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Thailand mentioned as a place that Russians are fleeing their war to

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1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

Well I think you're being overly emotional. Russians abroad tend to have close networks with other Russians  Such Russians would be the only people that would have more informed opinions about what percentage of the Russian "tourists" here are actually dodger/refugees.

I am being the very opposite of emotional, I'm not interested in them, their country or their opinions.  I am only interested in how their collective criminal actions in Ukraine will be resolved so that Russia loses this unjust and criminal war.   

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  • Indonesian authorities are helping many Russians and Ukranians to stay in Bali. They are working there as digital nomads with online work. Others will come to support with schools, restaurants, proper

  • OR ... simply holidaying at ... but what kind of headline would that be????

  • There might be a million such Russians globally. Many of the men have brought their entire families with them or love partners. Back in Russia they are portrayed as villianous traitors   As

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Russians are also pouring their cash into Phuket’s property sector in the absence of Chinese tourists

 

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3203078/russians-fleeing-ukraine-war-seek-refuge-thailand-boost-tourism-property-investments

If I'm a condo seller, I'm so thrilled that I'm naming my first born Ivan.

 

If I'm a condo renter, well, there's always some out-group threatening my peace of mind when its lease renewal time.

 

Real estate arguments are fun because it's the ultimate realm of 'it depends'. In Nimman, an apartment goes in 2 days. A kilometer way, not so much.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Doctor Tom said:

I am being the very opposite of emotional, I'm not interested in them, their country or their opinions.  I am only interested in how their collective criminal actions in Ukraine will be resolved so that Russia loses this unjust and criminal war.   

I understand that but this is a war of Putin's choice committed against Ukraine. It might last a very long time but it won't last forever. There are and will be massive implications for the futures of both countries whoever wins or perhaps neither side wins.

You don't have to be interested in the Russian diaspora. Up to you.

There is also a Ukrainian diaspora.

But as far as Thailand is concerned it is the Russian diaspora that may have very large numbers here. There are very few Ukrainians here.

*Deleted post edited out*

 

To the extent that Russians are disproportionate among tourists given their population numbers it evidence that the surplus are draft dodgers.

If 80K new draft dodgers are arriving a month, dwarfing all other expat populations, I'm surprised it's not a bigger story. Does it feel like Pattaya is absorbing tens of thousands of new Russians, month after month? A million Russian new residents in a year at that rate?

 

I wonder how many financially well enough to leave-draft dodgers there are left to leave after a year of emptying out of the country, and presumably more were concentrated in the early months.

 

Def a demographic hit for already on its knees Russia. A lot of those moneyed, educated people are def gone for good.

  • Author

Well I have heard Jomtien immigration has been packed with Russians seeking residence documentation so they can open bank accounts.

Normal tourists do not need Thai bank accounts!

Again, how many Russians does it take to pack a couple of local immigration offices -in already Russian-centric places? I'm not saying you don't have a lot of Russians, with more coming.

 

I am saying that it's unlikely that they will dwarf all other western expats combined in the next 10 months. Partic with a likely peace deal in the next few months. 

 

I opened a bank account with only a TM 30 form and did not need to involve immigration at all. But visa  etc. discussions are well above my pay grade.

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6 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

Again, how many Russians does it take to pack a couple of local immigration offices -in already Russian-centric places? I'm not saying you don't have a lot of Russians, with more coming.

 

I am saying that it's unlikely that they will dwarf all other western expats combined in the next 10 months. Partic with a likely peace deal in the next few months. 

 

I opened a bank account with only a TM 30 form and did not need to involve immigration at all. But visa  etc. discussions are well above my pay grade.

I think uou're underestimating the issue but of course you're entitled to your opinion. Agree to disagree.

As far as a peace deal in a few months I rate that highly unlikely.

I also don't think you get the long term negative impact on Russia after the war.

Many or most won't want to go home to Russia regardless.

 

Russia's def speeded up their decline with this, but 1M draft dodgers departing out of 140M people is not the end of the world for them. Sure, it's the semi-cream of the crop, but it's still less than 1%. You see upper middle class types leaving, not oligarchs.

 

Long term problems with future oil contracts and being international Johnny No-mates are a bigger problem then tax-avoidant global nomads jumping ship. They're basically Iran now. Quite a step down.

