Thailand records economic slowdown as decline in exports outweigh tourism gain

[webfact]

Representational image. ANI

 

A positive economic growth was seen in Thailand due to exports last year. However, growth slowed as the demand from the United States and Europe declined

 

Thailand recorded slower economic growth as recovery in tourism and domestic consumption failed to offset the fall in exports. The Asian nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 2.6 percent in 2022, a rise from 1.5 percent recorded the previous year, due to rise in consumption and private investment.

 

While core inflation in Thailand rose 6.1 percent, consumption increased 6.3 percent during the year. However, in the fourth quarter the country’s economic growth slowed. On the other hand, the services exports expanded 94.6 percent in the quarter. A positive growth was seen in the economy due to the exports last year, but as the demand from the United States and Europe declined, so did the country’s GDP.

 

Tourism, which makes up nearly 20 percent of Thailand’s GDP, continued to gain traction. Travel in Thailand went back to normal in the second half of 2022 after all the COVID-related entry restrictions were ended by the government. 

 

Full story: https://www.firstpost.com/business/thailand-records-economic-slowdown-as-decline-in-exports-outweigh-tourism-gain-12168922.html

 

-- © Copyright Firstpost 2023-02-18

 

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[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, webfact said:

Travel in Thailand went back to normal in the second half of 2022 after all the COVID-related entry restrictions were ended by the government. 

Not quite correct. Many did not start travelling again until this year and then the Chibese lifted their ban as well. The majority of tourists also since December are Russian.

 

Seems the decline in exports is also being seen with the swing in the baht, where it was not expected to occur due to tourism. Speculation is the driving force and to me is like a stock pump and dump.

[sammieuk1]

On that bad news or any news in fact up will rise the Baht ????

[Blumpie]

We're seeing a lot of pent up demand in tourism but the numbers are hardly strong.  With the recession as good as booked (a few are saying soft landing but most say this is nothing more than wishful thinking) it will be far harder to fly about.  Not to mention the pilot shortages.  

The days of cheap flights are completely and utterly over.  All the money the airlines lost in the pandemic will be made up by travellers.  

theres a lot of drag out there and frankly I just dont see any way that it will come back substantially for a few years yet.  

[mikeymike100]

7 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

We're seeing a lot of pent up demand in tourism but the numbers are hardly strong.  With the recession as good as booked (a few are saying soft landing but most say this is nothing more than wishful thinking) it will be far harder to fly about.  Not to mention the pilot shortages.  

The days of cheap flights are completely and utterly over.  All the money the airlines lost in the pandemic will be made up by travellers.  

theres a lot of drag out there and frankly I just dont see any way that it will come back substantially for a few years yet.  

Yes you are correct, the price of flights is still way too high for many, still 100-200 % above what they were, pre - covid? Many folks were able to fly because they hadn't been able to for two years, or so, and had saved up and were eager to travel? Unless the price of flights reduces significantly I believe some people still won't and will wait?

[Blumpie]

3 minutes ago, mikeymike100 said:

Yes you are correct, the price of flights is still way too high for many, still 100-200 % above what they were, pre - covid? Many folks were able to fly because they hadn't been able to for two years, or so, and had saved up and were eager to travel? Unless the price of flights reduces significantly I believe some people still won't and will wait?

Many people take several trips a year.  I foresee them taking one instead, if at all.  

I agree that pricing in arrival fees is silly but that's not what a traveller sees when they want to go to Thailand, nor do they necessarily care.  The airfare and the hotel cost is going to drive down demand, I guarantee it.  And its hardly a profound statement, its not only common sense it's something that we are seeing in all countries around.  

It is no longer easy, fun, or inexpensive to fly.  Indeed it's the opposite - its stressful and expensive now.  Id be very pessimistic on buying stocks related to tourism.  (airline stocks are not included in this)

[ikke1959]

If the articles are too expensive because of the strong THB people will by less or find other cheaper suppliers... That is  normal economy.. The so called strong THB is damaging a lot although some think different...expats get less income, tourist have to pay more for hotels etc as they get also less THB for their currency.....Happily the THB is weaking now

[nigelforbes]

The Baht is within it's long term normal range, if anything it's weaker than normal because of recent USD strengthening and recent outflows:

 

 

 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

Edited February 18, 2023 by nigelforbes
add USDI

[Blumpie]

34 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

If the articles are too expensive because of the strong THB people will by less or find other cheaper suppliers... That is  normal economy.. The so called strong THB is damaging a lot although some think different...expats get less income, tourist have to pay more for hotels etc as they get also less THB for their currency.....Happily the THB is weaking now

It's weakening because the greenback is so strong.  recession fears.  When the recession ends or doesn't arrive the THB will go right back up as will most currencies.  

