Pattaya operating at near full capacity

[Leaver]

Just now, newnative said:

Neither. 

 

So, it's all fake news.  Is that right? 

 

1 minute ago, newnative said:

I'm looking for actual statistics, not opinions from this person or that association. 

 

There are quotes from the Thai restaurant owner.  Does she need to show you her books? 

 

Are you suggesting she is lying?

 

2 minutes ago, newnative said:

Where are your actual statistics to back up your claim? 

 

Business closures.  Simple as that.

[newnative]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

AN member newative is quite vocal on this issue, particularly with residential property, but also with retail and hospitality.   

 

     I have no idea whether there is or is not an oversupply of bars--or anything else.  Nor do I lose sleep over it.  I have been 'vocal' that supply and demand will eventually sort things out if there is too much of this and too little of that.   I have been 'vocal' that some businesses succeed and some fail--which Leaver finds cruel and heartless--but that's the world of business.   

    I have corrected Leaver when he makes incorrect statements.  Such as T21 opening 700 new stores and 700 older stores elsewhere went out of business, for a net gain of 'zero'.   Actually, that's pretty cruel to think that, especially when it isn't true. 

     I have tried to explain retail synergy to Leaver, without success.  For him, it will always be 700 stores open, 700 other stores must fail.  I have tried to explain to Leaver why the number of studio condos for sale matters not a whit when I am selling a 2 bedroom condo, also without success.  I have tried to get Leaver to stop misquoting me, to stop selectively editing me, and to stop putting words and thoughts in my mouth that I didn't think or say, also without success. 

[kinyara]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

 

Once again, why are you solely focused on "the numbers" and not the "spend" or baht? 

 

For example, how much money do Walking Street businesses make out of pedestrian traffic who are only there to observer and take photos?

 

It's the old case of Walking Street is busy, but the businesses on Walk Street are not, hence, it's all about "the spend" and not the numbers. 

I'm not solely focussed on tourist numbers, as I said and as you quoted me I have not yet seen any official baht figures reported yet for this high season. I presume you haven't either so don't have any value or actual factual knowledge to add to that aspect of the discussion. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

16 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Can only comment on Chiang Mai earlier this week.

Loads of real tourists around, a couple asked me why so many business (of all sorts) are locked and shuttered.

Went to the bars in Loi Kroh, again half are closed, and the open ones mostly empty.

There were a couple of busy bars, but most were more girls than customers.

We refer to the shuttered businesses as the "Prayuth Decimation". It is a very sad thing to witness. Those are devastated lives, in many cases. I know some Thais who spent their life savings trying to keep their business alive, while the government floundered, and flip flopped on the atrocious restrictions for 2 years. Try Prayuth at the Hague. 

[spidermike007]

17 hours ago, mikebell said:

Just spent 8 days in Chaweng; it was bursting at the seams; cannabis shops open all over; taxi mafia minting money hand-over-fist. Never saw one cop.

I was there over Christmas. Got a seaview room near the beach, with a last minute booking. The hotel was operating at 50% occupancy, at best. In the past, you could not find a room that easily. It seemed busy to you. But, bookings are way, way down. 

[scubascuba3]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

     I have no idea whether there is or is not an oversupply of bars--or anything else.  Nor do I lose sleep over it.  I have been 'vocal' that supply and demand will eventually sort things out if there is too much of this and too little of that.   

Pattaya doesn't follow normal demand and supply principles, one poor performing bar sells to a poor sucker who wants to live the dream of minging bar ownership and bar girl girlfriend, they run out of money and sell to the next sucker and so it continues, that's why there is oversupply of bars, same story Indian restaurants now

[jacko45k]

7 hours ago, internationalism said:

I have just spend several days at Jomtien, my hotel was empty, I came accross only several guests.

Parkings at neaby hotels empty. Very few lights from rooms at night, less than 10%.

I have looked at one of hotels for future stay - I have seen only one room rented.

Empty side street restaurants.

But many shoppers at food markets in the evenings, all tables taken.

The majority are Russians speakers. They won't stay long - they likely came on charter flights for 2 weeks. Tour buses taking them half empty 

Not sure you see everything or misinterpret... but I too could be doing that!

