Experts weigh chances of Thaksin’s return next week

[webfact]

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra speaks to Reuters during an interview in Singapore February 23, 2016. (Photo by Edgar Su / Reuters)

Fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has endured a painful dilemma for the past 15 years – whether or not to return to Thailand and face jail terms imposed during his absence.

 

While the statute of limitations has expired on one of his sentences, three other final verdicts against him carry accumulated penalties of 10 years in prison.

 

Thaksin, 74, began his tenure as prime minister in February 2001 and served until September 2006, when he was ousted in a military coup. He currently lives in self-imposed exile after fleeing Thailand in August 2008, avoiding criminal cases stemming from his time in power.

 

After years of repeatedly declaring his imminent return, it appears Thaksin is actually set to end his 15-year absence from Thailand this month. His daughter Paetongtarn, one of Pheu Thai Party’s three prime ministerial candidates, announced on his birthday on July 26 that Thaksin would fly back to Bangkok’s Don Mueang Airport on August 10.

 

However, political whistleblower Chuwit Kamolvisit on Friday claimed on Facebook that Thaksin had cancelled his plan to return. Chuwit’s claim was swiftly dismissed as “nonsense” by Paetongtarn, who insisted the August 10 return date was still in place.

 

Thaksin needs ‘three gems’

 

Political analysts, though, point to lingering uncertainties that could yet see Thaksin reconsider his homecoming plan.

 

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, said the ex-PM needs to acquire three “gems” to assure him that his return would be a smart decision – legislative power, government power, and support from the masses.

 

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/experts-weigh-chances-of-thaksins-return-next-week/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2023-08-01

 

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[OneMoreFarang]

Here is the important part from the article:

 

19 times in 15 years

Since fleeing the country in August 2008, Thaksin has announced his return at least 19 times. 

[brewsterbudgen]

If one is to believe AMM on X/Twitter, the 'deal' is off. 

[ozz1]

Another expert there is plenty of them in Thailand

[Hunz Kittisak]

He doesn’t need 3 gems

he just need a pardon 

it’s on going behind the scenes 

I’ll love to see him back 

[John Drake]

58 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

If one is to believe AMM on X/Twitter, the 'deal' is off. 

Or Srettha is about to stab Thaksin in the back.

[bbbbooboo]

I’m not an expert , but an educated guess would be 0 % 

[malibukid]

will he bring his harem?

[malibukid]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Here is the important part from the article:

 

19 times in 15 years

Since fleeing the country in August 2008, Thaksin has announced his return at least 19 times. 

i think we will see a Beatles reunion before that.

[mfd101]

Let's face it, the drama of an actual return, the kneeling on the tarmac to kiss the sacred earth, the Immigration Police arrest, the sad wave from the back of the Black Maria, the tearful hordes outside the prison, the handwringing political hypocrites on all sides ...

 

No end of entertainment! What's not to love? I could stay up all night watching the replays on my iMac.

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He doesn’t need 3 gems

he just need a pardon 

it’s on going behind the scenes 

I’ll love to see him back 

PTP and his ardent aging fans would love to see him back... personally I don't give a fig.

[Hunz Kittisak]

19 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

PTP and his ardent aging fans would love to see him back... personally I don't give a fig.

He will make Thailand great again! 

[Homburg]

Anyone sensible in his position would wait until a democratically elected civilian government is installed and a pardon has been granted. What Mr S will do however is anyone's guess!

[billd766]

I don't give a fig for any so called "political expert" in Thailand or worldwide for that matter.

 

Sure by the law of averages, they will be right sometimes and any normal person who makes a guess would be right also.

[soalbundy]

20 minutes ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He will make Thailand great again! 

He's not that dumb.

[scorecard]

2 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He doesn’t need 3 gems

he just need a pardon 

it’s on going behind the scenes 

I’ll love to see him back 

Yes, in a box.

[soalbundy]

He'll only come if PTP is in power and a watertight deal is in place otherwise the establishment would have to help him escape again, perhaps an important football match in China he has to see.

[scorecard]

28 minutes ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He will make Thailand great again! 

What's your guess how many Baht he would steal if he gets back in 2 weeks time?

[Skeptic7]

Weightless. Zero g chance. 

[jacko45k]

I am often wrong but the chance of Thaksin coming back to Thailand lies between slim chance and no chance... and slim left the building! 

[Ironmike]

He broke the law and stole millions of people's money let him rot in prison, he chose to take his billions and run so either prison or stay away 

[mrfill]

5 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Here is the important part from the article:

 

19 times in 15 years

Since fleeing the country in August 2008, Thaksin has announced his return at least 19 times. 

Yes, its a really 'painful dilemma'   ????????????

[kennw]

2 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He will make Thailand great again! 

The great corrupter, put him in jail where he should have been many years ago.

[sambum]

5 hours ago, ozz1 said:

Another expert there is plenty of them in Thailand

Nowt better to do!

 

[billd766]

2 hours ago, scorecard said:

What's your guess how many Baht he would steal if he gets back in 2 weeks time?

Very little compared to the current crop of dinosaurs.

 

After all they stole the whole country, lock, stock and barrel, and gave themselves an amnesty to boot.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He will make Thailand great again! 

That depends on the judiciary.

[zzaa09]

6 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He doesn’t need 3 gems

he just need a pardon 

it’s on going behind the scenes 

I’ll love to see him back 

The fourth and most important gem in this scenario is discreetly not touched upon. 

[bizboi]

7 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He doesn’t need 3 gems

he just need a pardon 

it’s on going behind the scenes 

I’ll love to see him back 

So you prefer him to the legitimate prime minister that won the election ? Suddenly the red shirt movement doesn’t seem to be all about Democracy!

 

7 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

He doesn’t need 3 gems

he just need a pardon 

it’s on going behind the scenes 

I’ll love to see him back 

 

[zzaa09]

8 hours ago, ozz1 said:

Another expert there is plenty of them in Thailand

....and even more among the membership here. ????

We're so blessed. 

[anchadian]

Thai Enquirer

 

Prapat Pothasuthon, Chart Thai Pattana's secretary-general, said he met with former PM Thaksin Shinawatra in Hong Kong last week, but it was only to congratulate him on his 74th birthday, not for any political deal.

 

He said Thaksin and he are old friends, and he has taken such a trip to congratulate Thaksin on previous birthdays before. He also mentioned that he did not see any other prominent member of any party when he met with Thaksin. On his return to #Thailand,

 

Thaksin said he will arrive via a private jet at Don Mueang Airport on August 10, and he is expected to be transferred to the Supreme Court to acknowledge his charges, showing his willingness to be imprisoned, according to Prapat.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1686337931613806592