Thailand feels the pinch of lower tourism earnings as second ex-minister queries economic data

[loveushorttime]

Maybe on arrival they can give out free cannabis sample packs and a plant to put out on your hotel balcony. Making it a stoner nirvana.

[anrcaccount]

9 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

After more than 2 years of no travel, I have more money than ever, but sorry mask lovers, I now decide where to go based on whether face masks are ubiquitous or not. I know they’re not technically required in Thailand outside of health care settings, but with just about all Thais apparently still wearing them, I don’t care to be disrespectful. That means Italy, Croatia, Rio, Hawaii, maybe Tahiti next year, but not Thailand or any other Asian country, and that’s despite the fact that I own a condo in Thailand and have an elite visa.

Big factor.

 

Reality is, who wants to come on holiday and feel like they're stepping back into 2020. Pandemic fear-  does not a good holiday make. 
 

Hard to properly relax when most are masked up. If Thailand wants to promote getting tourists back, they need to drop the masks.
 

Not to mention,  it'd do wonders for the psychological well being of the citizens, to move past it. 

[Nabby]

48 minutes ago, loveushorttime said:

At the start of October they changed the free 30 day visa on arrival to 45 days to encourage tourists to stay longer. So far it's in place till early next year.

Thank you!

[Nabby]

56 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

Currently visitors to Thailand with US passports are given 45 days on arrival. No visa needed. 

 

Great news. Thanks!

[Eleftheros]

11 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Now they are showing themselves as who they really are by not voting against Russia just for tourism purposes

Except for Thailand's decades-long policy of sitting so firmly on the fence so firmly it would take a power drill to get them off.

 

They keep in with both China and the US.

 

And even though they were forced in WW2 by the Japanese occupiers to declare war on the Allies, they refused to sign a surrender document at the end of the war, claiming it was unnecessary, on the grounds that the 1942 declaration of war was "unconstitutional and legally void." Six months later, they signed an Anglo-Thai Peace Treaty. That's quality fence-sitting right there.

 

I think that Thailand's view is that when elephants fight, it is the mice that get crushed, so they are happy to stay securely in their mousehole, and big-power rivalry be damned.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Eleftheros
Spelling and clarification

[soalbundy]

4 hours ago, nchuckle said:

I think you’re overselling the all doom and gloom situation. Yes,there are economic pressures,but we’ve had economic crises before. The tourist industry in the likes of Spain hasn’t died to the extent of Thailand and of course the European winter is traditionally the time for Thailand to make hay . Of course ,in a depressed market one has to work harder and become more creative to entice customers ,but this is where Thailand has let itself down badly with a combination of arrogance,hubris and sheer incompetence coupled with no vision . The wrong people are in charge.

Yes I admit it is gloomy. In the past only one or two major countries got into economic difficulties and there was always a saviour on the horizon be it America, China or the IMF but now there is no saviour coming to the rescue, both the big players, the USA and China have economic problems, the mighty Dollar is being challenged as a reserve currency (only talk at the moment) because the Saudis are considering taking the Yuan as payment for oil which would open the flood gates, the US would lose their reserve status and the Dollar would collapse, Americans would have to live within their means and this would have a disastrous effect on Europe. The Chinese are balancing a tight rope with housing debt and massive corruption. QE is no longer an option for central banks, it was the substratum of our problems today so what do they do, raise interest rates every three months to get inflation under control (see Argentina with rates of 75%) but this strangles industry and companies are already over leveraged as it is. One option is now being considered, a world wide digital economy which would give governments total control of your money. There are are also whispers of going back to the gold standard (perhaps why many countries have been buying up gold recently) Whatever, it is now generally recognized that just tweaking the system as before wont do it any more, the system is broken, it can limp on for a few more years to give the technocrats time to build a new system, I have the sneaking feeling that it wont be to the advantage of Mr and Mrs Smith. 

[herfiehandbag]

6 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

There was also the statement from Prawit back about a Month ago to preserve the Foreign Exchange reserves after there was a huge deficit in one month alone.

I am fairly sure the Foreign Exchange Account carried a balance of over $ 235 Billion back about 5 Years ago, but since the ravages of Covid, and the decimated Tourist Industry, I am wondering how much is in the Account now.

All these noises being made from many different sources sort of makes me believe the Account is now near empty.

Somehow it is hard to imagine over $200 billion dollars being left untouched in"reserve" after this regime has controlled it for 8 years!