I have a lot of pals who live in Jomtien, and they all seem to mention the same thing, a lot of Russians there. Last  weekend I was in Big-CX and it was packed in the afternoon... Chinese New Year may have been the reason. I have seen Russians in banks, and hear a lot of them are attending immigration... I suspect many have longer plans if they can get work of some form... (maybe naughty on-line things).  The Indians were doing that a few months before.... every other shop house on Klang or 2nd is an Indian restaurant. This place is going to fill up.... Chinese next.

[newnative]

3 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Pattaya doesn't follow normal demand and supply principles, one poor performing bar sells to a poor sucker who wants to live the dream of minging bar ownership and bar girl girlfriend, they run out of money and sell to the next sucker and so it continues, that's why there is oversupply of bars, same story Indian restaurants now

     Perhaps that's true--I don't know anything about the bar scene and don't post about it.  I think it is true for most everything else.  A good example of supply and demand was on display during covid.  A number of the 7-11s in the north Pattaya area where my partner and I were living at the time closed down.  There was just too much supply and not enough demand from local residents and domestic tourists to support all of them.  We were left with a few that stayed open--that was enough for the demand at that time.

     At this same time, we were renovating a house on the Darkside and we were over there a lot.  We didn't notice a single 7-11 that had closed down.  Perhaps a few did but we never saw a closed one.  The ones we saw in the areas we were at were all open and doing a brisk business.   Why?  Even during covid there were still plenty of people living on the Darkside--still producing enough demand for the supply. 

    Recently, here on the Darkside near Lake Mabprachan, a brand new 7-11 opened right across the street from an older, smaller one.  There is also a third 7-11 about a hundred yards down the street at the gas station.  Will all 3 survive?  We'll see.

    

[DonniePeverley]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:46 PM, hioctane said:

Wrong. In the middle of Covid, prices were considerably lower.

They really weren't 

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, DonniePeverley said:

They really weren't 

Hotels (those that remained open)  were substantially lower as they struggled to have any customers beyond the Covid refugees.... beer bars were also cutting prices. Not sure it went far beyond that... some of the cheap eating places for farangs maybe, recall Robin Hood having some deals. 

[hioctane]

4 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Hotels (those that remained open)  were substantially lower as they struggled to have any customers beyond the Covid refugees.... beer bars were also cutting prices. Not sure it went far beyond that... some of the cheap eating places for farangs maybe, recall Robin Hood having some deals. 

Massages were cutting their rates to 100 baht. TF prices were generally cheaper. Airbnb was cheaper. 

 

So basically we covered almost everything. Things were cheaper.

[hioctane]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I was there over Christmas. Got a seaview room near the beach, with a last minute booking. The hotel was operating at 50% occupancy, at best. In the past, you could not find a room that easily. It seemed busy to you. But, bookings are way, way down. 

This Christmas? My friend was there for 10 days. He didn't prebook. He ended up having to bounce from hotel to hotel because he couldn't find a hotel in Central Pattaya that had a available room for his whole stay.

[kinyara]

19 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Hotels (those that remained open)  were substantially lower as they struggled to have any customers beyond the Covid refugees.... beer bars were also cutting prices. Not sure it went far beyond that... some of the cheap eating places for farangs maybe, recall Robin Hood having some deals. 

99 baht breakfast, I enjoyed it several times. Don't bother frequenting the place now as all I read on the restaurant reports is how high the RH prices are compared to other venues. I was getting my regular quality Bangkok hotels for between 450-600, outstanding value, now they are 3 times that. It was at least a good time to take advantage of what was on offer.

[pomchop]

yes Pattaya is pretty busy right now...but....has there been a year in recent history when the snowbirds don't start to return to their home countries in the springtime?  And regular tourists prefer to avoid the off season weather of Thailand when it is hotter, rainier, smokier? 

 

It is simply a more pleasant time to visit most areas of Thailand between Nov and March,,,add to that those are often freezing cold weather months in a good chunk of the world and no big surprise.  Also the summer months in Thailand are often the very best months to be in North America/Europe etc due to good weather there.

