USD to THB - any advice on if US Dollar might get any stronger?

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

by how much quarter % or less but not a good time now as elections are coming, timing is everything and BOT doesn't have much of it

"It is notable that the BoT left the door open to a shift in the pace of its policy normalisation. For our part, we think the external environment will increase pressures on the BoT to be more assertive with rate hikes, if it does not want to risk further currency declines," said ANZ analysts in a note."

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-central-bank-hikes-rate-again-maintains-2022-growth-outlook-2022-09-28/

[Mavideol]

14 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

next few weeks?  yeah, probably can't help you.  USD probably gets stronger.  

 

In the next six months, 100% the USD will be stronger than the Baht within that time.   100% this is not the high.   It will go higher.....100%.    

 

50 is coming, but maybe not in the next 6-months.  Maybe over 40, over 42, maybe more.....

 

100% this is not the top for the next six months.

 

100% Bitcoin will make new lows within the next 6 months.

 

 

 

pure non sense speculation or do you have any supporting data to contradict my comment

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Mavideol said:

based on that, the rate should start to move tomorrow then, let's wait and see, I just receive my SS yesterday  at a good rate as it dropped today, thus have a free meal on hand 555

Me too...agreed.

[tomazbodner]

I didn't see this posted in here...

 

China tells state banks to prepare for a massive dollar dump and yuan buying spree as Beijing's prior interventions have failed to stem its currency's worst year since 1994

The People's Bank of China has told major state-run banks to prepare to shed dollar holdings while snapping up offshore yuan, which has continued to fall despite prior interventions, sources told Reuters.

 

From Business Insider

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, tomazbodner said:

I didn't see this posted in here...

 

China tells state banks to prepare for a massive dollar dump and yuan buying spree as Beijing's prior interventions have failed to stem its currency's worst year since 1994

The People's Bank of China has told major state-run banks to prepare to shed dollar holdings while snapping up offshore yuan, which has continued to fall despite prior interventions, sources told Reuters.

 

From Business Insider

We discussed it briefly in a different thread a few days ago. But yes, this is a major consideration also.

[nauseus]

Interesting that, over the last week the USD index (DXY) has fallen from just above 114 to just above 111. The USD is still very strong but this was a noticeable decrease, nonetheless. It was been fair to expect the Baht rate to actually pop back stronger against the Dollar over the same time range, which it just has. So, most of the weakness in the Baht is really just strength in the Dollar. Over time, USD strength is likely to depend on the aggressiveness of the next US Fed rate hike - different factors may arise which may dictate that. If you can afford to split your transfers, it might be better to hedge and send half now, as this might be as good as it gets!  

[nigelforbes]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Interesting that, over the last week the USD index (DXY) has fallen from just above 114 to just above 111. The USD is still very strong but this was a noticeable decrease, nonetheless. It was been fair to expect the Baht rate to actually pop back stronger against the Dollar over the same time range, which it just has. So, most of the weakness in the Baht is really just strength in the Dollar. Over time, USD strength is likely to depend on the aggressiveness of the next US Fed rate hike - different factors may arise which may dictate that. If you can afford to split your transfers, it might be better to hedge and send half now, as this might be as good as it gets!  

Next Fed meeting is not until 3 November, that's a long way off, lots could happen

[Mavideol]

15 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

I didn't see this posted in here...

 

China tells state banks to prepare for a massive dollar dump and yuan buying spree as Beijing's prior interventions have failed to stem its currency's worst year since 1994

The People's Bank of China has told major state-run banks to prepare to shed dollar holdings while snapping up offshore yuan, which has continued to fall despite prior interventions, sources told Reuters.

 

From Business Insider

it somehow had an effect on the market as the Renminbi/Yuan had a drop of 16-17 cents to the USD as on Sept 28-29  it was trading at 7,249 to USD  and today it's trading at  7,116 to USD.... China's economy is shaking and people are struggling to make ends meet with Real Estate bubble and bad loans as people can not afford monthly payments, it appears Xi took the wrong side ally and their exports are down also elections are coming they had to act

1.00 US Dollar =

7.1163329 Chinese Yuan Renmin

China’s Economy Takes Hit From Global Slowdown as Exports Weaken

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-07/china-s-exports-slow-amid-covid-disruption-global-economy-risks

 

[pomchop]

57 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

next few weeks?  yeah, probably can't help you.  USD probably gets stronger.  

