Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Educated guess from you is not evidence. The rest of your post is nonsense

 

 

 

IDF is not a reliable source.

[Morch]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The israelis just deliberately bombed a hospital full of people ( or do you think the israelis don't know what they are bombing ), so back at you.

Are you going to claim that the intentional targeting of civilians in a hospital ( a war crime ) is justified?

The UN representative has stated that they inform the israelis of any facility where displaced Palestinians are sheltering. 

Other than yourself deciding it was deliberate, anything to support this with? Any concrete proof if was Israel that bombed the hospital?

 

It's fine regurgitating Hamas announcements communicated by AlJazeera, but that's not proof. 

[Morch]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The israeli bombing of a hospital with 500 dead and many wounded has just united many Arab nations as seen by the joint news conference at the UN.

More loaded comments.

 

And 'united' how? In condemnation? That's expected regardless of facts. Anything more tangible? Doubtful.

[placnx]

3 hours ago, novacova said:

They are criminal terrorist, not a militia of a state military force, so no Hague. Immediate elimination or imprisonment by their captors.

If evidence of a State (Iran) sponsor can be presented then The Hague could issue warrants.

The question is whether Palestinian accession to the Rome Statute covers Gaza. That's separate from crimes covered by the Geneva conventions.

[Morch]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Seems the israelis are using the evacuation to kill more Palestinians.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/14/gaza-civilians-afraid-to-leave-home-after-bombing-of-safe-routes

Gaza civilians afraid to leave home after bombing of ‘safe routes’

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67133803

Dozens killed as Israeli strikes hit southern Gaza refuge areas

 

If Israel was bent on killing Palestinian civilians, the death toll would be, at the very least in the 5 figure range and upwards.

[placnx]

3 hours ago, MikeandDow said:

“international law” is simply obligations which states have voluntarily acceded to. It has to be that way, because there is no effective coercion mechanism for breach. The moment you change international law to being a system of: “well, you didn’t want this, but we are imposing it on you anyhow” then people will simply have no incentive to follow those international laws because they never agreed to them. No Teeth

Under the Rome Statute, signatory states have engaged to arrest people accused by the ICC prosecutor. Sometimes they ignore their obligations, though. The tribunal has put some of the indicted on trial. https://www.icc-cpi.int/cases 

[MikeandDow]

11 minutes ago, placnx said:

Under the Rome Statute, signatory states have engaged to arrest people accused by the ICC prosecutor. Sometimes they ignore their obligations, though. The tribunal has put some of the indicted on trial. https://www.icc-cpi.int/cases 

And there is the rub "ignore their obligations"  No teeth  once they arrest the likes of Putin  I will believe.

[placnx]

59 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Jewish people have learned the hard way that when people announce they want to kill them to believe it.

But clearly you have no appreciation for that.

 

As far as the apartheid label that can't be applied to Arab Israeli citizens.

 

I understand its use in reference to the west bank.

Then you don't know, for example, that Arab communities in northern Israel are grouped in larger Jewish urban agglomerations that then have control over housing construction permits. Result: permits not issued for these Israeli Arabs, demolition if they build with no permit. Just an example of discrimination. This Israeli apartheid is not identical to the South African case, maybe worse! It's more blatant in the West Bank than in Israel proper because the rule of law, the Supreme Court, prevent a lot of these abuses from being applied in Israel. This could change if the "reforms" happen.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

No mention of human shields.

This has been used frequently in previous attacks on Gaza as an excuse to commit war crimes.

[placnx]

49 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

"so that if IDF is the culprit the people involved can be charged"       vey nice sentiment but Internation law has no teeth  nothing will happen good example Putin arrest warrant nothing happing.

Putin is welcome in North Korea, China, Syria. Where else?

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

Then you don't know, for example, that Arab communities in northern Israel are grouped in larger Jewish urban agglomerations that then have control over housing construction permits. Result: permits not issued for these Israeli Arabs, demolition if they build with no permit. Just an example of discrimination. This Israeli apartheid is not identical to the South African case, maybe worse! It's more blatant in the West Bank than in Israel proper because the rule of law, the Supreme Court, prevent a lot of these abuses from being applied in Israel. This could change if the "reforms" happen.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/

All Countries have building control regulations and permits are needed to make new buildings and people who ignore the building regulations have their illegal buildings knocked down .

