Can Pita Limjaroenrat Become Prime Minister? Three possible scenarios

[webfact]

 

By Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

As the dust settles on the 2023 general election, minds have turned towards the task of building a coalition. 

 

Before the election, Dr. Napon Jatusripitak and I had outlined three possible scenarios: 1) the status quo, where the conservative coalition assembled by Prayut in 2019 continues to rule, 2) an opposition landslide, where anti-regime parties sweep parliament and form their own government, and 3) a political crossover, where strange bedfellows like Pheu Thai and Palang Pracharath join forces to form a government. 

 

It is now clear that an opposition victory has occurred, except in a way that few analysts (or even the most optimistic Move Forward supporters) would have predicted: the largest party in parliament will be Move Forward, followed closely by Pheu Thai. Yet the path towards turning that seats into a Move Forward-led government with Pita Limjaroenrat as prime minister is far from straightforward. In particular, given that he is still many votes away from winning any parliamentary vote, what could happen should a parliamentary deadlock ensue is worth considering. 

 

Scenario 1: A Move Forward-led Progressive Government

The first possible coalition outcome is the one that Move Forward is currently working on assembling. Pita has now announced a prospective coalition of six parties: Move Forward, Pheu Thai, Thai Sang Thai, Prachachat, Seri Ruam Thai, and Pen Tham. Most of these parties were part of the opposition in the previous parliament; all are oriented as anti-regime parties. Together, this coalition would command 310 seats in parliament, a big majority in the lower house that ordinarily would easily allow Pita to become prime minister.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/49688/can-pita-limjaroenrat-become-prime-minister-three-possible-scenarios/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2023-05-18

 

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[edwinchester]

"Together, this coalition would command 310 seats in parliament, a big majority in the lower house that ordinarily would easily allow Pita to become prime minister."

 

Proof if ever needed that the system is rigged against the opposition. Imagine if Prayut et al had 310 mp's. With 250 Senators they'd be in no problem.

[dinsdale]

A very good article. Will PT jump and risk losing more votes at the next election? Will MFP get 66 senators to come onboard. As I have been saying a minority govt is unworkable so this option seems unlikey but it is a way to cause civil uprest which IMO the army is looking for. Lots of questions raised all because of non democratically elected senators put in to protect the 'three pillars' from the people's wishes. Interesting times. 

[spidermike007]

As stated in a related post I am glad Pita is calling out these guys. He is absolutely correct. But, the people might need to take charge now. 

 

These senators need to be declared enemies of the state.

 

They are essentially committing treason, at this point. A list of their names and photos needs to be circulated. The people need to call them and their children, siblings, and parents out at work, at school, at restaurants, and in public. 

Shame them into submission.

Embarrass them to no end.

Make them conscious of the incredible amount of damage and erosion to democracy they are causing, and let Cha Cha know we are not buying his "I will be cooperative, and honor the results" nonsense.

 

Make their lives so uncomfortable they quit a year early. It just might work. 

[smedly]

there will be a lot of boiler room discussions going on, will they get 66 senators onboard - quite possible considering the senate is doomed no matter what happens, some 66 senators could be promised seats in a new senate if they support a MFP coalition while the rest are fired, what comes next is an ammended constitution as first order of buisiness to remove the PM election clauses entirely.

 

Then another coup - number 23 I think

[mikebell]

Scenario 4 Bad losers will declare the Election crooked and put tanks on the street. The Army senators will not easily give up their illegal, cushy status.

[bamnutsak]

MoveForward is going to have to pledge not to pursue ANY reforms of the Institution.

 

Unfortunately, most of their voters support such reforms, so this will be seen as a failure of democracy.

 

And if they cave on this they'll have to promise not to let Thaksin return.

 

Unfortunately, most of the PTP voters support his return.

 

 

Three scenarios

 

MF and PTP cave

Stalemate

Turmoil+coup

 

 

 

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by bamnutsak

[spidermike007]

8 minutes ago, mikebell said:

Scenario 4 Bad losers will declare the Election crooked and put tanks on the street. The Army senators will not easily give up their illegal, cushy status.

Nope. The army is on it's way out. It could take awhile, and it could get ugly, though it will never get to the hellish level of Burma, as the Thai parents would never, ever permit that kind of genocidal behavior from their sons. You take out one more Thai, and you are forever disowned by this family. That is all it would take to bring about mass defections from the army ranks. That would sure be fun to witness. Are the pompous generals going to put themselves into harms way? Never. They do not have it in them, they are cowards. 

 

[mikebell]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

They do not have it in them, they are cowards. 