Edited October 25, 2022 by herfiehandbag

[poohy]

Air fare are triple pre pandemic prices not good for any tourism

Birmingham(BHX) BKK BHX pre pandemic 500 GBP ish this month 30 day rtn ticket  around 1500 GBP 

[Walker88]

3 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Yes I admit it is gloomy. In the past only one or two major countries got into economic difficulties and there was always a saviour on the horizon be it America, China or the IMF but now there is no saviour coming to the rescue, both the big players, the USA and China have economic problems, the mighty Dollar is being challenged as a reserve currency (only talk at the moment) because the Saudis are considering taking the Yuan as payment for oil which would open the flood gates, the US would lose their reserve status and the Dollar would collapse, Americans would have to live within their means and this would have a disastrous effect on Europe. T

The dollar isn't the reserve currency because of oil. It's the reserve currency because it has the largest and most liquid markets...fixed income and equity. Virtually any amount of funds can be moved in and out with no difficulty.

 

Even if Saudi and China move to price oil in yuan, it will make no difference. The yuan is never going to be a reserve currency so long as the CP is in power. Capital restrictions make the yuan almost meaningless.

 

People who are not economists or traders have been barking about the end of the petrodollar for years. It shows a total lack of understanding of international finance.

[Walker88]

2 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Somehow it is hard to imagine over $200 billion dollars being left untouched in"reserve" after this regime has controlled it for 8 years!

Reserves are not some big box of money sitting idle. It is held in various currencies and invested in debt instruments in those currencies.  It serves as a kind of collateral when the govt issues new debt, which the Thai govt has been doing in spades.

 

When the current account goes negative, some reserve assets may be sold off to cover holes in domestic sovereign financing.

[smew]

Reality finally is hitting home, their arrogant approach to foreigners hope will change, but the recovery will be slow. People discovered other better priced places for vacations with  better treatment and stronger appreciation 

[rabang]

8 hours ago, anrcaccount said:

Big factor.

 

Reality is, who wants to come on holiday and feel like they're stepping back into 2020. Pandemic fear-  does not a good holiday make. 
 

Hard to properly relax when most are masked up. If Thailand wants to promote getting tourists back, they need to drop the masks.
 

Not to mention,  it'd do wonders for the psychological well being of the citizens, to move past it. 

I am sitting on a fence and so far I have decided not to return to Thailand mainly due to this reason as well.

[Phil1964]

19 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

A place I stay at has tripled its prices since August.

Brilliant marketing by a greedy owner who obviously can't figure that if rooms don't rent at 1000 baht, then why will they rent at 3000 baht.

Honestly!

 

And yes, it's bloody expensive more than ever here in the UK and I don't personally know anybody who has picked up a decent pay rise to even cover the extra basic living costs. Far flung foreign holidays for me are going to be a memory of the past now, (just glad I did the wanderings around the globe from 1995 to 2019)!

[ozz1]

At the moment  4star    bali hotels are cheaper than Thailand but Thais think the world revolves around Thailand unfortunately it doesn't

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Somehow it is hard to imagine over $200 billion dollars being left untouched in"reserve" after this regime has controlled it for 8 years!

You would be surprised. They are not as addicted to the debt based fiscal irresponsibility, as per Western, developed countries. 

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, ozz1 said:

At the moment  4star    bali hotels are cheaper than Thailand but Thais think the world revolves around Thailand unfortunately it doesn't

I'm headed back to Indonesia in four days - giving Thailand a miss.  I think this is what a lot of people are doing unless they have family or girlfriends there.  

[bangon04]

On 10/25/2022 at 2:23 AM, 10baht said:

Have you looked at Japan or china? Not just Thailand.

and Philippines......

[lujanit]

17 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

And, triple hotel prices?  Have not seen any of that.  Maybe triple from the peak of the Pandemic but not 3 times what they were before.

I used Agoda to book a stay in Hua Hin earlier this week.  I was pleasantly surprised to find that the hotel we usually stay at had vacancies over the Xmas period.  Same price as always and no compulsory Xmas eve dinner, Xmas day lunch at some stupid inflated price.  No this is not a cheap hotel.  Beach front.  This will be our seventh or eighth stay so it must be good, at least for us.

[Cake Monster]

9 hours ago, Phil1964 said:

Brilliant marketing by a greedy owner who obviously can't figure that if rooms don't rent at 1000 baht, then why will they rent at 3000 baht.

Honestly!

 

And yes, it's bloody expensive more than ever here in the UK and I don't personally know anybody who has picked up a decent pay rise to even cover the extra basic living costs. Far flung foreign holidays for me are going to be a memory of the past now, (just glad I did the wanderings around the globe from 1995 to 2019)!

And for sure, there will be many Thousands of potential Tourists around the Globe that will be feeling a very tight squeeze due to Inflationary costs and Fuel costs soaring.

Not just in the UK, but Globally, the pool of Tourists will be shrinking dramatically for the foreseeable future, and this is why Thailand has missed the Boat, due to lack of Infrastructure and Investment in their Tourism Industry.

There is an old saying among Business people.

" Invest in a downturn to reap the rewards when better times come along "

 

[MaiChai]

I believe Thailand needs a reality check; the majority of foreigners come here for the cheap easy living in a warm climate and not to stay in 5 star hotels for 2 weeks. Longer term visas would boost tourism, although the income maybe be less but at least it is foreign income.

