Quick Analysis: With Pita Gone, What Happens Next?

[webfact]

Thailand held its general election on May 14th. On July 13th — almost two months since the election — the first round of voting for prime minister unfolded inconclusively. Then, on July 19th, the scheduled second round did not happen at all, with Parliament voting that Pita Limjaroenrat could not be submitted for consideration twice.  

 

It has been a remarkably drawn out process, only to reach the conclusion that most of us could have guessed a long time ago: Pita would not be allowed to become prime minister, and someone else will take the reins. Parliament voted to deny Pita a second shot at being re-nominated. It was only a formality that finalized what has long been certain. 

 

As the legal scholar Dr. Bowornsak Uwanno has noted, this stands on dubious legal grounds at best. But the decision has been made; now, the real action will take place. 

 

by Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/50256/quick-analysis-with-pita-gone-what-happens-next/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2023-07-20

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

[bamnutsak]

Good analysis, although depressing.

 

from the article, 

 

Of the eligible candidates for prime minister, only four have any realistic chance of actually winning. Pheu Thai’s Paethongtharn Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin are the most likely candidates to be put forward; Bhumjaithai’s Anutin isn’t out of the running, given his status as the leader of the third biggest party, while Palang Pracharath leader Prawit Wongsuwan consistently remains in play with his sway over the Senate appointments under the NCPO. 

 

I can't see the Senate going with either PTP candidate unless they (PTP) agree to be subservient to the will of the aristocracy.

 

 

 

 

[steven100]

here we go around the mulberry bush '   tra la '   tra la '   here we go around the mulberry bush .....  lalala la!

[sqwakvfr]

I like the way Mr. Pita left.  He made a short speech, took off his I.D. Badge, placed it on the desk, walk down and gave a fist salute.  In essence he was saying "you won this round but it is not over".   As time go by others like him will emerge.  Also, "the world is watching and this was not a good like for the Land of Smiles".  

 

 

[Eric Loh]

I tend to think that political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak had this quite right when he told AFP that the prospect of a military presence in the new government would spark a backlash in a country that is no stranger to political unrest. I will add that the backlash will also manifest in the next election. That will probably be a big deterrent for Phue Thai to consider PPRP or UTN and may even harbour any idea to form a coalition without MFP.

 

I think they will try to bring in the 2 civilian parties in the form of CTP and BJT into the coalition which will be enough to secure the PM position and form the next government. 

 

CTP will be the easier target as they have the history of switching allegiance. THeir party leader Vorawut Silp-archa has said that they are willing to form a coalition with any party that wins the next election.

 

Anutin may have said that he will not be involved in a coalition that has MFP but he also said that he will not be join a minority government. In any case, he is not the leader of BJT, The party shadow leader Newin Chidchop hold the power and he had said that there are no permanent friends or foes in Thai politics while trying to mend ties with Thaksin. 

 

Another factor is that Thaksin actually has friends in the military that may influence the 1/3 senators that are from military and police. He has pivoted away from his tough stand against the military after the brutal encounters and consequences with the military. Yingluck stayed away from key military appointments and even had Prayut moved up to become the army chief during her tenure. 

 

I think there is a real good chance that next Thursday, we may see a new government under PTP.

 

 

 

 

[BangkokReady]

16 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

a country that is no stranger to political unrest.

It's also no stranger to huge amounts of political apathy though.

[champers]

15 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

I like the way Mr. Pita left.  He made a short speech, took off his I.D. Badge, placed it on the desk, walk down and gave a fist salute.  In essence he was saying "you won this round but it is not over".   As time go by others like him will emerge.  Also, "the world is watching and this was not a good like for the Land of Smiles".  

 

 

Pita is 42 and can afford to play the long game. Pheu Thai in charge for 4 years with a cobbled together and unsavoury coalition will not harm Pita's future prospects; same if Prawit or Anutin become PM.

MFP will likely have to form a new party and be in opposition but they have done it before and the payback could be a landslide win in 2027.

 

[webfact]

Three scenarios suggested for new government : senior Pheu Thai MP

 

File photo : Sutin Klangsang

 

Pheu Thai party list MP Sutin Klungsang on Thursday revealed three scenarios for forming the next government. Sutin on Wednesday renominated Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat as the prime minister, however the parliament voted down the renomination, ending Pita’s hope for the position.