I admire your optimism and support your last thought; but after a lifetime of entitlement the medal-bedecked generals will not give up easily.

[dinsdale]

13 minutes ago, smedly said:

there will be a lot of boiler room discussions going on, will they get 66 senators onboard - quite possible considering the senate is doomed no matter what happens, some 66 senators could be promised seats in a new senate if they support a MFP coalition while the rest are fired, what comes next is an ammended constitution as first order of buisiness to remove the PM election clauses entirely.

 

Then another coup - number 23 I think

Sorry but I have to disagree on the point of senators being promised seats. The senate needs to be elected by the people. This can be done in seperate elections if the senate has let's say a six year term whereas the House of Reps is a four year term or together in the case of a double dissolution where both houses are dissolved at the same time necessiting both a vote for the house and the senate. I guess, however, in the short term it is a possible solution until the new constitution is written and sent to referendum.

[h90]

57 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

A very good article. Will PT jump and risk losing more votes at the next election? Will MFP get 66 senators to come onboard. As I have been saying a minority govt is unworkable so this option seems unlikey but it is a way to cause civil uprest which IMO the army is looking for. Lots of questions raised all because of non democratically elected senators put in to protect the 'three pillars' from the people's wishes. Interesting times. 

PTP can make a successful coalition and if they work good in 4 years MFP will be forgotten...if they work bad MFP will be even stronger...it all depends. Thaksin did always well in elections.

[dinsdale]

3 minutes ago, h90 said:

PTP can make a successful coalition and if they work good in 4 years MFP will be forgotten...if they work bad MFP will be even stronger...it all depends. Thaksin did always well in elections.

They would have to dance with the devil. Not sure it will be forgotten. Democrat voters certainly didn't forget. Not sure Thaksin, who has said PT should support MFP (I know maybe not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth), can change the direction of the voting public demonstrated by a massive mandate for change. The % of the young vote will increase by the nxt election and the mood for change would have grown substantially. PT is in a tricky position and risks losing a lot of their support base.

[smedly]

46 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Sorry but I have to disagree on the point of senators being promised seats. The senate needs to be elected by the people. This can be done in seperate elections if the senate has let's say a six year term whereas the House of Reps is a four year term or together in the case of a double dissolution where both houses are dissolved at the same time necessiting both a vote for the house and the senate. I guess, however, in the short term it is a possible solution until the new constitution is written and sent to referendum.

agree the senate needs be elected but there needs to a government willing to do that first - one step at time

[h90]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

They would have to dance with the devil. Not sure it will be forgotten. Democrat voters certainly didn't forget. Not sure Thaksin, who has said PT should support MFP (I know maybe not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth), can change the direction of the voting public demonstrated by a massive mandate for change. The % of the young vote will increase by the nxt election and the mood for change would have grown substantially. PT is in a tricky position and risks losing a lot of their support base.

PTP + BJ should be enough, or (I didn't look it up, maybe another few) and wouldn't anger the red base. Would make PTP the strongest in the coalition. It would allow Thaksin to come home.

[Chicksaw]

From the Enquirer article the LM law is the sticking point. Pita is standing by his election promise to repeal it (good for him) while the others, who might join him, are terrified.

 

Interesting times. Time for cojones to be counted.

[bamnutsak]

16 minutes ago, h90 said:

+ BJ should be enough

BJT has said that they will NOT join the MF coalition due to their position on reforms of the Institution. But there could more "asks".?

[Eric Loh]

8 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

BJT has said that they will NOT join the MF coalition due to their position on reforms of the Institution. But there could more "asks".?

Democrat Party said the same thing about not supporting Pita. Pita can't relent and disappoint his supporters. He may come up with a statement to leave LM reform as not his immediate priority but will not placate the oppositions as they unlikely to trust him. I think that opens up a possibility of nominating Sreetha as the PM. His stance on LM is more moderate and maybe more palatable to the senators. Pita will get a senior cabinet post like defence or foreign minister as well as deputy PM. If Sreetha gets the nod, pressure on the BJT and DM to make their pro democracy stand in line with the voters sentiment. I think PTP is in a better position to bring few senators on board. 

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, mikebell said:

I admire your optimism and support your last thought; but after a lifetime of entitlement the medal-bedecked generals will not give up easily.

Maybe not. Or just maybe. Perhaps their time has come and gone. Perhaps they realize this. Perhaps this is a whole new world. Perhaps they have stolen enough billions of dollars to be content with their ill gotten wealth. Perhaps the era of the dinosaur is over, and the youth will prevail.

 

I know I sound overly optimistic. But, without hope and dreams, what is there? Only bleakness and hopelessness. 