[ThailandRyan]

Another OP up and running which will cause the baht to strengthen because of speculation in the Tourism industry of Billions being spent is the supposed Millions of Chinese flying in on over 1400 flights per day.

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Another OP up and running which will cause the baht to strengthen because of speculation in the Tourism industry of Billions being spent is the supposed Millions of Chinese flying in on over 1400 flights per day.

What is speculation in the Tourism Industry?

 

If you mean that articles in the newspapers about tourism cause the baht to appreciate, well, what can I possible say! Hint: for the Baht to strengthening or weaken, it needs to be purchased or sold against USD, there really isn't a short cut to that.

Edited February 18, 2023 by nigelforbes

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

What is speculation in the Tourism Industry?

Really Nigel, you know what it is, stop baiting and trolling.

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Really Nigel, you know what it is, stop baiting and trolling.

I'm deadly serious, answer the question and tell us how it works.Speculation, in the context of foreign currency exchange, has a defined meaning. "Currency speculation exists whenever someone buys a foreign currency, not because she needs to pay for an import or is investing in a foreign business, but because she hopes to sell the currency at a higher rate in the future (in technical language the currency "appreciates")".

 

https://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/1998/0598weller.html#:~:text=Currency speculation exists whenever someone,the currency "appreciates").

 

But that only works when the currency is freely convertible, which the Baht is not. So tell us, who is speculating and how, or do you mean something else entirely?

Edited February 18, 2023 by nigelforbes
clarity

[ThailandRyan]

Predicting or guarantying as the words this government uses in many Stories in the media as well as statements by TAT, The PM, and the BOT are just speculatory, but then you know that. Heres one for you, "I predict that a bird will drop a deuce on my car today, and when it happens my prediction is right, but when it does not happen then I just speculated it would.

 

https://www.powerthesaurus.org/prediction+speculation/synonyms

 

https://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2022/07/thailands-visitor-arrivals-could-pass-30-million-in-2023/

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-prime-minister-foreign-tourists-30-million-2023-3259781 

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Predicting or guarantying as the words this government uses in many Stories in the media as well as statements by TAT, The PM, and the BOT are just speculatory, but then you know that. Heres one for you, "I predict that a bird will drop a deuce on my car today, and when it happens my prediction is right, but when it does not happen then I just speculated it would.

 

https://www.powerthesaurus.org/prediction+speculation/synonyms

 

https://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2022/07/thailands-visitor-arrivals-could-pass-30-million-in-2023/

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-prime-minister-foreign-tourists-30-million-2023-3259781 

That's not currency speculation in any shape or form and if you don't understand that you shouldn't even be using the word in this context!

 

That's BOT and the PM taking the TAT international tourism forecasts for the year and regurgitating them for different audiences or being quoted by different media outlets/newspapers etc. What people chose to do with that information, speculate on its basis or ridicule it, is entirely up to them. Speculation my big toe!

[ikke1959]

13 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Predicting or guarantying as the words this government uses in many Stories in the media as well as statements by TAT, The PM, and the BOT are just speculatory, but then you know that. Heres one for you, "I predict that a bird will drop a deuce on my car today, and when it happens my prediction is right, but when it does not happen then I just speculated it would.

 

https://www.powerthesaurus.org/prediction+speculation/synonyms

 

https://www.ttrweekly.com/site/2022/07/thailands-visitor-arrivals-could-pass-30-million-in-2023/

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-prime-minister-foreign-tourists-30-million-2023-3259781 

It is no use... he doesn't understand it.....so ThailandRyan i agree with you totally.. predictions estimates, expectations that is where Thailand Tourism is build on, differences of arrivals and tourists, but globally costs for travelling are rising, people have less money to spend and will seek holidays near home, etc that is unknown here.. IMO I think Thailand had it easy.. tourists always came and they did not need to do anything for it.. but now they have to attractive for tourists and that is difficult with all kind of rules....anyway, it is not my business and I can't solve their problem.

[itsari]

Tourism could fall flat in Thailand in the coming months going by the number of hotel bookings . Coupled with the slow down in exports we may see a reversal of the baht strength of the past two months .

 

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, itsari said:

Tourism could fall flat in Thailand in the coming months going by the number of hotel bookings . Coupled with the slow down in exports we may see a reversal of the baht strength of the past two months .

 

Yet according to another poster Tourism doesn't play a role in the baht's swings based upon the speculative nature this government uses.  To me it is like a stock pump and dump and then a rehash again and again.  Yet he states it is based upon the strength of the USD.........regardless.  He must be a billionaire, but I doubt that.  I speculated on gold and won, speculated on crypto currency and won, speculated on energy stocks and won, but then to him that's not speculating either, well maybe not, more like gambling.