   Those laws are not exclusives to Israel and Palestinians 

[placnx]

38 minutes ago, Morch said:

What is factually known is that there was an explosion at a hospital, resulting in mass casualties.

 

As far as I'm aware, Hamas did not provide any proof it was an Israeli attack. There's bound to be something - video footage, bomb shrapnel, or even a crater where the explosion supposedly happen. From what I've seen, there's none of that offer.

 

On the other hand, Hamas was able, within the hour, announce 500 deaths. There is no way they could have actually cleared and counted bodies, verified death, care for the wounded and so on within an hour. This part was obviously dodgy and PR move, rather than fact based.

 

Now, as for Israel deliberately doing this - slim chances. Not policy, and a bad move with Biden exactly on the way. Perfect timing for Hamas to blame Israel for it, though.

 

Then again, it could have been an error, a mistake, whatever. Could be. But in the many times Israel bombed the Gaza Strip over the years, there weren't actually many times hospitals were directly hit - and that with thousands (maybe more?) of sorties flown. So again, slim chances.

 

Israel claims the explosion was the result of an Islamic Jihad rocket misfiring, exploding prematurely, dropping on the hospital etc. While some of the usual suspects will have trouble accepting it, this happens all the time. On each and every occasion the Palestinians fire rockets at Israel, a significant number malfunctions, sometimes with very bad results. Last time Israel and the Islamic Jihad had a go, about 300 rockets misfired. During the present situation, the last figure I saw was 400.

 

It's expected that Arab countries will automatically embrace the Palestinian narrative on this, nothing new there - and even if it turns out Israel's claim is true, most won't budge. Some posters on here the same, probably. So far, it would seem that Western countries are more reasonable about this, waiting for findings and facts. I'll add that at least as far as the USA and the UK go, they have enough surveillance assets in place to get a clearer picture of what happened. 

 

This underscores (again) the issue of Hamas being embedded within its own civilian population, while denying them any protection (as in bomb shelters, or launching in a manner less risky for Gazans). Further, it is not unknown for Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to use hospitals and schools as storage facilities ('caught' at it by UNRWA even, on the previous round), place rocket launchers nearby and so on. Somehow, even though that's a clear violation of them international laws some here tend to disregard, minimize or excuse it.

 

I'd say wait and see, but expected that regardless of facts, the meme will stick.

Let's hope that international war crimes investigators have immediate access.

[Jingthing]

15 minutes ago, placnx said:

Then you don't know, for example, that Arab communities in northern Israel are grouped in larger Jewish urban agglomerations that then have control over housing construction permits. Result: permits not issued for these Israeli Arabs, demolition if they build with no permit. Just an example of discrimination. This Israeli apartheid is not identical to the South African case, maybe worse! It's more blatant in the West Bank than in Israel proper because the rule of law, the Supreme Court, prevent a lot of these abuses from being applied in Israel. This could change if the "reforms" happen.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/

I call B,S,!

Blacks in the US face discrimination and institutionalized racism but the U.S. is NOT an apartheid state based on that.

Neither is Israel as far as their CITIZENS.

Nobody said there wasn't discrimination.

You're clearly on a perverted agenda to attack Israel on anything and everything while at the same time making excuses for the Hamas terrorist scum. 

[placnx]

30 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

If Israel was bent on killing Palestinian civilians, the death toll would be, at the very least in the 5 figure range and upwards.

Assuming that it was an IDF bombing, the intent was to terrify people in Gaza so that they would flee. In 1948 a handful of atrocities were instrumental in getting 80% of the Palestinian population in today's Israel to flee to Gaza and the West Bank. As for "5 figure", this barbarism is not over yet.

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, placnx said:

Let's hope that international war crimes investigators have immediate access.

Fair enough but I would assume hard to get really objective judgements in a zone controlled by Hamas terrorist scum. 

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, placnx said:

Assuming that it was an IDF bombing, the intent was to terrify people in Gaza so that they would flee. In 1948 a handful of atrocities were instrumental in getting 80% of the Palestinian population in today's Israel to flee to Gaza and the West Bank. As for "5 figure", this barbarism is not over yet.

Come on man!

Do you actually believe that Israel would intentionally bomb that hospital?!? You've lost even a sliver of objectivity. 

[placnx]

10 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

All Countries have building control regulations and permits are needed to make new buildings and people who ignore the building regulations have their illegal buildings knocked down .

