Move Forward Scores Surprise Victory; Pita To Become PM

[webfact]

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat campaigning before yesterday’s general election. Photo: Sanook.com

 

By Thai Newsroom Reporters

 

THE MOVE FORWARD has scored a huge surprise victory in yesterday’s (May 14) general election with party leader Pita Limjaroenrat confirming he is ready to run the country as prime minister and put his party’s campaign promises to work.

 

According to unofficial 83% results of the nationwide election reported by the Election Commission, the Move Forward have won 151 MP seats, upsetting the Pheu Thai which had earlier anticipated a landslide victory but eventually secured 141 MP seats.

 

Out of a total of 500 MPs, consisting of 400 in constituency-based mode and 100 in party-listed mode, the 151 Move Forward MPs include 113 constituency-based MPs and 38 party-listed MPs whilst the 141 Pheu Thai MPs include 111 constituency-based MPs and 30 party-listed MPs.

 

Pita’s party has won all 33 Bangkok constituencies and swept all constituencies of several provinces in all regions of the country including the capital city’s neighbouring ones.

 

Full story: https://thainewsroom.com/2023/05/15/move-forward-scores-surprise-victory-pita-to-become-pm/

 

-- © Copyright  THAI NEWSROOM 2023-05-15

 

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[JeffersLos]

Prison is more likely than Prime Minister. 

[webfact]

Pheu Thai’s landslide in serious jeopardy

 

 

The Pheu Thai Party is still widely tipped to win more seats than any other party, but signs are that their ambition of surpassing the 300-seat mark is unlikely to be achieved now. Even a 200-seat win is looking like a pipe dream at the moment.

 

The biggest political party may remain so after all the dust settles down, but a roundtable analysis on TV echoed the general feeling that it could be a major loser in the Thai general election.

 

Move Forward has obviously beaten expectations, standing to win more than 100 seats as of 9pm on Sunday. Bhumjaithai is also realistically hoping to exceed its 2019 achievements.

 

Palang Pracharath is winning fewer seats but, despite talk about its sharp decline, it can still celebrate the more than 30 seats it could potentially win.

 

The Ruam Thai Sang Chart is a new party, and winning more than 30 seats can be considered a fair start.

 

This leaves Pheu Thai among those who may moan the loudest. This is despite the fact that early counts (as of 9pm) had Pheu Thai winning some 140 seats. During the roundtable analysis on Thai PBS, the party’s unclear connection with Thaksin Shinawatra was mentioned as a possible reason why many voters chose Move Forward instead.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/editorial-pheu-thais-landslide-in-serious-jeopardy/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2023-05-15

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

The most versatile and flexible rental investment and holiday home solution in Thailand - click for more information.

[StayinThailand2much]

"Pita To Become PM"

 

So the leader of a party that scored about 151 out of 500 parliamentary seats becomes automatically PM? Interesting!

[MrMojoRisin]

7 minutes ago, JeffersLos said:

Prison is more likely than Prime Minister. 

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

[MrMojoRisin]

Just now, StayinThailand2much said:

"Pita To Become PM"

 

So the leader of a party that scored about 151 out of 500 parliamentary seats becomes automatically PM? Interesting!

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

[still kicking]

Don't celebrate yet he will most properly get banned like Thanathorn last time. It's a shame everybody I know voted for him.

[ourmanflint]

Very good. Thaksin will not be happy his hobby horse has stumbled. Hope this guy gets a chance to run the country without being stabbed in the back by someone or other.

[MrMojoRisin]

28 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

Very good. Thaksin will not be happy his hobby horse has stumbled. Hope this guy gets a chance to run the country without being stabbed in the back by someone or other.

