Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, ThaiFelix said:

One thing for sure is Israel will end up stealing more land from the Palestinians and the rest of the world will look the other way.

 

I feel Hamas has bitten off far more than it can handle but then what alternative does a hunted beast have when cornered?

What land?

Israel doesn't want to occupy Gaza.

Been there. Done that. They left.

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's not moot at all. They will never eradicate Hamas, as for every Gazan killed more supporters of Hamas are created. Even if they killed every Gazan, more will be created outside israel.

 

Israel has sown the wind and the whirlwind is coming. Israel is risking eternal war.

 

The world is watching.

So far the it's Gazan and Israeli civilians reaping what Hamas sowed.

As for the 'eternal war' nonsense, one might thing that there was peace before....

 

Completely eradicating the Hamas? Probably not a realistic goal. Rendering it powerless, irrelevant,  maybe yes.

For reference, how do AQ and IS fare now, compared to their heyday?

 

One lesson from this, IMO, is that letting a terrorist organization set up a solid base of operations (and worse, a state or a region under control) is a risky proposition.

[Jeff the Chef]

14 minutes ago, Morch said:

Luckily, my happiness does not depend on what some random, anonymous person posts on the internet,

 

As to what you posted: Just instant waffle. Self defense, for example, is acceptable.

You stay sad then, very sad, while I waffle on about the Human Race killing one another senselessly, with no end in sight.

[Morch]

7 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

You stay sad then, very sad, while I waffle on about the Human Race killing one another senselessly, with no end in sight.

Reading comprehension issues, again?

[retarius]

2 hours ago, Tug said:

Get it done exterminate Hamas if the Palestinians want relief they need to rat out the barbarians that brought this debacle down on their heads 

Why is it OK to say 'exterminate' Hamas Palestinians but not ok to say 'exterminate Israelis'.

[proton]

3 minutes ago, retarius said:

Why is it OK to say 'exterminate' Hamas Palestinians but not ok to say 'exterminate Israelis'.

Maybe because Hamas stated aim is to wipe out Israel and kill all Jews, where as Israel has only always been defending itself from Islamist attacks for 75 years?

[McTavish]

6 minutes ago, proton said:

Maybe because Hamas stated aim is to wipe out Israel and kill all Jews, where as Israel has only always been defending itself from Islamist attacks for 75 years?

Spot on, Proton.  

[Morch]

12 minutes ago, retarius said:

Why is it OK to say 'exterminate' Hamas Palestinians but not ok to say 'exterminate Israelis'.

Hamas is a Palestinian terrorist organization. It is not 'all Palestinians'. It is not even 'all the people of Gaza'.

Whereas 'Israelis' implies to all people in Israel (including Arab citizens, presumably).

[Jingthing]

18 minutes ago, retarius said:

Why is it OK to say 'exterminate' Hamas Palestinians but not ok to say 'exterminate Israelis'.

Hamas is only the government and army of Gaza. Their openly stated ideology is to kill all Jews. You really can't see the difference? Israel has no choice now.

[Walker88]

I do not see there is any solution to this ongoing mess. Not now, not ever.

 

From the time of the Lehi (Stern Gang) and Irgun, and their massacres such as Deir Yassin and the King David Hotel, to this most recent heinous barbarism by Hamas, there are no winners and lots of innocent deaths on both sides.

 

Sadly, Hamas just created more militants on the Israeli side, and the IDF in its reprisals, which always kill innocents, will create a new generation of militants on the Palestinian side. All will exact their pound of flesh.

 

Even two days ago some Israeli settlers murdered 4 Palestinians simply because they were Palestinians. There's never going to be turning the other cheek, only an eye for an eye.

 

Years ago I worked the "Middle East Issue" in a foreign policy arm of the USG. The elders at that time were so cynical, they advised us youngsters, "Work this issue and you'll never be out of a job". Having dealt with both sides, I quickly realized how true that advice was, as the two sides---or their leaders, who ALL had terrorist backgrounds whether named Begin or Arafat---were incapable of ever finding a workable solution.

 

The innocents, on both sides, will always pay the harshest price.

[stoner]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

You conflate a terrorist attack with a military one.

ya it's cool when a military also kills hundreds and hundreds of women and children.

 

 

[proton]

16 minutes ago, stoner said:

ya it's cool when a military also kills hundreds and hundreds of women and children.