[nigelforbes]

18 minutes ago, itsari said:

Tourism could fall flat in Thailand in the coming months going by the number of hotel bookings . Coupled with the slow down in exports we may see a reversal of the baht strength of the past two months .

 

It will be interesting to see what happens.

[KhunLA]

Should have left that THB @ 37/$1 USD ????

[trainman34014]

No worries; any bad news will be 'rectifed' by the Thai's and before you know it everything will be 'booming' !

[Cake Monster]

5 hours ago, mikeymike100 said:

Yes you are correct, the price of flights is still way too high for many, still 100-200 % above what they were, pre - covid? Many folks were able to fly because they hadn't been able to for two years, or so, and had saved up and were eager to travel? Unless the price of flights reduces significantly I believe some people still won't and will wait?

Flight prices are well above the pre-Covid prices, and will remain high for the short to medium term for sure.

There are now many other factors playing into the drop in Tourism.

The artificially strong Baht being one of them.

Travelers are more cost conscious than they were even just a couple of Years ago, and now they are  taking their Vacations in Countries that are offering more " Bang for the Buck ", or are Holidaying in their Home countries.

The fall in Exports and in General Manufacturing has been seen for several Months now by those that walk about with open Eyes.

The Workers do not have the Overtime now that they once enjoyed, they are being more Mobile in looking for work and just a few Baht a Day extra in wages.

With Inflation wayyy above the quoted number, there are a lot of people really hurting now, and if they are hurting, the Banks will surely follow soon.

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

Flight prices are well above the pre-Covid prices, and will remain high for the short to medium term for sure.

There are now many other factors playing into the drop in Tourism.

The artificially strong Baht being one of them.

Travelers are more cost conscious than they were even just a couple of Years ago, and now they are  taking their Vacations in Countries that are offering more " Bang for the Buck ", or are Holidaying in their Home countries.

The fall in Exports and in General Manufacturing has been seen for several Months now by those that walk about with open Eyes.

The Workers do not have the Overtime now that they once enjoyed, they are being more Mobile in looking for work and just a few Baht a Day extra in wages.

With Inflation wayyy above the quoted number, there are a lot of people really hurting now, and if they are hurting, the Banks will surely follow soon.

On the other hand, at least 75% of tourists who visit Thailand are from ASEAN and East Asia,  increased flight costs are therefore not a huge consideration. 

[nigelforbes]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yet according to another poster Tourism doesn't play a role in the baht's swings based upon the speculative nature this government uses.  To me it is like a stock pump and dump and then a rehash again and again.  Yet he states it is based upon the strength of the USD.........regardless.  He must be a billionaire, but I doubt that.  I speculated on gold and won, speculated on crypto currency and won, speculated on energy stocks and won, but then to him that's not speculating either, well maybe not, more like gambling.

Nope, that isn't what was said. What was said was, International Tourism doesn't play much of a DIRECT role in moving the Baht exchange rate, this is because USD is rarely involved in tourist currency transactions. International Tourism does however play an INDIRECT role in that International Tourism spending stimulates  the economy and the foreign currency causes the Foreign Currency Reserves to grow. The renowned economist Chartchai Parasuk confirmed this in his column dated 26 January in the Bangkok Post, in case you don't believe me.

[nigelforbes]

6 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

It is no use... he doesn't understand it.....so ThailandRyan i agree with you totally.. predictions estimates, expectations that is where Thailand Tourism is build on, differences of arrivals and tourists, but globally costs for travelling are rising, people have less money to spend and will seek holidays near home, etc that is unknown here.. IMO I think Thailand had it easy.. tourists always came and they did not need to do anything for it.. but now they have to attractive for tourists and that is difficult with all kind of rules....anyway, it is not my business and I can't solve their problem.

Once again, 75% of International Tourists are from ASEAN and East Asia, how much closer to home do you want them to vacation!

[connda]

Good.  Let's see the THB drop against the USD.

[nigelforbes]

30 minutes ago, connda said:

Good.  Let's see the THB drop against the USD.

And watch the price of gasoline and diesel increase, and all that entails.

[Gknrd]

Thailand the Bitcoin of Asia. 

[nigelforbes]

8 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Thailand the Bitcoin of Asia. 

It's Baht, the Bitcoin of Asia, the currency, not the country, sheesh!

[Freed1948]

8 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

It's Baht, the Bitcoin of Asia, the currency, not the country, sheesh!

Always negative.