 

1. The Move Forward party finds a solution, with the other seven members of the coalition and senators, about amending the lèse majesté law.

 

2. The eight parties stay together and work in opposition.

 

3. The Pheu Thai party parts ways with Move Forward and leads the government coalition.

 

Sutin said that it is not a dead end for the forming of the government yet, but he thought the process should not go as far as nominating an outsider to be the prime minister, adding that this would be unacceptable for him. An outsider as PM means parliament has failed.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/three-scenarios-suggested-for-new-government-senior-pheu-thai-mp/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2023-07-20

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

[Robin]

Isn't this what was wanted by the elite n the first place?  

An unstable coalition government with no mandate to do anything, letting Thailand drift for another 4 years and then hope to get the 'right' people in power again.

Pita must have known , or have been told, that any attempt to change the Sec.112 law as political suicide, so why did he  push to policy?

Time is on his side as he should b back for the next election, and the one after that.  He ahs shown that his policies ar popular with the majority of the public, and maybe even more popular next time.  By 2030 Thailand could look very different.

[GarryP]

4 minutes ago, Robin said:

Isn't this what was wanted by the elite n the first place?  

An unstable coalition government with no mandate to do anything, letting Thailand drift for another 4 years and then hope to get the 'right' people in power again.

Pita must have known , or have been told, that any attempt to change the Sec.112 law as political suicide, so why did he  push to policy?

Time is on his side as he should b back for the next election, and the one after that.  He ahs shown that his policies ar popular with the majority of the public, and maybe even more popular next time.  By 2030 Thailand could look very different.

112 was just the excuse they needed, but it is not the real reason for attacking Pita and the MFP. The elite and the military cannot accept the changes proposed in regard to the military and against the monopolies. 

[Snig27]

3 hours ago, sqwakvfr said:

I like the way Mr. Pita left.  He made a short speech, took off his I.D. Badge, placed it on the desk, walk down and gave a fist salute.  In essence he was saying "you won this round but it is not over".   As time go by others like him will emerge.  Also, "the world is watching and this was not a good like for the Land of Smiles".  

 

 

A commentator on Al Jaz said "Thailand remains a failed state". It's how much of the world sees the country - nice place for a holiday but a mess as a country.

[Guderian]

The whole thing's just a smoke and mirrors show so that everyone will end up so fed up of the whole charade they'll be begging Prayut to come back as PM, lol.

[Nickcage49]

So the vast majority supported Pita, but now the Senate and the courts are denying him the chance to be Prime Minister.

 

I come from a Democracy. I guess I don't recognize this place as one.

[JimboB4]

What happens next? Well that’s easy, a lot more weed. 

[shortstop2]

The Senate could just block the original coalition with a PT PM again.  Perhaps Bhumjaithai and Move Forward should both be in the coalition even if that is a bit awkward as then no Senate votes are needed.  Give Anutin some important ministries.   Then implement some structural reforms, add pro-democracy Senators.   

[GarryP]

4 minutes ago, shortstop2 said:

The Senate could just block the original coalition with a PT PM again.  Perhaps Bhumjaithai and Move Forward should both be in the coalition even if that is a bit awkward as then no Senate votes are needed.  Give Anutin some important ministries.   Then implement some structural reforms, add pro-democracy Senators.   

The only ministry that should be given to Anutin is the Ministry of Silly walks. 

[bannork]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

I tend to think that political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak had this quite right when he told AFP that the prospect of a military presence in the new government would spark a backlash in a country that is no stranger to political unrest. I will add that the backlash will also manifest in the next election. That will probably be a big deterrent for Phue Thai to consider PPRP or UTN and may even harbour any idea to form a coalition without MFP.

 

I think they will try to bring in the 2 civilian parties in the form of CTP and BJT into the coalition which will be enough to secure the PM position and form the next government. 

 

CTP will be the easier target as they have the history of switching allegiance. THeir party leader Vorawut Silp-archa has said that they are willing to form a coalition with any party that wins the next election.

 

Anutin may have said that he will not be involved in a coalition that has MFP but he also said that he will not be join a minority government. In any case, he is not the leader of BJT, The party shadow leader Newin Chidchop hold the power and he had said that there are no permanent friends or foes in Thai politics while trying to mend ties with Thaksin. 