 

Reading the comments in that Wash Post article, they're wearing out their welcome in Georgia and Turkey and are now popping up in Brazil in such numbers as to warrant having an orthodox priest move there to christian babies. Problem: a lot of spies drift in with the draft dodgers, making them even less welcome. 

 

Like our own fine selves, they're tolerated until they cost money or grief. 

On 2/15/2023 at 3:00 PM, Srikcir said:

These Russians are not refugees as defined in the article. Not that it would matter in Thailand that does not recognize refugee status in general. To stay in Thailand they must meet visa requirements as specified by law.

Thailand does have many visa types and extensions ranging from exempt visa, 30-60 day visas/visas with annual extensions to a 10 year visa. 

But, should Russian men who have left Russia for reasons other than legitimate vacation (article specifies they are not tourists) are qualified for conscription ( ie., can breathe), Putin might declare their flight from Russia as a criminal act and request Thailand to deport them back to Russia. Thailand government will be very "sensitive " to such a request.

And very likely not want to upset putin any way, therefore do his bidding.

2 hours ago, LaosLover said:

If 80K new draft dodgers are arriving a month, dwarfing all other expat populations, I'm surprised it's not a bigger story. Does it feel like Pattaya is absorbing tens of thousands of new Russians, month after month? A million Russian new residents in a year at that rate?

 

I wonder how many financially well enough to leave-draft dodgers there are left to leave after a year of emptying out of the country, and presumably more were concentrated in the early months.

 

Def a demographic hit for already on its knees Russia. A lot of those moneyed, educated people are def gone for good.

Obviously not all of them are draft dodgers but yes, it does feel like half of Russia has come to Pattaya. There's no shortage of links about hundreds of thousands of Russians fleeing the country and plenty of links about how Thailand is a favoured destination for Russians. Probably a lot of Russian tourists are now choosing Thailand instead of Europe for vacations. Unfortunately for us old codgers, the young Russians are mopping up the available talent.

Is it ever possible to get with a single Russian woman on a non-pay basis? Are there many unattached Russian women there?

20 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Obviously not all of them are draft dodgers but yes, it does feel like half of Russia has come to Pattaya. There's no shortage of links about hundreds of thousands of Russians fleeing the country and plenty of links about how Thailand is a favoured destination for Russians. Probably a lot of Russian tourists are now choosing Thailand instead of Europe for vacations. Unfortunately for us old codgers, the young Russians are mopping up the available talent.

Interesting and I know nothing about the levels of wealth of Russians, however is it true that tens / hundreds of thousands of Russian can buy tickets to leave Russia* every month, and have the funds to survive long-term / very long-term away from Russia?

 

* There's been other media reports** that putin has been draining prisons / starting new compulsory conscription activities to get more / older / younger men into the army, so are there no restrictions on buying tickets to fly out?

**But as with any subject/situation nowadays what media reports can you believe? So much fake news etc etc. 

1 minute ago, scorecard said:

Interesting and I know nothing about the levels of wealth of Russians, however is it true that tens / hundreds of thousands of Russian can buy tickets to leave Russia* every month, and have the funds to survive long-term / very long-term away from Russia?

 

* There's been other media reports** that putin has been draining prisons / starting new compulsory conscription activities to get more / older / younger men into the army, so are there no restrictions on buying tickets to fly out?

**But as with any subject/situation nowadays what media reports can you believe? So much fake news etc etc. 

My understanding is that Putin is not interested in fomenting a coup by allowing the wealthier Muskovites to leave the country. Hence, air travel is less restricted than land borders. The usual political double standard. The Russian army is comprised more of poorer easterners and Chechens.

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Putin has talked about a great cleansing of Russia in regards to the people leaving. While clearly losing so many high skilled people is very bad long term to Russia's economy, Putin's top priorities are preserving his own life and his regime's power. He has a great fear of ending up like Quadaffi. People that leave are people he doesn't need to worry about revolting against him inside Russia. It's understandable that Russian nationalists call them traitors and also that anti Putin people call them cowards for not staying and fighting Putin although most are not into politics. But its more complicated than that. Each person that has made the momentous decision to leave has gone through their own unique process. Most can't leave of course because of finances and being stuck there for typical reasons of family obligations etc.

 

Contrary to the fake news comment current Russian policies on allowing out and in are very knowable although a moving target.

9 hours ago, scorecard said:

Interesting and I know nothing about the levels of wealth of Russians, however is it true that tens / hundreds of thousands of Russian can buy tickets to leave Russia* every month, and have the funds to survive long-term / very long-term away from Russia? 

