Even as the baht surges, Thailand faces economic recession in mid-2023 with lower earnings

[ikke1959]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

BOT and Finance will have determined the optimum level for THB, given the current economic circumstances both nationally and globally. 34/35 seems reasonable to me. A Baht that is too strong means exports become expensive and unattractive, too weak and imports such as oil become expensive plus inflation risks increase. That's what he means, it's not that he's incompetent, it just means you don't understand what was said or why.

Sure... expensive THB makes things more expensive to buy, you get less THB for the same amount of money so Thailand is getting more expensive....Maybe you understand? To buy foreign currency it is good with a strong THB I have to pay less, but most exports and tourists change their foreign currencies into THB and get less so more expensive and more expensive is less selling. Do you understand?

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, Dialemco said:

Unfortunately Russian aggression is causing recession in many countries therefore there are not the same number of potential tourists to be able to travel to Thailand or anyway else in addition air fares have risen at least double prepandemic levels. 

Quite, with many countries around the world facing recession obviously a lot of incompetant governments about.

Thailand is suffering from global events, unlike the UK which is partially self inflicted.

[nigelforbes]

30 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

Exports falling as more to do with the Worlds Economy at this present time, and also competition from other Nations.

Thailand has a heavy reliance upon the CCP, and with that Economy in a slide, it is going to domino into Thailands GDP also. The CCP is steadily losing some of its business to India now, and other Nations such as Vietnam, are more progressive than the Thai structure for Business, and also taking Business away from Thai shores.

Tourism that accounts for roughly 18 % of GDP in Thailand will also slide away in 2023/4 .

With what appears to be rampant Inflation within the Country, and an insane amount of lending by Banks to people with little or no means of full repayment on their Loans taking Household Debt to nearly 100 % of GDP, the Country has dug as very deep hole to encourage Consumer spending with a zero safety net.

Hence the warnings from the IMF

 

A few points, in order to keep perspective:

 

Thailand's inflation rate as of Oct 22 was 6.41%, according to the IMF, that's hardly rampant by comparison.

 

Tourism accounts for 18% of GDP but only about 11% of that is international tourism, the remainder is domestic tourism which largely still remains to a greater or lesser degree.

 

Thai exports to CCP were USD 36.5 bill in 2021, the total value of Thai exports in the same year was USD 295 bill., about 12% of total exports went to CCP, not quite a heavy reliance.   

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/THA

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=world

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports/china

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/exports#:~:text=Thailand exports for 2021 was,a 20.41% decline from 2019.

 

 

[nigelforbes]

7 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Sure... expensive THB makes things more expensive to buy, you get less THB for the same amount of money so Thailand is getting more expensive....Maybe you understand? To buy foreign currency it is good with a strong THB I have to pay less, but most exports and tourists change their foreign currencies into THB and get less so more expensive and more expensive is less selling. Do you understand?

Whoosh!

[soalbundy]

Be thankful, we are still better off than being in Europe at the moment and the UK is in a right mess. I read that a top notch German restaurant near the Black Forest has had to take its traditional Christmas dinner, a top favourate, of goose off the menu because it has become unaffordable even for the well heeled. The reports there of electric bills doubling and people being afraid to heat their homes makes our situation look easy.

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Once lost due to the insane currency, it wont be back in a hurry.

"predicting the Thai economy to enter recession in the opening quarter of 2023"

 

How strange is that?

 

The UK economy shrank in the third quarter, signaling the start of a recession that is likely to hit Europe next.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/11/economy/uk-economy-recession-europe/index.html

[hotandsticky]

12 minutes ago, sandyf said:

"predicting the Thai economy to enter recession in the opening quarter of 2023"

 

How strange is that?

 

The UK economy shrank in the third quarter, signaling the start of a recession that is likely to hit Europe next.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/11/economy/uk-economy-recession-europe/index.html

 

 

My money is on the Thai Treasury still reporting positive growth figures...............................