[rickudon]

Two factors involved here. First, nearly everyone is finding inflation hurting. Airfares up at least 50% compared to last year or 2019; forget the official UK inflation rate, rents are up 20% in London compared with last year, and fuel bills about 100%. And many employers are offering a derisory 3% pay rise! People not sure if they can afford an expensive flight now.

 

Other factor is many people have been forced to Holiday in their home country the last 2 years, and realise they CAN have a good time there as well. And if your money runs out at home before your holiday finishes, can just pack and go home at no extra cost.

[Rimmer]

An off topic post has been removed

[herfiehandbag]

18 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Reserves are not some big box of money sitting idle. It is held in various currencies and invested in debt instruments in those currencies.  It serves as a kind of collateral when the govt issues new debt, which the Thai govt has been doing in spades.

 

When the current account goes negative, some reserve assets may be sold off to cover holes in domestic sovereign financing.

Yes,of course I realise that. Whilst by no means an expert in fiscal matters I am not a total naif!

 

I am also a realist, and a fairly seasoned observer of how Thai government functions. That is why I remain sceptical about both the level of the reserves, in what and by whom they have been invested, and how available they may be.

[If I should die]

On 10/25/2022 at 7:56 AM, Elkski said:

So how are hotel prices for tourists compared to ore COVID?  Lower?

The TAT or the Government proposed that Thai hotels charge tourists their full rack rate - no discounts at all - to increase turnover.  Brilliant idea, of course, but ... they seem to have forgotten that turnover is price (yes) but multiplied by number of payors and that usually this number falls as the price increases.

[crouchpeter]

On 10/25/2022 at 11:42 AM, kwak250 said:

Eva air direct to bkk booked in April for the start of this month was £480 return .

Not bad as the same flight 3 years ago was nearly the same price.

I've just booked Singapore Air to Paris for February for 1 month. Fare was 20,500 baht rtn. But very hard to book the bargains they advertise!

[crouchpeter]

On 10/25/2022 at 12:57 PM, nchuckle said:

The need for longer term route  planning meant Thailand’s chaotic and ever changing entry rules effectively made it too volatile for BA to commit resources to the route when those could be directed towards more stable options. There was already pre pandemic a move to switch away from Bangkok evidenced by BA using Singapore as the hub for Australia routes which speaks to the arrogance of Thailand regarding making itself attractive to commercial airline operatives. That BA closed the door to reopening for the traditional Thai high season starting about now doesn’t bode well for the chances of them restarting in March (low season) . I don’t think it’ll be considered until at least November 2023. Generals are not good economic forecasters nor understand the principles for attracting  foreign investment . Outside of tourism the structural investment in education and skills have traditionally fallen woefully short and a country that should have been well placed to take advantage of the West’s switch away from China will ,unlike Vietnam,miss out.

A few years ago Thailand upped all their charges for airlines using BKK as their hub. 41 airlines stopped using BKK and went to Singapore. They can't help themselves. Greed is in their DNA.

[crouchpeter]

On 10/25/2022 at 4:09 PM, Ty Hareways said:

Masks have been the biggest joke of the whole covid scene, still see the odd empty-headed moron wearing them in Supermarkets over here????????, even when their partner,be it male,female,non-binary????is maskless.

I think it's the empty headed morons who aren't wearing masks.

[ivor bigun]

11 minutes ago, crouchpeter said:

I think it's the empty headed morons who aren't wearing masks.

The only ones not  wearing masks here in Pattaya are falangs ,hardly saw one wearing one  while out shopping yesterday ,

as for tourists,sorry what are they ,its been so long since we saw any ,ive forgotten what they look like ,as for Tesco N Pattaya yesterday it was almost deserted ,

and everywhere ,seems to be shuttered up .

[Chongalulu]

2 hours ago, crouchpeter said:

A few years ago Thailand upped all their charges for airlines using BKK as their hub. 41 airlines stopped using BKK and went to Singapore. They can't help themselves. Greed is in their DNA.

Interesting,although that’s not so much greed,as stupidity…which also seems to be in the dna ???? !

[geisha]

On 10/25/2022 at 2:34 AM, CygnusX1 said:

After more than 2 years of no travel, I have more money than ever, but sorry mask lovers, I now decide where to go based on whether face masks are ubiquitous or not. I know they’re not technically required in Thailand outside of health care settings, but with just about all Thais apparently still wearing them, I don’t care to be disrespectful. That means Italy, Croatia, Rio, Hawaii, maybe Tahiti next year, but not Thailand or any other Asian country, and that’s despite the fact that I own a condo in Thailand and have an elite visa.

Nothing to do with masks . You must be one of very few that give up their chosen destination because    many of  their citizens wear masks !!