Stampede out of THB?

[khunjake]

Seems like this latest tax news alongside doubts with the new cabinet is pushing the Baht past 36.15 at the moment.
 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see 38 by end of year. Surely the new govt wouldn’t mind a weak baht as it would boost exports/tourism and to come in line with neighboring countries which have substantially weaker rates against USD (MYR, IDR). 

[connda]

38 minutes ago, khunjake said:

Seems like this latest tax news alongside doubts with the new cabinet is pushing the Baht past 36.15 at the moment.
 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see 38 by end of year. Surely the new govt wouldn’t mind a weak baht as it would boost exports/tourism and to come in line with neighboring countries which have substantially weaker rates against USD (MYR, IDR). 

What online source are you using to obtain today's USD/THB exchange rate.

[connda]

I don't see a "stampede."  Today's rates at BBK Bank.

[KhunBENQ]

Was surprised to see this in the morning:

 

[KhunBENQ]

32 minutes ago, connda said:

What online source are you using to obtain today's USD/THB exchange rate.

Not being asked but I use:

xe.com

 

What you see are currency market rates not what you get at the exchange boot or with a (swift) transfer.

 

But all rates are derived from that.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by KhunBENQ

[KhunBENQ]

And it goes on. EUR/THB at 38.72 with a steep incline.

[BenStark]

29 minutes ago, connda said:

I don't see a "stampede."  Today's rates at BBK Bank.

Time to change bank

 

[KhunBENQ]

2 minutes ago, BenStark said:

Time to change bank

Too steep for sleepy banks ???? but third update already at 9:50. Unusual.

[khunjake]

Its not hard to figure out where the downfall comes from:

 

- corresponding CNY weakness

- strong USD

- newly proposed deficit spending by cabinet

- funds leaving thai stocks due to oversight issues ie stark

- tougher immigration policy, expats repatriating funds held. 
- tax reform

- low interest rates relative to USD/EUR/GBP

 

the list goes on & on, see ya’ll at 38, maybe even 40

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 minutes ago, khunjake said:

Its not hard to figure out where the downfall comes from:

 

- corresponding CNY weakness

- strong USD

- newly proposed deficit spending by cabinet

- funds leaving thai stocks due to oversight issues ie stark

- tougher immigration policy, expats repatriating funds held. 
- tax reform

- low interest rates relative to USD/EUR/GBP

 

the list goes on & on, see ya’ll at 38, maybe even 40

Good points, but why today?

Balance of trade data is due for release September 26th, maybe someone leaked the numbers.

10 out of the past 12 months have been a deficit.

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

Maybe it is just a move prior to the FED rate decision just after midnight tonight. 

[KhunBENQ]

Please accept: it's not just a USD move!.

It's definitely a Baht weakness.

EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD all up.

The recent EUR interest rise of 0.25 did nothing!

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by KhunBENQ

[KhunBENQ]

One day changes (11:28 AM):

USD +1.43%

EUR +1.38%

CHF +1.39%

GBP +1.50%

CAD +1.62%

AUD +1.67%

NZD +1.76%

Edited September 20, 2023 by KhunBENQ

[khunjake]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Good points, but why today?

Balance of trade data is due for release September 26th, maybe someone leaked the numbers.

10 out of the past 12 months have been a deficit.

 

I believe the tax reform news that came out is the main trigger here while the catalyst for a major move lower has been building up for several months now. 

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, KhunBENQ said:

Not being asked but I use:

xe.com

 

What you see are currency market rates not what you get at the exchange boot or with a (swift) transfer.

 

But all rates are derived from that.

Currency market rates = exchange rate with Wise, XE, Revolut, etc.

[KhunBENQ]

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Currency market rates = exchange rate with Wise, XE, Revolut, etc.

Yes and WISE follows on the minute.

38.718 for the EUR right now.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Hitting the news reel. The BOT might spring into action.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/emerging-markets-thai-baht-falls-most-among-asian-currencies

[Adumbration]

OP you beat me to it.  I was going to start a THB is collapsing thread.  

 

The taxing of incoming remitances is not the real issue.  

 

They intend to tap into the vast sea of money transferred back to Thailand from little ghosts working in Korea, Taiwan, Israel, et al.  Little ghost are working illegally offshore (because of zero opportunities in Thailand) so they are out of their host countries tax systems.

 

They are broke and the money for the trough (and the 10K digital wallet giveaway) has to come from somewhere.

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Adumbration

[Adumbration]

23 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Hitting the news reel. The BOT might spring into action.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/emerging-markets-thai-baht-falls-most-among-asian-currencies

With what?

[Ben Zioner]

3 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

Was surprised to see this in the morning:

 

So? This shows a one week, insignificant, dip in the value of the Euro against THB.

[khunjake]

Yes, the BOT usually intervenes to contain volatility on daily movements by selling USD from reserves. It does not contain the weekly/monthly downtrend though. Any THB strength will get sold down. 

[Pouatchee]

3 hours ago, connda said:

What online source are you using to obtain today's USD/THB exchange rate.

his crystal ball... even if it were advertised at that exchange rate that is never the rate banks give us after skimming off the top

[scubascuba3]

Maybe start paying for things in dollars soon

[Chivas]

Its certainly weakening out against the benchmark USD but still well under what it was one year ago

 

 

 

 

[Eloquent pilgrim]

Only 44.71 Baht to the pound £ Sterling as I write; a month ago I got 45.10 so not any stampede that I can see.

[BenStark]

1 minute ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

Only 44.71 Baht to the pound £ Sterling as I write; a month ago I got 45.10 so not any stampede that I can see.

10 years ago it was about 70, so what are all those people talking about.

 

Next

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, BenStark said:

10 years ago it was about 70, so what are all those people talking about.

 

Next

Tens years ago the Pound Baht exchange rate was 45 Baht to the Pound , same as it is today , last time it went to 70 was 15 years ago 

[Eloquent pilgrim]

20 minutes ago, BenStark said:

10 years ago it was about 70, so what are all those people talking about.

 

Next

What hat did you pull that number out of ? 10 years ago it was about 52, not 70 

[scubascuba3]

38 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

Only 44.71 Baht to the pound £ Sterling as I write; a month ago I got 45.10 so not any stampede that I can see.

Baht strengthened after it formed a government hence other currencies weakening 

[billd766]

5 hours ago, connda said:

What online source are you using to obtain today's USD/THB exchange rate.

KBank at 14:47 today. here are 2 for you.

 

     TRAVELLERS' CHEQUES    EXPORT SIGHT BILL    TELEX TRANSFER    BANK NOTES    TT&DRAFT T/CHEQUES    BANK NOTES     
 USD 1
USD : 1
35.89    35.89    35.99    34.98919    36.29    36.42656    
 USD 5-20
USD : 5-20
35.89    35.89    35.99    35.19661    36.29    36.42656    
 USD 50-100
USD : 50-100
35.89    35.89    35.99    35.71516    36.29    36.46113    

 

Bangkok Bank at 14:49 today

 

Currency    Description    Bank Notes
Buying Rates    Bank Notes
Selling Rates    Sight Bill
Buying Rates    TT
Buying Rates    Bill - DD - TT
Selling Rates
USD1    USD: 1-2    34.84    36.39            
USD5    USD: 5-20    35.19    36.39            
USD50    USD: 50-100    35.66    36.39    35.89    35.99    36.29