 

Maybe the Russians and Chinese and Indians will pour in even more during normal soft season but I don't see that happening with tourists from North America/ Europe.

 

The condo where I live is pretty full right now...but the property managers say check back in late March or April as lot of people leaving then.

[sandyf]

14 hours ago, Peabody said:

Title of article?

 

"Pattaya operating at near full capacity"

What does that actually mean, maybe you think that capacity was not affected by the pandemic.

This is Pattaya beach New Years Eve 2020, wouldn't take many to increase the visitors by 100%.

Everything is relative, if related.

 

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

 At this same time, we were renovating a house on the Darkside and we were over there a lot.  We didn't notice a single 7-11 that had closed down.  Perhaps a few did but we never saw a closed one.  The ones we saw in the areas we were at were all open and doing a brisk business.   Why?  Even during covid there were still plenty of people living on the Darkside--still producing enough demand for the supply. 

The problem is many cannot see past what happens in the tourist areas and think that is the situation widespread.

Covid affected different areas in different ways and many for the better. I live between the Chonburi bypass and the No 7 and that area grew significantly during the pandemic, many who worked elsewhere sold up, returned home and invested locally. That growth brought about investment from the big boys with large concerns popping up all around. Downside, it has added about 10 minutes on a run to the airport.

It is all about supply and demand and it will be a long time before Thais will want to supply demand from tourist areas distorting the term "busy".

[phetphet]

Looking at that beach photo in the article, I can see it is only 'near full capacity'. There are still a few patches of sand that don't have deckchairs on them. ????

[newnative]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

So, it's all fake news.  Is that right? 

 

 

There are quotes from the Thai restaurant owner.  Does she need to show you her books? 

 

Are you suggesting she is lying?

 

 

Business closures.  Simple as that.

    Well, except you didn't quote the restaurant owner, did you?  Instead, you said she is 'going broke'.  Did she actually say that?  No.  What she said was things have been 'quiet' and some restaurant owners have been having 'financial problems'.  She also said that some restaurants have not 'fully recovered'.  Makes sense and that's quite different from incorrectly saying she is 'going broke'.  As you do so often with me, you are putting words in her mouth that she didn't say--and didn't mean.

    So, no I am not, as you say, 'suggesting she is lying'.  You are the one doing the lying.  The 'fake news' is coming from you.  In any case, I still prefer hard statistics, not someone's opinion or observation on a subject.  For example, you said in another post that McDonald's had put all the other hamburger shops in Orlando out of business.  Hmm. I didn't know that.  Had not read about that anywhere.  Seems like it should have been on the news.  Now, should I believe the claim of just one person, you, or maybe ask for some statistics that back up your claim?

[Will B Good]

Operating at full capacity...........but concerned that the lack of international flights is affecting number of tourists visiting?????

[BigStar]

12 hours ago, Dave0206 said:

Usually when there is an overwhelming amount of bars in relation to customers every 2nd bar has a for sale sign 

That someone here says there isn't an oversupply? OK, who?

[BigStar]

12 hours ago, internationalism said:

The majority are Russians speakers. They won't stay long - they likely came on charter flights for 2 weeks. Tour buses taking them half empty 

Could other Russians also visit, or have you discovered that this will be all, no more?

[BigStar]

12 hours ago, Leaver said:

Usually inflated, and does not take into account Chinese owned businesses, where in many cases, the money doesn't even get to Thailand's shores. 

No, YOUR figures are not inflated, of course. They are totally real, 'cause you know. So, again, what are they? 2019 - 2022.

 

12 hours ago, Leaver said:

Here's your spend, zero baht.

 

Irrelevant. 2019 - 2022. Still waiting. Guess it was just the usual hot air. How surprising. Again, why not just take a course in basic economics to help you answer all your portentous questions yourself, without wasting our time, and then come back to post something possibly useful? 

 

<further nonsense snipped>

 

 

 

[internationalism]

36 minutes ago, BigStar said:

Could other Russians also visit, or have you discovered that this will be all, no more?

there would be much less russian speakers, when charted flights stop flying at the beginning of hot season. Around mid March. Half empty flights and bus tours (as I have spotted) can't be sustained outside season.