Google tells me that median salary in Russia is somewhere between, $450 and $750 a month. 

 

That's why more Russians are washing up in Georgia or Turkey than will even show up in Thailand; they can drive, not fly, to those places.

 

And since I went to a good school, I know that median means that half of Russians are making less than say, $150 a week. That's quite a vacation dream to have in Thailand on 728 baht a day.

 

For those guys, the draft avoidance plan means moving to Mama's basement.

 

Nice to see Super-Joe rubbing Putin's face in it today in Kiev.

 

He's on a political time clock too. The repubs dare not "lose Ukraine", which means they're stuck whining about improbable WWIII fantasies from the side lines but still have to sign off on the big outlays -which will be a massive win for Joe to campaign on.

 

Def. the best president of my lifetime. I pray for a debate between winner Joe and serial loser and Putin rent boy, Trump, on this. 

 

Mr "I could have stopped it with a phone call" is going to have to show the receipts or get laughed off the stage. I can't tell you the number of times I have heard this from depressive drunks over here (which is not -in this case- code for English people).

  • Author

Well of course Thailand will never compete with Russia's nearby countries (except Belarus and western ones that need a visa they can't get now) for numbers of Russian dodger/refugees. Thailand on top of being much further away has a great long term option of the Elite card, but for that you do need to pay a good chunk of money.

My impression is some of the Russians are praying things will develop quickly enough so that they can come home (to a diminished Russia but it's still home) and others would prefer or feel they never can go home. Their first foreign destination is not necessarily their last and probably usually isn't their last. Georgia gives a year at a time but that could change on a dime.  I think depending on how the war goes more permanent opportunities for Russians might get better in some countries. I would be surprised if Canada doesn't take a lot of them especially the prized brainy drainy ones and Argentina seems to be trending. 

12 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Well of course Thailand will never compete with Russia's nearby countries (except Belarus and western ones that need a visa they can't get now) for numbers of Russian dodger/refugees. Thailand on top of being much further away has a great long term option of the Elite card, but for that you do need to pay a good chunk of money.

My impression is some of the Russians are praying things will develop quickly enough so that they can come home (to a diminished Russia but it's still home) and others would prefer or feel they never can go home. Their first foreign destination is not necessarily their last and probably usually isn't their last. Georgia gives a year at a time but that could change on a dime.  I think depending on how the war goes more permanent opportunities for Russians might get better in some countries. I would be surprised if Canada doesn't take a lot of them especially the prized brainy drainy ones and Argentina seems to be trending. 

A German told me today that Germany provides Russians with refugee status.

 

Given the spying problem, I don't see a lot welcome mats being put out for them. Given the problems with  ethnic Russians in Crimea and Estonia, I don't see how good coding skills quells those suspicions. They're not even that welcome in Coney Island, NYC, after having a few generations to ingratiate themselves.

 

I def don't see any gov. in N. America gagging to take them in -and if they do, Biden will be ringing them up. Same with Latin America. The world is awash in less troublesome refugees. Being Russian more than cancels out being white.  

Try: Cuba. Oof,  in Putin's pocket. Plus: not that nice.

  • Author

Countries need to be careful not to take too many of them, because then they might be a target of "liberation" of Russian speakers. Georgia is legitimately worried about that considering Putin already stole 20 percent of their land. 

  • Author
3 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

Given the spying problem, I don't see a lot welcome mats being put out for them. Given the problems with  ethnic Russians in Crimea and Estonia, I don't see how good coding skills quells those suspicions. They're not even that welcome in Coney Island, NYC, after having a few generations to ingratiate themselves.

 

I def don't see any gov. in N. America gagging to take them in -and if they do, Biden will be ringing them up. Same with Latin America. The world is awash in less troublesome refugees. Being Russian more than cancels out being white.  

Try: Cuba. Oof,  in Putin's pocket. Plus: not that nice.

Well the younger, educated, English speaking, and skilled ones can probably get into Canada based on their normal merit based point system. 

 

I don't know the details but I have heard from multiple sources that Argentina may not be officially welcoming them but is easy. It used to be overstaying in Argentina had very minimal consequences (a small fine when leaving) but I haven't kept up on their visa policies. 

This table, which lists all Russian asylum claims (gays, whistle blower, draft dodgers etc) shows that hardly anyone is taking hardly any of them. 

