What's the deal with bitcoin now?

[CashMoon]

On 12/7/2022 at 8:15 PM, placeholder said:

We've been hearing that about the banks almost as long as we've been hearing that Jesus is coming any day now.

They have a better alternative than money now.  This time they have blockchain that will even build states. 

 

footnote: We're going to have a lot more crappy days tomorrow. We will watch the starving cannibalized refugees invade Europe. WEF reports are out there. This time, even Switzerland will explode. Europe is making the most unsuccessful policy in history. 

[patman30]

On 12/2/2022 at 9:52 PM, placeholder said:

I think my analogy of keeping money in a bank vs keeping them at home applies to the difference between hot wallets (custodial service) and cold wallets. Except, as we know, banks are a much safer way to store money than are hot wallets in storing crypto.

again, you are out of your depth here, and i am not trying to offend
a hot wallet is not a custodial wallet
a hot wallet is a wallet that is online, so funds can be used
Cold Storage or a cold wallet, is OFFLINE storage, so funds are 100% as completely offline, obviously not ready to spend as offline

you then compare a bank to a hot wallet, due to your misunderstanding
a hot wallet would be akin to the wallet in your back pocket
cold storage is like having a safety deposit box in a vault somewhere
cold storage is how you safely hold coins

i will repeat again
you do not need a custodial service or an exchange to use bitcoin.

[patman30]

On 12/5/2022 at 10:38 AM, CashMoon said:

Cryptocurrency is a life saver, not an investor tool. After the worldwide banking crisis, you will understand the value of blockchain very well. Imagine being unable to touch millions of dollars from your bank in a possible bank crisis. Cryptocurrencies will explode one day, but banks first. 

Crypto is just (the public loses trading) stocks 2.0
it is a joke, nothing but trading on hot air, and completely manipulated
not one coin has lived up to its promises in terms of tech development
crypto will look a complete joke next year with what is being released

[placeholder]

11 hours ago, CashMoon said:

They have a better alternative than money now.  This time they have blockchain that will even build states. 

 

footnote: We're going to have a lot more crappy days tomorrow. We will watch the starving cannibalized refugees invade Europe. WEF reports are out there. This time, even Switzerland will explode. Europe is making the most unsuccessful policy in history. 

Who is eating the "cannibalized refugees"?  Are they being eaten before they get to Europe or are they falling victims to the French, who, it is well know, will eat anything.

[Heng]

back over $18k, *clapping*

[RedArmy]

I have it on good authority that Bitcoin is changing it's name to "White Elephant".

[placeholder]

On 12/14/2022 at 9:52 PM, Heng said:

back over $18k, *clapping*

back under $17k. Still "clapping"?

The thing is, BTC is currently being very lightly traded. Which is in itself not a promising sign of economic health. People who hold BTC still tend to believe in it, but it's not attracting much in the way of new investors. So it's mostly holders trading among themselves.

[Heng]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

back under $17k. Still "clapping"?

The thing is, BTC is currently being very lightly traded. Which is in itself not a promising sign of economic health. People who hold BTC still tend to believe in it, but it's not attracting much in the way of new investors. So it's mostly holders trading among themselves.

The clapping has ceased.  ????     Might be time for another vacation to put my red portfolio out of sight/mind.....

[lkn]

On 11/27/2022 at 1:47 PM, Thailaw said:

And what of value does the US Dollar have "to back it up? Nixon took the Dollar off the "gold standard" in 1971, and since then it has been "backed" by nothing

A dollar bill is a liability for the Federal Reserve, and for each liability, there is a matching asset, which could be treasury bills, mortgage-backed securities, or foreign currency (reserves).

 

It is correct that you can not go to the Fed and exchange your dollar bill for a small piece of gold, but there are still assets backing your dollar.

 

You can question the “value” of it all, but this is where the U.S. economy comes in.

 

The Federal Reserve will buy a treasury bill, let’s say for $1M. This effectively creates $1M, but the government now has a debt to the Fed of $1M, so for this new million to lose its backing, the U.S. government would have to default on their debt.

 

How does the U.S. government ensure revenue to service their debt? They do so by having U.S. citizens and companies pay tax in USD.

 

So the entire population can’t just decide, that the USD is worthless, because they still have to pay tax in USD.

 

 

So the USD is backed by assets, and there is also demand for USD via products sold by U.S. companies (which eventually result in USD demand via taxation), not to mention that many commodities are also traded in USD, though that part could actually change, and likely would cause USD to lose some value, but Apple can’t sell iPhones in BTC and never exchange some of that revenue to USD, because they have to pay taxes.

[redsongthaew]

@lkn Does that mean that if all debt that is denominated in US dollars is repaid, then there would be exactly zero US dollars in circulation?

[Heng]

The USD is an easy target for the crypto crowd (and yes, we're not all gung ho crypto.......I'm pro crypto but also still pro fiat, pro real estate, and pro gold bars), especially with the macro view that looks like we're just printing money to go to war ("and we ain't stopping any time soon") as national economic policy.   

 

There are other better (all subject to debate and opinion too) choices for long term savings that are still fiat.   My SGD holdings through this crypto nosedive has kept the nights warm and cozy....