 

 

Sounds like wish full thinking so you could use anything like that to demonise Israel. Israel actually gives warnings to civilians to evacuate before attacks, Hamas terrorists use surprise attacks against women and children you seem to care so much about- then butchers them.

[Jingthing]

13 minutes ago, stoner said:

ya it's cool when a military also kills hundreds and hundreds of women and children.

 

 

It's not cool. War is hell, 

Israel understands that tragically many innocents will die, but the innocents aren't their target.

Contrast to what Hamas is all about -- killing all Jews.

Time to get real.

Sometimes war is necessary. 

It's not like Hamas is saying, give us this, give us that, and we can make a deal.

What they want is the end of the Israel and to drive the Jews into the sea. They tell us that. It's no mystery. Especially after the massacres. Impossible for any state to negotiate with such a force.

[candide]

7 hours ago, stevenl said:

Can you please explain, I don't see many similarities.

The 'plan' of the RAF was to provoke a repression, which would then provoke a counter-reaction by the people against the State. That was completely stupid in the context in which they were operating.

 

In the case of Hamas, it looks like they have a similar plan. They knew Israel would attack and invade Gaza territory. Provoke a strong reaction from Israel with a lot of collateral damage, even occupy Gaza again, which would increase support from Arab and Muslim populations. Of course, they don't care about Gaza's inhabitant's  lives. For most of them they don't even care about their own lives. They are not looking for peace because conflict is their 'raison d'être', Their goal is to exacerbate conflicts and antagonize public opinions.

 

[deejai33]

L

25 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I do not see there is any solution to this ongoing mess. Not now, not ever.

 

 

Seems a bit pessemistic, but the mess in the region now known as Israel and Palestine, has gone on for all of my long life.   Roots in zionism, british mandate, major powers role etc.

 

To me, yes simplistic, the solution will involve both the israelis and palestinians having full control of viable portions of the territory.  Could say equal portions, not sure.

 

Referred to I think as 2-state solution.   Arab nations want it.

 

At this moment, with casualties about equal on both sides, Israel should put forward a 2 state solution and all sides actively work towards achieving it.    No need for more deaths.

 

The US should not be sending more ammunition and aircraft carriers.  Should be convening 2 state solution talks.

 

 

 

[retarius]

46 minutes ago, proton said:

Maybe because Hamas stated aim is to wipe out Israel and kill all Jews, where as Israel has only always been defending itself from Islamist attacks for 75 years?

Nonsense. Israel's aim is and always has been land theft and Genocide.

[proton]

1 minute ago, deejai33 said:

L

Seems a bit pessemistic, but the mess in the region now known as Israel and Palestine, has gone on for all of my long life.   Roots in zionism, british mandate, major powers role etc.

 

To me, yes simplistic, the solution will involve both the israelis and palestinians having full control of viable portions of the territory.  Could say equal portions, not sure.

 

Referred to I think as 2-state solution.   Arab nations want it.

 

At this moment, with casualties about equal on both sides, Israel should put forward a 2 state solution and all sides actively work towards achieving it.   

 

The US should not be sending more ammunition and aircraft carriers.  Should be convening 2 state solution talks.

 

 

 

Arabs have always rejected a 2 state solution since 1947, where did you get the idea they want one? Hamas certainly dont.

[Jeff the Chef]

1 minute ago, retarius said:

Nonsense. Israel's aim is and always has been land theft and Genocide.

Just you wait till March reads that ????

[proton]

3 minutes ago, retarius said:

Nonsense. Israel's aim is and always has been land theft and Genocide.

How brainwashed can a person be, just the opposite of the truth

[deejai33]

3 minutes ago, proton said:

Arabs have always rejected a 2 state solution since 1947, where did you get the idea they want one? Hamas certainly dont.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/11/arab-ministers-urge-israel-to-resume-talks-on-two-state-solution

[OneMoreFarang]

"Israel's options don't look good"

And Palestinian options don't look good since decades... 

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Tug said:

Get it done exterminate Hamas if the Palestinians want relief they need to rat out the barbarians that brought this debacle down on their heads 

That would be Netanyahu and his warmongering cabinet that need exterminating.

 

There was an interesting article in the Bangkok Post this morning by a guy called Pete Singer.

 

I can mention the Post and the authors name, but I am not allowed to post any content.

 

If you want to read it you will have to search for the article yourself.

[Morch]

38 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I do not see there is any solution to this ongoing mess. Not now, not ever.