[h90]

56 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

BJT has said that they will NOT join the MF coalition due to their position on reforms of the Institution. But there could more "asks".?

yes that is what I mean a coaliton without MF, with PTP and BJT

[spidermike007]

Hopefully enough of the army appointed senators will defect, realizing they, their children, their parents, their siblings, and their spouses could have a very, very miserable life ahead of them, if they defy the will of the people, at this point in time. They would indeed be inviting a pox on their own houses, by doing so. Let reason prevail. 

[ourmanflint]

"Scenario 2: A Pheu Thai-led Political Crossover"

 

This is the one to be wary of. No way will the 3 Thaksin cronies be happy playing 2nd fiddle to Pita and MF

[luckyblock token]

I smell the next coup already coming soon.

the army will not allow this US puppets to destroy Thailand.

 

[dinsdale]

4 hours ago, h90 said:

PTP + BJ should be enough, or (I didn't look it up, maybe another few) and wouldn't anger the red base. Would make PTP the strongest in the coalition. It would allow Thaksin to come home.

This coalition would still need the support of the military senate.

[h90]

19 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This coalition would still need the support of the military senate.

yes but they'll get it if the don't change 112. That would be the easy way out for everyone

[dinsdale]

5 minutes ago, h90 said:

yes but they'll get it if the don't change 112. That would be the easy way out for everyone

I'm reading elswhere that Pita has announced his coalition and it includes Phue Thai.

[h90]

5 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I'm reading elswhere that Pita has announced his coalition and it includes Phue Thai.

yes but I don't know if he get the senators. Without them he can announce what he wants. Next one to build a coalition is than Phue Thai. They say they don't want to change 112 and build a coalition and get the premier. I doubt that Thaksin want to play number 2 behind Pita. With that he (his daughter) get PM and the yellows will happily accept it, the senators will accept it. And more money to share for everyone.
I would be very surprise if that is not widely discussed. I think it would be good...Reforms, new people but with splitting the society.

[dinsdale]

3 minutes ago, h90 said:

yes but I don't know if he get the senators. Without them he can announce what he wants. Next one to build a coalition is than Phue Thai. They say they don't want to change 112 and build a coalition and get the premier. I doubt that Thaksin want to play number 2 behind Pita. With that he (his daughter) get PM and the yellows will happily accept it, the senators will accept it. And more money to share for everyone.
I would be very surprise if that is not widely discussed. I think it would be good...Reforms, new people but with splitting the society.

It's still dancing with the devil and still needs to be in bed with the gang of 250 going agaist the mandate of the people which is to expunge the military from politics.

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

As stated in a related post I am glad Pita is calling out these guys. He is absolutely correct. But, the people might need to take charge now. 

 

These senators need to be declared enemies of the state.

 

They are essentially committing treason, at this point. A list of their names and photos needs to be circulated. The people need to call them and their children, siblings, and parents out at work, at school, at restaurants, and in public. 

Shame them into submission.

Embarrass them to no end.

Make them conscious of the incredible amount of damage and erosion to democracy they are causing, and let Cha Cha know we are not buying his "I will be cooperative, and honor the results" nonsense.

 

Make their lives so uncomfortable they quit a year early. It just might work. 

There should be an immediate online petition stating the number of the people that want the senate to back the MFP leader.

A few million signatures handed in tho the government might help change a few minds.

[candide]

7 hours ago, smedly said:

there will be a lot of boiler room discussions going on, will they get 66 senators onboard - quite possible considering the senate is doomed no matter what happens, some 66 senators could be promised seats in a new senate if they support a MFP coalition while the rest are fired, what comes next is an ammended constitution as first order of buisiness to remove the PM election clauses entirely.

 

Then another coup - number 23 I think

You are assuming that the government can appoint Senators. That's not the case. There is a process described in the constitution for appointing the next Senators, and they won't be selected by the government (of course). The selection committees will likely be stacked by the establishment so there's not much hope about it.

 

As to changing or amending the constitution, it requires a majority vote of the parliament (375). Moreover, that majority must also include one-third of the Senate, and 20 percent of MPs from all political parties which do not hold positions as cabinet members, Speaker of House of Representatives, or Deputy Speaker of House of Representatives.

https://prachataienglish.com/node/9086

 

In other words, they're screwed.

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

There should be an immediate online petition stating the number of the people that want the senate to back the MFP leader.

A few million signatures handed in tho the government might help change a few minds.

There has to be major pushback against these clowns. 250 bought and paid for goons should not be able to hold a nation hostage. The people have to get creative, in order to force the hand of the corrupt, divisive, useless Thai army.