They are coming all the time, but don't stay for months. Just a few weeks holidays on package tours.

Yes, they were coming in large quantities since november 2021 (test&go), yet before war has started, but for most of them visa is an issue. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by internationalism

[BigStar]

13 hours ago, Leaver said:

Not changing the subject.

Good. Except, for some reason we still don't have your spend numbers 2019 - 2022 as defined above. Where are they?

[scubascuba3]

3 hours ago, newnative said:

     Perhaps that's true--I don't know anything about the bar scene and don't post about it.  I think it is true for most everything else.  A good example of supply and demand was on display during covid.  A number of the 7-11s in the north Pattaya area where my partner and I were living at the time closed down.  There was just too much supply and not enough demand from local residents and domestic tourists to support all of them.  We were left with a few that stayed open--that was enough for the demand at that time.

     At this same time, we were renovating a house on the Darkside and we were over there a lot.  We didn't notice a single 7-11 that had closed down.  Perhaps a few did but we never saw a closed one.  The ones we saw in the areas we were at were all open and doing a brisk business.   Why?  Even during covid there were still plenty of people living on the Darkside--still producing enough demand for the supply. 

    Recently, here on the Darkside near Lake Mabprachan, a brand new 7-11 opened right across the street from an older, smaller one.  There is also a third 7-11 about a hundred yards down the street at the gas station.  Will all 3 survive?  We'll see.

    

I think living the dream businesses such as bars, indian restaurants aren't the same as businesses like 7 Eleven that seem to follow normal rules

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

I still prefer hard statistics, not someone's opinion or observation on a subject. 

I always prefer personal observations from members.

Hard statistics are easily manipulated and not really meaningful (especially the ones published by TaT).

[newnative]

46 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I always prefer personal observations from members.

Hard statistics are easily manipulated and not really meaningful (especially the ones published by TaT).

    Personal observations have their place, of course.   But we have a member who observes some Chinese at 7-11 and Family Mart and he then posts that the Chinese tourists only shop and eat at 7-11 and Family Mart, with no other Thai businesses benefitting.   We have another member who observes that his favorite Pattaya bar is not busy so, therefore, Pattaya is not 'thriving'.  

    I think hard statistics can be meaningful.  Less than 500,000 international tourists in 2021.  About 11 million in 2022.  531 billion baht spent in Thailand by tourists from one country in 2019.  Both stats are meaningful, in my opinion.  2021 was a big black eye for TAT.  Why didn't TAT pad the numbers?  Same for 2014, the year of the coup--the tourists numbers dropped and I'm sure the coup generals were not happy to see tourism drop on their watch--TAT could have curried some favor by padding the numbers and likely nobody would have been the wiser--but there's that glaring drop in black and white.

[Peabody]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

What does that actually mean, maybe you think that capacity was not affected by the pandemic.

This is Pattaya beach New Years Eve 2020, wouldn't take many to increase the visitors by 100%.

Everything is relative, if related.

 

You missed the "Who said..." reference

[Seppius]

4 hours ago, phetphet said:

Looking at that beach photo in the article, I can see it is only 'near full capacity'. There are still a few patches of sand that don't have deckchairs on them. ????

That picture is from 2018, the beach has been expanded since then

 

 

[ozimoron]

16 hours ago, Leaver said:

Once again, why are you solely focused on "the numbers" and not the "spend" or baht? 

 

For example, how much money do Walking Street businesses make out of pedestrian traffic who are only there to observer and take photos?

 

It's the old case of Walking Street is busy, but the businesses on Walk Street are not, hence, it's all about "the spend" and not the numbers. 

I guess you haven't tried to get a seat in many of the better walking street bars lately. They are generally full or close to it. Last night I needed to sit near the door in pinup until someone left from a better seat. There was a competition between me and a Korean to grab the newly vacated seat but I won. XS was likewise full and I had to wait for a seat to open up. In Dollhouse downstairs I had to sit up against the dance floor on a stool which my back doesn't like.