Not sure about that. This result is probably the best scenario for Thaksin. His party is crucial in forming a governing coalition so there is power there whilst he will be able to take a back seat as Move Forward push more controversial reforms through parliament. Thaksin would never take the lead on issues such as lese majeste and military reform but his support will be required for Pita to get these changes legislated. PT ruling in their own right would be fraught with danger, this outcome appears that Thaksin will be able to have his cake and eat it. He should be home this year. The end of the Thaksin era is here as  Move Forward are only going to get stronger and stronger as they implement their policies and the Thai demography continues to change in the favour. What of the conservative side from here on in now that they can no longer rely on coups to gain power? You would think it is a long and barren road ahead for them.

[ezzra]

1 hour ago, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

They will not, no other elected governments "went after" their predecessor governments, its live and let live system, (translation: we won't touch you and next government will not touch us) 

[hotchilli]

Change at last, now lets see how long he lasts before being ousted like last time.

[still kicking]

9 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Change at last, now lets see how long he lasts before being ousted like last time.

Yes I said that 

[MrMojoRisin]

14 minutes ago, ezzra said:

They will not, no other elected governments "went after" their predecessor governments, its live and let live system, (translation: we won't touch you and next government will not touch us) 

No party has ever campaigned on reforming lese majeste, yet here we are.

The new government will move heaven and earth to expose all that the junta has been up to over the last 9 years - there will be touching.

[candide]

2 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

In Thailand, an elected government has no power on the Judiciary and semi-Judiciary (agencies, such as the NACC). 

[MrMojoRisin]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

In Thailand, an elected government has no power on the Judiciary and semi-Judiciary (agencies, such as the NACC). 

The government can investigate and forward cases to the courts. Once information of possible crimes is in the public domain....

[spidermike007]

The most important part of this equation was 42 seats for Prawit and 37 for Cha Cha. It was a huge repudiation for the status quo. The people said no, I don't think so, you guys are dinosaurs, we don't want you, we don't like you you need to disappear off the face of the earth. 

 

Let us hope these greedy, toxic, moronic, backwards, incapable nitwits get the message, and back down. 

 

Now, they need to figure out a way to get rid of the corrupt, army appointed senators. ASAP. By whatever means necessary. The youth have prevailed. It is a glorious day in Thailand!

Edited May 14, 2023 by spidermike007

[Tom H]

2 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

plus 250 Senators. 183+250>375.

 

[MrMojoRisin]

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The most important part of this equation was 42 seats for Prawit and 37 for Cha Cha. It was a huge repudiation for the status quo. The people said no, I don't think so, you guys are dinosaurs, we don't want you, we don't like you you need to disappear off the face of the earth. 

 

Let us hope these greedy, toxic, moronic, backwards, incapable nitwits get the message, and back down. 

 

Now, they need to figure out a way to get rid of the corrupt, army appointed senators. ASAP. By whatever means necessary. The youth have prevailed. It is a glorious day in Thailand!

Strange numbers for Prayuth, only 814,000 constituency votes yet a relatively massive 4,752,000 party list votes. It will be interesting to see an analysis once the count is complete.

[MrMojoRisin]

2 minutes ago, Tom H said:

plus 250 Senators. 183+250>375.

 

Senators can vote for the PM but not for lower house legislation.

183 votes ain't worth a thing in a 500 seat chamber.

[Gknrd]

Wow, this is going to interesting to see unfold. Will Cha Cha bow out gracefully or not is the question.

[Bim Smith]

I am not holding my breath at any substantial change. The geriatrics won't go without a fight and find some underhanded way of either banning the party (which I thought was already banned) or the word coup starts to rear it head after a few months. 

[ukrules]

Don't count your chickens yet........????

[eisfeld]

28 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

Senators can vote for the PM but not for lower house legislation.

183 votes ain't worth a thing in a 500 seat chamber.

The senate can block any legislation introduced by the house of representatives.

 

So yes, the house can vote for some PM but if the senate doesn't like it they can just grind everything to a halt.

 

When it comes to voting for the PM it's not a 500 seat chamber, it's National Assembly = house + senate = 750 seats. In theory 183 house seats + 250 senate seats = 433 seats which gives the majority.