[Eric Loh]

Can conclusion be drawn based on one assumption from the KKP, one month of export decline and comment from one foreign tourism industry leader. We are smarter than that. 

[petermik]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

So I had every right to complain!

No....your just a moaning old fallang....

[The Theory]

4 hours ago, sqwakvfr said:

Going from 38 to 35 is now the definition of “Surging”?  Back in 2013 it was 28 to $1 USD.  If it went back to that level then I would say “surging and boom, boom”.  

Surprise 34.70 

But of course  this is not real value of Baht. In fact the real rate could be $1 = 38 or even lower value. I'm not an expert, but I guess holding the Baht strong could damage the economy in long term since this is not a solution to the problem. For short time could save some faces.

Edited December 2, 2022 by The Theory

[Jackbenimble]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Not sure about that....other countries were taking similar measures and that would have had the same effect on Thailand. The far higher death rates would have had impact too. A recession was inevitable. I thought all the people comparing Covid, that killed 6.5 million, to 'flu' had learned to keep quiet, but no, they still carp on with their fool's message.

How about we get back to the topic...... 

The plandemic was man made but not in a laboratory. The stats don't lie. 99.7% people were not going to die from it yet every media outlet was under instructions to make the worlds population think that "they" could die from it. It was a very well orchestrated ruse. It demonstrated just how easily controlled and manipulated the human race is. 

[spidermike007]

It is impossible for these goons to predict the severity of the next recession, much less the length of it. This is sheer nonsense. It is likely to be sustained, rather than lasting a quarter or two. And the economy here is weak, and highly susceptible. 

[sandyf]

16 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

My money is on the Thai Treasury still reporting positive growth figures...............................

It doesn't really matter what is reported or what people think about is being reported.

Reality is in the exchange rate and prices on the street and effect of that will depend on personal  circumstances.

We are no worse off as the pandemic pushed us into a different way of life. During the pandemic we used the WTT scheme quite a bit and now instead of going out and about so much locally we go away for a few days now and again.

Just come back from a couple of days down in Chantaburi, stayed at The Pride in Laem Sing one night for 508 baht, and it was 75 baht for a large Chang at the beach restaurants.

Last time I stayed at The Pride it was over 1000 baht, not everything is being subjected to huge price increases as many want to make out.

[carlyai]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

So I had every right to complain!

That would be every house in Thailand. 

$4 for say 20mill people a month adds up.

[blazes]

These figures are as of December 1st.

The only currency that counts is the US dollar.  All other currencies are measured against it.  The dollar index (DXY) has been extremely strong this past year.  It has ranged from 94 to 114.  It was as high as 114 as recently as September. 

 

While the pound was hit by Trussonomics and sank to 1.05, it has now strengthened thanks to dollar weakening.  When the dollar was strong, the

euro was at par (and less than par).  And so on.

Nothing much to do with Thailand or Russia. 

 

 

[Isaan sailor]

If you look at the Baht movements the way chartists look at stocks—you would see highs and lows vs other currencies.  Looking at the recent lows—you can see the USD near a six-month low.  The Euro and the Pound each near only one-month lows.  Clearly FedSpeak to blame here.  Traders expect an end to interest rate hikes (not likely) and a return to 2% inflation (not for a very long time).

[hotchilli]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand faces an economic recession in the middle of 2023 with growth only rebounding in the third quarter of the year to come in at 2.8%, below this year’s GDP growth projections, according to an economic forecast released this week from a research house associated with a leading Thai bank.

That doesn't match TAT's view on next year.

[nigelforbes]

5 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

That doesn't match TAT's view on next year.

That's a different solar system entirely.

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, Jackbenimble said:

The plandemic was man made but not in a laboratory. The stats don't lie. 99.7% people were not going to die from it yet every media outlet was under instructions to make the worlds population think that "they" could die from it. It was a very well orchestrated ruse. It demonstrated just how easily controlled and manipulated the human race is. 

You may very well have a point there.

[KhunLA]

3 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

I have just read that the pandemic caused over 6 million deaths.