 

In the next six months, 100% the USD will be stronger than the Baht within that time.   100% this is not the high.   It will go higher.....100%.    

 

50 is coming, but maybe not in the next 6-months.  Maybe over 40, over 42, maybe more.....

 

100% this is not the top for the next six months.

 

100% Bitcoin will make new lows within the next 6 months.

 

 

 

and i am 100% sure very very few economic  predictions are 100% accurate.

[expat1010]

The macro strategist I follow are all calling for a peak in the USD in the next few months. There is an implicit assumption I. This prediction that inflation has peaked and the Federal Reserve will soon pause rate hikes. 

[itsari]

I think the dollar has peaked .

Jump in now if i was you .

 sent some dollars to a thai bank account for 36,8 a few weeks ago . Missed out on the 38 by thinking it was at its peak .
Hard to judge 

[nauseus]

58 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Next Fed meeting is not until 3 November, that's a long way off, lots could happen

Over time, USD strength is likely to depend on the aggressiveness of the next US Fed rate hike - different factors may arise which may dictate that. 

[nigelforbes]

It's always interesting to try and understand why things happen because that may point at what will happen next.

 

The US Dollar Index is back down to 110, the same level it was at for the first three weeks of September. The index also rose during the last week of August but it didn't retreat the following month. Chartists tell us USD was overbought at the end of last month and I agree.

 

The question is whether its recent retreat was because it was overbought or whether the news that China would sell USD was a key factor. Another possibility is month end dollar sales and settlements as overseas SSc is paid, this is a significant amount of USD exchanged for foreign currency. Yet another possible cause is the BOE announcement of intervention in the gilts markets (markets likely saw that as a policy pivot and guessed the Fed may follow suit). It's worth noting that the US Dollar Index is calculated based on six currencies, one of which is GBP. (euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc).

 

The big issue going forward is Chinese sales of USD although they wont want to do that in such a way as to cause USD to weaken too quickly otherwise they lose a lot of money. The next Fed meeting is in November, unless China overreacts or markets expect the Fed to pivot on inflation policy (highly unlikely, although new data could show it receding), I would guess USD will remain broadly flat until the Fed speaks. I would be very  surprised to see USD head back towards 115, a 20 year high. If those things are correct (and they may not be), that means the current bear market rally in equities is just that, (markets up, currency down) and that equities will resume their downward trend whilst USD stays mostly flat....you may guess things differently.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Edited October 5, 2022 by nigelforbes

[billsmart]

I'm not a money-exchange expert, but I am a US citizen and do have funds in the US, which, on occasion, I transfer to Thailand.

 

I think the exchange rate between USD and THB will continue to rise, but there are two perspectives on this. One is the one you asked, about the USD becoming stronger. The other is about the THB, which has become weaker in general. The exchange rate is a combination of those, and, as many have said above, no one can predict it for sure. 

Some of this will depend on the outcome of the US mid-term elections in November, and a lot will depend on the outcome of the presidential elections in Nov 2024. However, I think the USD will go up in relation to the THB, at least for the immediate future.

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, billsmart said:

I'm not a money-exchange expert, but I am a US citizen and do have funds in the US, which, on occasion, I transfer to Thailand.

 

I think the exchange rate between USD and THB will continue to rise, but there are two perspectives on this. One is the one you asked, about the USD becoming stronger. The other is about the THB, which has become weaker in general. The exchange rate is a combination of those, and, as many have said above, no one can predict it for sure. 

Some of this will depend on the outcome of the US mid-term elections in November, and a lot will depend on the outcome of the presidential elections in Nov 2024. However, I think the USD will go up in relation to the THB, at least for the immediate future.

Historically, elections and their outcomes haven't had much influence on USD value. Only the uncertainty of the outcome causes volatility which is typically short lived.

[billsmart]

4 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Historically, elections and their outcomes haven't had much influence on USD value. Only the uncertainty of the outcome causes volatility which is typically short lived.

Yes, I agree, "historically"..., but the conditions today, especially in the USA (and UK, and many other countries) are such that the results of an election can have a big effect on the citizens' confidence in the government and the economy and consequently affect the currency value. These next two elections in the USA will be some of the most contentious elections we've had in a long, long time. ????