 

From the time of the Lehi (Stern Gang) and Irgun, and their massacres such as Deir Yassin and the King David Hotel, to this most recent heinous barbarism by Hamas, there are no winners and lots of innocent deaths on both sides.

 

Sadly, Hamas just created more militants on the Israeli side, and the IDF in its reprisals, which always kill innocents, will create a new generation of militants on the Palestinian side. All will exact their pound of flesh.

 

Even two days ago some Israeli settlers murdered 4 Palestinians simply because they were Palestinians. There's never going to be turning the other cheek, only an eye for an eye.

 

Years ago I worked the "Middle East Issue" in a foreign policy arm of the USG. The elders at that time were so cynical, they advised us youngsters, "Work this issue and you'll never be out of a job". Having dealt with both sides, I quickly realized how true that advice was, as the two sides---or their leaders, who ALL had terrorist backgrounds whether named Begin or Arafat---were incapable of ever finding a workable solution.

 

The innocents, on both sides, will always pay the harshest price.

Several comments (not that I disagree with the core of your post):

 

The Lehi and the Irgun were not the mainstream organizations at the time. Hamas's status among Palestinians, and as de-facto rulers of the Gaza Strip, is very different.

 

With regard to mutual violence fostering further violence down the road, sure. Also good stuff for extremist and populist leaders to play with.

 

The advice given to you by said elders resonates well - I recall there was a time it was dubbed 'The Peace Process Industry' or something.

 

I do share the pessimism, if not to the same extent or level of detachment. More like, not impossible, but improbable, very hard to accomplish. But that's if talking about 'full pledged' peace. While no ideal, even partial, temporary solutions and remedies are better than nothing, especially as far as civilians are concerned.

[Morch]

46 minutes ago, stoner said:

ya it's cool when a military also kills hundreds and hundreds of women and children.

 

 

If you say so.

[billd766]

2 hours ago, novacova said:

The IDF always gives warnings to Gazans of when and where they hit via text. Hamas restrains innocent civilians from escaping to incite a PR emotional response,. When did Hamas ever give a warning before an attack? Though yet here we have a continuous debased morally blurred individuals that has showed empirically by definition support for Hamas, Hamas by definition is translated to the English word violence which is supported by most Gazas who voted for this regime, therefore conflating the moral equivalent is no less in support of Hamas. 

When did the Palestinians ever use their military, (they don't have one), or tanks, helicopter gunships and ground attack aircraft against Israel?

[Morch]

23 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

L

Seems a bit pessemistic, but the mess in the region now known as Israel and Palestine, has gone on for all of my long life.   Roots in zionism, british mandate, major powers role etc.

 

To me, yes simplistic, the solution will involve both the israelis and palestinians having full control of viable portions of the territory.  Could say equal portions, not sure.

 

Referred to I think as 2-state solution.   Arab nations want it.

 

At this moment, with casualties about equal on both sides, Israel should put forward a 2 state solution and all sides actively work towards achieving it.    No need for more deaths.

 

The US should not be sending more ammunition and aircraft carriers.  Should be convening 2 state solution talks.

 

 

 

Israel just had it's 9/11 moment. If you think that's a realistic time to engage in peace talks, we'd have to disagree.

 

Anyway, the Palestinians would have to be able and willing to play along. One of their governments is plainly not into it, the other unclear, ineffectual and lacks support. Making it all about Israel is bogus.

[billd766]

2 hours ago, traveller101 said:

Since Hamas live amongst the 2.4 Million Palestimians in the Gaza strip, your request to 'exterminate Hamas' can only be realised in exterminating the whole population living in Gaza.

You're ok with that scenario?

 

It can also be called genocide.

[MikeandDow]

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

When did the Palestinians ever use their military, (they don't have one), or tanks, helicopter gunships and ground attack aircraft against Israel?

Are your eyes shut         the Palestinians use Hamas that is there military the Palestinians voted in Hamas to goverment

[billd766]

2 hours ago, bizboi said:

Israel was there four thousand years before any Palestinian!!!

Do you have a link for that erroneous claim?

[Morch]

25 minutes ago, retarius said:

Nonsense. Israel's aim is and always has been land theft and Genocide.

Sure.

A genocide lasting 75 years, with Palestinian population the largest ever.

As for 'land theft' - no one stopped the Palestinians from accepting the original UN Partition Plan. No one stopped them from demanding independence (and their land) from Egypt and Jordan when they were the occupiers. No one even prevented them delaying negotiations with Israel as long as they have.