   Those laws are not exclusives to Israel and Palestinians 

Great, but in other countries permits are issued in most cases. Not the case if you are Palestinian in the instance cited.

[placnx]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I call B,S,!

Blacks in the US face discrimination and institutionalized racism but the U.S. is NOT an apartheid state based on that.

Neither is Israel as far as their CITIZENS.

Nobody said there wasn't discrimination.

You're clearly on a perverted agenda to attack Israel on anything and everything while at the same time making excuses for the Hamas terrorist scum. 

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/

[placnx]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Come on man!

Do you actually believe that Israel would intentionally bomb that hospital?!? You've lost even a sliver of objectivity. 

Let's hope that this can be investigated promptly so that the perpetrator and leadership, whichever side, can be held to account.

[Jingthing]

24 minutes ago, placnx said:

This has been used frequently in previous attacks on Gaza as an excuse to commit war crimes.

How do you propose that Israel meet it's very justified goal of taking out or least greatly weakening Hamas when Hamas uses civilian shields without civilian casualties? You aren't fooling me at all. You don't care one iota about Israel's very necessary goals. That or you would celebrate if Israel did what no other military in the world would ever do and go into every target street by street taking massively more casualties just to please anti-Israel extremists like you.

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

Great, but in other countries permits are issued in most cases. Not the case if you are Palestinian in the instance cited.

The other countries haven't even been named, so how can you possible say that that unnamed Country issues building permits in most cases ?

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/

There you go again.

Arab Israeli citizens do NOT live under apartheid. 

They do suffer discrimination. 

[Bkk Brian]

57 minutes ago, placnx said:

6000 bombs

6000 rockets landing in Israel

[Bkk Brian]

52 minutes ago, placnx said:

IDF is not a reliable source.

Says you...........lol

[Morch]

52 minutes ago, placnx said:

IDF is not a reliable source.

The claim that it was an IDF bombing is made by Hamas. Do you see Hamas as a reliable source?

 

[placnx]

6 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

The other countries haven't even been named, so how can you possible say that that unnamed Country issues building permits in most cases ?

Just a reasonable assumption. As for the situation in Israel proper here are two articles for your edification:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/12/israel-discriminatory-land-policies-hem-palestinians

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/real-estate/2023-04-11/ty-article/.premium/dont-call-it-a-housing-crisis-the-discriminatory-plight-of-israeli-arabs/00000187-526f-dde0-afb7-7e7f62cc0000

[Morch]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

We all know that Hamas started this conflict. The point I was maikng is that the 6000 bombs were dropped on residences including high rises, not military targets, before the evacuation order. Now we have 500 people killed in a hospital bombing and the meeting in Amman to discuss humanitarian access canceled.

I don't think all them 6000 bombs were dropped on 'residencies', though. At least not footage and reports available. Granted, many were - but that's expected when fighting a terrorist organization embedded within civilian population.

 

I will point point out that the bomb per casualty ratio does not indicate quite the intentions or motivations implied.

 

The hospital bombing is not proven to be Israel's doing, so far.

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

Just a reasonable assumption. As for the situation in Israel proper here are two articles for your edification:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/12/israel-discriminatory-land-policies-hem-palestinians

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/real-estate/2023-04-11/ty-article/.premium/dont-call-it-a-housing-crisis-the-discriminatory-plight-of-israeli-arabs/00000187-526f-dde0-afb7-7e7f62cc0000

Israel is a Jewish Country and its understandable that they want Jews to live on the land 

[Morch]

20 minutes ago, placnx said:

Assuming that it was an IDF bombing, the intent was to terrify people in Gaza so that they would flee. In 1948 a handful of atrocities were instrumental in getting 80% of the Palestinian population in today's Israel to flee to Gaza and the West Bank. As for "5 figure", this barbarism is not over yet.

Assuming it was an IDF bombing is a choice. Assuming it was deliberate is nonsense. Not with Biden already on his way over. Not with the way this war (and past instances) is conducted. You're pushing a false narrative.

 

As for the '5 figure' comment, I don't think countries and armies bent on genocide tend to much about or take their time. But again, that's part of the false narrative you adopted, so doubt common sense would make a dent in your bias.

[Morch]

33 minutes ago, placnx said:

Let's hope that international war crimes investigators have immediate access.

Let's not make disingenuous, out-of-touch-with-reality comments.

There's a very clear history of how these things go.