 

[BonMot]

IM0 dollar could peak at 41.5 to 43+ depending on whether US Fed does go to 4.6 and if BOT starts raising rates.

 

I'd say there's a fairly decent probability we will see thb upwards of 41.

 

Elections will have next to no impact in US. Perhaps minor in UK but that is ephemeral as well.

Edited October 5, 2022 by BonMot

[blazes]

Might be worth waiting to see markets' reaction to this coming Friday's release of the September non-farm payrolls.

[BonMot]

20 hours ago, expat1010 said:

The macro strategist I follow are all calling for a peak in the USD in the next few months. There is an implicit assumption I. This prediction that inflation has peaked and the Federal Reserve will soon pause rate hikes. 

I don't disagree.

 

It's all about US rate hikes.

 

Question is does Powell have the balls to break the US economy to rein in inflation. Yet, when inflation if running at 9% Fed funds rate of 4.5% is just pissing in the wind.

Edited October 5, 2022 by BonMot

[n00dle]

23 hours ago, ThoMichael said:

I am thinking I should do it asap?

 

tick tock! you have lost 10k baht since Monday.

[fittobethaied]

I like the forecast on this site. I have followed it for the past 6 months and they have been right on the forecast every month. I'm holding out for 40 to 1 by year's end. After that anything can happen with the world economy being so volatile. It is updated daily.

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast?fbclid=IwAR0JzJu5qTV6zfSo1VSw-AnVbizrXKRdkEkLnJBULHmrBThy4OrPoE3OIH4

Edited October 5, 2022 by fittobethaied
To add another comment which is pertinent.

[BonMot]

21 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Agreed, but BOT absolutely will increase rates, there is no doubt.

Yes, but they may wait on that for some time. The economy is fragile, elections coming and who knows the amount of variable rate loans outstanding especially with consumer debt.

 

I would not be surprised if government forces banksters to absorb rate hikes of 1.5% on consumer debt they are already charging 20%

 

Property loans at 7.5%+ may kill real estate market which is already on life support

[BonMot]

@ThoMichaelSounds like your timeline to transfer is short. I think you missed the big bump.

 

If you believe the US Fed will raise rates than schedule the transfer after the next meeting.

 

The volitility in USD I think has subsided until whatever the next meeting brings.

 

BOT has been buying a lot thb so it's weaker than it appears. Hence, my optimism we could see greater favorable cross rates for USD.

 

THB is not widely traded.

[nigelforbes]

35 minutes ago, fittobethaied said:

I like the forecast on this site. I have followed it for the past 6 months and they have been right on the forecast every month. I'm holding out for 40 to 1 by year's end. After that anything can happen with the world economy being so volatile. It is updated daily.

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast?fbclid=IwAR0JzJu5qTV6zfSo1VSw-AnVbizrXKRdkEkLnJBULHmrBThy4OrPoE3OIH4

That is not a forecast, it merely extrapolates todays rate forward. It is simply not possible to forecast any currency pair forward more than a few days, not with any accuracy, the idea that a pair might be forecast months or years ahead is nonsense.

[nigelforbes]

30 minutes ago, BonMot said:

@ThoMichaelSounds like your timeline to transfer is short. I think you missed the big bump.

 

If you believe the US Fed will raise rates than schedule the transfer after the next meeting.

 

The volitility in USD I think has subsided until whatever the next meeting brings.

 

BOT has been buying a lot thb so it's weaker than it appears. Hence, my optimism we could see greater favorable cross rates for USD.

 

THB is not widely traded.

BOT has not been buying a lot of Baht, they have merely been smoothing out the peaks and troughs, which is what they are obliged to do under BOT's managed floating peg rules.

[AgMech Cowboy]

Yes, the USD will get stronger as the Fed increases the interest rates, unless of course Thailand starts doing the same. However, if Joe continues to give money away then it might go down. ????

[IAMHERE]

Wise will let you transfer that large an amount? All at one go ?

[Iamfalang]

23 hours ago, Mavideol said:

pure non sense speculation or do you have any supporting data to contradict my comment

do you have data to contradict my contradiction?  nope.

 

I'm 100% right, fact.  

 

you'll see. 

[RayOday]

[Skeptic7]

Too late! 

 

But seriously at 16 year highs, don't know what you're hoping or waiting for.????⁉️

Edited October 5, 2022 by Skeptic7