of getting a 50% increase on their pensions. Would be just enough to get drunk a couple of times, and then to consequences of the cataclysm would make them even poorer than before.

 

Just got this from my pension fund:

 

"In accordance with the UNJSPF Pension adjustment system, there will be an 8.6 per cent cost-of-living adjustment to the US dollar track of periodic benefits for this year. The adjustment will be applied effective 01 April 2022. Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) letters with these details will be issued by the end of April 2022."

 

Is this good new? Nope.

[RocketDog]

23 minutes ago, blazes said:

50 minutes ago, khunpa said:

What happened to all the Saudis and the millions of super-rich Indians dying to go to Thailand and invest THB 32 mill. for a visa? 
 

 

They died....

Well, their enthusiasm for Thailand certainly did.

I wonder why? (sarcasm)

[Lacessit]

19 minutes ago, Old Croc said:

The AUD is at its highest rate to the Baht for several years. Over 25 again.

 

I wish just once I could time my transfers at peak value, got 24.8 baht last week.

Never mind, I suppose it's better than being Russian.

The guarantee on deposits up to 1 million baht may be next.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, tonray said:

Time to up the Retirement Visa requirements to shore up the banks...ha ha ha...maybe OA Visa "Bank Failure" insurance ?

Why oh why do you have to give the clowns in government ideas?

[spidermike007]

They failed to mention a collapsing condo market, new car sales market, 14% unemployment, high inflation, exploding homelessness and suicide, and an otherwise decimated economy. 

 

The Prayuth Precipice. 

Edited March 25, 2022 by spidermike007

[Old Croc]

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

I wish just once I could time my transfers at peak value, got 24.8 baht last week.

Never mind, I suppose it's better than being Russian.

The guarantee on deposits up to 1 million baht may be next.

I did exactly the same thing thinking it had hit a peak and then watched it continue to rise!