 

Another factor is that Thaksin actually has friends in the military that may influence the 1/3 senators that are from military and police. He has pivoted away from his tough stand against the military after the brutal encounters and consequences with the military. Yingluck stayed away from key military appointments and even had Prayut moved up to become the army chief during her tenure. 

 

I think there is a real good chance that next Thursday, we may see a new government under PTP.

 

 

 

 

An interesting scenario but as  both CTP ( Top) and Bhumjaithai ( Anuthin) have said they will not join a coalition with MF, it's hard to see how they could remain as leaders if that happened, even though Top is Banharn's ( black sheep) son.

Are you saying Newin will overrule Anuthin?

 

 

 

[steven100]

3 hours ago, sqwakvfr said:

"the world is watching and this was not a good like for the Land of Smiles".  

I think the world couldn't care less what happens in Thailand .... they all have their own politics to worry about, I expect Thailand cares even less what outsiders think,   remember Thais hate foreigners trying to tell them a better way ... they just ignore. 

[bamnutsak]

This is why they need a week.

 

They've got one shot to find the perfect birthday present, and it will take that long for all the "horse-trading" to be completed.

 

Given the hard deadline of 28 July failure may not be an option?

 

Prawit may be the last man waddling? Oops did he fall down again?

[anchadian]

Pheu Thai to install Srettha as Prime Minister by forming a coalition pact with government parties

 

Pheu Thai shifts to install Srettha as PM - Thai Examiner Move Forward given the elbow by coalition partner Pheu Thai grappling with a political crisis driven by the Senate and Article 112.

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/07/20/pheu-thai-shifts-to-install-srettha-as-pm-coalition-bhumjaithai-palang-pracharat/

[MrMo]

Of the 15 countries that are most frequently regarded as topping the list of better observing democratic practices, 9 are monarchies.

These numbers are contentious as it depends as from where you gather the data.

Let me assure you though, that Thailand is nowhere near the making either of these groups.

[bannork]

24 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

This is why they need a week.

 

They've got one shot to find the perfect birthday present, and it will take that long for all the "horse-trading" to be completed.

 

Given the hard deadline of 28 July failure may not be an option?

 

Prawit may be the last man waddling? Oops did he fall down again?

Actually that one shot scenario will be challenged as unconstitutional. Wan Nor as House Speaker, could have overridden the joint decision by the MPs opposed to Pita, along with the Senators, to vote down a second chance for Pita. 

[metisdead]

A post using ALL CAPS has been removed, please turn off your Caps Lock when posting. 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand held its general election on May 14th. On July 13th — almost two months since the election — the first round of voting for prime minister unfolded inconclusively. Then, on July 19th, the scheduled second round did not happen at all, with Parliament voting that Pita Limjaroenrat could not be submitted for consideration twice.  

The voting public ignored by the elite.

The working public should stuff the elite where it hurts, in the pocket.

[Maxwell Book]

So the military packed the senate and now they can't reach a deal. Interesting. 

[Almer]

7 minutes ago, terryofcrete said:

The world is watching Myanmar but no one is helping .... 

No oil

[steven100]

10 minutes ago, terryofcrete said:

The world is watching Myanmar but no one is helping .... 

I think you messed the below quote up .... I didn't say that ....     if you check my post again you'll see i didn't say that.

[prakhonchai nick]

53 minutes ago, shortstop2 said:

The Senate could just block the original coalition with a PT PM again.  Perhaps Bhumjaithai and Move Forward should both be in the coalition even if that is a bit awkward as then no Senate votes are needed.  Give Anutin some important ministries.   Then implement some structural reforms, add pro-democracy Senators.   

Anutin has specifically said he will not join a Move Forward coalition that wants to amend the lese majeste laws................But but..........................

[geisha]

If the Thais who voted Move Forward really want to make their feelings known, do what other countries do, sit down peaceful protest and general strike . I’m not a radical or rebel, but I think that’s the only way to show the elite what they think.  Stop the whole country, transport, airports, roads etc .  Very important,  let the world know, 
They’ve done it before. But can the Thais afford to ? 

[bamnutsak]

20 minutes ago, bannork said:

Actually that one shot scenario

Two different one shot scenarios. Mine referred to the next vote being 27 July, and the holiday on 28 July. Timing constraint.

 

The more than one vote/one resolution is different. Constitutional constraint.