 

https://www.worlddata.info/europe/russia/asylum.php

 

It only goes to 2021. Do you think people are more or less inclined to accept Russian refugees right now?

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4 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

This table, which lists all Russian asylum claims (gays, whistle blower, draft dodgers etc) shows that hardly anyone is taking hardly any of them. 

 

https://www.worlddata.info/europe/russia/asylum.php

 

It only goes to 2021. Do you think people are more or less inclined to accept Russian refugees right now?

I think since the war the view of potential Russian asylum seekers has both improved and been degraded at the same time.

 

His oppression of LGBT has recently got more severe.

The mobilization where they are sending absurdly inappropriate and untrained people into a meat grinder. 

vs.

Negative views of Russia in general which does rub off on perceptions of Russian people (fair or not). 

Yes, the spy thing. 

 

But again a lot of these Russians are more educated and higher skilled and have chances to be accepted on their economic value without political considerations. 

10 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Well the younger, educated, English speaking, and skilled ones can probably get into Canada based on their normal merit based point system. 

 

Canada is much less racist than America. They will happily take an Asian or S.Asian coder with less headaches attached. 

 

What country IS famously racist to the deranged level where its recent former President was actually wishing out loud for Norwegian Immigrants? Where their whiteness, their only marketable aspect, would be cherished? 

 

Oof: No way, no double-way. Even Trump would prefer a Guatemalan.

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4 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

Canada is much less racist than America. They will happily take an Asian or S.Asian coder with less headaches attached. 

 

What country IS famously racist to the deranged level where its recent former President was actually wishing out loud for Norwegian Immigrants? Where their whiteness, their only marketable aspect would be cherished.

 

Oof: No way, no double-way. 

Not sure where you're going with this, but the political backlash against immigration in the USA is generally targeted at non-whites. Nobody is complaining about Brits slipping in, and of course the white nationalist factions tends to identify with Putin's Russia in sickening ways. 

That said, I don't see current official U.S. immigration policy changing very much in response to Russian people's desires.

I am less ga-ga impressed than you at the sheer brain power of the Russians I meet over here. They're all  Chess-Masters too, am I right? The number of atom-splitters will be on the low side. I see a lot of web designers.

 

That's a great skill, but the world hardly has to bend over backwards and institute wildly unpopular refugee policies to get coders. Just dial 1-800-INDIA.

 

Brain Surgeons? Feel free to apply. Oof: you can't be an immigrant brain surgeon, even in Europe. They already have brain surgeons. With local licenses.

 

The trend around the world is overwhelmingly towards LESS refugees and has been for a generation, at least. In no place are people demanding MORE, particularly problematic ones.

 

I would think culturally-similar Finland would be a great fit. Oof: They particularly hate them there. Everyone near them hates them. Say what you will about a Haitian staggering ashore in Miami; no one hates him, they just don't want him to show up.

 

I am unaware of a Brit immigrant underground in the states. Maybe some visa over-stayers working in bars.

 

No wait, those are all Oi-rish.

  • Author
6 minutes ago, LaosLover said:

I am less ga-ga impressed than you at the sheer brain power of the Russians I meet over here. They're all  Chess-Masters too, am I right? The number of atom-splitters will be on the low side. I see a lot of web designers.

 

That's a great skill, but the world hardly has to bend over backwards and institute wildly unpopular refugee policies to get coders. Just dial 1-800-INDIA.

 

Brain Surgeons? Feel free to apply. Oof: you can't be an immigrant brain surgeon, even in Europe. They already have brain surgeons. With local licenses.

 

The trend around the world is overwhelmingly towards LESS refugees and has been for a generation, at least. In no place are people demanding MORE, particularly problematic ones.

 

I would think culturally-similar Finland would be a great fit. Oof: They particularly hate them there. Everyone near them hates them. Say what you will about a Haitian staggering ashore in Miami; no one hates him, they just don't want him to show up.

 

I am unaware of a Brit immigrant underground in the states. Maybe some visa over-stayers working in bars.

 

No wait, those are all Oi-rish.

Yeah you're right about the Irish, ha ha. 

Yes, I think Brits usually go through legal channels (and they aren't quick or easy either). 

Interesting point possibly true about the general Russia skill levels. I'm also wondering with the AI revolution whether 90 percent or more of the coders in the world will be out of work. 

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