Now I read it is 14.9 million deaths. What are the real figures not counting the ordinary flu?

Your guess would be as good as anyone else's.

 

Unless someone I know died from, (and none), then they are as irrelevant as the other 60+ millions dying yearly that I don't know, can't help or do anything about.

 

On Topic ... what made the baht strong during the 'situation', lock downs, Trump (gets blames for everything, why not), RU or CH, Junta.

 

At least it wasn't my fault ... not sure if that's a pro or con ????

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Thailand's inflation rate as of Oct 22 was 6.41%, according to the IMF, that's hardly rampant by comparison.

And yet, frozen chips are up from 99bht to 165bht in Makro.

Which would make chip inflation 65% in Thailand.

(Oddly enough, potato prices remain unchanged)

Edited December 2, 2022 by BritManToo

[Pawpcorn]

5 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I am concerned about electricity prices which I am told will rise substantially in the New Year..... had a go at the Mrs last night as to why we had a rice cooker on for hours on end!

I've started running my Carrier wall air conditioner in "Dry" mode these recent months (which makes the compressor run at 40% less power) and I've noticed about a 700 Baht per month reduction in my electricity bill. Google this mode of operation, if you doubt me. ????

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

And yet, frozen chips are up from 99bht to 165bht in Makro.

Which would make chip inflation 65% in Thailand.

Shocking, absolutely dreadful, I don't know how the poor expats get by.

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, Pawpcorn said:

I've started running my Carrier wall air conditioner in "Dry" mode these recent months (which makes the compressor run at 40% less power) and I've noticed about a 700 Baht per month reduction in my electricity bill. Google this mode of operation, if you doubt me. ????

We've been doing the same for a couple of years, a reduction of about 600 baht per month during the rare times we actually use it.

[StayinThailand2much]

7 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Once lost due to the insane currency, it wont be back in a hurry.

True. And the headline of the article is misleading: "Even as..." - A strong baht has never helped Thailand, as it relies on cheap exports and holiday destinations.

Edited December 2, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[jacko45k]

3 hours ago, petermik said:

No....your just a moaning old fallang....

Her attitude was 'I forgot, so what?'....guess who pays the bills!

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, Jackbenimble said:

The plandemic was man made but not in a laboratory. The stats don't lie. 99.7% people were not going to die from it yet every media outlet was under instructions to make the worlds population think that "they" could die from it. It was a very well orchestrated ruse. It demonstrated just how easily controlled and manipulated the human race is. 

Nonsense....I thought we had put such buffoonery behind us a year ago. Nurse, he is out of his bed again!

[Pawpcorn]

8 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

We've been doing the same for a couple of years, a reduction of about 600 baht per month during the rare times we actually use it.

Yup! I noticed the effect on the bill, since my bedroom a/c is turned on and running (set at 28°) 22 hours a day, since I`m in discomfort mode, over 28°, in the bedroom, anyway. Sleep time now gets set to 23.5°, as per my spouse`s request. ????

[jacko45k]

24 minutes ago, Pawpcorn said:

I've started running my Carrier wall air conditioner in "Dry" mode these recent months (which makes the compressor run at 40% less power) and I've noticed about a 700 Baht per month reduction in my electricity bill. Google this mode of operation, if you doubt me. ????

No. I  have heard of this option and had it suggested to me....I have a 'night' mode which runs things in low and raises the setpoint a degree. 

Dry mode may give you a dry throat ... it is suggested if it is humid but not hot. 

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Jackbenimble said:

The plandemic was man made but not in a laboratory. The stats don't lie. 99.7% people were not going to die from it yet every media outlet was under instructions to make the worlds population think that "they" could die from it. It was a very well orchestrated ruse. It demonstrated just how easily controlled and manipulated the human race is. 

Are you quite sure about that?

 

That is a very large number of MSM, social media, radio, TV, newspapers, magazines and websites in 197 countries across the whole world.

 

It also means that those 197 countries all agreed on a single theme which I cannot believe.