 

I'm not sure if such a house minority proposed PM nominee is possible though. But I'm pretty sure if something like that came to pass it would result in massive civil unrest.

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by eisfeld

[Tom H]

36 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

Senators can vote for the PM but not for lower house legislation.

183 votes ain't worth a thing in a 500 seat chamber.

Yes. But for the PM.

[sikishrory]

The thing about phuea thai is they were only doing well because they were the original first and only populous party.

Then these guys came along with the better, clearer policies and new ideas.

I really hope they pull it off.

Winning this is half the battle.

Next they have to run over a minefield avoiding everything the military and royalists throw at them. To get to his chair.

Then they have to put their money where their mouth is and do what they promised. I don't imagine they can do much worse than the previous junta though.

Future is bright.

[MrMojoRisin]

14 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

The senate can block any legislation introduced by the house of representatives.

 

So yes, the house can vote for some PM but if the senate doesn't like it they can just grind everything to a halt.

 

When it comes to voting for the PM it's not a 500 seat chamber, it's National Assembly = house + senate = 750 seats. In theory 183 house seats + 250 senate seats = 433 seats which gives the majority.

 

I'm not sure if such a house minority proposed PM nominee is possible though. But I'm pretty sure if something like that came to pass it would result in massive civil unrest.

 

All to what end.

Anything other than accepting their election loss leads to either another election in which they would get thumped even harder or a coup which would be met by unrelenting street mobs consisting of the nations youths and rural poor. It's lose-lose for the junta. Time to put the tail between the legs and wander off.

[Enoon]

59 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The most important part of this equation was 42 seats for Prawit and 37 for Cha Cha. It was a huge repudiation for the status quo. The people said no, I don't think so, you guys are dinosaurs, we don't want you, we don't like you you need to disappear off the face of the earth. 

 

Let us hope these greedy, toxic, moronic, backwards, incapable nitwits get the message, and back down. 

 

Now, they need to figure out a way to get rid of the corrupt, army appointed senators. ASAP. By whatever means necessary. The youth have prevailed. It is a glorious day in Thailand!

They are pathologically unable to "get the message".

 

This is only the beginning.

 

There is a long, hard, way to go:

 

"Oh! pleasant exercise of hope and joy!

For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood

Upon our side, we who were strong in love!

Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,

But to be young was very heaven!—Oh! times,

In which the meagre, stale, forbidding ways

Of custom, law, and statute, took at once

The attraction of a country in romance!

When Reason seemed the most to assert her rights"

 

The French Revolution as It Appeared to Enthusiasts at Its Commencement,

By William Wordsworth

 

 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Enoon

[Roadman]

Great News for Thailand that Move Forward has come in at the top and with a 10 seat margin over the corrupt Shinawatra mafia clan. Still a lot of garbage in the way of these guys wrestling power off the military but it is first step away from the roundabout of the incompetent military v corrupt Shinawatra circus on the last 25 years.  

Edited May 14, 2023 by Roadman

[eisfeld]

18 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

All to what end.

Anything other than accepting their election loss leads to either another election in which they would get thumped even harder or a coup which would be met by unrelenting street mobs consisting of the nations youths and rural poor. It's lose-lose for the junta. Time to put the tail between the legs and wander off.

I agree if they were to pull all the tricks in order to block MF+PT to form a proper government then it would probably get ugly. But it doesn't have to be black and white. The senate holds a lot of power. They could extract concessions from the house.

 

For example the topic of mandatory conscription. MF said they want to abolish it. For that, they have to pass a law through the house. But the senate which is controlled by the military has to approve it. So that wont happen. But then what?

 

It's an interesting situation because afaik the house can't push changes to the constituion which enshrines the power of the senate. And because the senate is not elected by the voters, the voters can never push for a change to the current system unless they find a way to get senators on their side.

Edited May 14, 2023 by eisfeld

[KCPhuket]

3 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

Don't forget about the non-elected Senate and Prayut's constitution rewrite. If he doesn't go quietly....things will get sticky.