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Analysis: Like It Or Not, Prawit Most Likely To Become PM


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Posted

Well if Thailand was a true democratic country, this would not happen. I still think of

Thailand as a Kingdom, so I am not surprised with Prawit being able to get into power.

  If course I am a Canadian with only limited knowledge of Thailand politics. 555

Posted
1 hour ago, Stargeezr said:

Well if Thailand was a true democratic country, this would not happen. I still think of

Thailand as a Kingdom, so I am not surprised with Prawit being able to get into power.

  If course I am a Canadian with only limited knowledge of Thailand politics. 555

But you do have experience of living under a less than popular leader?

  • Haha 1
Posted
42 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

The fix is already in for Prawits turn... and seems Prayut is out in the cold?

And quite likely will be changing his address?

Or maybe not.

  • Like 2
Posted
4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

And that would be the worst possible outcome for Thailand, and would insure it keeps moving backwards, for years to come. He is incapable, a terrible leader, not particularly swift, and despised by all but a few. And did I mention the likelihood that he is seriously corrupt? I guess that goes without saying. 

And the Thai establishment based media seems quite ok with promoting such things.

Going along to get along.

Shameful.

Posted
19 minutes ago, 2baht said:

10,000 people on the streets protesting will achieve squat!

Symbolic street protest accomplish little or nothing. 

Revolutions, on the other hand.......

????

Posted

This is going to upset The Doors fan, Mr mojo risin. 

He seems to think Pheua Thai supporters will rise upen masse if PT are denied the premiership.

But Thaksin will make a deal with Pravit to join forces and form a government in order to come back.

Never mind Pravit was part of the coup.

Never mind the rumours of corruption under his watch.

Everything will be forgiven if granddad can come home.

The red shirts? Most will be happy so long as a few populist policies are wheeled out. 

The educated red shirts will move to Move Forward.

 

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Posted
4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

And that would be the worst possible outcome for Thailand, and would insure it keeps moving backwards, for years to come. He is incapable, a terrible leader, not particularly swift, and despised by all but a few. And did I mention the likelihood that he is seriously corrupt? I guess that goes without saying. 

The thing that is missed is that if he's not the party in power his power is diminished greatly.  It is the party in power that has the power not the person. He can say what he wants but if ff and pt have more members in house he may not get it. 

  • Thumbs Up 1
Posted
1 hour ago, 2baht said:

10,000 people on the streets protesting will achieve squat!

A few hundred thousand in Bangkok would do nicely... every day until the rigged system is changed.

  • Like 2
Posted

The analysis is not what most want but is a realistic outcome. PTP will win the majority of the House of Representatives and MFP taking the second best. They unlikely to partner due to different stance on the subject of LM. PPRP in my opinion will be the third largest winner with BJT close behind followed by UTNP. Assuming that election outcome, the 250 senators are the king maker and Prawit will be in pole position with PTP and BJT coalition. Prayut will never accept any role in Prawit administration as it would be a severe lost of face to accept any ministerial position. 

  • Like 1
Posted
3 hours ago, 2baht said:

Yes, what can 60 million people do? ???? Almost makes you pity them!????

Grow a backbone and say enough is enough for starters.

 

But the majority won't and will stick with their status quo, all brought upon by themselves.

  • Like 1
Posted
5 hours ago, HaoleBoy said:

Poor Thai people ...

Even if they vote differently their junta written Constitution is against the people with the junta appointed Senate.

I agree with you for this election. However the Constitution also have a expiration term for this senators. All were appointed in 2017 and the term is 5 years i.e. 2023. Also important is that the selection and appointment of the current senators by the Royal Thai Army in 2017 by royal decree may change. The panel may not followed the previous army dominated preference to appoint mostly loyalist military personnels. Better still the constitution could be amended for elected senators. I feel Prawit may open to such change. 

  • Like 2
Posted
4 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

The thing that is missed is that if he's not the party in power his power is diminished greatly.  It is the party in power that has the power not the person. He can say what he wants but if ff and pt have more members in house he may not get it. 

I agree with you up to a point.

 

Firstly, the PPRP has to win enough seats to nominate a PM candidate.

 

Secondly, the party that wins the most seats but not enough for an overall majority will need a coalition partner.

 

Thirdly, between them they will nominate the PM candidate, BUT the larger partners choice should be the only one.

 

Fourthly, we have to assume that the PTP will win the most seats, but not an overall majority and that they will take the PPRP on as a junior coalition partner,

 

Fifthly, the EC and associated agencies will not find it so easy to frig the results this time and get away with it , nor will it be so easy to ban elected politicians and political parties this time around.

 

Whilst Thaksin may have a lot of sway over the PTP it relies on the voters and not him. He hay agree in principle to have the PPRP as a coalition partner, and get him elected as PM, but then again this is Thai politics which is full of smiling faces and political back stabbings.

  • Like 1
Posted
5 hours ago, bannork said:

This is going to upset The Doors fan, Mr mojo risin. 

He seems to think Pheua Thai supporters will rise upen masse if PT are denied the premiership.

But Thaksin will make a deal with Pravit to join forces and form a government in order to come back.

Never mind Pravit was part of the coup.

Never mind the rumours of corruption under his watch.

Everything will be forgiven if granddad can come home.

The red shirts? Most will be happy so long as a few populist policies are wheeled out. 

The educated red shirts will move to Move Forward.

 

Well....that'll take our minds off the important things. 

????

Posted
5 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Grow a backbone and say enough is enough for starters.

 

But the majority won't and will stick with their status quo, all brought upon by themselves.

Something like a lot of western countries where people support a party no matter how bad it or it's head are.

Posted
11 hours ago, Stargeezr said:

Well if Thailand was a true democratic country, this would not happen. I still think of

Thailand as a Kingdom, so I am not surprised with Prawit being able to get into power.

  If course I am a Canadian with only limited knowledge of Thailand politics. 555

Lol and north America can brag about the great leaders they have Putin place.  Petit Pierre us doing such a good job.

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