[lkn]

18 hours ago, redsongthaew said:

@lkn Does that mean that if all debt that is denominated in US dollars is repaid, then there would be exactly zero US dollars in circulation?

Yes, as cash bills are just IOUs, i.e. one dollar bill is an IOU from the Fed that is backed by assets (T-bills, mortgage-backed securities, etc.)

 

So if we “pay them all back” there is no debt = no USD in circulation (in practice though, the Fed will have to “buy them back” by selling their assets).

 

But it’s a little hard to imagine this, as money is credit, without a credit system, we’re back to bartering.

 

For example when buying a house and getting a 30 year mortgage, what really happens is that some of the money, that we are expected to earn over the next 30 years, are given to us now (possibly by the Fed, by having them buy this mortgage), and we use that money to pay for the house, and pay it back once we actually earn the money. This does extend the money supply, because we effectively take future money and spend them now. In theory, the money supply will shrink again, as we pay down the mortgage.

 

In practice though, population and productivity growth causes our money supply to grow. And then of course, economic policy like QE, but the latter is not given, where a constant money supply with a growing population will either make us poorer or lead to deflation.

[save the frogs]

On 12/4/2022 at 10:38 PM, CashMoon said:

Cryptocurrency is a life saver, not an investor tool. After the worldwide banking crisis, you will understand the value of blockchain very well. Imagine being unable to touch millions of dollars from your bank in a possible bank crisis. Cryptocurrencies will explode one day, but banks first. 

I used to think crypto was a scam or a ponzi scheme.

But I think you've hit the nail on the head.

It may only be an investment tool in the initial stages ... it's not meant to be used for investing forever.

Eventually it will likely evolve into sth that replaces the current system and become the standard.

 

 

[FritsSikkink]

23 hours ago, redsongthaew said:

@lkn Does that mean that if all debt that is denominated in US dollars is repaid, then there would be exactly zero US dollars in circulation?

Of course not as people who import US products have to pay them in USD.

[FritsSikkink]

On 12/9/2022 at 7:41 AM, CashMoon said:

They have a better alternative than money now.  This time they have blockchain that will even build states. 

 

footnote: We're going to have a lot more crappy days tomorrow. We will watch the starving cannibalized refugees invade Europe. WEF reports are out there. This time, even Switzerland will explode. Europe is making the most unsuccessful policy in history. 

How will blockchain (a way to store data) build states, clarify please.

[save the frogs]

answer to OP - this is just a GUESS:

 

bitcoin will not become worthless.

.but it will become less volatile (ie it will stabilize) as acceptance and user base grows.

so eventually it will not be used as a way to make money speculating. 

and i suspect this was the plan all along when they introduced it. 

i think they're using the popularity of bitcoin to normalize blockchain currency in the future.

 

 

[save the frogs]

This is from World Economic Forum:

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/12/do-cryptocurrencies-have-a-future-an-expert-explains/
 

Quote

 

The signs now point to crypto commencing its final, terminal phase. 

 

While it is the beginning of the end for crypto, it has brought much good by alerting us to all the inefficiencies and exploitation in the existing system, forcing the authorities and the private sector to reform. And that is the positive legacy crypto leaves.

 

 

[lkn]

2 hours ago, save the frogs said:

it has brought much good by alerting us to all the inefficiencies and exploitation in the existing system

Not sure what “the existing system” refers to. There have been plenty of fines handed out to crypto promoters and actors, exchanges and “DeFi” companies have been banned from operating in many jurisdictions, etc.

 

An exchange like Binance refuse to say where they are actually incorporated, and it is not allowed to operate in the U.S. (for that they have Binance.US, although there seems to be no real seperation between the two), so not really sure what more could be done regarding regulation here.

 

Maybe more international cooperation? But there has always been a few countries where “everything goes”, and grey area stuff gonna gravitate toward these.

 

One could though blame the 3 and 4 letter agencies for not having been pro-active on cracking down on all the obvious fraud in this space, but with half the congress being bought and paid for by crypto, it’s an uphill battle, and in general, the regulators tend to come in after it all collapses and then prosecute the bad actors, as if they come in too early, they may be blamed for “stifling innovation”.

 

Just look at how eight congressmembers tried to stop the S.E.C.’s inquiry into FTX.

[save the frogs]

8 minutes ago, lkn said:

Not sure what “the existing system” refers to.

Not sure. My limited understanding is:

The current version of crypto has been some sort of intermediary phase. 

Digital currencies will be issued by govts and centralized, so eliminating fraud and speculation.

 

 

[lkn]

2 hours ago, save the frogs said:

Digital currencies will be issued by govts and centralized, so eliminating fraud and speculation.

Government shouldn’t have a monopoly on issuing digital tokens, though any issuer of such tokens should comply with the proper regulation, e.g. in the U.S. most of the ICOs / governance tokens are securities and thus covered by the securities act of 1933.

 

Problem is that we have offshore bucket shops that are not subject to any regulation. Having governments participate in this mania does not eliminate the problem.

 

Look at FTX.US or Binance.US, these were (somewhat) compliant exchanges, and yet, many US users would use a VPN to access “the real” exchange where they could do leveraged trades, or stake their coins with an expectation of 10-20% APY.

[placeholder]

On 12/23/2022 at 9:26 AM, save the frogs said:

answer to OP - this is just a GUESS:

 

bitcoin will not become worthless.

.but it will become less volatile (ie it will stabilize) as acceptance and user base grows.

so eventually it will not be used as a way to make money speculating. 

and i suspect this was the plan all along when they introduced it. 

i think they're using the popularity of bitcoin to normalize blockchain currency in the future.

 

 

Once 21 million bitcoins are mined, the mining stops. If the supply can't expand along with an economy, then it's not a currency. 

[placeholder]

On 12/25/2022 at 12:17 PM, lkn said:

Government shouldn’t have a monopoly on issuing digital tokens, though any issuer of such tokens should comply with the proper regulation, e.g. in the U.S. most of the ICOs / governance tokens are securities and thus covered by the securities act of 1933.

 

Problem is that we have offshore bucket shops that are not subject to any regulation. Having governments participate in this mania does not eliminate the problem.

 

Look at FTX.US or Binance.US, these were (somewhat) compliant exchanges, and yet, many US users would use a VPN to access “the real” exchange where they could do leveraged trades, or stake their coins with an expectation of 10-20% APY.

(somewhat) compliant? Really?

[save the frogs]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

Once 21 million bitcoins are mined, the mining stops. If the supply can't expand along with an economy, then it's not a currency. 

maybe i don't know what i'm talking about.

but what i'm saying is it won't be actual bitcoin that becomes the currency.

but govt-issued blockchain digital currencies similar to bitcoin.

bitcoin was only used to popularize the technology because people don't like radical change. 

 

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

maybe i don't know what i'm talking about.

but what i'm saying is it won't be actual bitcoin that becomes the currency.

but govt-issued blockchain digital currencies similar to bitcoin.

bitcoin was only used to popularize the technology because people don't like radical change. 

 

Why? What problems are their with current currencies that bitcoin can solve?

[save the frogs]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Why? What problems are their with current currencies that bitcoin can solve?

this is the only info i've gathered so far.

 

if you watch the video, andrew yang mentions that blockchain can used to store people's medical files. so it stays in the blockchain and goes wherever you go rather than in one particular hospital's database.

 

at 7:41 he mentions municipalities may experiment with local currencies that will help drive people to local small businesses and non-profits. they may issue basic income or some sort of cash payouts that can only be used at local businesses and they will expire your money if you don't use it in 2 weeks.

 

 

 

[lkn]

9 hours ago, save the frogs said:

if you watch the video, andrew yang mentions that blockchain can used to store people's medical files

That is absolutely ridiculous. Do you want thousands of copies of your medical records stored on the internet for anyone to read? That is blockchain!

 

And what problem does this solve? If it is that U.S. hospitals cannot exchange medical records between each other, then that is already solved in other countries, and blockchain is not really a solution, i.e. in its current form, it cannot do it, you would need to agree on a standard for medical records and then have all hospitals update their systems to conform to this standard and be able to read and write to a blockchain. If you do all this work, you might as well just create a proper system without a blockchain, so that medical records are not leaked into the public.

 

9 hours ago, save the frogs said:

some sort of cash payouts that can only be used at local businesses and they will expire your money if you don't use it in 2 weeks

Like a gift card? All this stuff can easily be done without blockchain.

 

Edit: Also, local municipalities can’t just “print money”. Only central banks can “print money” but they take on liabilities when they do so. Most crypto proponents seems to not really understand our monetary system, which is why they think that new tokens can just be brought into the world with some value assigned to them, but unlike fiat currency, they are backed by nothing, so they should be worth nothing.

[pomchop]

dave barry american comedian on crypto and bowl games

 

Jan

In other financial news, more and more people are buying “cryptocurrencies,” which appeal to investors because the cryptocurrency market is not controlled by the government. Instead it is controlled by 13-year-old Justin Weeblemonger of Teaneck, N.J., who runs the whole shebang out of his PlayStation 5. (Justin also controls airline fares.)

In sports, Georgia defeats Alabama in the AT&T Ram Trucks Allstate Capital One Disney Bob’s Burgers Dr Pepper Gatorade Siri Taco Bell Bowl to become champions of professional college football.

[save the frogs]

12 hours ago, lkn said:

Do you want thousands of copies of your medical records stored on the internet for anyone to read? That is blockchain!

apparently, you can give access to sensitive information only to certain people on the blockchain. not sure.

 

the main problem i see is crypto fan boys may become disillusioned because maybe they thought it was sth not controlled by govt, but govts have their paws all over this. 

[FritsSikkink]

On 12/25/2022 at 12:17 PM, lkn said:

Look at FTX.US or Binance.US, these were (somewhat) compliant exchanges, and yet, many US users would use a VPN to access “the real” exchange where they could do leveraged trades, or stake their coins with an expectation of 10-20% APY.

There is no "somewhat compliant", you are or you aren't. They never where.

[Heng]

Nice minor trend reversal again, back over $17k.